Urban economic transformation and minority business opportunities

Conclusion In summary, this study hypothesized and found evidence of black business growth opportunities in business services, amenities, finance, and real estate. Decline of small-scale black retailing was hypothesized, but this decline was found to be much more apparent in snowbelt as opposed to sunbelt urban areas. Manufacturing was found to be surprisingly durable in the snowbelt and extraordinarily weak in the sunbelt, which is quite inconsistent with basic economic transformation trends operating in both regions. Weak performance in black-owned sunbelt manufacturing paralleled similar performance in sunbelt black-owned wholesaling. Sunbelt weaknesses in these two major industry groupings require explanation and would be appropriate topics for future research. Older central cities that once served as centers for industrial production are rapidly being transformed into cities where administrative and service functions are the dominant economic activities. Smaller, service-oriented firms are thriving in these cities, and minority-owned businesses appear to be major beneficiaries of this important urban trend. Finally, minority business development policies are most likely to be successful if they are complimentary to the basic long-term trends that are transforming urban America.     

Air pollution and procyclical mortality: Evidence from China

There is growing evidence that in developed countries, mortality rises (falls) in economic booms (busts). However, little is known about the cyclical pattern of mortality in developing countries. Using China's city-year data, we find that the total mortality in China also exhibits procyclical fluctuations. In exploring the mechanisms, we find that air pollution is one of the reasons for procyclical fluctuations in total mortality. Specifically, economic booms lead to severe air pollution, worsening human health and thus increasing death rates. Moreover, we find that changes in lifestyles may not be an important reason for procyclical mortality in China.     

长江流域三大城市群城市专业化格局演进

长江流域在我国经济发展格局中一直居于重要地位。近年来,城市群成为我国区域发展的主要空间形态。城市专业化的发展和格局演化对于城市群的协调发展和一体化进程推进具有重要影响。本文在区分绝对专业化、相对专业化、总体专业化的基础上,运用不同测度方法对长江流域三大城市群的城市专业化演进特征进行分析,研究发现:2003—2015年,长江流域三大城市群的绝对专业化发展较为稳定,整体平均水平缓慢提高;长江流域三大城市群的相对专业化平均水平整体呈一个平缓的倒“U”型提升趋势,表明在此期间,城市间产业分工不断深化,经济联系日益紧密,空间互动日趋频繁,城市群一体化进程逐渐深入;长江流域三大城市群的功能专业化发展较为显著,不同规模城市之间已经形成层次分明的职能分工,特大城市和大中城市依据自身特色,发展特色产业,同时积极承接超大城市和中心城市产业链功能转移和部门转移,聚焦制造功能,形成既有竞争又有合作的良性互动格局。对此,应继续引导长江流域三大城市群优化城市专业化发展格局,增进城市间产业分工、互动与合作,促进城市群健康发育和协调发展。     

珠三角区域经济非均衡增长因素研究——基于Panel—Data的计量分析

从长期来看,市域间劳动和资本量增长的不平衡,包括技术水平在内的其它要素差异,导致了以广州-深圳最高、佛山-东莞居中、江门-中山-肇庆-珠海-惠州最低为特征的珠三角经济总量地域分布格局的形成。从短期来看,珠三角备市经济总量增长波动主要取决于其劳动和商业资本投入量增长的变化,而且存在自我修复的误差修正机制。     

Trends and cycles in regional economic growth: How spatial differences shaped the Swedish growth experience from 1860–2009

Using a novel dataset of regional GDP per worker from 1860 to 2009, this paper analyzes communalities in regional long-term growth trajectories for 24 Swedish regions. Wavelet Analysis and Principal Component Analysis are used to decompose regional growth trajectories and assess the extent that regional growth patterns share common trends and cyclical properties. The study found that regional growth trends show strong common features among groups of regions in Sweden. Natural-resource-rich regions benefited from the First Industrial Revolution. Contrary to regional development in many other European economies, a growth surge in Sweden later benefited virtually the whole country during the Second Industrial Revolution. The countrywide trend of growth slowed in the 1970s when the metropolitan regions became the main growth engines. In mid- and short-term cyclical movements, regions display more heterogeneous growth patterns, and we find evidence of mid-term, sequential lead–lag patterns in regional growth, especially between urban cores and the periphery.     

Regional Competition in China under the Price Distortion of Construction Land: A Study Based on a Two‐regime Spatial Durbin Model

This study examines regional competition in China by considering the spatial correlation and spillover effect of construction land price distortion using a two‐regime Spatial Durbin Model to investigate the patterns and trends of the competition between 285 cities in China from 2006 to 2015. The study finds: (i) price distortion of construction land is a common phenomenon but the distortion index generally shows a declining trend; (ii) regional competition through construction land price distortion shows a weakly intensified pattern, although the competition patterns in the four regions of China varied; and (iii) the intensity of competition between regions was lower during the 12th Five‐year Plan compared to the 11th Plan. The intensity of competition between cities was also lower inside than outside urban agglomerations. These results provide policy implications for remedying the price distortion of construction land and promoting regional coordinated development.     

Urban growth and change in 1940s Southeast Asia

This article analyses demographic change in Southeast Asia's main cities during and soon after the Second World War Japanese occupation. We argue that two main patterns of population movements are evident. In food‐deficit areas, a search for food security typically led to large net inflows to main urban centres. By contrast, an urban exodus dominated in food surplus regions because the chief risk was to personal safety, especially from Japanese and Allied bombing. Black markets were ubiquitous, and essential to sustaining livelihoods in cities with food‐deficit hinterlands. In Rangoon and Manila, wartime population fluctuations were enormous. Famines in Java and northern Indochina severely impacted Jakarta and Hanoi through inflows of people from rural areas. In most countries, the war's aftermath of refugees, revolution, and political disruption generated major rural–urban population relocations. Turmoil in the 1940s had the permanent consequences of augmenting the primacy of Southeast Asia's main cities and promoting squatter settlement.     

Status and mortality: Is there a Whitehall effect in the United States?

The influential Whitehall studies found that top-ranking civil servants in Britain experienced lower mortality than civil servants below them in the organizational hierarchy due to differential exposure to workplace stress. I test for a Whitehall effect in the United States using a 1930 cohort of white-collar employees at a leading firm – General Electric (GE). All had access to a corporate health and welfare program during a critical period associated with the health transition. I measure status using position in the managerial hierarchy, attendance at prestigious management training camps and promotions, none of which is associated with a Whitehall-like rank-mortality gradient. Instead, senior managers and executives experienced a 3–5-year decrease in lifespan relative to those in lower levels, with the largest mortality penalty experienced by individuals in the second level of the hierarchy. I discuss generalizability and potential explanations for this reversal of the Whitehall phenomenon using additional data on the status and lifespan of top business executives and US senators.     

Urban mortality in Greece: Hermoupolis (1859–1940)

The paper examines mortality patterns in the city of Hermoupolis, on the Greek island of Syros, from 1859 to 1940. It produces important new insights into Mediterranean urban historical demography and is the first comprehensive study of urban mortality in Greece, utilising the largest and one of the longest time series at the individual level yet calculated from civil registration and census data. Abridged life tables were constructed for the first time for a Greek urban settlement, enabling the calculation of age-specific mortality rates and life expectancies. Hermoupolis experienced much higher mortality levels than the national average. The findings suggest that early childhood mortality started to decline rapidly from the late nineteenth century onwards, with declines in early adulthood and infancy following. The paper reinforces and confirms our limited knowledge about the timing of the mortality transition in Greece. It proposes that an urban penalty was clearly operating in the country even during the early twentieth century. Finally, this paper suggests that a combination of factors was responsible for the mortality decline in Hermoupolis, including wider access to water, which even when it was not clean enough to drink, nevertheless enabled improvements in personal hygiene among the residents of the city.     

我国城市营商环境的评价指标体系构建及其南北差异分析

我国经济发展南北差异较大,城市营商环境对于南北区域经济发展具有重要影响。基于生态系统理论,从公共服务、人力资源、市场环境、创新环境、金融服务、法治环境、政务环境七个维度构建我国城市营商环境评价指标体系,对我国南北区域的城市营商环境进行比较分析。结果表明,南方地区城市营商环境整体上优于全国平均水平,且南方地区城市间营商环境差异相对较大;北方地区城市的营商环境得分整体上低于南方地区、全国水平,但北方地区城市间营商环境差异相对较小。同时,在七个分项指标方面,南方地区城市得分全面高于北方地区城市。在优化区域城市营商环境方面,南方地区的城市要进一步打破城市间营商环境发展不均衡格局,建立城市间营商环境评比机制;北方地区的城市需依据区域特征制定更具针对性的优化城市营商环境的政策。     

Business Cycle Asymmetry in China： Evidence from Friedman＇s Plucking Model

Friedman＇s plucking model of business fluctuations suggests that output cannot exceed an upper limit, but it is occasionally ＂plucked＂ downward below trends as a result of economic recessions. This paper investigates China＇s business fluetuations using quarterly real GDP data for the period 1978 2009. Our results show some evidence supporting Friedman＇s plucking model. We find that a ceiling effect of real output exists, and that negative asymmetric shocks significantly affect the transitory component, which captures the plucking downward behavior during the recession. The results also suggest that the basic asymmetric unobserved component model is not appropriate for directly modeling China＇s real output because the business＂ cycle is inaccurately measured, but it works quite well when considering a structural break in the second quarter of 1992. The results reveal that although China＇s economy strengthened in the second quarter of 2009, it is essential for China＇s government to take further positive and effective measures to maintain sustainable development of the economy.     

长三角城市群网络化结构特征研究及实证分析

长三角城市群作为中国经济活动最活跃的地区之一,城市群网络化发展的将是长三角城市区域今后发展的主要特征.文章借鉴社会网络分析方法和城市引力模型,以长三角城市群16个中心城市间的经济联系为例,对长三角城市群网络的基本形式、结构属性和网络微观特征进行实证分析.研究发现长三角城市群经济关联具备了网络化规模,但内部各城市间联系不均衡性特征明显,多中心网络协同发展格局已初步形成;通过网络分析进一步提出为实现长三角城市群网络化发展的政策建议.     

高铁开通对区域创新格局的影响及其作用机制

交通基础设施是区域创新体系的重要组成部分,创新活动对交通基础设施具有内在依赖性。从理论上讲,作为联接不同城市的重要交通方式,高铁开通为城市创新活动提供了诸多便利条件,会促进高铁城市创新网络的形成,加快知识传播与溢出,提升城市创新水平,并缩小高铁城市之间创新差距。文章基于我国2003年至2016年285个城市面板数据,运用双重差分模型和空间面板计量模型,实证分析了高铁开通对区域创新空间格局的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,高铁开通提高了城市通达性,强化了高铁城市内部知识与技术溢出,带动了城市创新要素集聚,并对区域创新空间格局产生深刻影响。一方面,高铁开通对城市创新的影响具有"俱乐部效应",促进了高铁城市内部科技创新的均衡化发展,缩小高铁城市创新差距;另一方面,高铁开通也会强化高铁城市与非高铁城市科技创新的二元化发展趋势,拉大两者创新水平差距。     

The decline of adult smallpox in eighteenth-century London

Smallpox was probably the single most lethal disease in eighteenth-century Britain, but was a minor cause of death by the mid-nineteenth century. Although vaccination was crucial to the decline of smallpox, especially in urban areas, from the beginning of the nineteenth century, it remains disputed the extent to which smallpox mortality declined before vaccination. Analysis of age-specific changes in smallpox burials within the large west London parish of St Martin-in-the-Fields revealed a precipitous reduction in adult smallpox risk from the 1770s, and this pattern was duplicated in the east London parish of St Dunstan's. Most adult smallpox victims were rural migrants, and such a drop in their susceptibility is consistent with a sudden increase in exposure to smallpox in rural areas. We investigated whether this was due to the spread of inoculation, or an increase in smallpox transmission, using changes in the age patterns of child smallpox burials. Smallpox mortality rose among infants, and smallpox burials became concentrated at the youngest ages, suggesting a sudden increase in infectiousness of the smallpox virus. Such a change intensified the process of smallpox endemicization in the English population, but also made cities substantially safer for young adult migrants.     

城市主导产业识别及其空间集聚研究——以宁波市为例

城市主导产业是城市产业结构升级、经济格局优化的核心。为有效识别城市主导产业，构建基于产业波及效应、产业增长潜力及区域比较优势的主导产业识别方法，并采用TOPSIS方法判断各主导产业主导性大小。针对识别出的主导产业，采用核密度及标准差椭圆方法对其产业集聚进行研究。以宁波市为例，识别出3个主导产业门类，按其主导性排序为工业、交通运输/仓储和邮政业、商务服务业。进一步对主导性最强的工业展开分析，识别出5个工业细分行业主导产业，其排序为汽车制造业、化学原料和化学制品制造业、电气机械和器材制造业、有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、仪器仪表制造业。产业集聚分析结果显示：交通运输/仓储和邮政业、商务服务业主要在宁波市主城区范围内集聚分布；5个工业细分行业主导产业主要在宁波市中部主城区及北部余姚、慈溪两个县级市范围内集聚分布。     

Urbanization and mortality in Britain,c. 1800–50

In the long-running debate over standards of living during the industrial revolution, pessimists have identified deteriorating health conditions in towns as undermining the positive effects of rising real incomes on the ‘biological standard of living’. This article reviews long-run historical relationships between urbanization and epidemiological trends in England, and then addresses the specific question: did mortality rise especially in rapidly growing industrial and manufacturing towns in the period c. 1830–50? Using comparative data for British, European, and American cities and selected rural populations, this study finds good evidence for widespread increases in mortality in the second quarter of the nineteenth century. However, this phenomenon was not confined to ‘new’ or industrial towns. Instead, mortality rose in the 1830s especially among young children (aged one to four years) in a wide range of populations and environments. This pattern of heightened mortality extended between c. 1830 and c. 1870, and coincided with a well-established rise and decline in scarlet fever virulence and mortality. The evidence presented here therefore supports claims that mortality worsened for young children in the middle decades of the nineteenth century, but also indicates that this phenomenon was more geographically ubiquitous, less severe, and less chronologically concentrated than previously argued.     

Urban tourism in the developing world: The case of Johannesburg

Urban tourism has attracted a growing literature in the context of cities in the developed world. In this article, the role of urban tourism is explored in the developing world setting of Johannesburg. As in the case of the developed world, in Johannesburg the promotion of urban tourism is linked to economic regeneration and urban economic development. Johannesburg's tourism economy exhibits distinct geographical and sectoral clustering, with business tourism being the most vibrant subsector for tourism development. New development initiatives by both provincial and local government are seeking to further enhance the role of tourism in Johannesburg's economic development.     

The health cost of living in a city: The case of France at the end of the 19th century

Despite a long standing debate over urban living conditions during industrialization, the impact of rural–urban migrations on health and mortality remains an open question. We observe both mortality and geographical mobility in a large longitudinal dataset of French males and show that rural–urban migrants benefited from clear advantages over those who already lived in the city. However, this benefit fades in a few years. Further we find no evidence of a spike in mortality among rural migrants as they encountered the more severe disease environment of cities, instead it seems their initially superior physical human capital was depleted over time.     

长三角城市的贸易集聚效应与上海的贸易辐射效应研究

腹地依托是贸易中心城市崛起的一项重要条件,理清上海与长三角周边城市之间的贸易空间格局是上海国际贸易中心建设推进过程中的关键性命题.文章运用全局Moran指数和局部Moran指数对长三角16个城市的进出口空间相关性进行了测算.计算结果表明:长三角地区贸易整体发展具有空间集聚效应,以加工贸易为主导的贸易模式导致进口集聚效应大于出口集聚效应;长三角区域内部贸易空间集聚效应呈现多样化,上海和苏州呈现高-高集聚,但低-低集聚依旧是长三角地区当前最主要的贸易集聚类型;上海是目前长三角地区唯一一个时区域整体进出口具有空间辐射效应的城市,且辐射效应随着时间的推移正在不断增强;上海与宁波在带动长三角地区整体进出口发展层面不完全是纯粹的竞争关系;与此相反,随着南通港的全面启动,苏州却可能会对上海造成严峻挑战.     

中国城市人口密度过高了吗:经济增长的视角

优化人口分布空间格局、提高城镇化质量对未来保持经济增长的重要性不言而喻，但对于如何优化人口分布格局和提高城镇化质量，现有的文献存在持续争议。文章从经济发展的过程来讨论城市最优人口密度问题，认为各城市之间存在一种赶超现象，少数城市是吸收和转化国外技术的主要场所，是本国的增长前沿，其他城市通过接受前沿城市的溢出来实现增长，城市人口的最优密度与城市在宏观经济增长中的角色有关，人口密度对经济增长的影响随城市在经济发展中的作用不同而不同。借鉴发展经济学的理论，文章在一个赶超的框架下分析了人口密度对城市经济增长的影响，重点考察在靠近增长前沿和远离增长前沿的城市中人口密度对经济增长的影响是否存在差异。运用1999—2014年中国地级以上的城市数据，实证结果表明，对于靠近增长前沿的城市来说，人口密度的经济增长正效应更大；对于远离增长前沿的城市来说，人口密度的经济增长正效应更小或效应为负；进一步研究发现，城市人口密度对经济增长的这种非线性效应随着与增长前沿城市的空间距离和行政边界数量增加而衰减。文章结果意味着，限制增长前沿城市的人口密度将会对它们的经济增长产生负向影响。下一步城镇化的政策重点应该是对这些城市做好发展规划，在增加城市人口密度的同时，通过科学规划公共服务设施和交通基础设施的空间分布，从而控制这些城市的拥挤，而不是简单地限制人口进入和将人口分布在广阔的空间上。