Trends in the Leisure Industry since the Second World War

This article seeks to provide an overview of the salient trends in the post-war British leisure industry. It suggests that the industry expanded at an unprecedented rate with the emergence of a range of new products, fed on the demand side by rising real incomes and reduced annual working time. On the supply side both employment and capital investment increased, but by far the most important trend has been the growth of industrial concentration.     

WELL‐BEHAVED PRODUCTION ECONOMIES

We show that production economies are tâtonnement stable if consumers satisfy the weak axiom of revealed preference. To ensure that producer supply decisions are well defined, we restrict prices in the tâtonnement so that positive profits cannot occur but do allow supply decisions to be multi‐valued. The model therefore permits linear activities and hence the technologies that admit capital theory paradoxes. The result thus shows that if the consumer side of the economy is well behaved then capital theory paradoxes are irrelevant for stability. Other features of the Walrasian general‐equilibrium model that have aroused suspicion (e.g. that a price below its equilibrium value may have negative excess demand and thus temporarily move even lower in a tâtonnement) may be a sign of trouble but also have nothing to do with capital theory paradoxes. We show that these phenomena arise even when there is no choice of technique and there is an aggregate production function.     

SCALE‐INDEPENDENT TECHNOLOGICAL‐KNOWLEDGE BIAS,HUMAN‐CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND GENDER INEQUALITY

We present a dynamic, non‐scale general‐equilibrium model with female and male human capital where Schumpeterian R&D and human‐capital accumulation are the engines of growth and gender wage inequality. Gender wage inequality is encouraged by changes in relative supply and relative demand of both human‐capital types. Relative supply restricts the levels of employed human capital. Relative demand is affected by the technological‐knowledge bias, which is driven by the price channel and is affected by human‐capital accumulation. In particular, the female‐premium per unit of human capital and per worker increases when the observed discrimination against women decreases or is removed.     

大学毕业生人力资本存量贬损及对策研究

人力资本存量贬损指人力资本承载者获得收入的能力、拓展收入空间能力的弱化或消失,其实质是承载者无法获得既有投资决策时点的预期投资收益。大学生在我国＂毕业即失业＂的事实属于人力资本存量贬损现象。初始投资决策失误,保留工资水平过高,投资收益回收路径过少是贬损的内因;经济不景气,城市人力资本市场的供给激增,人力资本市场供求错位,企业、政府及非政府组织对职业培训供给不足是贬损的外因。可通过个体的后续人力资本投资、构建高校就业助推机制和营造社会的就业援助氛围,形成个体、高校、社会的三级联动应对体系。     

The impact of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate on Mexican manufacturing exports to the US: A cointegration approach

This paper makes use of three econometric methods and three time intervals to evaluate the long‐term effects of several key variables on Mexican manufacturing exports to the US . The evidence across econometric techniques and sample periods systematically indicates that: (i) a real depreciation of the yuan‐dollar exchange rate reduces Mexican manufacturing exports by lowering the price of Chinese goods in the US market; (ii) a depreciation of the peso‐dollar real exchange rate generates a strong supply‐side effect due to the high import content of Mexican manufacturing exports, which ultimately leads to lower (rather than higher) sales in the US ; and (iii) external demand and labour productivity are positively related to manufacturing exports, whereas real wages are negatively related. Therefore, a falling external demand for Mexican manufacturing products or a real depreciation of the Chinese currency could, to some extent, be offset by increasing labour productivity faster than wages. These findings reflect two fundamental problems of the Mexican economy: (i) low investment in high‐quality formal instruction and proper training programs, which gives rise to severe bottleneck points for faster labour productivity growth and (ii) excessive reliance of the export‐oriented manufacturing industry on foreign suppliers of intermediate inputs.     

A Kaldor–Hicks–Goodwin–Tobin–Kalecki model of growth and distribution

This paper presents a Kaldorian model of growth that incorporates both Kaldor's theory of income distribution and his endogenous technical progress function. Growth is driven by demand‐side forces that induce supply‐side accommodation. The model incorporates Hicksian induced innovation; Goodwin Marxist style labor conflict that affects wage bill division between workers and managers; Tobin inflation effects; and Kalecki monopoly power effects. Unlike the neo‐Kaleckian model, a Kaldorian economy operates at normal capacity utilization. Monopoly power plays a role as a barrier to entry rather than determining the functional distribution of income.     

A two‐sector neo‐Kaleckian model of growth and distribution: Investment allocation and evolutionary dynamics

This paper focuses on the two‐sector neo‐Kaleckian model of growth and distribution that was developed by Dutt (1990) and challenged by Park (1995). We develop a variant of this model, focusing on the supply‐side to solve the overdetermination problem that was raised by Park. Finally, we introduce evolutionary dynamics to model the investment flows between the capital and consumer goods sectors. In this setup, the sectoral profit rates and the size of capital stocks wield an essential role upon the entrepreneur’s decision on which sector to invest in. This model is perfectly determined and it generates a stable evolutionary equilibrium over the long term.     

The NAIRU,Aggregate Demand and Investment

The nature of the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is analysed. The focus of our analysis is the role of aggregate demand and capacity in the context of the NAIRU. Two aspects of the relationship between the level of aggregate demand and the NAIRU are of particular significance. First, it is argued that the real wage–employment relationship based on enterprise decisions cannot be fully articulated without reference to the level of aggregate demand. Second, a model which allows for variable returns to labour and the notion of full capacity is used to explore the effects of shifts in the capital stock on the real wage–employment relationship. The model is specifically used to explore whether a sufficiently expansionary environment can generate sufficient investment to shift that relationship until the NAIRU is compatible with full employment. A number of limitations on the conclusions reached are considered, and the policy implications are briefly considered.     

The economics of the super‐multiplier: A comprehensive treatment with labor markets

This paper links the super‐multiplier to Keynesian macroeconomics, showing it to be the most Keynesian of growth perspectives. Next, the paper shows that the super‐multiplier is a micro‐economically coherent theory of investment and capital accumulation. Firms’ decisions regarding capital accumulation coordinate demand and supply growth in goods markets. The paper then explores the implications of incorporating the super‐multiplier in the neo‐Kaleckian and Cambridge growth models. Lastly, it shows how labor markets and unemployment can be added into super‐multiplier models to provide a comprehensive growth model that addresses Solow's (1956, Journal of Economics, 70, 65–94) labor market knife‐edge problem. Incorporating labor markets does not change the fundamental super‐multiplier result that growth is determined by the growth of autonomous demand.     

Autonomous demand,Harrodian instability and the supply side

A recent literature introduces autonomous demand as the driver of long‐run economic growth and as a stabilizing force that tames Harrodian instability. The argument is unconvincing. The stabilizing effect is modest for plausible parameter values and more importantly, it is questionable whether any components of aggregate demand can be viewed as autonomous in the long run. By contrast, models that include the supply side (the labor market) and/or economic policy can address Harrodian instability and produce level and growth effects that resemble those derived in the literature on autonomous demand.     

PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION CREDIT IN A CONTINUOUS‐TIME MODEL OF THE CIRCUIT OF CAPITAL

This paper offers a characterization of the content of production and consumption credit based on the Marxian circuit of capital and a distinctive approach to credit relations. All credit allocations make the same contribution to demand, sales and profit flows, and, consequently to the pace of accumulation. Production credit uniquely contributes to investment by borrowers. Consumption credit thus effects a form of leveraging of social capital, boosting profitability while strengthening productive constraints and financial risks bearing on credit relations. Systems with higher allocations of consumption credit experience lower scopes for growth‐enhancing credit extension, and face higher aggregate levels of credit risk than comparable economies.     

Growth,income distribution and unemployment in a two-sector economy

We build a two-sector general equilibrium growth model with capital-intensive consumption goods and a labour-intensive investment goods sector to investigate the coexistence of growth and unemployment. The model uses heterogeneity in saving behaviour, introduces an effective demand problem, has full employment of capital with input non-substitutability and shows that the aggregate labour employment is determined by available capital along with commodity market equilibrium. The long-run growth may not be balanced, and under biased growth, the level of unemployment may monotonically increase or decrease over time, or may first increase (decrease) and then decrease (increase). Such possible unemployment paths help us tightly define “jobless growth”.     

The capital structure and investment decisions of the small owner-managed firm: Some exploratory issues

In the burgeoning literature on small firm financing, the problem of underidentification in respect to the supply of, and demand for, capital has not been fully resolved. In an attempt to progress this issue, the current paper looks at some of the issues influencing the demand for finance in small firms which are owner-managed. The paper is primarily exploratory in nature and argues that a greater emphasis might usefully be placed on the cost of capital dimension in future research into small business financing. In particular, it is suggested that where the objective of an owner-manager is to maintain control of the firm, interdependent investment and financing strategies may be chosen to control the small firms cost of capital. This in turn indicates that the tendency for some small firms to invest sub-optimally and exhibit slower than average growth may not be primarily determined by limitations on their supplies of finance. On the demand side, it may well be that in addition to equity aversion, a suboptimal capital structure decision is made in the form of a reduced demand for debt. In other words, given the level of equity that an owner-manager chooses, debt may not be fully expanded to the capacity limit consistent with value maximisation.     

中国宏观经济运行总量指标互动影响的实证研究

本文利用Granger因果关系检验及建立向量误差修正(VEC)模型,从数量上对中国宏观经济运行总量指标之间的相互影响及关系问题进行实证分析,结果表明物价水平、经济增长和固定资产投资之间存在显着的相互影响。从短期看,固定资产投资与经济增长均对物价水平存在着滞后、正向的推动作用。从长期看,当期投资将在未来期内转化为供给,在反方向上促使物价下滑,因而固定资产投资在长期内对物价水平存在着一个显着的反向影响力。而且广义货币供给量通过固定资产投资与经济总产出的传导作用,对物价水平发生影响。     

基于人力资本背景下民工荒问题的对策建议

近年来,随着国内经济的发展,很多省市都出现了＂民工荒＂现象。从表象看,产生＂民工荒＂是因为需求增加、供给减少;从人力资本视角看,导致民工荒的主要因素是我国农村人力资本存量较小、质量较差,地域分布不均衡、积累起点低。较低的人力资本会对民工外出打工有一定的限制,较高的人力资本投资有助于劳动力外流。解决＂民工荒＂问题,政府应加大对农村人力资本投资力度：加大对农村基础教育投入力度,大力发展农村成人教育和技术培训,进一步完善农村医疗卫生保障体系;调节人力资本在不同地区的分配;加快提高农民工的待遇。     

The Trouble with Harrod: The fundamental instability of the warranted rate in the light of the Sraffian Supermultiplier

The paper argues that Harrodian instability is an instance of what Hicks in his book Capital and Growth (1965) called static instability, related to the direction (and not to the intensity) of the disequilibrium adjustment process. We show why such instability obtains in demand‐led growth models in which the ratio of capacity creating private investment to output ratio is given exogenously by the aggregate marginal propensity to save. We also show that Sraffian Supermultiplier model overcomes the Harrodian instability and that its demand‐led equilibrium is statically stable. It is explained that the latter results do not follow from the presence of autonomous non‐capacity creating expenditure component as such but from its presence within a model in which investment is driven by the capital stock adjustment principle (i.e., the flexible accelerator). Finally, we argue that, although being statically stable, the equilibrium growth path of the Sraffian Supermultiplier model can be dynamically stable or unstable depending on the intensity of the reaction of investment to demand. We then provide a discrete time sufficient condition for the dynamic stability of such equilibrium that implies that the marginal propensity to invest remains lower than the marginal propensity to save during the adjustment process, a modified Keynesian stability condition.     

WHY ARE GOODS CHEAPER IN RICH EUROPEAN COUNTRIES? BEYOND THE BALASSA–SAMUELSON EFFECT

In wealthy European countries consumer goods tend to be cheaper than consumer services. Usually explained in terms of cost developments and/or foreign‐trade considerations, this trend could also be a reflection of demand‐side regularities. Estimation of a cross‐country demand system indicates that goods are ‘necessities’ whereas services are ‘luxuries’. The relative price of goods responds negatively to the rising supply of goods and positively to the rising supply of services, with the former response being much stronger. If the supplies of both items were to rise at the same speed, the relative price of goods would have to fall.     

Again on the Relevance of Reverse Capital Deepening and Reswitching

Among the recent interventions in the capital controversy, the debate between Paola Potestio and Kurz & Salvadori has raised important issues. We agree with Potestio's rejection of the legitimacy of a value endowment of capital but we disagree with her dismissal of the relevance of reswitching and reverse capital deepening: these phenomena are very important because they undermine the demand‐side role of the conception of capital as a single factor. For the marginal approach to be plausible, this demand‐side role had to imply the stability of the savings‐investment market even in shorter time frames than those required by a complete adaptation of the ‘form’ of capital; this was taken by Marshall to authorize doing without a given endowment of value capital, which opened the door to the shift to the modern neo‐Walrasian versions of the marginal approach. With proof from Hayek, Hicks, Malinvaud, and Lucas we argue that a continuing belief in traditional time‐consuming marginalist disequilibrium adjustments based on capital‐labour substitution is the hidden reason why the claim often made by contemporary marginalist economists, that the economy can be assumed to be all the time on the equilibrium‐growth path, is not found patently unacceptable. The true microfoundation of DSGE macromodels is not intertemporal equilibrium theory, but the time‐consuming adjustment mechanisms on whose basis the marginal approach was born and accepted, and on whose basis monetarism was then able to re‐assert a pre‐Keynesian view of the working of the economy.     

WAGE POLICY IN AN OPEN‐ECONOMY KALECKI–KALDOR MODEL: A SIMULATION STUDY

This paper discusses a Post‐Keynesian model of income, production and trade. The one‐country, one‐sector model features Kaleckian investment demand, Kaldorian productivity and a labor market module based on a wage–price spiral. The model is first presented for a closed economy with exogenous real wages; second, for a closed economy with endogenous real wages; third, for an economy open to trade with endogenous real wages. Simulations with different calibrations show key characteristics of the model. Monte Carlo simulations over reasonable parameter ranges shed some light on the effectiveness of wage policies in open economies.     

RISK‐AVERSION,OPTIMAL LEVERAGE AND THE INVESTMENT–UNCERTAINTY RELATION

We develop a partial equilibrium dynamic model in which firms are risk‐averse. We analyse the determinants of the investment–uncertainty relationship by means of numerical techniques. When firms can borrow ‘outside’ resources at the riskless rate, an increase in price volatility depresses investment for realistic parameter values. In our model, portfolio considerations play an important role. When the marginal revenue of capital becomes more uncertain, the risk‐averse firm's owners reduce their ‘short position’ in the risk‐free asset, thus diminishing the firm's debt level. The contraction in leverage reduces the expected returns on investment because the expected marginal revenue product is higher than the user cost of capital. In turn, the reduction in expected yields tends to depress investment.