On the distance between cross-impact models: A set of metric measures for cross-impact analysis

This paper attempts to add to the Leibnizian or mathematical side of Technological Forecasting. Given two distinct cross impact models, the paper shows that there exists a set of appropriate metric measures such that the distance between any two cross impact models can be determined. That is, it is possible to say how close or how far apart two or more cross impact models are to one another. It is argued that the ability to make such determinations is vital to the formal and mathematical development and growth of Technological Forecasting.     

Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis

Cross-Impact methods are standard tools of the scenario technique. They provide a number of structured processes for the deduction of plausible developments of the future in the form of rough scenarios and are based on expert judgments about systemic interactions. Cross-Impact methods are mostly used for analytical tasks which do not allow the use of theory-based computational models due to their disciplinary heterogeneity and the relevance of “soft” system knowledge, but on the other hand are too complex for a purely argumentative systems analysis. The essentials of a new Cross-Impact approach (Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, CIB) are outlined; it is of high methodological flexibility and is especially suitable for the use in expert discourses due to its transparent analytical logic. Due to its mathematical qualities it is also particularly well suited for the analytical integration of calculable system parts. An application of CIB to a project on the generation of electricity and climate protection is described. For a theoretical foundation of the CIB method relations to systems theory, especially to the theory of dynamic systems, are discussed. This explicates that CIB scenarios correspond to the solutions of slowly time-varying pair-force systems.     

Time-dependent event cross-impact analysis: Results from a new model

This time-dependent event cross-impact model involves four stages. In the first stage, an undisturbed world view, prior to new information being obtained, is projected for a set of events to occur with specified probability densities over an indefinite time horizon. In the second stage, the estimator fills in the cells of a cross-impact matrix with qualitative estimates of the strength and direction of the impacts. Qualitative cross-impacts are converted to aaquantitative form by the analyst conducting the excercise. In the third stage, it is assumed that new information becomes known to the estimator causing him to project anew the time-dependent probabilities of the events in the set. In the fourth and final stage, an event cross-impact simulation model is constructed in system dynamics and run to produce new probability densities of the event set. These densities take into account both the cross-impacts between events and the effect of the newly obtained information. The possible results include both shifts of the most likely time of occurence and changes in the cumulative probability of the events. The chief usefulness of the model is that it provides a method of foreshortening the time required by decision-makers to take into account the effect of new information on the probability of events occuring over a time period.     

A cross-impact model applicable to forecasts for long-range planning

A methodology is developed, which is based on cross-impact analysis and which is useful in estimating the effects of uncertainty in future sales programs and the effects of program interaction on long-range sales forecasts. The utility of the cross-impact methodology vis-a-vis the conventional decision-tree approach lies in the reduction of complexity made possible when a large number of programs must be considered.     

A qualitative cross-impact approach to find the key technology

This article presents a qualitative analysis method based on fuzzy relations for a cross-impact model designed for a technology impact assessment. The cross-impact knowledge is often uncertain or fuzzy when dealing with future events. Assessing the cross-impact relationships among future technologies creates a more uncertain or fuzzy situation because of the time and the uncertainty involved in evaluating future technologies. In addition, experts prefer to use linguistic terms or fuzzy values in their predictions. Thus a cross-impact matrix is represented as fuzzy relations on causal concepts. We therefore develop inference algorithms based on fuzzy relations and show a simple technology assessment example to illustrate this approach. This approach is useful in finding the key technology because it considers not only the direct impact but also the indirect impact.     

Scenarios of air transport development to 1990 by SMIC 74—A new cross-impact method

The purpose of this paper is to describe the results of the application of the SMIC 74 method to a study of the air transport development in the Paris area to 1990. SMIC 74 is a new cross-impact method that provides three kinds of results: (a) Consistent information on the events that may occur and influence the evolution of air transport, (b) Cardinal ranking of the possible air transport development scenarios, (c) Sensitivity analysis. This method helps the decision-maker to choose between alternative strategies. For more detailed information the reader should refer to [1–3, 5].     

Assessing the readiness of the BRICS grouping for mutually beneficial financial integration

This paper assesses the extent of transmission of volatility shocks in the equity and foreign exchange markets among BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries to infer the degree of risk sharing and the possibility of a beneficial financial integration among its member countries. To this end, the paper makes use of the spillover index methodology suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz ( 2012 ). Nonetheless, the paper extends this methodology by incorporating ex ante volatility measures that account for long memory in equity and foreign exchange markets. The paper finds asymmetric influences among BRICS countries in relation to the cross transmission of risks. The finding of the paper implies the possibility of unequal benefit that could result from a possible capital market liberalization between the BRICS countries.     

The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

关联方交易监管:充分公开

本文认为,上市公司关联方交易的存在有利也有弊。不公允性是关联方交易的本质特征,因此,对关联方交易的监管重点不应放在禁止不公允关联方交易的发生上,也不宜放在对关联方交易的显失公允价格的会计处理上。关联方交易监管的重点应当是保证关联方交易的充分公开,保证公司现在的中小股东能参与公司关联方交易的决策和日常监督,保证公司的投资者、债权人、监管者及其他有关人士能及时、全面、如实地获悉公司关联方交易的相关信息。     

Arena-based events and crime: an analysis of hourly robbery data

This article makes use of hourly crime counts to model the relationship between events that take place at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ and robberies, an arena that has caused local controversy regarding the costs and benefits of hosting such an entertainment venue. Results from the econometric model suggest that the NHL’s New Jersey Devils ice hockey games, concerts, and Disney-themed events are all associated with increases in robbery, while various other event categories such as the NBA basketball games played by the Nets and boxing, and mixed martial arts (MMA) matches are not associated with an increase. These findings support two complementary ecological theories of crime that focus on how events provide additional opportunities for crime by increasing the associated benefits while simultaneously decreasing the cost for economically motivated offenders to take advantage of.     

A cost-effectiveness analysis of denosumab for the prevention of skeletal-related events in patients with multiple myeloma in the United States of America

Objective: A large, pivotal, phase 3 trial in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) demonstrated that denosumab, compared with zoledronic acid, was non-inferior for the prevention of skeletal-related events (SREs), extended the observed median progression-free survival (PFS) by 10.7 months, and showed significantly less renal toxicity. The cost-effectiveness of denosumab vs zoledronic acid in MM in the US was assessed from societal and payer perspectives.

Methods: The XGEVA Global Economic Model was developed by integrating data from the phase 3 trial comparing the efficacy of denosumab with zoledronic acid for the prevention of SREs in MM. SRE rates were adjusted to reflect the real-world incidence. The model included utility decrements for SREs, administration, serious adverse events (SAEs), and disease progression. Drug, administration, SRE management, SAEs, and anti-MM treatment costs were based on data from published studies. For the societal perspective, the model additionally included SRE-related direct non-medical costs and indirect costs. The net monetary benefit (NMB) was calculated using a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$150,000. One-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results: From a societal perspective, compared with zoledronic acid, the use of denosumab resulted in an incremental cost of US$26,329 and an incremental quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of 0.2439, translating into a cost per QALY gained of US$107,939 and a NMB of US$10,259 in favor of denosumab. Results were sensitive to SRE rates and PFS parameters.

Limitations: Costs were estimated from multiple sources, which varied by tumor type, patient population, country, and other parameters. PFS and overall survival were extrapolated beyond the follow-up of the primary analysis using fitted parametric curves.

Conclusion: Denosumab’s efficacy in delaying or preventing SREs, potential to improve PFS, and lack of renal toxicity make it a cost-effective option for the prevention of SREs in MM compared with zoledronic acid.     

On the relationship between oil price and exchange rates: A wavelet analysis

We may find numerous works in the existing literature regarding the cohesion between oil prices and exchange rates, yet an exact shape of the relationship remains undefined. By restoring to wavelet analysis and using a rich database from Japan, this study contributes to the literature by investigating the said relationship within the time–frequency space. Over the time horizon, it is being established that the strength of the relationship between oil price and exchange rate keeps changing. If the Bank of Japan needs to control the exchange rate, it should give proper importance to shocks on oil prices, while formulating exchange rate policy.     

Partner country selection between development narratives and self-interests: A new method for analysing complex donor approaches

Partner country (PC) selection lies in the centre of development policy decision-making of donor countries and institutions, and plays a significant role in shaping aid patterns. This paper proposes a comprehensive analysis contrasting donor intentions in PC selection with actual aid flows. Having analysed selected members of the Development Assistance Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, namely, the European Union, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States of America, we suggest that (1) donors might not only be either altruistic or self-interested but also motivated by an intention to contribute to the provision of global public goods; (2) self-interest in aid provision can be an explicitly-stated strategy, contrary to what has been argued in the majority of the literature, which often treats self-interest as a non-stated donor intention; and (3) donors' self-interested intentions do not always lead to a less development-oriented donor approach.     

Testing the relationship between competition and efficiency in banking: A panel data analysis

The relationship between competition and efficiency in the banking sectors of five EU countries is investigated using Granger-type causality test estimations. We find positive causation between market power and efficiency, whereas the causality running from efficiency to competition is weak.     

Examining the link between crime and unemployment: a time-series analysis for Canada

We use national and regional Canadian data to analyse the relationship between economic activity (as reflected by the unemployment rate) and crime rates. Given potential aggregation bias, we disaggregate the crime data and look at the relationship between six different types of crimes rates and unemployment rate; we also disaggregate the data by region. We employ an error correction model in our analysis to test for short-run and long-run dynamics. We find no evidence of long-run relationship between crime and unemployment, when we look at both disaggregation by type of crime and disaggregation by region. Lack of evidence of a long-run relationship indicates we have no evidence of the motivation hypothesis. For selected types of property crimes, we find some evidence of a significant negative short-run relationship between crime and unemployment, lending support to the opportunity hypothesis. Inclusion of control variables in the panel analysis does not alter the findings, qualitatively or quantitatively.     

A time series analysis of causality between aggregate merger and stock prices: the case of Canada

It is widely agreed that a positive relationship exists between measures of aggregate merger activity and measures of stock market performance, at least for the USA. Evidence from other countries is relatively sparse. in this paper we pursue the causality question using Canadian data. Most of the previous studies used only a bivariate system (merger and stock prices). We have extended the analysis to trivariate system (merger, stock prices and interest rate) to better reflect the capital market conditions argument for changes in merger activity. The results suggest a bidirectional causality between mergers and stock prices.     

A cost-effectiveness analysis of denosumab for the prevention of skeletal-related events in patients with multiple myeloma in four European countries: Austria,Belgium, Greece,and Italy

Aim: The approved indication for denosumab (120?mg) was expanded in 2018 to include skeletal-related event (SRE) prevention in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). Therefore, a cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted comparing denosumab with zoledronic acid (ZA) for SRE prevention in patients with MM from the national healthcare system perspective in a representative sample of European countries: Austria, Belgium, Greece, and Italy.

Methods: The XGEVA global economic model for patients with MM was used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for denosumab vs ZA over a lifetime horizon. Clinical inputs were derived from the denosumab vs ZA randomized, phase 3 study (“20090482”) in patients newly-diagnosed with MM, and comprised real-world adjusted SRE rates, serious adverse event (SAE) rates, treatment duration, dose intensity, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). Economic inputs comprised country-specific denosumab and ZA acquisition and administration costs, SRE and SAE management costs, and discount rates. Health utility decrements associated with MM disease progression, SRE and SAE occurrence, and route of administration were included.

Results: Estimated ICERs (cost per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained) for denosumab vs ZA in Austria, Belgium, Greece, and Italy were €26,294, €17,737, €6,982, and €27,228, respectively. Using 1–3 times gross domestic product (GDP) per capita per QALY as willingness to pay thresholds, denosumab was 69–94%, 84–96%, 79–96%, and 50–92% likely to be cost-effective vs ZA, respectively.

Limitations: Economic inputs were derived from various sources, and time to event inputs were extrapolated from 20090482 study data.

Conclusions: Denosumab is cost-effective vs ZA for SRE prevention in patients with MM in Austria, Belgium, Greece, and Italy, based on often-adopted World Health Organization thresholds. This conclusion is robust to changes in model parameters and assumptions. Cost-effectiveness estimates varied across the four countries, reflecting differences in healthcare costs and national economic evaluation guidelines.