HOUSE PRICES AND CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY

I characterize how house price shocks affect consumption inequality using a life cycle model of housing and nonhousing consumption with incomplete markets. I derive analytical expressions for the dynamics of inequalities and use these to analyze large house prices swings seen in the United Kingdom. I show that movements in consumption inequality were large, that they correspond with the theoretical predictions qualitatively, and that the model explains a large fraction of the movements quantitatively. I demonstrate the accuracy of this analysis using an extended model's full nonlinear solution. Finally, accounting for house price shocks alters estimates of labor–income risks using cross‐sectional data.     

转变经济增长方式与增加就业的关系

转变经济增长方式与增加就业是我国目前面临的两大问题,二者既有矛盾又有一致之处。只有处理好它们的关系,才能使我国的经济再上一个新台阶。     

UNDERSTANDING ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Review of Explaining Growth: A Global Research Perspective, edited by Gary McMahon and Lyn Squire and Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment: The Collected Essays of Robert J. Gordon by Robert J. Gordon     

房价上涨与生育率的长期下降:基于香港的实证研究

本文将房价指数纳入新家庭经济学标准生育率方程中,运用Johansen检验与ECM模型对香港1971—2005年生育率、房价指数、女性劳动参与率、女性与男性实际工资年度序列展开协整分析,研究房价上涨对生育率的长期影响。研究结果表明:(1)生育率在长期中服从单位根过程,社会经济因素对家庭生育行为产生累积效应;(2)房价指数平均上涨1%,总和生育率将显著下降0.45%,该结论在一系列敏感性分析中保持稳健。我们的研究从实证上为新家庭经济学提供了来自新兴工业化地区的证据,这些证据与结论对中国在经济增长、城市化过程中人口政策的长期调整和住房价格的调控具有重要的参考意义。     

经济结构变化和经济增长

本文试图从生产技术角度构建一个多部门的经济增长模型,同时容纳Kuznets事实和Kaldor事实。模型经济由最终部门和多个中间部门组成,最终产品由各中间产品以CES函数形式生产。各中间部门的技术增长率不同,而这种差异引起经济结构变化,并导致中间产品的相对价格变化,进而决定各中间部门之间要素流动和产值相对份额变动。最终产品的技术增长率为各中间部门的技术增长率加权平均和,并随经济增长单方向变动,变动方向与中间产品之间的替代弹性大小相关。     

INSTITUTIONAL TRAPS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This article's point of departure is that low-quality institutions, concentration of political power and material wealth, and underdevelopment are persistent over time. Its analytical model views an equal distribution of political power as a commitment device to enhance institutional quality, thereby promoting growth. The politically powerful coalition contemplates relinquishing of its power through democratization, weighing this advantageous consequence against the limit on own appropriative ability that it entails. The possibility of two developmental paths is exhibited: with concentration of political and economic power, low-quality institutions, and slow growth; and a more equal distribution of political and economic resources, high-quality institutions, and faster growth.     

ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Recent contributions by Brookes (1990), Saunders (1992), and Inhaber and Saunders (1994) argue that cost-effective improvements in energy efficiency may, in the long run, lead energy use to grow more rapidly than it would in a world of fixed technologies. Since efficiency improvements may be viewed as a form of technological change that both reduces the effective cost of energy services and stimulates economic activity, energy demand may, under some circumstances, rise even as energy productivity improves. This paper examines this hypothesis using a simple model that distinguishes the roles of energy and energy services in production activities. In this model, improved energy efficiency can-not give rise to increased energy use unless: (i) energy costs dominate the total cost of energy services and (ii) expenditures on energy services constitute a large share of economic activity. Since neither of these assumptions is empirically plausible, the paper concludes that energy efficiency improvements will yield long-run reductions in energy use under the assumptions of the model.     

FOREIGN CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper examines the economic implications of institutional arrangements by which foreign investors are required to reinvest a certain percentage of their capital within the host country. Our analysis shows that foreign capital inflow can produce long-lasting economic benefits to the host country only when the foreign capital reinvestment rate is sufficiently greater than the host country's saving rate. In this case, the economy evolves into a unique steady state equilibrium, which is also asymptotically stable. The paper also presents several comparative static results regarding the responses of steady state capital-labour ratio and the proportion of foreign capital in total capital to changes in the population growth rate, the rate of capital depreciation, the host country's saving rate and the foreign capital reinvestment rate.     

企业家合约与经济增长

基于奥地利学派关于市场过程是一个"企业家生成过程"的理念,本文将企业家生成于市场过程的问题与企业家合约的缔结和执行问题联系了起来,采用数理分析的方法模型化了联体企业家合约的生成过程,并从企业家合约的生成中推出了经济增长的数理表达式。就企业家合约生成而言,创意者和经营者的结合形成一个联体企业家,创意者对剩余索取权的最优要求随自己对经营者才干的预期以及对经营者的监管效率的增加而提高,经营者、投资者对其资产(才干、财富)报酬的要求与信息对称程度、失败残值大小呈反向关系,而与资产价格指数呈正向关系。经济增长速度和创意价值、激励效率和社会诚信等因素呈现正向关系,而与资产价格呈反向关系。     

经济结构变化与经济增长

卡尔多事实描述的是发达工业化经济在短期内的现象,如果我们考虑欠发达国家,或者考虑工业化早期,卡尔多事实所反映的规律就会消失.一般而言,人均产出增长率与人均产出水平两者之间表现出非线性的驼峰形(hump-shaped)关系.该文认为,这种关系是由于经济内部结构的变化(即农业、制造业和服务业的相对比重变化)以及城乡劳动力转移和城市化引起的.进一步,该文提出了两种相互竞争的模型,一种认为经济增长由工业部门驱动,另一种则认为城市化是经济增长的动力.两种模型都与经济结构变化和经济增长的主要特征吻合,至于哪一个模型能更好地反映经济现实,则还需要进一步验证.     

经济结构变化与经济增长

卡尔多事实描述的是发达工业化经济在短期内的现象,如果我们考虑欠发达国家,或者考虑工业化早期,卡尔多事实所反映的规律就会消失。一般而言,人均产出增长率与人均产出水平两者之间表现出非线性的驼峰形(hump-shaped)关系。本文认为,这种关系是由于经济内部结构的变化(即农业、制造业和服务业的相对比重变化)以及城乡劳动力转移和城市化引起的。进一步,本文提出了两种相互竞争的模型,一种认为经济增长由工业部门驱动,另一种则认为城市化是经济增长的动力。两种模型都与经济结构变化和经济增长的主要特征吻合,至于哪一个模型能更好地反映经济现实,则还需要进一步验证。     

我国经济系统的结构因素与 经济增长的结构依赖

本文在运用系统工程原理分析各种结构的相互联系和作用关系的基础上,根据Cobb Douglas生产函数构建经济增长的结构依赖模型,并以我国各省市(区)作为实证对象,分析了2006年、2009年以及两阶段过程中各主要结构因素与我国经济增长关联关系,揭示了中国经济增长过程对各结构的依赖性。研究结果表明,产业结构、国内生产总值结构和国内生产总值项目结构是我国经济系统中的主要结构因素;我国当前产业结构没有对经济增长起到支撑作用,必须继续推进产业结构升级;提高消费率、劳动报酬率在促进产业结构优化同时,对我国经济增长有显著的促进作用;加强我国第三产业投资力度,能够促进经济增长;我国调结构的宏观政策初见成效。     

SENIORITY WAGES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH*

Economies that lack well‐developed markets for mobilizing household savings may, in some instances, grow faster than those that are financially more developed, provided that their labour markets are also characterized by seniority rather than spot wages. This occurs because of a Kaldorian redistribution effect in a model where households have finite‐horizons and where older workers, as an endogenous feature, have higher saving rates.     

外国直接投资与经济增长的关系及影响

从中国和其他23个发展中国家总量时间序列资料的分析中可以看出,国内生产总值与外国直接投资之间存在着相互影响、相互促进的互动关系。除经济因素以外,稳定可靠的组织机构和城市化的发展在吸引外国直接投资方面发挥着相当重要的作用,它们是促进经济增长的重要因素。     

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper studies the relationship between intellectual property rights (IPRs) and economic growth for a cross-section of countries for the period 1960–1990. The analysis focuses on effects of IPRs on growth using a quantitative index of IPRs. The paper finds that IPRs affect economic growth indirectly by stimulating the accumulation of factor inputs like R&D and physical capital. The positive effects of IPRs on factor accumulation, particularly of R&D capital, are present even when the analysis controls for a more general measure of property rights