经济发展对城市基建和外商投资的创新门槛效应研究

创新是引领城市经济高质量发展的核心引擎之一,基于2003—2018年间中国271个地级及以上城市的面板数据,以经济发展程度为门槛变量着重考察基础设施建设和外商投资对城市创新活动的非线性影响机制以及城市间的空间溢出效应。研究结果表明,基础设施建设和外商投资对城市创新都具有经济发展的双门槛效应,当经济发展程度达到第一个门槛值时,才会显著促使城市创新产出的提升。当经济发展程度跨越第二个门槛值时,会进一步增加城市的创新产。城市间的创新活动具有明显的空间依赖性,对于经济发展程度差距较大的城市之间,基础设施建设显著增强创新溢出效应。     

An indirect test of efficient city sizes

This paper develops a model which demonstrates necessary conditions for efficient distribution of labor across areas given the presence of agglomeration economies and congestion externalities. An indirect empirical test for efficient allocation is formulated based on a comparison of estimated agglomeration economies with the compensating variation in occupation-specific wages needed to attract workers to larger cities. The results of this test suggest that there are specific city size ranges where necessary conditions for efficient allocation of resources are not met, particularly for cities in the 1.5 to 2.5 million population range. Current claims that continued growth of the largest U. S. cities is inefficient are not confirmed by the empirical results.     

Spatial interactions among U.S. cities: 1900–1990

We test implications of economic geography by exploring spatial interactions among U.S. cities. We use a data set consisting of 1900–1990 metro area populations, and spatial measures including distance from the nearest larger city in a higher-tier, adjacency, and location within U.S. regions. We also date cities from their time of settlement. We find that among cities which enter the system, larger cities are more likely to locate near other cities. Moreover, older cities are more likely to have neighbors. Distance from the nearest higher-tier city is not always a significant determinant of size and growth. We find no evidence of persistent non-linear effects on urban growth of either size or distance, although distance is important for city size for some years.     

影响中国城市增长的因素:地级及以上城市的实证检验

论文以国内外相关城市增长理论为基础,构建了分析中国城市增长的系统模型,并利用206个城市1990年与2005年的社会经济统计数据进行了实证研究.研究结果表明:(1)中国城市的经济增长主要是由劳动生产率提高而非人口规模增长推动的;(2)政府财政支出和城市人力资本积累是目前中国城市经济增长的主要驱动力;(3)人力资本积累并没有在工资增长上得到体现;(4)城市公共设施和环境的改善引致了城市人口增长,但对城市经济发展却没有明显的作用.在以上研究结果基础上,论文提出了保持城市可持续发展的一些政策建议.     

The scale of hospital production in different settings: one size does not fit all

This paper analyses the productive efficiency of 141 public hospitals from 1998 to 2004 in two Canadian provinces; one a small province with a few small cities and a generally more rural population and the other a large province that is more urban in nature, with a population who mainly live in large cities. The relative efficiencies of the hospitals, the changes in productivity during this time period, and the relationship between efficiency and the size or scale of the hospitals are investigated using data envelopment analysis. The models for the production of health care use case mix adjusted hospital discharges as the output, and nursing hours as inputs. We find clear differences between the two provinces. Making use of ‘own’ and ‘meta’ technical efficiency frontiers, we demonstrate that efficient units in the larger and more urban province are larger than non-efficient units in that province. However, efficient hospitals in the smaller and more rural province are smaller than non-efficient hospitals in that province. Overall, efficient hospitals in the larger more urban province are larger than efficient hospitals in the smaller more rural province. This has interesting policy implications—different hospitals may have different optimal sizes, or different efficient modes of operation, depending on location, the population they serve, and the policies their respective provincial governments wish to implement. In addition, there are lessons to be learned by comparing the hospitals across the two provinces, since the inefficient hospitals in the small rural province predominantly use hospitals from the large urban province as benchmarks, such that substantially larger improvement potential can be identified by inter-provincial rather than intra-provincial benchmarking analysis.     

山东省城镇地区就业现状与劳动力供求变动趋势

利用统计年鉴数据和人口普查资料,分析山东城镇地区就业现状,认为城乡就业问题集中在城镇地区,城镇劳动力供给大于需求,城镇经济活动人口的二元化特征显著。利用弹性法和构成法分别预测了2008-2020年城镇劳动力需求和供给变动趋势。结果表明,在十三五中后期山东省劳动力供求矛盾有望缓解。最后提出了解决城镇劳动力供求矛盾的对策建议。     

城乡联系及统筹城乡的战略性问题

关于城乡联系的传统经济理论大致可归纳为城市为主导、乡村为主导、城乡一体和城乡互动三方面,新兴古典经济学的城市化理论和新经济地理学理论则为城乡联系理论增加了新的内涵.以城乡联系理论为基础并结合对建国以来城乡关系及城市化进程的历史考察,提出了统筹城乡发展应重点关注主现愿望与客观规律的矛盾、政府的角色和职责定位、城市化的地位及其道路选择等重要战略性问题并分析给出了方向性的政策建议.     

The effects of agglomeration externalities on urban green total-factor productivity in China

For China's urban industrial layout and green development, determining which types of agglomeration externalities are most advantageous to the rise of green total-factor productivity has both theoretical and practical relevance. This research experimentally studies the effects of three types of agglomeration externalities on urban green total-factor productivity using the data of 285 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2018. The findings demonstrate that urban green total-factor output is rising, albeit with certain differences during different time periods. Both the Jacobs externality and the Porter externality are favorable for increasing urban green total-factor production when all cities are evaluated together, although the latter has a stronger promoting influence. The effect of the Marshall-Arrow-Romer externality, on the other hand, is not significant. Furthermore, these effects also depend on the stage of economic development and population size.     

POLLUTION'S ROLE IN REDUCING URBAN QUALITY OF LIFE IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD

This paper surveys the recent literature exploring the consequences of urban pollution in the developing world for a city's productivity and resident quality of life. The environmental Kuznets curve literature predicts that developing nations will experience significant environmental degradation as a byproduct of economic development. In contrast, the recent literature that we review reverses this logic by arguing that geographic areas featuring lower levels of pollution will experience economic growth through improvements in health and human capital. In an economy where pollution reduces worker productivity, inhibits child development and repels the skilled from living in such an area, those cities featuring less pollution have a competitive advantage in attracting and retaining the skilled. Given the central role that human capital plays in urban economic growth, such cities will be more likely to achieve sustainable long‐term growth.     

基于生产函数的城市经济水平影响因素差异研究

改革开放以来,中国经济有长足而稳定的发展.对于一个国家或城市的经济而言,经济发展水平的提高可以通过两种途径来实现,即增加生产要素投入和技术进步.利用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型,分析规模经济对中国城市经济的影响.考虑到经济增长各地区间的差异性,将中国283个地级以上城市划分为6大经济区域及3个规模级别分别进行研究.研究发现,当前中国城市整体处于规模收益递增阶段,但不同区域不同规模的城市其规模弹性存在较大差异.在此基础之上,将产业结构、开放程度、与外界区域经济联系及科技水平4个具体反映广义技术进步的因素融入上述模型中,探究各因素对我国经济水平的作用,并得出了产业结构和科技水平是影响目前城市经济水平主要因素的结论.     

Do We Still Need Cities? Evidence on Rates of Innovation from Count Data Models of Metropolitan Statistical Area Patents

Evidence of the importance of urban agglomeration and the offsetting effects of congestion are provided in a number of studies of productivity and wages. Little attention has been paid to this evidence in the economic growth literature, where the recent focus is on technological change. We extend the idea of agglomeration and congestion effects to the area of innovation by empirically looking for a nonlinear link between population density and patent activity. A panel data set consisting of observations on 302 USA metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over a 10-year period from 1990 to 1999 is utilized. Following the patent and R&D literature, models that account for the discreet nature of the dependent variable are employed. Strong evidence is found that agglomeration and congestion are important in explaining the vast differences in patent rates across US cities. The most important reason cities continue to exist, given the dramatic drop in transportation costs for physical goods over the last century, is probably related to the forces of agglomeration as they apply to knowledge spillovers. Therefore, the empirical investigation proposed here is an important part of understanding the viability of urban areas in the future.     

城市商品住宅价格水平影响因素研究

商品住宅价格问题是社会关注的焦点问题.以全国35个重点城市1999年-2005年数据为基础,研究城市住宅价格水平的影响因素.研究显示,代表城市经济发展水平和居民收入水平、单位面积土地投入、城市区位和城市环境等侧面的职工平均工资、单位面积固定资产投资、人均铺装道路面积、距海岸线的距离、通过城市的国道数量、建成区绿化覆盖率这6个因素是影响城市住宅价格水平的主要因素.可以预期,当一个城市的这些因素发生相对变化和绝对变化的时候,城市的住宅价格水平必然会发生相应的变化.阳光充足、水资源丰富、交通便捷的近海地区城市的商品住宅价格变动幅度会由于经济发展、人口增加、区住条件进一步优化、投入加大等各种条件的较大变化而高于其他城市.     

Urban growth and subcenter formation: A trolley ride from the Staples Center to Disneyland and the Rose Bowl

The long-term trends of urbanization suggest: not only have more cities formed, but the leading metropolises have grown larger, with a number of peripheral subcenters developing over time. Conventional models of urban growth are limited, in that commuting cost and congestion eventually result in decreasing returns in a monocentric city as population becomes very large. We construct a general-equilibrium model with dynamic interactions between spatial agglomeration and urban development, driven by location-dependent knowledge spillovers. Our contribution allows endogenous development of subcenters to capture benefits from knowledge spillovers and offset diminishing returns from urban congestion, thus permitting more sustained city growth.     

工业化以来人类对城乡关系的认识

从城市及其规划理论、社会改革理论、城乡经济发展实践和村庄建设管理体制等角度对工业化以来城乡关系研究进行了评述。指出了村庄和城市的本然关系,城市不能脱离村庄而存在,村庄和城市间没有必然的从属关系。认为现有的城乡关系理论以城市发展观和增长正统论为主流,致力于解决工业和城市发展问题,并未跳出城市站在更加广阔的视野下研究城乡关系;虽然城市和村庄的分离对立在大多数理论中得到体现,但城市—村庄矛盾的斗争性和同一性却并未被全面审视,对这一矛盾运动如何因势利导还需要进行长期深入的探讨。     

我国城市规模两极分化的现状与原因

在城市化过程中,城市规模的分布与资源配置状况对我国经济能否平稳发展有至关重要的作用。运用城市成本—收益、位序—规模分布、网络城市等理论,通过分析我国不同规模城市的人口、经济总量、资源配置等数据,对我国城市规模两极分化的特征性事实做了概括总结,并从市场选择、政治制度、自然历史因素等三个方面分析了我国城市规模两极分化的原因,认为城市化的均衡发展对我国经济社会的平稳发展具有至关重要的作用,并据此提出引导教育、医疗等优质资源向中小城市流动,促进不同规模城市协调发展的对策。     

中国城市经济增长的效率与差异

本文在利用Malmquist指数和一系列反映地区差异的统计指标对中国216个地级市1990~2004年经济增长的效率和差异进行描述的基础上,针对2000年以来中国城市经济表现出的新特点,采用因子分析和空间计量方法分析了影响中国城市经济增长的主要因素,结果表明216个地级市TFP整体呈现增长趋势,城市经济的地区差异明显且呈扩大趋势。2000年以来影响中国城市经济增长的因子强度依次为:地理位置、产业结构与市场化水平和要素投入等。     

城市群技术创新与经济增长效率的时空分异研究——以成都城市群为例

城市群区域协同发展格局对城市群整体创新绩效有着较为深刻的影响。本文基于协同共生的视角,以两阶段网络DEA为分析方法,以成都城市群为例,对城市群技术创新与经济增长两阶段动态效率进行实证分析,发现城市群技术创新与经济增长两阶段效率值的时空分异特征明显。时间上:在虹吸效应与涓滴效应的交互作用下,中心城市与成员城市的效率差呈现先扩大后缩小的趋势;空间上:呈现南北高,东西低的态势,并符合地理邻近、技术邻近以及制度邻近的发展规律。研究发现,经济增长产出阶段是创新效率提升的瓶颈,鉴于此,未来城市群发展需着力于政策协同、资源协同、空间协同,提高创新一体化程度,从而形成区域创新的整体规模效应。     

Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: a comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies

Many American and European cities have to deal with demographic and economic trajectories leading to urban shrinkage. According to official data, 13% of urban regions in the US and 54% of those in the EU have lost population in recent years. However, the extent and spatial distribution of declining populations differ significantly between Europe and the US. In Germany, the situation is driven by falling birth rates and the effects of German reunification. In the US, shrinkage is basically related to long-term industrial transformation. But the challenges of shrinking cities seldom appeared on the agendas of politicians and urban planners until recently. This article provides a critical overview of the development paths and local strategies of four shrinking cities: Schwedt and Dresden in eastern Germany; Youngstown and Pittsburgh in the US. A typology of urban growth and shrinkage, from economic and demographic perspectives, enables four types of city to be differentiated and the differences between the US and eastern Germany to be discussed. The article suggests that a new transatlantic debate on policy and planning strategies for restructuring shrinking cities is needed to overcome the dominant growth orientation that in most cases intensifies the negative consequences of shrinkage.     

湖北省人口收缩城市的空间格局与类型识别

通过对湖北省82个县(市、区)的常住人口变化率和人口净流量进行交互分析,引入城乡建设用地脱钩模型和人口—土地城镇化协调指数,分析了人口收缩区域建设用地结构和城镇化协调类型。结果显示,湖北省存在37个人口持续流出、规模减少的区域,这些区域不仅在总量上表现为人口收缩与建设用地扩张的悖论关系,而且在城镇化方面也多表现为人口城镇化与土地城镇化不协调的状态,而从城乡建设用地结构的角度表现为不同的脱钩类型,其中仅有少数收缩区域是强脱钩的合理利用状态。从不同表现特征可将收缩城市类型分为空间无序扩张型、工业衰退型、资源枯竭型以及中心袭夺型四个类别,并概括为人口资源与土地资源、经济发展等在时空上的不匹配。最后,结合资源禀赋、经济结构变化等特征对人口收缩区域类别进行了归纳,并提出了针对性的城市规划和发展建议。