基于灰色关联分析的商业银行贷款损失拨备计提研究

贷款损失拨备计提对防范商业银行的经营风险,提高商业银行经营的稳定性具有十分重要的作用.本文在对已有的几种典型的贷款损失拨备计提方法即现金流折现法、动态准备金法、压力测试准备金法和基于马尔科夫链迁移矩阵的贷款损失准备金法进行分析的基础上,运用灰色关联的相关理论,提出了一种新的基于灰色关联分析的商业银行贷款损失拨备计提方法,并对其适用性进行了详细的论证,本研究将为完善我国商业银行风险管理体系,提高风险管理效率提供必要的理论支撑和实践依据.     

预期损失在贷款定价和准备金计提中的应用差异及影响

随着风险管理水平的提高和风险计量工具的推广,国内商业银行开始使用预期损失这一指标来衡量信用风险的大小,并以此作为贷款定价和准备金计提的主要依据和重要参考。本文从预期损失的原理出发,通过对比其在贷款定价和准备金计提中的应用差异,试图揭示当前银行利润背后可能存在的风险隐患,并向监管部门、商业银行以及社会公众提出相应的应对建议。     

商业银行贷款损失准备计提的会计处理

在不确定性的作用下，商业银行贷款会面临风险.提取贷款损失准备，是商业银行应对风险的常见措施。由于产权制度的不同，我国商业银行在贷款损失准备计提的会计处理上没有遵循国际通行的做法，贷款损失准备金计提明显不足，利润虚增普遍而且严重，累积了较大的流动性风险.     

我国商业银行贷款减值准备计提存在问题与对策

商业银行的资产业务,尤其是贷款业务逼常面临着较多的风险。为了应付可能发生的损失避免陷入经营困境或破产,商业银行需要在估计风险和损失的基础上提取资产损失准备金。对贷款计提损失准备,虽然已经成为一种国际惯例,但是,由于各国的情况千差万别,各国商业银行在贷款减值准备计提的会计处理上也有所不同。本文在分析我国商业银行贷款减值准备现状的基础上提出了存在的问题并给出了一些对策。     

论商业银行贷款损失准备计提的会计处理

商业银行的资产业务，尤其是贷款业务，通常会面临着较多的风险。为了应付可能发生的损失，避免陷入经营困境或出现破产状况，商业银行需要在估计风险和损失的基础上，提取资产损失准备金。对贷款计提损失准备，虽然已经成为一种国际惯例，但是，由于各国的情况千差万别，各国商业银行在贷款损失准备计提的会计处理上也有所不同。     

对商业银行贷款拨备工作的思考

拨备是商业银行预先从当期损益中拨提相应准备金,用于弥补其各项资产面值与预计可收回金额之间的风险补偿金,不良贷款拨备率是监管机构衡量商业银行贷款损失准备金计提是否充足、抵御风险能力强弱的一个重要指标。     

贷款损失准备计提与商业银行经营风险相关性研究 ——基于经理自主权视角

贷款损失准备的计提作为商业银行调节会计利润的手段,是否对商业银行经营风险有影响,是一个值得探讨的问题。基于我国上市商业银行2007-2017年的数据为研究样本进行实证分析,研究结果表明：贷款损失准备对商业银行经营风险有正向信号传递作用。其中,基于经理自主权计提的自由裁量部分能缓释经营风险,非自由裁量部分对经营风险产生加速放大效应,从而证明了自由裁量贷款损失准备能增强银行风险承担能力,为商业银行经理人员和监管者合理规范计提准备金提供新思路。     

论我国贷款损失准备监管与会计准则协调

贷款损失准备是商业银行根据贷款损失程度计提的、用于冲抵贷款风险的准备金。本文介绍我国贷款损失准备计提监管和会计政策沿革,分析现行拨备监管政策与会计准则的差异及其影响,并借鉴国际会计准则理事会和西班牙动态拨备机制的协调经验,提出协调我国贷款损失准备监管政策与会计准则的建议。     

商业银行贷款损失准备金的会计探析

经济全球化的不断深入是我国的经济不断得到发展,使得金融业的发展越来越快,对经济的发展也做出了重要的贡献;各金融机构为经济的发展提供了强大的资金支持,其中,处于核心地位的就属商业银行了。商业银行不但是重要的金融机构而且还可以作为一个会计主体。在商业银行的众多资产业务中,最具有高风险性的业务就是贷款业务。因此,如何合理地对商业银行贷款损失准备金计提的问题是人们一直以来关心的一个重要问题。本文就对我国商业银行贷款损失准备金的会计进行探索,并提出各种合理化的建议,找到一种最适合我国国情的商业银行贷款损失准备金的会计处理方式。     

商业银行贷款损失准备金的会计探析

经济全球化的不断深入是我国的经济不断得到发展,使得金融业的发展越来越快,对经济的发展也做出了重要的贡献;各金融机构为经济的发展提供了强大的资金支持,其中,处于核心地位的就属商业银行了。商业银行不但是重要的金融机构而且还可以作为一个会计主体。在商业银行的众多资产业务中,最具有高风险性的业务就是贷款业务。因此,如何合理地对商业银行贷款损失准备金计提的问题是人们一直以来关心的一个重要问题。本文就对我国商业银行贷款损失准备金的会计进行探索,并提出各种合理化的建议,找到一种最适合我国国情的商业银行贷款损失准备金的会计处理方式。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.