On the Stability of the Excess Sensitivity of Aggregate Consumption Growth in the USA

This paper investigates whether there is time variation in the excess sensitivity of aggregate consumption growth to anticipated aggregate disposable income growth using quarterly US data over the period 1953–2014. Our empirical framework contains the possibility of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth and takes into account measurement error and time aggregation. Our empirical specification is cast into a Bayesian state‐space model and estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We use a Bayesian model selection approach to deal with the non‐regular test for the null hypothesis of no time variation in the excess sensitivity parameter. Anticipated disposable income growth is calculated by incorporating an instrumental variables estimation approach into our MCMC algorithm. Our results suggest that the excess sensitivity parameter in the USA is stable at around 0.23 over the entire sample period. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE PREDICTABILITY OF AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN OECD COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

We examine aggregate consumption growth predictability. We derive a dynamic consumption equation which encompasses relevant predictability factors: habit formation, intertemporal substitution, current income consumption and non‐separabilities between private consumption and both hours worked and government consumption. We estimate this equation for a panel of 15 OECD countries over the period 1972–2007, taking into account parameter heterogeneity, endogeneity and error cross‐sectional dependence using a GMM version of the common correlated effects mean group estimator. Small‐sample properties are demonstrated using Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results support income growth as the only variable with significant predictive power for aggregate consumption growth. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Barriers to capital accumulation in a model of technology adoption and schooling

Standard growth models require large differences in barriers to capital accumulation to reproduce the observed disparities in the wealth of nations. I introduce technology adoption and schooling decisions into a standard growth model and show that the required differences in barriers implied by this model are much smaller. In particular, a calibrated version of the model implies per capita income differences 3 times larger than a standard model. Per capita income differences are amplified by two reinforcing factors: schooling capital differences and aggregate total factor productivity differences. The results suggest caution in the role of factor inputs derived from standard development accounting exercises. A development policy that subsidizes education is not optimal in the presence of barriers to capital accumulation, removing barriers can replicate educational outcomes and generate higher income levels by several orders of magnitude.     

The Income Elasticity of Money Demand: A Meta‐Analysis of Empirical Results*

Abstract. In this paper, we use meta‐analytic methods to investigate possible sources for the large variation in empirical findings about the income elasticity of money demand. Our results suggest that the broadness of the monetary aggregate, the inclusion of wealth and the consideration of financial innovation exert a significant influence on estimated income elasticities. Furthermore, we find substantial cross‐country differences, in particular between the US and other countries. These differences can, to some extent, be explained by the macrofeconomic environment and the dissemination of payment cards.     

21st‐century models of employee representation: structures,processes and outcomes

The 2004 Workplace Employment Relations Survey allows further exploration of the fate or workplace‐based forms of employee representation charted by earlier surveys. We describe the occurrence and diversity of representational forms, union, non‐union and ‘hybrid’, and the structural characteristics of workplaces where they are found. We go on to analyse a number of structural and processual differences and differences in outcomes. In particular, we try to estimate the effects of different forms for outcomes such as wage dispersion, procedural ‘fairness’ and productivity. The data show that ‘hybrid’ systems of union and non‐union representation are associated with the best outcomes, therefore, notwithstanding the continuing decline in the diffusion of the ‘traditional’ union‐based model of workplace representation, union presence is still a prerequisite for effective representation, while ‘pure’ non‐union forms serve neither employee nor employer interests.     

AN EMPIRICAL SURVEY OF RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND MODELLING

Abstract The increased reliance on demand‐side management policies as an urban water consumption management tool has stimulated considerable debate among economists, water utility managers, regulators, consumer interest groups and policymakers. In turn, this has fostered an increasing volume of literature aimed at providing best‐practice estimates of price and income elasticities, quantifying the impact of non‐price water restrictions and gauging the impact of non‐discretionary environmental factors affecting residential water demand. This paper provides a synoptic survey of empirical residential water demand analyses conducted in the last 25 years. Both model specification and estimation and the outcomes of the analyses are discussed.     

Inequality for Wage Earners and Self‐Employed: Evidence from Panel Data*

In this paper we highlight the importance of analysing the evolution of income inequality separately for employees and self‐employed workers. Using Spanish panel data on income and consumption for the period 1987–96, we find noticeable differences across these groups in the evolution of income inequality, and in the relative importance of the transitory and permanent components of income variance. The evolution of inequality is mainly explained by movements in the transitory component for the self‐employed and by the permanent component for the employees. Our results suggest that different policies should be implemented for each group.     

Heterogeneity and long-run changes in aggregate hours and the labor wedge

From 1961 to 2007, U.S. aggregate hours worked increased and the labor wedge—measured as the discrepancy between a representative household׳s marginal rate of substitution and the marginal product of labor—declined substantially. The labor wedge is negatively related to hours and is often attributed to labor income taxes. However, U.S. labor income taxes increased since 1961. We examine a model with gender and marital status heterogeneity which accounts for the trends in the U.S. hours and the labor wedge. Apart from taxes, the model׳s labor wedge reflects non-distortionary cross-sectional differences in households׳ hours worked and productivity. We provide evidence that household heterogeneity is important for long-run changes in labor wedges and hours in other OECD economies.     

Earnings Management Vehicles for Korean Firms

We investigated the vehicles that Korean firms use when the firms manage earnings. We partitioned our sample into low, mid and high accrual sub‐samples based on discretionary accruals. Low accrual firms are defined as income‐decreasing firms whereas the high accrual firms are considered income increasing firms in this study. We decomposed accounting earnings into cash from operations and various components of accruals in a systematic way. Next we examined the types of accruals individual firms use when the respective firms increase reported earnings. The empirical results of the study indicate that there are clear discrepancies in the earnings management vehicles firm use when the firms manage earnings depending on the directions of earnings management. More specifically, income‐increasing firms frequently employ non‐cash revenues including asset‐disposal gains. Income‐decreasing firms employ non‐cash expenses including bad‐debt expenses and asset‐disposal losses. Firms also tend to use current accruals but to a limited extent as current accruals entail cash flow implications in the following years.     

Testing income series: An application of principal components

A methodology based on principal components is developed for the testing and estimation of aggregate income series. The technique consists in extracting the first principal component from residuals of estimated demand functions which would incorporate the real income effect and other random disturbances. The first component should then reflect the behavior of real income. The procedure is applied to test Brazilian output series estimated by the author, covering the period 1911–1939, and to compare those series with the ones previously available for Brazil.     

Relative income,absolute income and the life satisfaction of older adults: do retirees differ from the non‐retired?

We examine life‐satisfaction of older adults using a representative sample of Canadian individuals aged 45+. Our findings confirm a long line of employment relations research on the importance of ‘relational concerns’ in that: (i) income relative to the average for a given person's gender, age, region and marital status (relative income) matters more in improving life satisfaction as a whole than does absolute personal income; (ii) the relationship between relative income and happiness is much stronger for the non‐retired than retired persons, likely reflecting the importance of comparisons among peers at the workplace; and (3) absolute personal income does have a small positive relationship with life satisfaction but only for retirees and not for the non‐retired.     

Modelling low income transitions

We examine the determinants of low income transitions using first‐order Markov models that control for initial conditions effects (those found to be poor in the base year may be a non‐random sample) and for attrition (panel retention may also be non‐random). The model estimates, derived from British panel data for the 1990s, indicate that there is substantial state dependence in poverty, separate from persistence induced by heterogeneity. We also provide estimates of low income transition rates and lengths of poverty and non‐poverty spells for persons of different types. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Growth and inequality: Dependence on the time path of productivity increases (and other structural changes)

This paper examines the significance of the time path of a given productivity increase on growth and inequality. Whereas the time path impacts only the transitional paths of aggregate quantities, it has both transitional and permanent consequences for wealth and income distribution. Hence, the growth-inequality tradeoff generated by a given discrete increase in productivity contrasts sharply with that obtained when the same productivity increase occurs gradually. The latter can generate a Kuznets-type relationship between inequality and per-capita income. Our results suggest that economies with similar aggregate structural characteristics may have different outcomes for income and wealth inequality, depending on the nature of the productivity growth path.     

Do Firms Increase Productivity in Order to Become Exporters?*

Recent studies find that exporters are more productive than non‐exporters and that entry into exporting does not increase firms’ productivity. Thus, firms self‐select into foreign markets. This paper examines productivity before entry into exporting. Using Chilean plant‐level data, we find that productivity and investment increase before plants begin to export. Moreover, productivity of entrants to exporting, but not that of non‐exporters and exporters, increases in response to increases in foreign income, before entry but not after that. The results suggest that the productivity advantage of future exporters may be the result of firms increasing their productivity in order to export.     

Do unions redistribute income from capital to labour? Union density and wage shares since 1960

The income distribution between capital and labour is understudied within industrial relations. This article investigates the relationship between union density, taken as an indicator of the bargaining power of unions, and the wage share of national income in 16 advanced capitalist economies since 1960. It is shown that overall there is a positive relationship between union density and the wage share, as one would expect. But the relationship is weak or non‐existent in the Nordic countries, and in some specifications in Germany and Anglo‐Saxon countries, and overall it is weak in the 1980s and early 1990s. The article discusses the differences between countries in relationship to the literature on corporatism and wage moderation, and the decreasing effect over time with reference to increased global competition and conservatism of monetary policy from about 1980 on, increasing unions' incentives for wage moderation policies.     

Tax‐avoidance strategies of American multinationals: an empirical analysis

This paper analyzes the opportunities of American multinationals to reallocate their profits into tax havens. In contrast to previous papers, a comprehensive look on the profit‐shifting process is undertaken by proposing three different tests. Multinationals in high‐tax countries have a lower equity ratio than affiliates in tax havens, indicating that income is shifted by extensively financing subsidiaries in high‐tax countries with debt. Furthermore, the share of retained earnings is lower in high‐tax countries owing to the unattractiveness of tax deferral. When testing for the outcomes of profit shifting, the results show that the pre‐tax profitability of American multinationals is higher in tax havens. This relationship is consistent with the opportunities of multinationals to shift income outside high‐tax jurisdictions. Finally, the paper shows that profit shifting largely takes place into tax havens, whereas other countries do not benefit from profit‐shifting activities. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Macro‐integration with inequality constraints: an application to the integration of transport and trade statistics

Macro‐integration is the process of combining data from several sources at an aggregate level. We review a Bayesian approach to macro‐integration with special emphasis on the inclusion of inequality constraints. In particular, an approximate method of dealing with inequality constraints within the linear macro‐integration framework is proposed. This method is based on a normal approximation to the truncated multivariate normal distribution. The framework is then applied to the integration of international trade statistics and transport statistics. By combining these data sources, transit flows can be derived as differences between specific transport and trade flows. Two methods of imposing the inequality restrictions that transit flows must be non‐negative are compared. Moreover, the figures are improved by imposing the equality constraints that aggregates of incoming and outgoing transit flows must be equal.     

Managing Discretionary Accruals and Book‐Tax Differences in Anticipation of Tax Rate Increases: Evidence from China

This paper investigates how firms manage their earnings to trade off various incentives when tax rates increase. We hypothesize and find that firms generally choose to manage their taxable income upward in a book‐tax non‐conforming manner rather than in a book‐tax conforming manner before a tax rate increment, which in turn reduces the detection risk of aggressive financial reporting. These results suggest that firms give more weight to tax incentives and tax audit or regulatory inspection risks than to boosting financial reporting income in tax management. However, when firms have higher book management incentives or lower tunneling incentives (i.e., non‐state‐owned enterprises), we find that they manage their taxable income and book income upward together (i.e., in a book‐tax conforming manner), whereas their counterparts (i.e., state‐owned enterprises) do not. Overall, our paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating the interplay of tax, tunneling and financial reporting incentives in influencing tax management strategies. The findings from our paper should also help government and regulators understand more about firms’ reactions to tax rate increases.     

Inequality and Crime: Separating the Effects of Permanent and Transitory Income*

Earlier studies on income inequality and crime have typically used total income or total earnings. However, it is quite likely that it is the changes in permanent rather than in transitory income that affects crime rates. The purpose of this paper is therefore to disentangle the two effects by, first, estimating region‐specific inequality in permanent and transitory income and, second, estimating crime equations with the two separate income components as explanatory variables. The results indicate that it is important to separate the two effects; while an increase in the inequality in permanent income yields a positive and significant effect on total crimes and three different property crimes, an increase in the inequality in transitory income has no significant effect. Using a traditional, aggregate, measure of income yields insignificant effects on crime.     

Partial Horizontal Inequity Orderings: A Non‐parametric Approach*

We provide a partial ordering view of horizontal inequity (HI), based on the Lorenz criterion, associated with different post‐tax income distributions and a (bistochastic) non‐parametric estimated benchmark distribution. As a consequence, several measures consistent with the Lorenz criterion can be rationalized. In addition, we establish the so‐called HI transfer principle, which imposes a normative minimum requirement that any HI measure must satisfy. Our proposed HI ordering is consistent with this principle. Moreover, we adopt a cardinal view to decompose the total effect of a tax system into a welfare gain caused by HI‐free income redistribution and a welfare loss caused by HI, without any additive decomposable restriction on the indices. Hence, more robust tests can be applied. Other decompositions in the literature are seen as particular cases.