LOCAL DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT CASH TRANSFERS IN CHILE

Despite rapid economic growth and poverty reduction, inequality in Chile has remained high and remarkably constant over the last 20 years, prompting academic and public interest in the subject. Due to data limitations, however, research on inequality in Chile has concentrated on the national and regional levels. The impact of cash subsidies to poor households on local inequality is thus not well understood. Using poverty‐mapping methods to asses this impact, we find heterogeneity in the effectiveness of regional and municipal governments in reducing inequality via poverty‐reduction transfers, suggesting that alternative targeting regimes may complement current practice in aiding the poor.     

GROWTH, POVERTY, AND INEQUALITY IN LATIN AMERICA: A CAUSAL ANALYSIS, 1970–94

Taking advantage of consistent poverty and income inequality data for 12 Latin American countries between 1970 and 1994, we analyze the determinants of changes in the incidence of urban and rural poverty and in Gini coefficients over spells of years, stressing in particular the role of aggregate income growth. We find that income growth reduces urban and rural poverty but not inequality. We also find that income growth is more effective in reducing urban poverty if the levels of inequality and poverty are lower, and the levels of secondary education higher. We show that there is an asymmetry in the impact of growth on poverty and inequality, with recession having strong negative effects on both poverty and inequality. Since growth does not reduce inequality, economic cycles create ratchet effects on the level of inequality. However, post-structural adjustment growth is quite effective at reducing poverty, particularly if inequality is low.     

Growth,inequality, and poverty reduction in developing countries: Recent global evidence

The study presents comparative global evidence on the transformation of economic growth to poverty reduction in developing countries, with emphasis on the role of income inequality. The focus is on the period since the early-mid-1990s when growth in these countries as a group has been relatively strong, surpassing that of the advanced economies. Both regional and country-specific data are analyzed for the $1.25 and $2.50-level poverty headcount ratios using World Bank Povcalnet data. The study finds that on average income growth has been the major driving force behind both the declines and increases in poverty. The study, however, documents substantial regional and country differences that are masked by this ‘average’ dominant-growth story. While in the majority of countries, growth was the major factor behind falling or increasing poverty, inequality, nevertheless, played the crucial role in poverty behavior in a large number of countries. And, even in those countries where growth has been the main driver of poverty-reduction, further progress could have occurred under relatively favorable income distribution. For more efficient policymaking, therefore, idiosyncratic attributes of countries should be emphasized. In general, high initial levels of inequality limit the effectiveness of growth in reducing poverty while growing inequality increases poverty directly for a given level of growth. It would seem judicious, therefore, to accord special attention to reducing inequality in certain countries where income distribution is especially unfavorable. Unfortunately, the present study also points to the limited effects of growth and inequality-reducing policies in low-income countries.     

经济增长、收入差距与农村贫困

我国经济转型过程中同时发生的居民收入增长和收入差距扩大对农村贫困减缓具有不同的影响。本文在住户调查数据的基础上,讨论了不同时期经济增长和收入差距对于农村贫困减缓的作用大小,估算了不同年份经济增长和收入差距的贫困减缓弹性,并根据Shapley分解讨论了分项收入对贫困程度的影响以及分项收入不均等性的贫困减缓弹性。     

Living Decently

One of the reasons why poverty lines became popular at the turn of the century was their promise of a scientific technique that would dispense with moralising about poverty. We argue that a price paid in this quest has been an impoverishment of the richness of the notion of 'a decent life', the moral concept underlying poverty. In addition, poverty lines have in practice been more to do with inequality at the bottom end of the income distribution than with poverty. The purpose of this article is to rehabilitate the measurement of poverty, and to make it credible. We set out our preferred method of poverty measurement, and illustrate it using data from the Australian Standard of Living Study. A feature of our approach is to distinguish clearly between issues of inequality and issues of poverty. Questions such as who is on the bottom of the income distribution, whether this has changed over time, and how income levels of the worst off compare with the mean, are questions of inequality. As such, the answers tell us nothing at all about how the worst off are actually living. To answer that question, we require direct measures of consumption and of social participation. These measures are not as simple, but they provide us with knowledge about poverty that poverty lines have promised, but have not delivered in a credible fashion.     

中国城镇贫困的变化趋势和模式:1988—2002

本文利用中国家庭收入项目(CHIP)调查数据,估计了1988—2002年中国城镇绝对贫困的变化趋势。根据CHIP调查数据所绘制的贫困发生曲线表明,不论把绝对贫困线确定在哪里,在该时期内中国城镇贫困都在显著减少。1988—1995年,收入分配不平等加剧,但此后基本保持稳定。分析收入和贫困决定因素的多元回归模型显示,教育、性别和中共党员等特征扩大了收入差异。来自政府反贫困措施的生活困难救助对减少城镇贫困影响很小。城镇贫困的缓解几乎完全归因于经济增长而非收入再分配。     

MEASURING SUB‐NATIONAL INCOME POVERTY BY USING A SMALL AREA MULTIVARIATE APPROACH

The present paper proposes a statistical strategy for the analysis of regional disparities in income poverty. For the EU countries, information on individual income has been collected until now by the European Community Household Panel survey, which only yields reliable estimates for very large regions within countries. In order to obtain reliable estimates for some of the poverty indicators suggested by the Laeken Council at the sub‐national level, we suggest the adoption of a multivariate small area estimation approach which enables us to reduce estimate variability. We concentrate on Italy, the country with the lowest degree of regional cohesion within the EU. Results show that disparity cannot be reduced to the so‐called “North–South divide,” with the “poor” South separated from the “affluent” North, as both these macro‐regions display large internal differences in terms of both poverty level and income inequality. The strategy we propose could also be adopted in order to measure poverty in other European regions, using information produced by the new EU Survey on Income and Living Conditions, which is replacing the European Community Household Panel.     

山东省县域经济发展的时空动态研究

以109个县（市）为基本单元,从经济发展水平、发展活力和发展潜力三方面进行县域经济综合发展水平评价,并应用ESDA等分析法揭示1990-2008年山东省县域经济的时空动态。结果表明：山东经济快速发展,县域经济差异先扩大再缩小,但整体变化幅度较小;城市辖区的发展速度明显快于其它地区,平原区经济发展缓慢;鲁东和鲁中地区的经济发展水平高、提升速度快,经济发展重心向东北部偏移;县市经济发展空间自相关显著,高一高集聚区集中分布在山东半岛,低一低集聚区主要分布在鲁西南黄淮平原区和鲁中南山地丘陵区,东西差异仍是导致山东省内经济差异的主要因素。     

Short-term trends in China’s income inequality and poverty: evidence from a longitudinal household survey

In the past three decades, income inequality in China has increased rapidly relative to both China’s own past and other countries at similar levels of economic development. Using recent longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this article examines changes in income inequality and poverty prevalence between 2010 and 2012. Surprisingly, we find a modest decline in income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficients in the CFPS data. The urban–rural gap narrowed, with rural families enjoying faster income growth than urban families enjoyed. Income growth was greater for middle-income families than for families with either high or low incomes in 2010. By all measures, poverty was greatly reduced between 2010 and 2012. Two-thirds of families that had been poor in 2010 escaped poverty by 2012.     

Measurement of Changes in Economic Welfare in India: 1970–2001

This paper provides time series estimates of measures of economic welfare, inequality, decile class specific true cost of living index and poverty measures based on 20 rounds of National Sample Survey data for the period 1970–2001. It has estimated piece-wise Linear Expenditure System (LES) for very poor, moderately poor, non-poor low and non-poor high expenditure groups for rural as well as urban areas. Money metric utility for deciles are derived from the money metric utility function and social welfare index is constructed by aggregating metric utility of the deciles. Using social welfare index as well as real per capita consumption, the paper analyses the changes in economic welfare over the three decades. Using conventional measures, the paper analyses the changes in poverty and inequality during 1970–2001. The paper also provides estimates of the welfare effects of commodity prices.

     

The impact of financial development,economic growth,income inequality on poverty: evidence from India

This paper examines the impact of financial development, economic growth and income inequality on poverty in India from 1970 to 2015 by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure. The findings reveal a robust long-run relationship between financial development, economic growth, inequality and poverty. Results show that financial development and economic growth help in poverty reduction in India, whereas income inequality and inflation aggravate poverty. Empirical evidence of the Granger-causality test supports the presence of unidirectional causality from financial development and economic growth to poverty. Moreover, bidirectional causality exists between inequality and poverty. The present study provides evidence on which the policymakers may proceed with detailed investigation of how specific financial sector policies and interventions can be deployed as effective instruments for achieving favorable economic growth and income distribution. The study recommends that policies geared toward increasing financial development and economic growth should be adopted to reduce the high level of poverty and inequality currently prevailing in India.     

中国和印度不平衡发展的比较研究

本文考察了中国和印度近年来经济增长不平衡的情况,并分析了不平衡增长对不均等和贫困的影响。通过对家庭调查数据和官方加总数据的分析,本文发现增长存在不平衡——区域间、产业间和家庭层面上,这表明减贫工作进展不平衡,若增长更平衡,减贫效果可能更好;另外,收入不均等程度也在提高。本文探讨了增长不平衡及其应引起重视的原因。具体讨论围绕"有利的"和"不利的"不均等两个概念展开——不均等与不平衡增长对公平性以及长期增长与发展的有利或不利影响。我们认为,需要制定相关政策,保持有利的不均等——继续鼓励创新和投资,同时降低不利的不均等的程度,尤其是通过人力资本和农村基础设施投资,帮助贫困人口参与市场。     

Unfair inequality and growth*

Fighting against economic inequality is one fundamental social goal in the agendas of most governments. However, recent studies highlight that people actually prefer unequal societies, as they accept inequality generated by an individual's effort and wish to reduce only unfair inequality (generated by factors beyond an individual's control). This distinction might help to explain the fundamental unsolved question about whether inequality is good or bad for growth: unfair inequality (UI) could be growth-deterring, while fair inequality (FI) might be growth-enhancing. We derive a reduced-form growth equation from a stylized overlapping-generations model with human capital that includes FI, UI, and poverty. Then, using an instrumental variable approach, we show for alternative samples and inequality measures at the worldwide level that the estimated coefficient associated with UI is always negative, while the coefficient of total inequality increases when UI is included in the regression. Moreover, we find that poverty mediates this relationship because the higher the poverty rate, the smaller the impact of either type of inequality on growth.     

HAS MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE REGAINED ITS ANTIPOVERTY BITE?

From the mid-1980s to the early 1990s, several important studies examined the statistical relationship between the U.S. official poverty rate and overall economic performance. Most of these studies focused on the apparent break in this relationship beginning in the late 1970s or early 1980s. In this article, we present the results of our study of the relationship between macroeconomic performance and the poverty rate, using annual time-series data on macroeconomic variables, such as the unemployment rate and per-capita GDP growth from 1959 through 1998. Like these earlier studies, we also find that economic performance had a smaller antipoverty effect during the 1970s and 1980s than it did in earlier years. However, our estimates suggest that the weakened economic growth-poverty relationship may have been an aberration of this period and that the expected relationship of the 1960s has again been reestablished in the 1990s. This is true even after accounting for changes in earnings inequality over the entire period.     

The long-run impact of bombing Vietnam

We investigate the impact of U.S. bombing on later economic development in Vietnam. The Vietnam War featured the most intense bombing campaign in military history and had massive humanitarian costs. We use a unique U.S. military dataset containing bombing intensity at the district level (N = 584) to assess whether the war damage led to persistent local poverty traps. We compare the heavily bombed districts to other districts controlling for district demographic and geographic characteristics, and use an instrumental variable approach exploiting distance to the 17th parallel demilitarized zone. U.S. bombing does not have negative impacts on local poverty rates, consumption levels, infrastructure, literacy or population density through 2002. This finding indicates that even the most intense bombing in human history did not generate local poverty traps in Vietnam.     

人口流动对农村贫困和不平等的影响

本文通过对家庭、社区两个层面,以及妇女、儿童、老人等群体的研究,分析了流动是如何对农村的不同层面、不同群体发生作用的,它对于贫困和不平等有什么样的影响。分析认为,农民工流动的积极作用集中在与经济和发展相关的那些方面,如绝对贫困大幅度减少,生活水平普遍提高等;而其消极作用多反映在社会和文化方面,如社区凝聚力的减弱,功利价值观的泛滥等。同时,对于不同的地区、同一社区内的家庭、家庭中不同的成员,这些积极的或消极的影响的程度是不一样的。如家庭中权力关系的改变对于年轻人来说是积极的,而对于老年人来说就是消极的。从时间上看,流动在早期对于冲破城乡壁垒和消除原体制下的身份不平等是有作用的,但是在持续的流动中,不平等不但没有消除,反而扩大了。相对于非贫困户和年轻人,贫困户、老年人更边缘化了。     

Local Area Inequality and Worker Well-Being

This paper uses General Social Survey data linked to Census data to investigate the effect of local area income and income inequality on worker well-being. Others have found a robust negative correlation between reference group income and self-reported well-being. However, in many cases the reference group is defined as a large geographic area. This paper adds to the literature in two ways. First, it considers multiple nested geographic reference groups with US data. Second, it explicitly considers income inequality in addition to the level of income. It is found that both income and income inequality are positively associated with well-being at the census tract level, but negatively associated at the county level. Further, the effect of inequality on well-being decreases as income increases at the census tract and county level, while it increases at the state level.     

Education, corruption, and the distribution of income

We examine how the interaction between education and corruption affects institutional reform and economic development. While corruption reduces average income and education, education increases not only output and hence potential corruption rents, but also produces more informed electorates that better monitor government actions. We find that economies with intermediate levels of education remain in a poverty trap since the level of skills creates sufficient corruption rents but not enough monitoring. Economies with low or high levels of education can escape the poverty trap, and inequality plays a key role in determining whether this occurs through a change in institutions or an expansion of education.     

Inter-provincial migration and inequality during Vietnam's transition

Vietnam's economic boom during the transition to a market economy has centered on very rapid growth in some sectors and provinces, yet poverty has diminished across the entire country. With capital investments highly concentrated by province and sector, geographic labor mobility may be critical in spreading the gains from growth. Conversely, rising income inequality may be attributable in part to impediments to migration. We first use census data to investigate migration patterns and determinants. We then examine the role of migration as an influence on income ratios between pairs of provinces. The former analysis robustly confirms economic motives for migration but also suggests the existence of poverty-related labor immobility at the provincial level. Examination of income ratios between pairs of provinces reveals that the impact of migration on inequality can be either negative or positive. A robust inequality-reducing impact of migration is found for migration flows into provinces where most of Vietnam's trade-oriented industrial investments are located.     

Growth, income distribution and well-being in transition countries

We apply several well-being measures that combine average income with a measure of inequality to international and intertemporal comparisons of well-being in transition countries. Our well-being measures drastically change the impression of levels and changes in well-being compared to a traditional reliance on income measures. Due to low inequality and moderate income levels, socialist countries enjoyed relatively high levels of economic well-being. In the transition process, rising inequality and falling incomes have led to a dramatic absolute decline in well-being and a considerable drop in relative well-being vis-à-vis non-transition countries. We also find a close correlation between income losses and inequality increases. While the transition has been successful in expanding political and civil rights, our indicators suggest that most transition countries are still below the level of economic well-being of the late 1980s.
JEL classification: D6, O15, P27.