中国林业碳汇项目的需求分析与设计思路

随着世界各国应对气候变化谈判的不断深入和我国环境治理力度的加强,林业碳汇项目的地位和作用日益上升。因此,如何更好地促进林业碳汇项目的发展已成为我国林业建设的一项新工作。文章介绍了林业碳汇项目的相关背景,分析了中国林业碳汇项目的类型和需求。在此基础上,对如何更加有效地设计未来的林业碳汇项目提出了几点建议。     

中国林业碳汇市场期货交易产品设计研究

目前我国碳交易市场仍处于发展初期,碳产品仅限于碳排放配额、自愿减排量等碳现货,由碳期货带来的套期保值、规避风险等功能也让渡给了国外投资者。因此,分析北京环境交易所的产品类型以及所存在问题,可为我国借鉴欧洲碳期货市场的构架提供理论依据和支撑。从而设计符合中国碳交易市场发展现状的碳期货产品,丰富国内碳产品类型,进一步活跃市场,满足不同需要,降低市场的风险。     

The Time Path and Implementation of Carbon Sequestration

We develop a dynamic model to investigate the optimal time paths of carbon emissions, sequestration, and the carbon stock. We show that carbon sinks should be utilized as early as possible, and carbon flow into sinks should last until the atmospheric carbon concentration is stabilized. We rule out any cyclical patterns of carbon sequestration and release. We propose and assess three mechanisms to efficiently introduce sequestration into a carbon permit trading market: a pay-as-you-go system, a variable-length-contract system and a carbon annuity account system. Although the three mechanisms may not be equally feasible to implement, they are all efficient.     

我国森林碳汇市场构建的研究

随着气候变暖趋势的到来,对森林碳汇市场这种新兴市场的研究,在国际上已经迅速开展起来。然而,在我国,森林碳汇市场并未得到其应有的发展。在阐述了森林碳汇市场在我国建立的必要性与可行性、发展优势与市场建立的障碍以及发展的巨大潜力的基础上,从五个方面分析了森林碳汇市场的运行机制,提出了构建我国森林碳汇市场的具体措施和建议。     

Carbon Sequestration in Agricultural Soils: Discounting for Uncertainty

The study presents a conceptual model of an aggregator who selectively pays farmers for altering farming practices in exchange for carbon offsets that the change in practices generates. Under the assumption that the offsets are stochastic and that the aggregator maximizes the sum of the offsets from the purchase that he/she can rightfully claim with a specified level of confidence subject to a budget constraint, we investigate the optimal discounting of expected carbon offsets. We use the model to empirically estimate of the optimal discounting levels and costs for a hypothetical carbon purchasing project in the Upper Iowa River basin.     

国内外林业碳汇项目最新进展及对策探讨

简述了林业碳汇项目的国际背景、清洁发展机制和林业碳汇项目的产生过程。阐述了林业碳汇项目的主要共识。分析了林业碳汇项目在非持久性、基准线和额外性、项目边界和泄漏、不确定性等方面存在的分歧。概述了中国开展与林业碳汇项目相关的工作,包括启动中国陆地生态系统碳循环研究、实施国内林业碳汇试点项目、营造“碳汇问题”研究学术氛围等。提出了相关对策和建议:积极参与气候变化领域的国际活动;采取妥善的应对策略,确保我国生态安全;重视林业碳汇项目及碳交易的政策研究;加强林业碳汇项目科学问题的深入研究。     

碳交易市场林业碳汇供给博弈分析

运用博弈模型,探讨了地方政府碳汇供给政策与林业经营者行为之间的博弈关系,并量化分析了双方行为变化对彼此收益的影响和最终均衡收益。研究结果表明:企业购买林业碳汇积极性、地方政府林业碳汇供给扶持政策都对林业经营者碳汇供给行为产生重要影响。因此,提出全面制定林业碳汇供给扶持政策和积极构建林业碳汇需求激励机制的对策建议:制定全面的林业碳汇供给扶持制度,积极构建林业碳汇需求激励机制。     

对我国碳汇林业发展之思考

在我国碳汇林业发展历程和发展现状的基础上分析在发展过程中遇到的集体林权制度改革等政策风险、交易与管理缺失导致的投资短缺问题、专业技术和人才缺失的技术壁垒和自然风险等一系列障碍,进而从问题根源角度提出了依国情落实相关政策和标准,规范交易机制管理机制,拓宽投资渠道,提高公民生态意识,加强碳汇林业多元化发展的建议。     

碳汇林业融资机制研究

针对碳汇林业投入不足的问题,借鉴传统林业融资方式,提出了构建碳汇林业融资机制,包括碳交易平台融资、商业贷款融资、产业投资基金融资、资本市场融资以及BOT系列项目融资等途径和方式,同时对融资项目风险进行了分析,并从财政补贴、政策性保险、林权配套改革和林产品市场等4个方面构建碳汇林业融资保障体系,以解决碳汇林业融资过程中的问题,以及为保障融资机制的有效运行做好准备。     

An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration

This study develops an optimal control model of carbon sequestration and energy abatement to explore the potential role of forests in greenhouse gas mitigation. The article shows that if carbon accumulates in the atmosphere, the rental price for carbon sequestration should rise over time. From an empirical model, we find that carbon sequestration is costly, but that landowners can sequester substantial amounts of carbon in forests mainly by increasing forestland and lengthening rotations. Forest sequestration is predicted to account for about one-third of total carbon abatement. Tropical forests store over two-thirds of this added carbon.     

林业碳汇供给稳定性的演化博弈分析

通过构建演化博弈模型详细地剖析了林业经营者和地方政府博弈系统的演化稳定策略及其演化过程。研究结果表明:林业碳汇项目的前期和后期成本、相关扶持政策的有效性以及扶持成本等因素会影响博弈系统的演化方向,进而影响林业碳汇供给的稳定性。为提高林业碳汇供给的稳定性,地方政府应制定切实有效且精简的林业碳汇扶持政策,林业经营者应有效发挥其自主能动性。     

Carbon Sequestration and Conservation of Tropical Forests Under Uncertainty

Concern for global warming has focused attention on the role of tropical forests in the reduction of ambient CO₂ levels and mitigation of climate change. Deforestation is a major land use change in the tropics, with forest resources undergoing degradation through the influence of logging and conversion to other uses. Land use change is a product of varied local and regional resource use policies. Management of forest resources is one such major temporal factor, influencing resource stability and the carbon pool. Under a given management policy, both the long period of forest growth, and the slow turnover and decay of the carbon pool, enhance the relevance of stand level management policies as cost-effective mechanisms mitigating climate change. Apart from regional level uncertainties like the nature of land use and the estimation of carbon storage in vegetation and soil, the carbon flux of tropical forests is greatly influenced by uncertainty in regenerative capacity of forests and in harvest and management policies. A case study from India is used to develop a transition matrix model of natural forest management, and to explore the economic implications of maintaining and expanding existing carbon sinks. The study further explores the significance of investments in additional carbon sinks in plantation forests, given continued uncertainty in natural forest management.     

森林碳汇价值与农户林业收入增长的分析

根据福建省顺昌县农户林业收入的调查数据,从林产品收入、林业服务性收入、林地地租收入、生态公益林补偿收入、其他涉林收入等方面对农户林业收入构成进行分析,发现森林生态效益在农户林业收入中的贡献非常小,仅占0.18%;以现有碳汇市场为参考,通过森林蓄积量换算因子法估算出该县的森林碳汇量及其碳汇价值,指出森林碳汇价值的实现可以有效地增加农户林业生态收入、改善农户的林业收入结构;并探讨了农户森林碳汇价值实现的途径。     

我国"非京都规则"森林碳汇市场构建研究

由于市场容量固定、操作复杂,“京都规则”森林碳汇市场不可能成为解决我国林业生态效益补偿的主要方式。借鉴“京都规则”森林碳汇市场的成功经验,积极建设我国“非京都规则”的森林碳汇市场,应是森林碳汇市场发展的重点。研究了构建“非京都规则”森林碳汇市场的必要性,以及扩大森林碳汇需求、保证森林碳汇供给和规范森林碳汇市场交易秩序的具体措施。     

The Dynamic Competitiveness of U.S. Agricultural and Forest Carbon Sequestration

Society is increasingly turning attention toward greenhouse gas emission control with for example the Kyoto Protocol has entered into force. Since many of the emissions come from energy use, high cost strategies might be required until new technological developments reduce fossil fuel dependency or increase energy utilization efficiency. On the other hand biologically based strategies may be used to offset energy related emissions. Agricultural soil and forestry are among the largest carbon reservoirs on the planet; therefore, agricultural and forest activities may help to reduce the costs of greenhouse gas emission mitigation. However, sequestration exhibits permanence related characteristics that may influence this role. We examine the dynamic role of carbon sequestration in the agricultural and forest sectors can play in mitigation. A 100-year mathematical programming model, depicting U.S. agricultural and forest sectoral activities including land transfers and greenhouse gas consequences is applied to simulate potential mitigation response. The results show that at low cost and in the near term agricultural soil and forest management are dominant sectoral responses. At higher prices and in the longer term biofuels and afforestation take over. Our results reveal that the agricultural and forest sector carbon sequestration may serve as an important bridge to the future helping to hold costs down until energy emissions related technology develops.     

基于碳汇的云南退耕还林工程生态补偿研究

以碳汇为生态指标,结合县域经济发展水平、县级政府支付能力、县域经济中农业贡献率、农户后续生机情况等社会经济指标,采用相对比较法确定指标权重,采用线性比例变换法规范指标值,然后对云南省实施退耕还林工程的129个县(区)进行综合评价,根据评价结果将之分为3个等级,建议不同等级的县(区)实施不同的补偿额度,同一等级内实施不同的补偿方式。