Globalisation and Inter‐occupational Inequality: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries

How does globalisation affect inter‐occupational wage inequality within countries? This paper examines this by focusing on two dimensions of globalisation: openness to trade and openness to capital flows, using a relatively new data set on occupational wages. Estimates from a dynamic model for 15 OECD countries spanning the period 1983–2003 suggest that increased openness increases occupational wage inequality in poorer OECD countries as predicted by the Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson model, but for the more advanced OECD countries, we find no significant effect. The absence of the expected result for the latter category can be due to a rapid increase in the supply of skilled labour, to outsourcing of skilled jobs or because changes in the trade flows are too small to have any significant effect in those countries.     

Globalization and wage inequality: Evidence from urban China

This paper examines the impact of globalization on wage inequality using Chinese Urban Household Survey data from 1988 to 2008. Exploring two trade liberalization shocks, Deng Xiaoping's Southern Tour in 1992 and China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, we analyze whether regions more exposed to globalization experienced larger changes in wage inequality than less-exposed regions. Contrary to the predictions of the Heckscher–Ohlin model, we find that the WTO accession was significantly associated with rising wage inequality. We further show that both trade liberalizations contributed to within-region inequality by raising the returns to education (the returns to high school after 1992 and the returns to college after 2001).     

Who Supports Free Trade in Latin America?

This paper examines individual trade policy preferences across 17 countries in Latin America. The focus is on whether skilled or unskilled workers are more likely to support liberalised trade and on whether country characteristics, such as factor endowments, alter the preferences of skilled and unskilled workers. Based on the standard Heckscher‐Ohlin model and the Stolper‐Samuelson theorem, wage inequality in developing countries will decrease under free trade and unskilled workers will benefit. We find that on average skilled workers are more likely than unskilled workers to support free trade in Latin American countries. Separate country regressions reveal that this pattern is only statistically significant in 8 out of 17 Latin American countries. However, there are no countries in our sample in which unskilled workers are statistically more likely to support free trade than skilled workers, not even in the lowest skill‐endowed country in the sample. We also find that people from Latin American countries with higher GDP, faster growth, more cropland and a longer period of time since reform were more likely on average to support free trade.     

Does Trade Expansion Still Promote Employment in Korea?

According to the Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson (HOS) model, trade can be an important source of job gains for developing economies, but, conversely, result in job losses for developed economies. Empirical research to date, however, has provided mixed results regarding the direction and size of the employment effects for both developing and developed economies. This paper attempts to evaluate the employment implications of trade for Korea over the 1975–2000 period. Korea merits attention because it has successfully transformed itself from a developing to a semi‐developed economy during this period. Empirical results show that trade has indeed played an important role in enhancing job opportunities in Korea throughout this period, but its role as a job creator has diminished since 1985, suggesting that such a role could soon end, or even reverse.     

Carbon policy and the structure of global trade

Alternative perspectives on the structure of international trade have important implications for the evaluation of climate policy. In this paper, we assess climate policy in the context of three important alternative trade formulations. First is a Heckscher‐Ohlin model based on trade in homogeneous products, which establishes the traditional neoclassical view on comparative advantage. Second is an Armington model based on regionally differentiated goods, which is a popular specification for numerical simulations of trade policy. Third is a Melitz model based on monopolistic competition and firm heterogeneity. This heterogeneous‐firms framework is adopted in many contemporary theoretic and empirical investigations in international trade. As we show in this paper, the three alternative trade formulations have important implications for the assessment of climate policy with respect to competitive effects for energy‐intensive production (and hence carbon leakage) as well as the transmission of policy burdens across countries.     

South–South Trade and Skill Premia

Contrary to the predictions of the 2 × 2 × 2 Heckscher–Ohlin model, empirical evidence shows that the skill premium increased in some developing countries and decreased in others after trade liberalisation. This paper attempts to reconcile the empirical evidence with the theoretical predictions by introducing a model where South–South trade can produce the observed patterns of skill premia in the South. In this context, South–South trade expands the import range of the country that reduces the tariff. This increases the demand for and the cost of skilled workers in the other country. This also leads the country that reduces the tariff to expand its export range and reduce its import range. Therefore, the country that reduces the tariff experiences an increase in its export range, which leads to an increase in the skill premium. As the impact on the import range is ambiguous, it is possible that the other country experiences a decline in the skill premium. Thus, trade liberalisation between Southern countries can cause an increase in the skill premium in one and a decrease in the skill premium in another.     

The impact of international trade on emigration in developing countries

This paper studies how international trade affects emigration in developing countries. This is a new aspect as previous studies investigated the impact of immigration on trade from host countries perspective. However, there are also reasons to believe that trade may affect the propensity to emigrate in the home countries, leading to potential brain drain in developing countries, especially given the theoretical hypothesis in Stolper–Samuelson (S–S) theorem within Heckscher–Ohlin (H–O) factor-proportion model that more educated workers are more likely to emigrate due to an increase in international trade. When low-skill abundant developing countries liberalize trade, the reward of the scarce factor (skilled labor) is reduced in these countries, but it increases in the high-skill abundant developed countries. Therefore, skilled workers in the developing countries see a strong incentive to migrate to developed countries. To test this hypothesis, this paper utilizes a panel of 133 developing countries for the period of 1980–2010 and finds that high-skilled workers are more likely to emigrate with trade while there appears to be no effect of trade on low-skilled workers.     

Trade preferences and political equilibrium associated with trade liberalization

This paper, motivated by the so-called North–South problem in trade, analyzes ex ante trade preferences and the source of potential political conflicts regarding trade liberalization. Developing a dynamic extension of the traditional Heckscher–Ohlin model with imperfect labor mobility and tracking overall dynamic paths from the autarky to free-trade steady states, we demonstrate that in the presence of inter-sectoral migration barrier, bilateral free-trade agreements can be welcomed (opposed) by the majority of workers in a capital-abundant (labor-abundant) country, which is inconsistent with the welfare prediction by Stolper and Samuelson. This paper also proposes a numerical algorithm to solve for the entire transition path of the model under rational expectation. Our simulation experiments further reveal that preannounced and delayed implementation can facilitate a bilateral free-trade agreement by partially neutralizing short-run transitional gains and losses so as to persuade the losers to support the reform without affecting the beneficiaries’ trade preferences.     

North–South trade liberalization and returns to skill in the south: The case of Mexico

This study examines the effect of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), an instance of North–South trade liberalization, on returns to skill in Mexico. Mexico is abundant in low-skill workers relative to the US and Canada, and so, by the Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson trade model, NAFTA ought to have raised the relative earnings of low-skill workers, that is, lowered returns to skill in Mexico. Analysis of Mexican labour micro-data yields the finding that while returns to skill in industries producing tradeables have risen, ceteris paribus, since Mexico embarked upon trade liberalization by joining the GATT in 1986, this rise was less pronounced by 1999 in industries liberalized relatively rapidly by NAFTA, launched in 1994, than in industries liberalized relatively slowly by this phased trade treaty. This is considered evidence of NAFTA holding back rise in returns to skill, since it is plausible such a dampening would have been more marked in industries more rapidly exposed to trade with Mexico's skill abundant northern neighbours. Hence, this study suggests trade with developed nations may lower returns to skill in developing nations.     

STOLPER–SAMUELSON REVISITED: TRADE AND DISTRIBUTION WITH OLIGOPOLISTIC PROFITS

This paper investigates the distributional impact of international trade when goods markets are oligopolistic and firms partially pass‐through changes in tariffs into prices and factor costs for differentiated products. Trade liberalization raises mark‐ups and profit shares in the export industry and lowers them in the import‐competing industry, while Stolper–Samuelson effects on real prices of primary factors are attenuated or possibly reversed. An extended model shows how ‘offshoring’ (trade in intermediate goods) can potentially increase mark‐ups for oligopolistic producers of final goods. The analysis illuminates why business interests generally support trade liberalization policies today, regardless of their countries' factor abundance.     

The saving rate and the upgrade of the trade commodity structure in developing countries: A dynamic H–O model under an oligopolistic market structure

This paper constructs an oligopolistic dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin (H–O) model of a small open economy to analyze the relationship between the saving rate and the upgrade of the trade commodity structure. The analysis shows that the saving rate determines the trade commodity structure of a country in the long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, a developing country with a low capital–labor ratio in the initial state will change from exporting labor-intensive goods in the initial state to exporting capital-intensive goods in the long-run equilibrium if it has a higher saving rate, and this upgrade of trade commodity structure has a social welfare effect under an oligopolistic market structure. The effect of trade policy on the upgrade of the trade commodity structure is uncertain in our model; therefore, a high saving rate is the irreplaceable driving force for trade commodity structure upgrades in developing countries.     

On the connections between intra-temporal and intertemporal trades

This paper develops a new theory of international economics by introducing Heckscher–Ohlin features of intra-temporal trade into an intertemporal trade approach of current account. To do so, we consider a dynamic general equilibrium model with tradable sectors of different factor intensities, which allows for substitution between intertemporal trade (current account adjustment) and intra-temporal trade (goods trade). An economy's response to a shock generally involves a combination of a change in the composition of goods trade and a change in the current account. Flexible factor markets reduce the need for the current account to adjust. On the other hand, the more rigid the factor markets, the larger the size of current account adjustment relative to the volume of goods trade, and the slower the speed of adjustment of the current account towards its long-run equilibrium. We present empirical evidence consistent with the theory.     

Skill Upgrading and the Real Exchange Rate

This paper examines the effect of changes in the real exchange rate on skill upgrading in the case of Chile. Using plant‐level data from the manufacturing sector, we find that a real depreciation increases the share of skilled workers in the total wage bill in exporters but not in non‐exporters. This result suggests that depreciations or, more generally, increases in export profitability, may induce exporters to adopt more skill‐intensive technologies. This finding gives support to recent models of trade that highlight the possible effect of the real exchange rate on skill upgrading and wage inequality. This paper also finds that real depreciations increase plants’ export intensity, suggesting that skill upgrading for firms that are already exporters is the channel through which real exchange depreciations affect wage inequality.     

Developing country growth and developed country response

This paper makes a theoretical argument that growth in developing countries is likely to worsen the income distribution in developed countries and lead to a protectionist response that undermines the incentives for developing country growth. The model for this purpose is the two-cone version of the Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) trade model, in which countries have different factor prices even with free trade, and in which they produce mostly different groups of goods. In this model, unlike the HO model with factor price equalization, growth by the poor country expands the output of its capitalintensive good, which is also the labour-intensive good of the other country. Regardless of whether factors are mobile or immobile across sectors, this reduces the real wages of factors that are either intensive or specific in the labour-intensive sector of the rich country. The paper argues that this will then lead to the rich country restricting trade. This, in turn, will lower the return to capital in the poor country and reduce the incentive for further growth.     

Trade liberalization in asian newly industrialized countries

Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan are often perceived as having achieved similar trade patterns; nevertheless, their trade policies and patterns differ in fundamental respects. In this study, three models are considered and different aspects of the trade liberalization policies of these three countries are highlighted. The model of South Korea underscores the significance of product market concentration in restraining real wage growth and contributing to income inequality. The model of Singapore highlights the role of foreign investment in producing manufactured goods for export and in raising real wages. The factor proportions model of a labor-abundant economy adequately describes the Taiwanese liberalization. The model's predictions of rising real wages and no monopoly profits are consistent with Taiwan's declining income inequality.     

Trade-in-goods and trade-in-tasks: An integrating framework

We introduce a simple but flexible analytical framework in which both trade in goods and trade in tasks arise. We use this framework to provide versions of the gains-from-trade and the famous four HO theorems (Heckscher–Ohlin, factor-price-equalisation, Stolper–Samuelson, and Rybczynski) that apply to this environment. We extend our framework to accommodate monopolistic competition and two-way offshoring and to integrate theoretical results of the early offshoring literature.     

The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding‐Out Fear Warranted?

This paper examines how China's emergence as a major trading nation is affecting export performance of its East Asian neighbours. Following a stage‐setting overview of trends and patterns of China's export performance, it probes China competition in third country markets and emerging patterns of imports. The East Asian export experience is examined in a wider global context against the backdrop of the ongoing process of global production sharing. The findings indicate that the ‘China threat’ has been vastly exaggerated in the contemporary policy debate. China's rapid market penetration in traditional labour‐intensive manufactured goods has occurred mostly at the expense of the high‐wage East Asian countries, without crowding‐out the export opportunities of low‐wage countries in the region. More importantly, China's rapid integration into global production networks as a major assembly centre has created new opportunities for the other East Asian countries to engage in various segments of the value chain in line with their comparative advantage.     

Trade liberalization, wage inequality, and endogenously determined nontraded goods

We examine the boundary between traded and nontraded goods as a channel for trade to impact factor prices. In a two-country, two-factor, continuum-good model, tariffs generate a range of nontraded goods. A tariff reduction has a direct effect to expand a country’s import set and an indirect effect through terms of trade to expand its export set. We show that the export expansion can dominate the import expansion, raising the relative demand for the factor intensively used in production. The result is useful in explaining observed rising wage inequality in developing countries following trade liberalization.     

A many-cone world?

The breakdown of global factor price equalization, or a single-cone world, is a central concern in various fields of economics. This paper examines the empirical validities of the following two claims: 1) the multiple-cone Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) model fits better than does the single-cone HO model; and 2) increases in the number of cones improve the fit of the model. One of the contributions of this paper is that it focuses simultaneously on factor endowments, production patterns, and wage disparities across economies. My empirical results support the first claim but not the second claim. The results suggest that although the multiple-cone model performs better than does the single-cone model, the increases in the number of cones do not necessarily result in better performance of the HO model.     

Intra-industry trade of transition countries: trends and determinants

This paper analyses trends in different components of trade of transition countries. To explain the cross-country differences, the paper points out the important distinction between the determinants of inter-industry trade and intra-industry trade (IIT), and horizontal and vertical IIT. Using varieties of gravity models, it is shown that variables from Increasing Returns Trade Theory, such as scale economies, similarity of income levels, and number of varieties produced play important roles in IIT, especially in horizontal IIT, whereas factors such as comparative advantage, dissimilarity in income levels, and having more developed trade partners from Heckscher–Ohlin Trade Theory are crucial in determining inter-industry trade and vertical IIT to a lesser degree.