南方集体林区木材供给行为研究

利用2000,2003,2005年福建省木材生产村级数据,通过Faustmann模型和Cobb-Douglas生产函数分析框架,考察市场化条件下林农木材生产经营决策行为,评价不同因素和政策可能的影响方向和效应。实证结果表明,价格、成本、资源状况、贴现率及林业政策均对木材的短期供给产生重要影响。政策方面,对林地制度改革的效果给予肯定,对限额采伐政策持怀疑态度,超限额砍伐现象的存在可能使其完全失去作用。     

Plantation Slavery and Economic Development in the Antebellum Southern United States

The relationship of plantation slavery in the Americas to economic and social development in the regions it was dominant has long been a subject of scholarly debate. The existing literature is divided into two broad interpretive models –'planter capitalism' (Fogel and Engerman, Fleisig) and the 'pre-bourgeois civilization' (Genovese, Moreno-Fraginals). While each grasps aspects of plantation slavery's dynamics, neither provides a consistent and coherent historical or theoretical account of slavery's impact on economic development because they focus on the subjective motivations of economic actors (planters or slaves) independent of their social context. Borrowing Robert Brenner's concept of 'social property relations', the article presents an alternative analysis of the dynamics of plantation slavery and their relation to economic development in the regions it dominated.     

Factors Affecting Spring Wheat Variety Choices: Comparisons between Canada and the United States

The demand for high-quality hard wheats has been increasing in the 1980s and 1990s. In this article, factors affecting the varieties planted of hard red spring wheat in Canadian producing regions and North Dakota are compared. Differences exist in the development and release of varieties, which affect the supply and quality of hard wheats produced. Wheat areas in the Canadian provinces are more con- centrated in the top variety than those in North Dakota. However, in recent years, there appears to be a tendency toward increased varietal concentration in North Dakota and less in Canada. Econometric models are developed to compare and contrast factors affecting variety choice. In Canada, agronomic factors including relative yields are significant variables affecting variety choice. In North Dakota, agronomic factors generally have less effect on adoption rates, but economic variables are important. Varieties in North Dakota and Manitoba have shorter life cycles and reach their maximum utilization by farmers earlier than in Alberta or Saskatchewan. The longer varietal life cycles and higher concen- tration of the dominant variety suggest end-use variability should be lower in Canada than in North Dakota. La demande de blé vitreux de haute qualité s'accroît depuis une vingtaine d'années. Nous comparons id lesfacteurs déterminant le choix des variétés de ble deprintemps roux vitreux dans les régions canadiennes de production et au North Dakota. On observe, dans les modalités de création et de mise au commerce des variétés, des différences qui influent sur l'offre et sur la qualité des blés produits. Ainsi au Canada, les surfaces emblavées dans la variété la plus recommandée étaient plus concentrées qu'au North Dakota, bien que, ces dernières années, la tendance semble s'inverser. Des modèles économétriques ont été construits pour comparer et confronter les facteurs jouant sur le choix variétal. Au Canada, lesfacteurs agronomiques, notamment les rendements relatifs, ressortaient comme les variables significatives du choix variétal, alors qu‘au North Dakota leur importance était secondaire à celle des variables économiques. Les variétés adoptées au North Dakota et au Manitoba avaient un cycle de vie plus court et atteignaient leur sommet d'utilisation plus vite qu‘en Alberta ou en Saskatchewan. La plus longue durée du cycle de vie des variétés et les plus fortes concentrations de la variété dominante indiquent que la qualité du grainproduit devrait être mains variable au Canada qu'au North Dakota.     

Interaction Effects among Labeled Attributes for Eggs in the United States

New labels for food products continue to be introduced in the United States. This paper estimates interaction effects among labeled attributes for eggs to investigate cases where affixing labels of “premium” attributes would indeed gain additional premiums in the U.S. market. A latent class analysis identified four consumer segments (Attribute Seekers, Price Checkers, Local Supporters, and Combination Responders). Several interaction effects were sufficiently large in magnitude to neutralize the main effects, but differently for each segment. While the combination of certified-organic with cage-free or local label yielded negative premiums in certain segments, the premium Attribute Seekers were willing to pay were considerable. Across all segments, preferences for locally produced products were robust singly or in combinations. Consideration of interaction effects and consumer segments are recommended for effective labeling strategies.     

Evolving Dynamic Relationships Between the Money Supply and Food-Based Prices in Canada and the United States

The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationships between the money supply and food-based prices (farm input, farm output, retail food prices) and shed some light on contradictory results in the literature by performing the analysis on two countries, testing and allowing for structural change, and decomposing long-run relationships in terms of speed of adjustment and adjustment amount. Money neutrality is rejected for all of the periods in both countries. However, some of the required conditions for money neutrality held temporarily in the U. S. This could be attributed to differences in policy-induced market signal distortions. In both countries, demand-pull forces have grown stronger, and the cost-push forces have grown weaker. In Canada, this is consistent with a growing and more concentrated retail sector exercising price leadership on farm input and farm output prices.     

The Demand and Supply of Norwegian Atlantic Salmon in the United States and the European Community

A simultaneous-equation model of the demand and supply of Norwegian Atlantic salmon in the United States and the European Community is constructed, and sensitivity analyses are conducted to measure the effects of changing exchange rates, the Norwegian supply of Atlantic salmon, and prices of North American Pacific salmon. Using monthly statistics from January 1983 through March 1987, the demand for Norwegian Atlantic salmon is found to be highly seasonal, and highly price and income elastic in the United States and the European Community. Chinook is found to be a weak substitute for Norwegian Atlantic salmon in the U.S., and frozen chinook, sockeye and coho in the European Community are also found to be weak substitutes for Norwegian Atlantic salmon. Nous avons élaboré un modéle à équations simultanées de la demande et de ?approvisionnement pour le saumon de ?Atlantique provenant de Norvège, aux États-Unis et dans la Communauté européenne, et nous avons precédé à des analyses de sensibilité afin de mesurer les effets de la variation des taux de change, des approvisionnements de saumon de ?Atlantique de Norvège et des prix du saumon du Pacifique provenant ?Amérique du Nord. En nous fondant sur les statistiques mensuelles recueillies de Janvier 1983 à mars 1987, nous avons constaté que la demande de saumon de ?Atlantique provenant de Norvège est extrêmement saisonnière et qu'elle est élastique par rapport aux prix et aux revenus, aux États-Unis et dans la Communauté européenne. Le saumon quinnat (chinook) s'est avéré un piètre produit de remplacement du saumon de ?Atlantique provenant de Norvège dans la Communauté européenne.     

On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation

This article develops a two-factor real options model of the harvesting decision over infinite rotations assuming a known stochastic price process and using a rigorous Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman methodology. The harvesting problem is formulated as a linear complementarity problem that is solved numerically using a fully implicit finite difference method. This approach is contrasted with the Markov decision process models commonly used in the literature. The model is used to estimate the value of a representative stand in Ontario's boreal forest, both when there is complete flexibility regarding harvesting time and when regulations dictate the harvesting date.     

Away-from-Home and At-Home Beef Consumption in the United States

Logit models are developed to measure the effect of socioeconomic and demographic factors on the probability of consuming beef in the United States. The analyses are done in both the away from home and at home markets using the 1987-88 National Food Consumption Survey of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Factors that significantly affect the likelihood of eating beef include: race, seasonality, urbanization, ethnicity, household size, sex, age, and income.     

Economics and Prescribed Fire Law in the United States

Prescribed burning is increasingly recognized as a useful but risky land management and conservation tool. Common law relating to prescribed fire is generally predicated on negligence rules. However, virtually all states also have statutory law specifying liability rules or criminal penalties for prescribed burning, and the laws in many states have been changing substantially in recent years. We develop an economic model of the incentive and welfare effects of prescribed burning, where both the burner and potential victims of escaped fires can reduce expected damage with precautionary effort. The model provides implications regarding the comparative advantages of strict liability versus negligence rules. We then examine the characteristics and geographic distribution of prescribed fire liability law in the United States in the context of the model. Specifically, we discuss possible economic underpinnings of the recent emergence of statutes in southeastern states that are more supportive of prescribed fire use, despite its associated risks.     

东北、内蒙古地区木材供需状况的实证研究

研究了近年来中国东北、内蒙古地区木材供需的发展状况。2005年该区域的木材供给量为4 066.91万m3,其中区域内木材产量占木材总供给量的67%,进口木材占总供给量的33%。2005年区域木材需求量为3 986.57万m3,其中满足区域内的需求占48%,满足区域外的需求占32%,满足国外的需求占20%。实证研究表明:东北、内蒙古地区的木材供给能够满足本地区及区域外甚至出口的需求,如果不考虑区域外及国外的需求,仅东北、内蒙古地区的木材产量也还是能够满足本地区经济建设需求的。     

Consumer Welfare and the Livestock Economy in the United States

This paper analyzes the responsiveness of the U.S. meal and poultry economy to government policies and other exogenous shocks. In particular, it focuses on the measurement of changes to consumer welfare. An explicit econometric model represents the supply of fed beef, non-fed beef, pork, and poultry. The interaction between the livestock and feed grain markets is captured by an econometric model of the supply and demand for corn. Consumers are represented by a complete system of consumer demand equations. The model is used for a partial analysis of the welfare effects of an actual agricultural policy decision – the sale of large quantities of grains to the Soviet Union in the third quarter of 1972. The loss to consumers that is attributable to the increased grain exports did not reach its maximum until the second quarter of 1975. It is estimated that from 1973 to 1975 consumers suffered a reduction of meat consumption that they valued at $4.5 billion (U.S.). Furthermore, the effects of grain exports proved far larger than the losses due to the poor harvests of 1973 and 1974. Finally, attempts to shelter consumers from the effects of the increased corn exports, either by increased beef imports or increased grain price supports, would have had little success in compensating for the welfare loss actually suffered. Ce papier fail ?analvse de la réponse des secleurs de ?économie quant au bétail et à la volatile aux Flats-Unis, leur reponse à la politique gouvernementale et à?aulres coups exterieurs. En particulier, ce papier se concentre sur la mésure des changements au bien-étre des consommateurs. Un modèle économélrique qui est explicite représente ?approvisionnement du boeuf brouiè, du boeuf non-broutè, du pore el de la volatile. Lcar;action réciproque entre le marché de bélail et ie marché de grains est monlré par un modèle economelrique de ?offre et de la demande pour mats. Un système des équations représente la demande des consommateurs. On utilise le modèle pour ohtenir une analyse parlielle des effeis en ce qui concerne le bien-étre des consommateurs par suite ?une décision faite ?une politique agricole – celle de la vente de grandes quantités de grains à?Union soviétique au troisième quartier de ?année 1972. Laperte aux consommateurs qui est imputable aux exportations augmentées de grain n'apas alteinl son maximum jusqu'au deuxième quartier de 1975. On a eslimé que de 1973 à 1975 les consommateurs ont essuyé une réduction de la consommation de viande qu'ils ont evaluée à$4.5 milliard (en dollars des Etats-Unis). En outre, les effeis des exponations de grain se sont révélés bien grands que les effets des moissons maigres de 1973 el 1974. Finalement, des efforts de protéger les consommateurs contre les effets des exportations augmentees de maìs, ou par des importations augmentees de boeufou par augmenter le soutien pour le prix du grain auraient eu peu de succès à remplacer les pertes en fait essuyées.     

Employing resilience in the United States Forest Service

The concept of resilience has permeated the discourse of many land use and environmental agencies in an attempt to articulate how to develop and implement policies concerned with the social and ecological dimensions of natural disturbances. Several distinct definitions of resilience exist, each with its own concepts, focus and contexts related to land use policy and management. This often makes understanding the inherent objectives of policies and related principles challenging. The United States Forest Service (USFS) is one example where ambiguity and uncertainty surrounding the use of resilience permeates the content of documents in various areas of the agency. The objective of this paper is to investigate how the USFS employs the term resilience as a means to communicate strategies for managing forest lands. We perform a content analysis of 121 USFS documents including budgetary justification reports, research findings (i.e., journal articles, book chapters and technical reports), public releases, and newsletters to analyze both the rise and specific use of the term resilience in the USFS. Our analysis, which is guided by definitions of resilience in the social-ecological systems literature, reveals that the ambiguity surrounding the use of resilience in the academic literature is reflected in the content of USFS documents. However, we also find that often criticized versions of resilience (namely engineering resilience) are minimally employed by the USFS, and instead the agency focuses on the notion of ecological resilience in which natural disturbances are seen as an important component of the landscape. In some cases, the USFS employs notions of social-ecological resilience, however, the extent to which specific components of social-ecological resilience are integrated into management strategies appears minimal. The findings from this study suggest that clarity regarding the type and function of resilience needs to improve in USFS documents, and that the agency should evaluate the existing question in the SES literature of resilience of what to what?     

美国乡村旅游发展

美国乡村近一个世纪以来一直经历着急剧的变化,这在二战后尤其如此。全球化及美国经济重组使传统的乡村经济活动如农业,林业及煤矿业竞争力下降,乡村旅游就成为乡村经济复苏及经济多样化的一个重要且有效的手段。在参阅相关文献的基础上,概括和分析了美国乡村旅游发展的历程和原因,以及乡村旅游发展对社区的影响等,以期对中国乡村旅游的发展、管理和研究能起到一定的借鉴作用。     

集体林区林权制度改革对木材供给影响的实证分析

首先用probit模型对林农参与集体林区林权制度改革的激励因素进行了探讨,之后应用双重差分模型(DID)和处理效应(TE)方法深入分析了林权制度改革对木材供给行为的影响。研究结果证实,由于赋予林农更加完全和稳定的林地经营权和收益权,林权改革显著增加了木材的采伐量,对木材市场的供给起到了积极的促进作用,但对于改革前后产权制度变化不明显的竹林则不存在显著影响,同时提出要进一步分析林权改革给林农福利和森林资源带来的影响,还需更加长期的观察和研究。     

Demand Elasticities for Fresh Vegetables in the United States

Abstract

Demand elasticities at retail level for eight major fresh vegetables in the United States were estimated with the Almost Ideal Demand System using annual data over the period 1960-1993. Results show that the demand for fresh vegetables was generally inelastic with respect to changes in own prices, and cross-price effects for most fresh vegetables were negligible. Furthermore, the study suggests demands for carrots, cucumbers, lettuce, peppers, and onions were highly elastic with respect to changes in expenditures on fresh vegetables. However, expenditure elasticities for celery and tomatoes were found to be inelastic, while the expenditure elasticity for cabbages was negative but statistically insignificant.