Sustained Earnings and Revenue Growth,Earnings Quality,and Earnings Response Coefficients

We show that firms reporting sustained increases in both earnings and revenues have (1) higher quality earnings and (2) larger earnings response coefficients (ERCs) in comparison to firms reporting sustained increases in earnings alone. With respect to earnings quality, firms with revenue-supported increases in earnings have more persistent earnings, exhibit less susceptibility to earnings management, and have higher future operating performance. With respect to response coefficients, firms with revenue-supported increases in earnings have both higher ERCs and lower book value response coefficients, consistent with the implications of the Ohlson (1995, Contemporary Accounting Research 12, 661–687) model.JEL Classification: G12, M41     

Accounting Losses and Earnings Response Coefficients: The Impact of Leverage and Growth Opportunities

This paper investigates how accounting losses affect the relationship between accounting earnings and stock returns, i.e. earnings response coefficients (ERCs), in different leverage and growth categories. In a sample of NYSE firms between 1975 and 1990, the exclusion of losses improves the ERCs considerably. While the impact of losses on ERCs is highest in the subgroup including high growth opportunity firms, the exclusion of losses does not improve ERCs as significantly among firms with low growth opportunities. The results further support the hypothesis that the impact of losses on ERCs is different in different financial leverage subgroups. The measured increase in ERCs is most significant among the least levered firms. The observation that the impact of losses on ERCs is related to growth opportunities and financial leverage is clearly observable also in different size categories. The effects of growth opportunities and financial leverage are also incrementally important with respect to each other. In general, the results indicate that the impact of growth opportunities and financial leverage on ERCs is clearly observable especially when losses and profits are analyzed separately.     

Earnings Response Coefficients and Dividend Policy Parameters

In a seminal paper. Ball and Brown (1968) documented a positive statistical association between earnings surprises and stock returns around an earnings announcement. They concluded that accounting earnings conveyed ‘useful’ information to the market. However, the question of how accounting earnings convey useful information is still being understood. Recent work on this topic has found that current accounting earnings aid investors and analysts in predicting future accounting earnings. Few studies, however, have examined the usefulness of current earnings for predicting other value-relevant attributes. A model by Ohlson (1989a) suggests that investors are also interested in the relationship between current earnings and future dividends. Ohlson's model is supported by empirical tests in this paper which show that the relationship between current earnings and future dividends is significant in explaining cross-sectional variation in earnings response coefficients (ERCs). A second result of interest is that information in dividends substitutes for that in accounting earnings. We find that dividend policy parameters reflect information contained in current earnings. These results add new insights on the information revealed through the analysis of ERCs. Consistent with logic presented here, a symmetrically opposite result is found with respect to dividend response coefficients. The informativeness of earnings (dividends) is found to be negatively (positively) related to the information content of dividends.     

Internal versus External Equity Funding Sources and Earnings Response Coefficients

Because of transactions costs andinvestor/manager information asymmetries, internallygenerated funds should be less costly than fundsraised by issuing common shares. This suggests thatas firms use more internal funds relative toexternal equity, their costs of equity capital willfall and the rate the market uses to discountunexpected earnings of such firms will be lower. Wehypothesize that (1) firms having a higherproportion of internal to external equitywill have larger earnings response coefficients, and(2) this effect will be magnified for high growthfirms since the disparity between inside informationand publicly available information about high growthfirms' investment opportunities is greatest. Wefind support for both hypotheses using pooled andannual cross-sectional regressions after controllingfor other determinants of ERCs. The results arealso generally robust to alternative measures of themix of equity funding sources and of unexpectedearnings and to consideration of other factorsaffecting the mix of equity capital.     

信息可靠性、企业成长性与会计盈余持续性

本文以我国2001至2006年期间上市公司为研究对象,延续FWY和RSST的方法,考察信息可靠性和企业成长性对应计利润持续性较差现象的解释力。我们采用经营资产利润率与经营资产现金获取率的均方差计量信息可靠性。研究发现,企业成长性越好,信息失真值越高;会计扭曲越严重,应计利润的持续性越差;信息可靠性越高(低),会计盈余持续性越高(低);应计利润和现金收益整体对下一期的会计盈余预测能力越强(弱),会计盈余持续性检验模型的解释力越高(低);应计利润较现金收益的持续性差,且这种现象不因信息可靠性高或低而改变。     

内部控制质量、盈余持续性与公司价值

本文从内部控制质量的角度探讨盈余持续性的一个动因,从公司价值的角度探讨盈余持续性的一个经济后果。我们基于有关的理论框架和前人研究成果提出两个假设:公司内部控制质量越高,盈余持续性越好;公司的盈余持续性越高,公司价值越高。我们基于2007-2010年A股上市公司的年报、有关公告以及股价等信息,选取了6648家样本公司,以无保留内部控制审计意见代表高质量的内部控制,用类似于Sloan(1996)等方法度量盈余持续性,用托宾Q表示公司价值。经验证据发现,公司的内部控制质量与盈余持续性正向关联,盈余持续性与公司价值也正向关联,支持了我们所提出的假设。这表明,我国上市公司内部控制管制初见成效,既有利于提高上市公司的盈余质量,也有利于公司估价。     

Dividend Changes and the Persistence of Past Earnings Changes

We examine whether the market interprets changes in dividends as a signal about the persistence of past earnings changes. Prior to observing this signal, investors may believe that past earnings changes are not necessarily indicative of future earnings levels. We empirically investigate whether a change in dividends alters investors' assessments about the valuation implications of past earnings. Results confirm the hypothesis that changes in dividends cause investors to revise their expectations about the persistence of past earnings changes. This effect varies predictably with the magnitude of the dividend change and the sign of the past earnings change.     

资产负债项目可靠性、盈余持续性及其市场反应

本文将资产负债项目的可靠性和盈余的持续性相联系,并探讨资本市场能否解读这种联系。首先,理论分析表明可靠性更差的资产负债项目导致盈余的持续性更低。其次对应计项目进行分类并评价其可靠性。最后,证据表明,更不可靠的应计项目导致盈余的持续性更低,并且资本市场没有充分预期到这种联系从而作出错误反应。这些结果说明,在财务报表中确认可靠性更低的应计项目会导致更大的成本,相关性的获得不应以牺牲可靠性为代价。     

大股东代理问题与上市公司的盈余持续性

利用2007-2012年企业集团财务公司与其关联上市公司之间签订的《金融服务协议》,本文构建大股东过度占款作为大股东代理问题严重的指标,考察大股东代理问题对上市公司盈余持续性的影响。研究发现,大股东代理问题越严重,上市公司的盈余持续性越差,上述关系在国有上市公司、成长性好的上市公司中更加明显。进一步研究发现,机构投资者能够有效监督大股东,缓解代理问题带来的效率损失,发挥积极的治理作用。     

Corporate Social Performance,Competitive Advantage,Earnings Persistence and Firm Value

In this paper, using a generalised valuation framework inspired by Ohlson, we show that corporate social performance (CSP) is value relevant and that, in particular, it appears to be associated with a higher coefficient on earnings. This could be attributable to either a lower cost of equity for these firms, or greater earnings persistence. We show that, once industry membership is controlled for, any cost of capital effect is minimal. Regression tests based on realised earnings confirm that the valuation effect is attributable mainly to greater earnings persistence in firms with higher levels of CSP. These outcomes are consistent with higher CSP conferring a competitive advantage on firms.     

Conditional Persistence of Earnings Components and Accounting Anomalies

We suggest that the failure of investors to distinguish between an earnings component's autocorrelation coefficient (unconditional persistence) and the marginal contribution of that component's persistence to the persistence of earnings (conditional persistence) provides a partial explanation of post‐earnings‐announcement drift, post‐revenue‐announcement drift, and the accrual anomaly. When the conditional persistence of revenue surprises is high (low) relative to its unconditional persistence, both the post‐earnings‐announcement drift and the post‐revenue‐announcement drift are high (low), because investors’ under‐reaction to revenues and earnings is stronger when the persistence of revenue surprises is more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings surprises. Also, the mispricing of accruals decreases substantially when the conditional persistence of accruals is high relative to its unconditional persistence, because investors’ over‐reaction to accruals is mitigated when the persistence of accruals is indeed more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings. Our findings also suggest that financial analysts’ failure to distinguish between unconditional and conditional persistence of revenues and accruals results in more biased revenue and earnings predictions.     

The Persistence and Pricing of the Cash Component of Earnings

Prior research shows that the cash component of earnings is more persistent than the accrual component. We decompose the cash component into: (1) the change in the cash balance, (2) issuances/distributions to debt, and (3) issuances/distributions to equity. We find that the higher persistence of the cash component is entirely due to the subcomponent related to equity. The other subcomponents have persistence levels almost identical to accruals. We investigate whether investors understand the implications of the differential persistence of the three subcomponents. Our results suggest that investors correctly price debt and equity issuances/distributions but misprice the change in the cash balance in a similar manner to accruals. Our tests enable us to empirically distinguish the “accrual” and “external financing” anomalies with results implying that the accrual anomaly subsumes the external financing anomaly. Our results also suggest that naive fixation on earnings is unlikely to be a complete explanation for the accrual anomaly. Our findings are more consistent with investors misunderstanding diminishing returns to new investments.     

Foreign Exchange Gains and Losses: Impact on Reported Earnings

During the period 1974–77 firms affected by Statement 8 of the Financial Accounting Standards Board dealing with foreign currency translation responded to the FASB's invitation to comment. In this study, the reported exchange gains and losses of firms that submitted comments to the FASB and a broad sample of multi-national companies are examined. There is limited evidence that FASB respondents suffered greater swings in pretax earnings as a result of FASB than did other multinationals.     

股权质押、盈余管理与审计师风险应对

基于2007—2018年我国A股1109家上市公司的数据,研究大股东股权质押、真实盈余管理与审计师风险应对之间的关系,探究真实盈余管理程度是否增强了大股东股权质押与审计师风险应对的正向关系。研究发现:大股东股权质押正向影响了审计费用和审计意见;真实盈余管理程度加剧了大股东股权质押后的负面效果,进而加强了大股东股权质押与审计费用间的正向关系,但对审计意见的影响不显著;进一步的研究发现:上期的审计费用反向助长了当期的股权质押率;存在大股东股权质押的上市公司,审计师出具非标准审计意见的概率会随审计费用的提高而加大。该结论扩展了审计师风险应对的研究范围及影响大股东股权质押的其他因素,对提高审计师风险应对及完善大股东股权质押政策具有一定的参考价值。     

The Behaviour of Earnings,Accruals and Impairment Losses of Failed New Zealand Finance Companies

This study examines the behaviour of earnings, accruals and impairment losses of failed finance companies in New Zealand. It draws on conservatism in the development of research hypotheses about accounting variables that are likely to contain clues to future failures of finance companies. The hypotheses are tested by examining the trend of earnings after tax (EAT), accruals and impairment losses of 32 finance companies that failed from 2006 to 2011. Data were collected from the annual reports of the sampled companies and the first reports of receivers of failed companies. The study finds that EAT and accruals declined, and impairment losses increased significantly in the last two financial statements prior to failure, when compared with other years. This suggests that changes in EAT, accruals and impairment losses may provide indications of impending failure.     

A Temporal Analysis of Earnings Surprises: Profits versus Losses

I show that median earnings surprise has shifted rightward from small negative (miss analyst estimates by a small amount) to zero (meet analyst estimates exactly) to small positive (beat analyst estimates by a small amount) during the 16 years, 1984 to 1999. I show that a rightward temporal shift in median surprise from negative to positive describes earnings, but neither profits nor losses. Median profit surprise shifts within the positive quadrant, from zero to one cent per share. Median loss surprise shifts within the negative quadrant from extreme negative (about -33 cents per share) to zero. I show that the median surprise for profits exceeds that for losses in every year. I document significant positive temporal trends in both meet and beat analyst estimates for both profits and losses, but I find a greater frequency of profits that either meet or beat analyst estimates in every year. I find a significant positive temporal trend in positive profits that are "a little bit of good news," and a significant negative temporal trend in managers who report losses that are an "extreme amount of bad news." My results are robust to the four internal validity threats I consider—namely temporal changes in: (1) analyst forecast accuracy, (2) the mix of earnings of one sign preceded by earnings of another sign four quarters ago, (3) the timeliness of the most recent analyst forecast, and (4) the I/B/E/S definition of actual earnings. I find that managers of growth firms are relatively more likely than managers of value firms to report good news profits. I show that when they do report positive profit surprises, managers of growth firms are more likely to report "a little bit of good news" in every year.     

财务重述公司盈余反应系数研究——基于中国上市公司年报财务重述的经验证据

GAO(2002)的研究报告指出,投资者对财务报告的信心是证券市场有效运作的重要保证。近年来,财务重述现象在国内外呈现出蔓延局势,国外一系列研究表明财务重述对公司价值产生负面影响,而比短期的市场价值受损更可怕的是投资者对重述公司的信任度大打折扣,对整个资本市场的信心下降。中国上市公司的重述现象也不容乐观,但是对于财务重述经济后果的研究相对较少。因此本文主要考察重述报告对重述公司的盈余反应系数的影响,通过理论分析与数据检验投资者对财务重述公司盈余信息的反应程度,研究发现重述公告使重述公司特别是涉及核心会计指标重述公司盈余反应系数降低。以期通过本文的研究为上市公司敲响警钟,并为监管部门对财务重述行为进行规范监管提供经验证据。     

证券投资收益的价值相关性与盈余管理研究

随着证券市场的发展,证券投资收益成为上市公司一项重要的非经常性损益。本文检验了2007年新会计准则下上市公司证券投资收益的价值相关性与盈余管理现象,研究结果表明:(1)我国证券市场能够区分营业利润与证券投资收益,并根据它们的重要性而赋予不同的估值;(2)证券投资收益具有价值相关性,但不具有及时性;(3)上市公司通过出售时机的选择对已实现证券投资收益进行了盈余管理;(4)证券投资采用公允价值变动确认损益的方式既提高了会计信息的相关性,又避免了盈余管理,是一种更好的证券投资收益确认模式。基于上述研究结果,建议交易性金融资产和可供出售金融资产的公允价值变动均确认为损益,并对其进行及时、透明的表外信息披露。     

会计师事务所规模与盈利反应系数

本文用盈利反应系数来测度证券市场对不同规模的事务所及其所提供的审计服务的反应.研究发现,投资者对"大规模事务所"中的"本土大所"的盈利反应系数并不显著较高,但是其对"四大合作所"的盈利反应系数则显著较高,这说明投资者认为"四大合作所"的审计质量高于"本土大所"的审计质量.亦说明要想赢得投资者的青睐,"本土大所"需要进一步增强自己的品牌声誉,在"做大"的同时要"做强".     

异质机构投资者持股对上市公司盈余持续性的影响研究

通过对我国A股市场数据的实证检验和分析,检验不同类型的机构投资者持股行为对公司盈余持续性的影响.研究发现,我国A股市场上市公司存在盈余持续性,并且现金流量的持续性要高于会计应计的持续性;机构投资者持股比例越高,公司盈余持续性越强;独立机构投资者持股比例大的公司盈余持续性较强,非独立机构投资者持股比例对上市公司盈余持续性无显著影响;机构投资者持股集中度越高的公司盈余持续性越强.