The Paradoxes of Thailand's Pre-crisis Export Performance

Abstract

Starting from the observation that Thailand succeeded in developing its exports in a spectacular way in the decades preceding the 1997 financial crisis, the author points to a number of apparent paradoxes that become apparent when looking at Thai trade policies in detail. For example, Thai trade policy was characterized by an anti-export bias, the causal effect of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on exports could not clearly be demonstrated, and the effects of discriminatory tariff reductions were apparently very poor. Elements of an explanation are suggested.     

政府强制下股市不暴涨才怪

进入2007年,中国股市的暴涨吸引了全球目光。一些人说是因为中国经济持续健康增长,企业投资回报超预期增长;也有人将原因归结于股改的基本成功;但更多人认为是流动性泛滥所致。或许以上原因都是存在的。但经济快速增长并不意味着股票普遍翻倍上     

Dutch disease economics and the Colombian export boom

Dutch disease models predict a primary export boom may result in deindustrialization due to an appreciating real exchange rate. This paper examines the effects on the Colombian economy of large increases in foreign exchange earnings from coffee and illegal drug exports. As predicted by Dutch disease models, the relative price of nontraded goods rose and the real exchange rate appreciated. Once the boom was over, both were slow to return to previous levels. Nontraded sectors are shown to have increased their growth rates during the boom years, while traded goods experienced slower growth. Non-coffee exports also grew more slowly. Econometric estimation shows that the real exchange rate was sensitive to the price of coffee and fiscal expansion, that sectoral production adjusts to the exchange rate and level of absorption as predicted, and that non-coffee exports respond to changes in the real exchange rate and foreign demand. The paper concludes with a discussion of economic policy in response to the export boom.     

Easterlin revisited: Relative income and the baby boom

This paper reexamines the first viable and a still leading explanation for mid-twentieth century baby booms: Richard Easterlin's relative income hypothesis. He suggested that when incomes are higher than material aspirations (formed in childhood), birth rates would rise. This paper uses microeconomic data to formulate a measure of an individual's relative income. The use of microeconomic data allows the researcher to control for both state fixed effects and cohort fixed effects, both have been absent in previous examinations of Easterlin's hypothesis. The results of the empirical analysis are consistent with Easterlin's assertion that relative income influenced fertility decisions, although the effect operates only through childhood income. When the estimated effects are contextualized, they explain 12% of the U.S. baby boom.     

希腊危机与欧洲主权信用危机

迪拜危机连累了欧洲,进而引发了希腊危机。希腊危机背后不仅是欧元危机,更是美国债务危机。全面危机的爆发,将引起欧洲主权信用危机     

大清国股市浮沉

汇丰银行的门前人声鼎沸,初春的外滩还有些许寒意,但丝毫没有影响人们的热情。在资本和欲望面前,拖着长辫子的中国人与短发的洋人、衣着光鲜的“中产阶级”和短打装束的贩夫走卒,实现了平等。为了便于在人潮中推挤,很多中国人将脑后的辫子盘在了头顶,像座富士山。无数的“富士山”都努力向着汇丰银行的大门挪动,俗称为“红头阿三”的印度巡捕们,在努力维持着秩序。汇丰大楼顶上的英国国旗,在黄浦江的江风吹拂下,呼啦啦地飘扬着。     

中国参与国际金融危机治理与西方危机治理模式的比较

与以"华盛顿共识"为代表的西方金融危机治理模式相比,中国参与国际金融危机治理有着自身独特的理念和行为方式,并能够在治理实践中不断拓展和深化。通过两者的对比分析,在借鉴西方有益经验和摒弃失误局限的基础上,中国才能在参与国际金融危机治理过程中发挥自身的优势、做出建设性的贡献。     

Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union

The success of the integration process of the new EU Member States is reflected by the convergence performance. Sustainable convergence assumes that potential growth rates of the less developed countries continuously exceed the dynamics of the potential output of the developed countries. However, the financial and economic crisis of 2008 has resulted in a fundamentally new situation as regards these issues. This paper considers real convergence, catch-up processes and in terms of these the main economic growth trends. The study focuses mainly on the potential growth trends. The recession has, however, affected the individual countries to different degrees. The study classified the Member States into four groups based on the initial circumstances and the vulnerability originating from them; these are ‘Developed’ countries and ‘Convergence’ countries, three groups of the latter are ‘Mediterranean’ countries, ‘Catch-up’ countries and ‘Vulnerable’ countries. Potential growth and the contribution of the individual growth factors might follow significantly different paths in these country groups. The convergence countries might face especially great challenges. Potential growth rate of the ‘Convergence’ countries—according to simulations—is expected to recover less in the mid-term, than that of the ‘Developed’ countries, i.e. convergence slows down, it might come to a halt or even divergence might occur in certain countries. It might result in a ‘Convergence Crisis’ particularly in certain ‘Mediterranean’ and ‘Vulnerable’ new Member States. Also, longer term simulations indicate that the European convergence processes might slow down and stop in certain countries. These trends may have significant effects on economic policies facilitating potential growth. We apply extensive quantitative analysis, production function and growth accounting approaches in the study.     

泰国97'金融危机与06'金融动荡背后的经济模式分析

本文以泰国新政引发的金融动荡为契机,对比分析了1997年金融危机和2006年金融动荡背后的泰国经济模式,揭示了出口导向型经济与双轨型经济在泰国的发展与存在的问题,通过梳理两次金融事件所反映的深层次问题以加深对泰国金融、经济的认识,从而为我国所借鉴与启示。     

家乐福关店危机的背后

近期,有关家乐福的各种负面传闻不断：海外市场接连溃退,中国内地风波四起。曾经风光无限、中国第一的零售巨头有点儿“乐”不起来了     

家乐福的危机

法国家乐福集团是大卖场业态的首创者,欧洲第一大零售商,世界第二大围际化零售连锁集团。进入2010年以来,家乐福的在华危机开始显现：3月22日,大连家乐福新华绿洲店正式关店,     

金融危机与稽税风暴

高泓在一家企业做财务总监,可最近一段时间怎么也高兴不起来。今年工作特别忙,其中,相当一部分时间都在和税务部门打交道,经常开会,还要接待税务部门的稽查人员,并准备相关材料,等等。     

虚拟经济视野下的次贷危机与美元危机解析

本文首先分析了美元全球环流过程导致世界流动性膨胀以及美国经济虚拟化的机制,指出美国虚拟经济和实体经济的背离是次贷危机和美元危机的深层次根源.其次阐述了美国次贷金融危机与美元危机的区别,进而从美国次贷危机的救助措施、境外投资者力量以及欧元竞争币种的出现,分析美元危机扩大的必然性.     

The Korean stock market volatility during the currency crisis and the credit crisis

This paper studies the volatility of the Korean stock market during the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998 and the global credit crisis of 2008–2009. We use a fad model with Markov switching heteroskedasticity, which was first proposed by Kim and Kim (1996). Using the monthly data from January 1980 to October 2009, we find that the volatility of the transitory component of the stock return, or fads, increased during the currency crisis, but did not rise much during the credit crisis. It implies that the stock price fluctuations were not driven by irrational sentiments during the recent global crisis as much as during the former crisis. However, when we consider the dollar value of the Korean stock index in order to estimate the volatility that foreign investors confront, we find that the volatility of the transitory component was raised during the credit crisis as well as during the currency crisis. That is, foreign investors experienced greater volatility than domestic investors in the recent financial market turmoil. This asymmetric volatility that domestic and foreign investors face is one of the characteristics of the credit crisis.For more detailed analysis, the same model was applied to the weekly data from January 2005 to October 2009 and provided the result that the data measured by won–dollar exchange rates were more increased than the raw data. It holds that foreign investors confronted much greater volatility than domestic investors while the stock volatility was relatively lower in the credit crisis state than in the currency crisis state.     

The euro crisis and crisis management: big lessons from a small island

Following an overview of the economics of the current financial crisis, and the phenomenon of the Irish ‘Celtic Tiger’, this article argues that the current Irish-crisis and purported Euro-crisis are specific examples of the failure of banks internationally to exercise appropriate prudential care when making loans to both individuals and governments. The policy issue is thus one of banking supervision rather than the exclusion, or otherwise, of crisis nations from the Euro-zone. Thus international banks which uncritically purchased bonds from reckless banks and profligate governments must share the adjustment costs associated with the current crisis.     

美国次贷危机下一站

薄薄的信用卡,已成为威胁美国经济和金融稳定的一大隐患。美国国会在日前特殊的经济形势下出台《信用卡持卡人权利法案》,意欲通过规范信用卡交易行为,防止可能发生的信用卡危机