中国制造业资本深化和就业调整-基于利润最大化假设的分析

联系要素市场干预的现实,在利润最大化假设条件下,本文建立了中国制造业行业就业调整和资本深化关系模型。研究发现:(1)近10年来,增加值产出就业吸收能力大幅下降的趋势正在中国制造业行业普遍发生;(2)作为一种与增加值产出就业吸收能力大幅下降相伴随的现象,资本深化趋势在中国制造业行业正普遍发生作用;(3)增加值产出就业吸收能力的持续下降,表明中国制造业行业资本/劳动强替代弹性已成为该部门增长不得不面对的现实。     

中国各地区就业质量测算与评价

基于公开出版的官方的统计年鉴数据,本文构建了一个包括了6个维度指标、20个二级指标和50个三级指标的就业质量评价指标体系,使用主成分分析法对中国大陆30个省份的就业质量状况进行了测算。结果表明,在2007年、2008年这两个年份,除少数经济发达省份外,全国就业质量的总体水平不高,大部分省份的就业质量指数较低;地区间就业质量差异明显,发展不协调;随着经济发展,地区间就业质量差异逐步缩小。由于就业环境改善是提高就业质量的基础,所以实现经济发展向高就业、高报酬、高消费型发展方式的转变,加快中西部地区经济发展,逐步缩小地区间经济发展水平的差异,是缩小就业质量差异的根本途径。同时,还应加强人力资本投资;切实保障劳动者权益,促进三方协商机制的实施;必须通过完善相关制度建立地区间、城乡间高效一体的劳动力市场,这是实现平等就业,促进和谐发展的必然选择。     

DYNAMIC WAGE AND EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF ELDER PARENT CARE

This article formulates and estimates a dynamic discrete choice model of elder parent care and work to analyze how caregiving affects a woman's current and future labor force participation and wages. The model incorporates parental health changes, human capital accumulation, and job offer availability. The estimates indicate that women face low probabilities of returning to work or increasing work hours after a caregiving spell. I use the estimated model to simulate the caregiving, employment, and welfare effects of a longer unpaid work leave than currently available under the Family and Medical Leave Act, a paid leave, and a caregiver allowance.     

PROTECTION,INVOLUNTARY SELF‐EMPLOYMENT AND WELFARE

A small open economy operates with a unionized import‐competing sector and an informal “self‐employed” sector. Productivity varies across people in the informal sector. The full‐employment structure accommodates “underemployment or involuntary self‐employment” in the flexible‐wage informal sector. Protection increases the cost of capital and may increase the set of people who are involuntarily employed in the informal sector. Even if one ignores the consumption distortion effect of a tariff, the tariff may fail to be second‐best because it may raise underemployment. Our results on tariff‐reform are consistent with some recent empirical evidence.     

Career, experience and returns to human capital: is the dual labour market hypothesis relevant for the UK?

This paper investigates the relationship between career status, labour market experience and returns to human capital accumulation in the context of a two-tier, career and non-career labour market. Using micro data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), this study detects wage and employment mechanisms that differ between these two tiers of workers. The paper finds no support for the hypothesis of strict duality, by which the returns to education are expected to differ across labour market segments, with the returns in career employment being high and positive and the returns in the non-career sector being close to zero. The paper, however, finds support for significant returns to current tenure only in the career sector and also for the scarring hypothesis, according to which part-time employment and unemployment experience have a negative effect on participation and earnings in the career sector. Finally, there is evidence that only non-career earnings are significantly affected by local demand conditions, in contrast to earnings in the career sector. Career status is modelled as an endogenous variable subject to an initial job choice.     

Regional productivity variation and the impact of public capital stock: an analysis with spatial interaction,with reference to Spain

In this article, we examine whether variations in the level of public capital across Spain's Provinces affected productivity levels over the period 1996 to 2005. The analysis is motivated by contemporary urban economics theory, involving a production function for the competitive sector of the economy (‘industry’) which includes the level of composite services derived from ‘service’ firms under monopolistic competition. The outcome is potentially increasing returns to scale resulting from pecuniary externalities deriving from internal increasing returns in the monopolistic competition sector. We extend the production function by also making (log) labour efficiency a function of (log) total public capital stock and (log) human capital stock, leading to a simple and empirically tractable reduced form linking productivity level to density of employment, human capital and public capital stock. The model is further extended to include technological externalities or spillovers across provinces. Using panel data methodology, we find significant elasticities for total capital stock and for human capital stock, and a significant impact for employment density. The finding that the effect of public capital is significantly different from zero, indicating that it has a direct effect even after controlling for employment density, is contrary to some of the earlier research findings which leave the question of the impact of public capital unresolved.     

THE FIFTH ASIAN DRAGON: SOURCES OF GROWTH IN GUANGDONG, 1979–1994

This paper presents a growth accounting exercise to uncover the sources of spectacular growth in the Guangdong Province in China, the so-called "Fifth Dragon" in Asia, for the post-open-door period 1979–1994. A large fraction of Guangdong's output growth cannot be attributed to the growth in its capital and labor inputs. Of the unexplained residuals, foreign direct investment is a significant growth-spurring engine while export expansion is not. In this sense, China's open door policy did not generate export-led growth although it did stimulate capital accumulation through the importation of foreign capital.
"East Asia has a remarkable record of high and sustained economic growth. From 1965 to 1990 the twenty-three economies of East Asia grew faster than all other regions of the world…. Most of this achievement is attributable to seemingly miraculous growth in just eight economies: Japan; the 'Four Tigers' —Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, China; and three newly industrializing economies (NIEs) of Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand…."     

SELF EMPLOYMENT AMONG GRADUATES

An econometric model of the self employment decision is estimated for a large sample of UK graduates. Although the earnings distributions suggest that there are incentives to be self employed, the difference in the predicted earnings that an individual receives in the self employed and employed sectors is not a significant influence on the choice of sector and the decision depends on personal and social factors. Policies based on changing the pecuniary returns may not encourage the growth of self employment among graduates. The econometric results also suggest that the self employed are a non-random subset of the graduate workforce., revision accepted August 1989     

WAGES AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE U.S. APPAREL INDUSTRY

This article uses individual-level data from the U.S. Census, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), to examine wages and employment in the U.S. apparel industry. Total employment in this sector has been falling since 1970, and its overall average wage is the lowest of 25 industry aggregates. But disaggregation by gender, education, and nativity reveals that groups of highly educated male native workers earn higher average wages in apparel than in other industries. Moreover, after adjusting for observed individual differences in human capital (in addition to the three characteristics used to form worker subsets), highly educated male natives earn positive wage premiums in this sector. In contrast, most categories of immigrants and female natives earn relatively low average wages and experience negative wage premiums in apparel. This variation in the adjusted industry wage premiums across worker groups may be related to apparel's relative exposure to imports and immigrant workers.     

三峡库区移民人力资本因素与劳动报酬收入关系的实证研究

利用重庆云阳县529户移民户的调查数据,对三峡库区移民户的人力资本因素与其家庭劳动报酬收入的相关性进行了分析。实证分析结果显示:移民户的各人力资本因素(包括劳动力文化程度、技能状况、健康状况、就业培训状况、劳动工作持续时间)与其家庭年均劳动报酬收入均存在显著的相关性;家庭年均劳动报酬收入的增加会促使移民户家庭加大对子女教育的年投入和劳动力医疗年支出。     

1990年代上海市人口和就业变化的空间格局和国际对比

文章将上海市划分为核心区、内圈、外圈三个部分，对其1990年代人口和就业结构的变化及其空间差异进行了分析并与若干东南亚特大城市进行了对比。研究表明，与这些东南亚特大城市相类似，上海市1990年代人口和就业增长最快的是其内圈。但与上述东南亚特大城市不同的是，上海市就业结构的变化仍以核心区最为突出；核心区仍保持较强的发展势头。研究还表明，1990年代上海经历了前所未有的人口和产业从核心区向外围的扩散。但与上述东南亚特大城市相比，这种扩散的空间范围有限，其郊区化和产业结构向高级服务业转变的过程仍处于起始阶段。上述分析和对比对研究上海今后人口分布和就业结构的演变和空间规划有着重要启示。     

Financial sector development and domestic savings in South Asia

Given the limited capital flows to developing countries in South Asia, domestic savings is the primary source of investment and growth. Financial sector development and access to financial institutions are important determinants of savings ratios in developing countries. In this context, we empirically examine the role of financial development on savings ratios of five South Asian countries after controlling for other relevant variables for the period 1975–2010 and also for two sub-periods—the pre-reforms period (1975–1991) and the post-reforms period (1992–2010). We find that financial sector development positively affects total and private savings in South Asia along with per capita income, share of agriculture and foreign savings. Results also support the humped-shaped relationship between financial development and savings. The causality results support that financial development leads to higher savings mobilisation in South Asia.     

FDI,Industry Heterogeneity and Employment Elasticity in China

We investigate the different impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) on employment elasticity with China's firm level data from 1998 to 2007. Our analysis shows that the inclusion of FDI does significantly affect firms' employment elasticity when facing wage, capital and output shocks. These effects vary dramatically across industries with different factor intensities and export status. Specifically, we find that non‐exporters with FDI tend to increase employment elasticity more than exporters when wage, capital input or output changes. However, FDI firms that are engaging in labor‐intensive production tend to have larger output and capital input elasticity of employment while smaller wage elasticity of employment. Our findings help to explain the contradicting results in existing literature and provide important references for China's policy makers to design proper industry policies towards FDI.     

Women's gender-type occupational mobility in Puerto Rico, 1950 — 80

Abstract

This paper investigates the patterns and determinants of women's mobility into and out of male-dominated occupations in Puerto Rico during a period of rapid development between the 1950s and the early 1980s. The paper uses data from the Puerto Rico Fertility and Family Planning Assessment of 1982, which includes detailed retrospective calendar histories of women's employment and other life-course changes. An event history approach allows an examination of the effects of human capital, family status, socialization, and opportunity structure in the labor market on women's entry into male-dominated occupations and their subsequent shifts to other occupations. The findings indicate that women's entry into male-dominated occupations increased for first jobs during this period of economic development, and there was modest cross gender-type mobility among women who experienced job changes. Finally, the variables more directly tapping labor-supply factors show stronger effects on women's labor-force behavior than those more directly tapping labor-demand factors.     

Cultural and economic integration of immigrant minorities: Analytical framework and policy implications

The cultural diversity that new immigrants bring to the host economy is potentially beneficial for the productivity of both immigrants and natives, but immigrants must assimilate to some extent for these benefits to be realized. In general, immigrants assimilate more slowly than natives would like, as they ignore the external material benefits of assimilation for natives and their resistance to foreign cultural influences. We develop a formal framework that highlights the complementarity between immigrants' cultural assimilation, economic integration, and investment in human capital, indicating the scope for mutually beneficial policies, offering immigrants material incentives to assimilate more rapidly.     

Human capital and the re‐employment of retrenchment labor in urban China

The inefficiency of state‐owned enterprises, followed by the economic reform in urban China, resulted in large‐scale retrenchment during the late1990s. The laid‐off workers were middle‐aged, not well educated and had accumulated a lot of firm‐specific human capital that was unlikely to be of value in the product market. In this study, we investigate how differently human capital affects laid‐off workers’ occupation choices: self‐employment, re‐employment and remaining unemployed. Using 2002 Chinese Household Income Project and 2009 Urban Household Survey datasets, we find that although general human capital measured by education is positively related to the probability of finding a job, it is negatively associated with the probability of self‐employment. Displaced workers with more sector‐specific work experience are more likely to be self‐employed than to be employed by others. Government‐sponsored training significantly increases the likelihood of finding a job. Health is positively associated with re‐employment.     

Binding constraint on economic growth under export-oriented industrialization and globalization

The two-gap model of economic growth implies that different constraints on economic growth, namely the savings and the foreign exchange availability, are binding at different times. This article estimates these varying binding constraints in 16 countries in East and Southeast Asia and Latin America, and explores their differences across countries, regions and periods. I show that the East and Southeast Asian countries, which are recognized to be successful in export-oriented industrialization, are less constrained by the foreign exchange availability with reinforced export capacity than the Latin American countries, which had carried some inertia of import substituting industrialization policy until the 1980s. In addition, the economic growth turns out to be more constrained by the domestic savings in recent years, which can be a reflection of capital account liberalization policies typically implemented in the late 1980s and 1990s, and/or a diminishing return to export-led growth. In either case, this might be a factor underlining the recent reconsideration of export-oriented development strategy to balance past excessive dependence on the external demand in several countries in East and Southeast Asia.     

Global Defeminization? Industrial Upgrading and Manufacturing Employment in Developing Countries

Globalization has for decades been associated with a rise in the female share of employment or feminization. This study finds that since the mid 1980s, export growth in developing countries is associated with feminization in some countries and a defeminization in others. Focusing on Southeast Asia and Latin America, it uses a fixed-effects econometric model to test whether the technological conditions of production (labor or capital intensity) rather than export growth account for shifts in the female share of employment in manufacturing. It finds that the capital intensity of production, evidenced by shifts in labor productivity, is negatively and significantly related to shifts in the female share of employment in manufacturing, while exports are statistically insignificant. The study concludes that an anti-female bias exists in labor demand changes that result from output or employment shifts in developing countries when manufacturing becomes more capital intensive, a process likely related to industrial upgrading.     

Measuring and Explaining Innovative Capability: Evidence from Southeast Asia

What causes firm‐level product innovation in developing economies? This paper answers this question by emphasizing the role of process improvements that are influential in product innovation. We construct a firm‐level innovative capability score using novel, broad‐based, but detailed data on various process improvement practices obtained from firms in Southeast Asia. We then investigate the factors that may affect innovative capability. We also estimate the effect of the innovative capability score on product innovation controlling for research and development intensity and other firm characteristics. Our empirical investigation identifies a chief executive officer (CEO)'s past experience at a foreign or large firm, and buyer pressure to adopt international standards as key determinants of innovative capability. Novel and unique findings from our examination include: (i) the impact of a CEO's past experience at a foreign or large firm on the innovative capability is larger for local enterprises and small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises; (ii) the impact of share of foreign workers in the upper managerial levels only appears to be significant in foreign firms and larger firms; and (iii) buyer pressure is a more likely contributor to innovative capability compared with capital tie‐ups with multinational enterprises or joint venture buyers that capture vertical technology transfers. Finally, our empirical results show that a firm in Southeast Asia is more likely to achieve product innovation if the firm has had a higher innovative capability.     

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF TOURISM, EMPLOYMENT AND WELFARE: THE CASE OF HONG KONG

Abstract.  The present paper uses a dynamic open-economy model with wage indexation to examine the impact of tourism on employment and welfare. Both short-run and long-run situations are analysed. It is well known that tourism converts non-traded goods into tradable goods. An increase in the demand for a non-traded good raises its relative price, which results in an expansion of the non-traded sector at the expense of the traded goods sector. This output shift raises labour employment in the short run. However, in the long run, the higher relative price leads to higher wages, resulting in a negative impact on labour employment. If the output effect is dominant, the expansion in tourism raises employment and welfare. However, under realistic conditions tourism may lower both labour employment and welfare due to rising costs. These results are demonstrated by simulating a dynamic model for the case of Hong Kong.