A Cross-Section Analysis of the Determinants of Life Insurance Consumption in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan

This study examines some of the key factors affecting life insurance consumption in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. It also attempts to gain an understanding of the different characteristics of the market in life insurance in each territory. Income and life insurance consumption are found to be strongly correlated, which is consistent with previous studies. Education is a significant factor. Price is found to be insignificant, largely conflicting with previous studies. Levels of social security are not significantly related. The one-child policy in mainland China has a negative effect on life insurance consumption. Differences in the level of economic development reveal a variation in life insurance consumption. Generally, the more advanced the economy, the greater the life insurance consumption. However, mainland China, which is a low-income country, shows the greatest potential.     

Determinants of Consumption and Savings Behavior in Developing Countries

The determinants of savings generally and the specific effectsof government policies on savings and consumption are pivotalforces in investment and economic growth. The Hall hypothesisstates that consumption is a function of lifetime ("permanent")income, rather than income in each period independently. Changesin interest and tax rates, money supply, or government expenditurewill affect permanent income and hence consumption and savingsonly if they are unexpected and thus not already incorporatedin the estimation of permanent income. We are unable to rejectthe Hall hypothesis in tests for developing countries when weallow for varying interest rates. We do find evidence of a negativeeffect of inflation on consumption, and a positive relationshipbetween the real interest rate and consumption. The evidencefor the Hall hypothesis also suggests that Ricardian equivalencemay be valid—this is Barro's hypothesis that the effecton savings is the same whether government deficits are financedthrough taxation or debt. Our preliminary testing, however,does not support Ricardian equivalence.     

Government and Financial Institutional Determinants of Development in MENA Countries

ABSTRACT

This article aims to examine the causal impact of the Arab Spring (AS) and government institutions on the finance–growth nexus. The empirical analysis is implemented for extensive firm-level panel data combined with national data covering macroeconomic and institutional factors for the period 2005–2014, starting 6 years before and continuing after the AS. Using Difference-in-Difference method, we analyze the effect of the AS. Evidence points to financial development as a strong positive contributor to growth. The analysis also indicates that the AS dampens growth. These results seem to suggest that political instability adversely affects growth; nevertheless, a well-functioning financial system is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to enhance growth. Therefore, policies aiming at improving the efficiency and the operation of institutions such as a country’s legal system, citizen’s participation in selecting government, freedom of expression, and the stage of financial development should persist over an extended period of time, in order to bear fruition and achieve a significant success in boosting economic growth and reducing poverty.     

One-Period Model of Individual Consumption, Life Insurance, and Investment Decisions

This article studies individuals' optimal decisions on consumption, life insurance, and stock purchases in a one‐period framework. With exponential utility functions, individuals' life insurance and stock purchases are independent of each other; life insurance purchases are affected only by individuals' future income, bequest intensity, risk attitude, survival probability, and the insurance risk premium; stock purchases are affected only by individuals' risk attitude, the risk‐free rate of return, the stock return, and stock volatility. With power utility functions, life insurance and stock purchases are positively related with each other and are affected by all the factors.     

The Demand for Life Insurance in OECD Countries

This article examines the determinants of life insurance consumption in OECD countries. Consistent with previous results, we find a significant positive income elasticity of life insurance demand. Demand also increases with the number of dependents and level of education, and decreases with life expectancy and social security expenditure. The country's level of financial development and its insurance market's degree of competition appear to stimulate life insurance sales, whereas high inflation and real interest rates tend to decrease consumption. Overall, life insurance demand is better explained when the product market and socioeconomic factors are jointly considered. In addition, the use of GMM estimates helps reconcile our findings with previous puzzling results based on inconsistent OLS estimates given heteroscedasticity problems in the data.     

寿险对消费内需的作用机制研究

采用预防性储蓄研究框架,通过建立纳入不确定因素的效用函数模型,分析了寿险产品中年金产品和非年金产品影响消费内需的机制及效果,并对2010年中国各地区及世界主要国家的寿险业发展和消费内需水平进行了横向比较。本文的研究表明,寿险业对于消费内需的作用机制在于:通过"风险汇聚"和"损失分担"的机制,消除居民面临的损失、收入、支出以及寿命的不确定性,使居民对未来形成稳定的预期,从而降低居民的预防性储蓄,增加现期消费。因此,寿险业对于消费内需具有重要的拉动作用。     

Financial and Demographic Risks of a Portfolio of Life Insurance Policies with Stochastic Interest Rates

Abstract

We refer to a recent paper by G. Parker (1997) in which the risk of a portfolio of life insurance policies (namely the risk related to the entire contractual life) is studied by separating the demographic component from the financial component. In our paper, after making a brief summary of Parker’s model, we propose two additional contributions: 1. We first give the problem a different formalization, thus allowing a portfolio risk analysis by management periods and a study of the risk due to the interactions among years;

2. We elaborate on a powerful and flexible algorithm for calculating the probability distribution of the sum of random variables that proves useful to solve not only the problems discussed in this paper concerning the risk analysis but also various other problems.

In the paper, we also show, for both contributions, some applications made under the same financial and demographic assumptions taken by Parker; we also compare our results with Parker’s results.     

发达国家寿险次级市场的发展现状、比较及启示

寿险次级市场能够提高保险消费者的福利,促进整个保险业的发展。介绍发达国家寿险次级市场的发展概况,着重分析最早的寿险次级市场即英国市场、相对年轻的德国寿险次级市场以及规模最大的美国寿险次级市场,并对上述市场的目标保单、交易方式、监管规则、税收政策等进行比较和研究。在此基础上,明确提出中国应借鉴发达国家的经验,正确认识寿险次级市场的影响,从寿险初级市场规模、法律许可、中介机构、保险监管等方面为寿险次级市场的建立创造条件,并科学地进行寿险保单贴现交易的试点。     

寿险业和非寿险业与经济增长关系的经验分析

近几年我国经济高速发展,保险行业更是日新月异,两者之间存在着密切的相关关系,本文运用我国1994-2008年的经验数据分析了两者之间的确切关系,并且分析了寿险业和非寿险业由于运营杌理不同,两者对于经济的影响也截然不同.     

To Hedge or Not to Hedge: Managing Demographic Risk in Life Insurance Companies

Demographic risk, i.e., the risk that life tables change in a nondeterministic way, is a serious threat to the financial stability of an insurance company having underwritten life insurance and annuity business. The inverse influence of changes in mortality laws on the market value of life insurance and annuity liabilities creates natural hedging opportunities. Within a realistically calibrated shareholder value (SHV) maximization framework, we analyze the implications of demographic risk on the optimal risk management mix (equity capital, asset allocation, and product policy) for a limited liability insurance company operating in a market with insolvency‐averse insurance buyers. Our results show that the utilization of natural hedging is optimal only if equity is scarce. Otherwise, hedging can even destroy SHV. A sensitivity analysis shows that a misspecification of demographic risk has severe consequences for both the insurer and the insured. This result highlights the importance of further research in the field of demographic risk.     

The Determinants of Financial Derivatives Use in the United Kingdom Life Insurance Industry

This paper examines the determinants of financial derivatives use in the United Kingdom life insurance industry. We estimate a probit regression model and a Heckman two-stage sample selection regression model using a sample of eighty-eight U.K. life insurers in 1995. Our results indicate that the propensity to use derivative instruments is positively related to a firm's size, leverage and international links, and negatively related to the extent of reinsurance. We also find that mutual life insurance firms have a greater propensity than stock firms to use derivatives. The positive relation with leverage and the negative relation with reinsurance support the hypothesis that U.K. life insurers use derivatives to offset risk, rather than as a speculative means of income generation. Firm size and organizational form are the main influences on the extent of financial derivatives use.     

The Determinants of Private Debt Holdings: Evidence From the Life Insurance Industry

Life insurers hold the majority of private debt. Lenders in the private debt market must have the ability to evaluate the credit quality of borrowers and to perform ongoing risk monitoring. The purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of private debt holdings in the life insurance industry. The results suggest that larger insurers, insurers with higher financial quality, mutual insurers, publicly traded insurers, insurers facing stringent regulation, and insurers with greater cash holdings are more prevalent lenders in the private debt market.     

Non-Linearity Between Life Insurance and Economic Development: A Revisited Approach

This paper investigates the non-linear link between economic development and activities of the life insurance market. We ask whether the relevance of institutional environments on the development of the life insurance market is different across countries. Applying a novel threshold model with the instrumental variable approach, we find overwhelming evidence in support of an income threshold. Moreover, legal and political circumstances have an overwhelming positive effect on life insurance in low-income countries, but the effect is marginal in high-income countries. Our findings clearly demonstrate that the role of institutions on activities in the life insurance market diminishes with the evolvement of economic development.     

居民人身保险消费行为及其影响因素分析——基于粤东四市人身保险消费行为调查

保险消费是保险业发展的原始动力。深入了解居民保险消费心理和消费行为是有效开发我国潜在巨大保险需求市场的前提。本文在问卷调查的基础上,采用因子和聚类分析方法,对影响保险消费行为的因素和不同保险消费群体进行分析,得出收入水平是限制保险消费的基础因素,但行业在培育公众风险和保险意识、提供有效供给和优质服务方面仍大有可为。     

Demographic Factors and Price Distortions in Insurance

Few papers have analyzed the potential linkages between price distortions and the specific demographic and political traits of customers. The existence of price distortions may have adverse and potentially unintended impacts on certain demographic groups, leading to significant public policy concerns. The current study uses census tract data and rating factors to examine age, income, and race demographics in an effort to determine if any subgroups of the population are adversely impacted by the price distortions of property insurance. The results suggest that Hispanics, lower income households, and specific age groups pay relatively more for insurance coverage than comparison groups.     

经济政策不确定性对人寿保险需求的影响

根据背景风险理论推测,经济政策不确定性作为一类不可保的宏观政策风险,可能对保险需求变动产生影响。本文利用Baker等(2013)测算的中国经济政策不确定性指数,实证检验了经济政策不确定性对中国各省人寿保险需求变动的影响,以及在不同异质性条件下的影响差异。结果发现:第一,经济政策不确定性对寿险需求有显著正影响,且其在经济周期的不同阶段存在显著差异;第二,教育水平的提升会一定程度促进经济政策不确定性对寿险需求的正影响;第三,经济政策不确定性对不同类型寿险需求的影响存在差异,具有保障功能的普通寿险和投资收益灵活稳健的万能险需求受到显著正影响;最后,经济政策不确定性对人寿保险保费增长的影响主要集中在新单保费。因此,政府部门应在保证经济政策连贯性的同时,提升民众的教育水平和避险意识,引导其主动购买保险,尽量降低政策波动产生的影响,分类推进不同类型人寿保险市场的扩大。     

Determinants of No-Fault Insurance Measures

In spite of being touted as the panacea for rising premiums and unfair settlements, no‐fault automobile insurance provisions exist in fewer than one third of U.S. states. Few researchers have examined why such measures exist in some states but not in others. This article focuses directly on this issue by looking at the factors that help explain the type of no‐fault regime in place. The article conducts an empirical analysis using a data set that spans all 50 states over the 19‐year period from 1972 to 1990. Among other things, the analysis finds that the structure of the insurance industry and the type of rate regulation under which it operates are determinants of these decisions.     

Law and the Determinants of Property-Casualty Insurance

This article examines the importance of legal rights and enforcement in influencing property‐casualty insurance (PCI) consumption. We extend the existing literature by examining the role of legal factors in determining insurance density across countries. Also, measures of risk aversion, loss probability, and price, which overcome limitations of proxies used in the existing literature on insurance demand, are analyzed. Using a panel data set, we apply a generalized methods of moments dynamic system estimator, which relaxes the assumption of strict exogeneity of the regressors and produces unbiased and efficient estimates. The results show a strong positive relationship between the protection of property rights and insurance consumption, which is robust to various model specifications and estimation techniques. Moreover, the results show the purchase of PCI is significantly and positively related to loss probability and income, as well as providing weaker evidence of a negative relationship with price.     

Long-Term Care Insurance and Life Insurance Demand

This article investigates the interaction between life insurance and long-term care insurance markets on the demand side. In the model utility depends on both consumption and bequest, and utility from consumption is contingent on the state of health. While the demand for life insurance increases both with decreasing income and with a rising degree of altruism, the influences of these two parameters on the demand for long-term care insurance are ambiguous. If the utility shock arising from disability declines, both insurance demands will rise.