Structural Change of European Dairy Farms – A Cross‐Regional Analysis

Previous analyses of dairy farm structural change focus on the variation over time in one or a small number of regions. We present an EU‐15 cross‐regional analysis of the development of dairy farm numbers in different size classes over the period 1995–2005. Our purpose is to measure the explanatory relevance and effect of key factors suggested in the theoretical and empirical literature on structural change. Apart from the unprecedented scope, the underlying Markov chain analysis also contributes by combining observed transitions in micro (farm level) data with macro (sector level) data on farm numbers. Results show widely significant impacts of most considered explanatory variables, but also reflect and illuminate the complexity of the underlying processes.     

Structural Change and Policy Reform in the UK Dairy Sector

Estimation of a cost function for a representative sample of UK dairy producers allows future re‐structuring of the industry to be simulated using a model which incorporates producers' differential costs and milk prices. Consideration is also given to reductions in producer prices and to the introduction of an A/B quota system. The results indicate that, despite the history of quota trading in the UK, there is considerable scope for further restructuring in the industry to take advantage of differential incentives between producers. It is also projected that UK milk supply would increase if quota restrictions were removed.     

The Cost Structure of Ontario Dairy Farms: A Microeconometric Analysis

The cost structure of Ontario dairy farms is studied through a multiproduct hybrid-translog cost function, extended to include farm-specific structural characteristics and estimated using farm-level data. The regularity conditions of monotonicity in output quantities and input prices and concavity in input prices are satisfied at the median point. Parametric tests show that input-output separability is rejected while nonjointness is not, and seven out of twelve farm-specific characteristics significantly affect costs. Derived input demands are inelastic to own-price changes, and all inputs are net substitutes. Evidence is provided on the existence of increasing long-run returns to scale for a wide range of output levels. The results of the estimated cost function substantiate the claim of economic rents deriving from the milk pricing system. La structure des coûts des producteurs laitiers en Ontario est etudiée au moyen ?une fonction de coûts hybride-translog qui inclue plusieurs produits. La fonction de coûts est étendue de manière à inclure des caracteristiques structurelles de ferme, et est estimée à partir de données de ferme. Les conditions régulieres de monotonicité au niveau de la production et du prix des intrants, et de concavité au prix des intrants, sont satisfaites à la médiane. Des tests paramétriques montrent que la séparabilité intrant-extrant est rejectée tandis que la non association ne ?est pas. Sept des douze caractéristiques de ferme affectent les coûts de façon significative. Les demandes derivées ?intrants sont inélastiques par rapport au changement de leur propre prix et tous les intrants sont des substituts nets. On a prouvé ?existence ?économie ?échelle croissante à long terme pour une grande variété de niveaux de production. Les résultats obtenus supportent ?idée que le systeme de prix dans ?industrie laitière permet des rentes économiques.     

Relative Technical Efficiency: Data Envelopment Analysis and Quebec's Dairy Farms

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to explore the distribution of productive efficiency across some Quebec dairy farms in 1988 and 1989. Sensitivity checks are made with respect to sample size and herd size. Overall, efficiency scores from the DEA approach are reasonably informative, but some troublesome issues need to be resolved L'analyse par enveloppement des données (AED) est utilisée afin d'explorer la distribution de l'effica-cité relative à travers un échantillon de fermes laitières du Québec en 1988 et 1989. Les résultats sont comparés par rapport à la grandeur de l'échantillon et à la grosseur des troupeaux. Globalement. les résultats de l'AED sont interessants et informatifs, mais ils révélent quelques problèmes qui devront être étudiéis de plus près     

财政支农政策与中国农业增长：因果与结构分析

本文在运用格兰杰因果检验法验证财政支农支出增长和农业产出增长之间关系的基础上 ,运用生产函数测定财政支农各类支出的边际产出效应 ,并从财政支农政策制定和执行两方面探讨财政支农支出结构偏差的原因。主要的研究结论是 :农业公共产品投入不足极大地制约着中国农业可持续增长的潜力 ;为最大限度地提高财政支农资源的配置效率 ,必须大幅度增加农业科技投入 ,适度增加农业基础设施投入 ,压缩农业事业费支出 ,并在政策层面上进一步改革和完善财政支农政策的制定和执行机制。     

Cost Efficiency for Alberta and Ontario Dairy Farms: An Interregional Comparison

In this study, two non-homothetic translog stochastic meta-frontier cost functions—with and without local concavity imposed—are estimated using a nonlinear maximum likelihood estimation procedure to compare the cost efficiency of Alberta and Ontario dairy farms for the period 1984–96. The resulting cost efficiency estimates are not very sensitive to whether or not curvature is imposed. In contrast, the properties of the cost and input demand functions (e.g., elasticities) are sensitive to imposition of local concavity during estimation. The implication is that if an inappropriate model that does not satisfy the properties required by the economic theory is used, the estimated input demand functions may not be reliable. Average cost efficiency for the pooled sample, with local concavity imposed, is approximately 89%. This suggests some potential for improved performance in the sector. The results also suggest that Ontario dairy farms may be more cost efficient than Alberta dairy farms, but the statistical evidence is inconclusive.     

Uncertain Land Availability and Investment Decisions: The Case of Dutch Dairy Farms

Within the EU, uncertainty about the possibility of acquiring land can be quite significant for individual farmers in sectors like dairy farming. Farm‐level investment decisions are commonly made ex‐ante, when the farmer is not certain about the possibility of purchasing land. This possibility is realised only in a future period. In this paper, we have developed and applied a simple two‐period model in which a profit‐maximising farmer, facing uncertainty about the possibility of acquiring land, has to choose the optimal mix of capital (buildings) investment and land endowment. We illustrate the model using data from Dutch dairy farms.     

Climate Change,Crop Selection and Agricultural Revenue in Ghana: A Structural Ricardian Analysis

We apply a Structural Ricardian Model (SRM) to farm‐level data from Ghana for seven principal food crops in order to model the factors which influence farmers' decisions about which food crops to grow and the revenue conditional on these choices. Our application of the SRM incorporates a flexible functional form to allow for the possibility that the effects of temperature and rainfall may not be linearly separable. We use this model as a basis for simulations of the effects of climate change. These simulations suggest that extreme climate change will lead to a significant reduction in the average net revenue per hectare from maize, which accounts for over half of current food production. Across a range of climate change scenarios, there is also substantial substitution of maize for heat‐tolerant millet, and a reduction in the cultivation of other crops. Under most of the climate change scenarios that we consider, these results imply a substantial reduction in the aggregate value of agricultural production, since millet is the lowest‐value crop.     

我国乳业成长的阶段性分析及政策取向

本文运用产业成长的生命周期理论,在借鉴发达国家乳业成长经验的基础上,对我国乳业成长的阶段性做出判断,认为我国乳业总体上仍处于产业扩张阶段,但从乳业内部产品结构演化趋势看,目前我国乳业处于液态奶主导阶段,而奶粉已经处于产品生命周期的成熟阶段,发酵乳和干酪制品将是我国乳品市场新的消费热点,并据此提出了政府加强乳业宏观调控和乳品企业产品创新的政策建议。     

Heterogeneity of Long‐run Technical Efficiency of German Dairy Farms: A Bayesian Approach*

In parametric efficiency studies, two alternative approaches exist to provide an estimate of the long‐run efficiency of firms: the dynamic stochastic frontier model and the generalised true random‐effects model. We extend the former in order to allow for heterogeneity in the long‐run technical efficiency of firms. This model is based on potential differences in firm‐specific characteristics and in firms’ inefficiency persistence. The model is applied to an unbalanced micro‐panel of German dairy farms over the period 1999 to 2009. Estimation of long‐run technical efficiency and inefficiency persistence is based on an output distance function representation of the production technology and estimated in a Bayesian framework. The results suggest that heterogeneity in long‐run technical efficiency of farms is mostly attributed to discrepancies in farm‐specific factors rather than differences in farms’ inefficiency persistence. Farm size is positively related to long‐run technical efficiency while subsidies exert a negative effect on the long‐run technical efficiency of farms. Inefficiency persistence is found to be very high, but heterogeneity in this persistence is low.     

提高农产品竞争力:理论、现状与政策建议

我国加入世贸之后，在国际竞争日益激烈的背景下，为了抓住机遇，迎接挑战，促进发展，就必须不断提高我国产品的国际竞争力。为此，需要全面理解竞争力的构成要素，研究我国目前的差距，采取有针对性的改进措施。     

美国的扶农政策与农业生产率——基于二战后美国农业发展的实证研究

本文构建了一个关于美国农业生产率变化与各种影响因素之间相互关系的经济计量模型,并且利用美国农业的相关数据进行了估算,试图藉此阐释影响美国农业生产率变化的各种原因。笔者发现,美国战后50年来农业发展的经验表明,政府扶农政策对于农业增长意义重大,而且农场规模及农民外出务工状况等结构变量与农业生产率之间也存在着紧密的互动关系。     

A Decomposed Negative Binomial Model of Structural Change: A Theoretical and Empirical Application to U.S. Agriculture

We developed a single-equation decomposed negative binomial regression model (NBRM) of the U.S. farm sector to simultaneously evaluate structural changes in the U.S. agricultural sector and the strength of several economic forces that influenced the changes in farm structure during the 1960–96 period. We found all these forces reinforced economic incentives to increase the size and decrease the number of small farms. Only agricultural programs and machinery prices countered these forces.
Nous avons élaboré un modèle de régression binomiale négative (NBRM) décomposéàéquation unique pour le secteur agricole des États-Unis afin d'évaluer simultanément les changements structurels de ce secteur ainsi que la puissance de plusieurs forces économiques qui ont influencé les changements de structure des exploitations agricoles au cours de la période 1960–96 . Nous avons conclu que toutes ces forces ont renforcé les stimulants économiques en faveur d'une augmentation de la taille des exploitations et d'une diminution du nombre de petites exploitations. Seuls les programmes agricoles et le prix de la machinerie ont contrecarré ces forces .     

区域经济发展与我国农业政策

区域经济理论表明:农村劳动力人口的减少是区域经济发展的一般规律,其转化的程度和水平是标志一个国家或区域经济发展程度和水平的一项重要指标,其主要推动力来自于农业和工业生产在技术方面的不同要求和劳动力收入的不同预期。因此,政策的制定必须符合经济运转的内在机理、减少农业资本流动的限制性、发挥区域经济的聚集作用、加大农村人力资本的投入等,以促进区域经济发展。     

中国的农业遗产研究:进展与变化

当前中国农业遗产的保护与开发正在不断升温,社会各界关注日增,同时也对农业遗产研究提出了更高的要求。本文首先对中国的农业遗产的概念进行了界定,回顾了中国农业遗产研究兴起的历史背景与各阶段主要特征。在此基础上阐述了近年来中国农业遗产研究在研究重心、研究方法和研究领域等方面的诸多变化,肯定其卓越成果,并指出今后的农业遗产研究不仅应进一步丰富其研究内容、拓展其研究手段,而且要努力从单纯的静态研究向动态研究转化,在关注社会民生与加强农业文化遗产保护和利用方面投入更多的力量。