New evidence on the effects of job creation schemes in Germany—a matching approach with threefold heterogeneity

This paper evaluates the effects of job creation schemes on the participating individuals in Germany. The very informative dataset at hand justifies the application of a matching estimator and allows to take account of threefold heterogeneity. The recently developed multiple treatment framework is used to evaluate the effects with respect to regional and individual heterogeneity as well as to differences in the programme sectors. The results show considerable differences with respect to these sources of heterogeneity, but the overall finding is very clear. At the end of our observation period, that is 2 years after the start of the programmes, participants in job creation schemes have a significantly lower success probability on the labour market in comparison to matched non-participants.     

Sensitivity analysis for applied general equilibrium models in the presence of multiple Walrasian equilibria

Summary. Pagan and Shannon's (1985) widely used approach employs local linearizations of a system of non-linear equations to obtain asymptotic distributions for the endogenous parameters (such as prices) from distributions over the exogenous parameters (such as estimates of taste, technology, or policy variables, for example). However, this approach ignores both the possibility of multiple equilibria as well as the problem (related to that of multiplicity) that critical points might be contained in the confidence interval of an exogenous parameter. We generalize Pagan and Shannon's approach to account for multiple equilibria by assuming that the choice of equilibrium is described by a random selection. We develop an asymptotic theory regarding equilibrium prices, which establishes that their probability density function is multimodal and that it converges to a weighted sum of normal density functions. An important insight is that if a model allows multiple equilibria, say , but multiplicity is ignored, then the computed solution for the i-th equilibrium generally no longer coincides with the expected value of that i-th equilibrium. The error can be large and correspond to several standard deviations of the mean's estimate. Received: December 7, 1999; revised version: December 4, 2000     

Works council and training effects on satisfaction

This paper investigates the direct and indirect impact of works councils via further training on job satisfaction. Basic estimates on an individual level do not reveal clearly direct effects, but on an establishment level, the existence of a works council increases the average job satisfaction. We also find a positive, weakly significant effect on an individual level accompanied by training under instrumental variables estimation and if we control for personal characteristics.     

Jobs specialization versus unemployment: more on the productivity effect of unemployment benefits

We use the Marimon and Zilibotti (Econ J 109: 266–291, 1999) circle model and we endogenize the choice of the degree of specialization of jobs. We show that an increase in unemployment benefits not only reduces the mismatch of talents (as in Marimon and Zilibotti), but it also raises the degree of specialization of jobs. This reinforces the productivity enhancing effects of unemployment benefits.      

The effects of progressive income taxation on job turnover

We examine whether the level of the income tax rate and the convexity of the income tax schedule affect job mobility, as measured by moving to a better job. While the predicted effect of the level of the tax rate is ambiguous, we predict that an increase in the convexity of the tax schedule decreases job search activity by taxing away some of the benefits of a successful job search. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we estimate that both higher tax rates and increased tax rate progressivity decrease the probability that a head of household will move to a better job during the coming year. Our estimates imply that a five-percentage-point reduction in the marginal tax rate increases the average probability of moving to a better job by 0.79 percentage points (a 8.0% increase in the turnover propensity) and that a one-standard-deviation decrease in our measure of tax progressivity would increase this probability by 0.86 percentage points (a 8.7% increase in the turnover propensity). This estimate is robust to sensitivity analysis examining the importance of different sources of identification and variation in estimated effects across subgroups in the population. Our estimated importance of tax policy for job turnover suggests a potential role in explaining the responsiveness of taxable income to marginal tax rates.     

Long-run determinants of pollution: A robustness analysis

This paper examines how robust economic, political, and demographic variables are related to water and air pollution. Employing Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) for a cross section of 47 countries, 34 variables and 3 proxies for air and water pollution over a period from 1980 to 2000 we confirm the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis and highlight the relevance of variables that are not directly related to production.     

Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis

Two important problems exist in cross-country growth studies: outliers and model uncertainty. Employing Sala-i-Martin’s (1997a,b) data set, we first use robust estimation and analyze to what extent outliers influence OLS regressions. We then use both OLS and robust estimation techniques in applying the Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) to deal with the problem of model uncertainty. We find that the use of robust estimation affects the list of variables that are significant determinants of economic growth. Also the magnitude of the impact of these variables differs sometimes under the various approaches.First version received: March 2003 / Final version received: June 2004We like to thank two referees for their very helpful comments on a previous version of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

A computational analysis of core convergence in a multiple equilibria economy

We examine the structure of the core of a trading economy with three competitive equilibria as the number of traders (N) is varied. The core first splits into two pieces at N=5 and then splits a second time into three pieces at N=12. Both of these splits occur not at a point but as a contiguous gap. We find that the speed of convergence of the core toward the three competitive equilibria is not uniform but when N is large, the convergence rate is approximately of the order 1/N.     

Utility functions of equivalent form and the effect of parameter changes on optimum decision making

We derive a class of utility functions that are equivalent with respect to a well-defined functional form. We study the case of constant relative risk aversion (of some order) to investigate on different equivalence relations in order to determine the, possibly infinite, number of equivalence classes when utility functions satisfy a specific form. Then we apply our results to standard applications in economics and finance, for example, to the effect of price volatility on optimum hedging. We would like to thank Bernhard Eckwert and Itzhak Zilcha for constructive comments and suggestions.     

人力资本与进城农民工职业选择的实证研究

为适应中国劳动力供求形势新变化,促进社会和谐发展,迫切需要提高进城农民工的职业层次。教育、培训、迁移等人力资本因素是影响进城农民工职业选择的重要因素。使用多元logit模型进行了实证分析。受教育程度越高、接受过培训、在城市工作的年限越长的进城农民工,其从事具有更高社会声望职业的可能性就越大,这些职业有诸如办事人员和生产操作人员、专业技术人员和单位负责人等。提出了加强进城农民工人力资本投资的政策建议。     

Nonparametric quantile regression analysis of R&D-sales relationship for Korean firms

This paper applies the nonparametric quantile regression estimation procedure to the analysis of the innovation-firm size relationship using Korean manufacturing firms data. Due to the high asymmetric distribution of R&D expenditure, the mean regression does not capture properly the stylized facts of R&D behavior; hence it underestimates the sales elasticity. Comparing the parametric estimates and nonparametric estimates allows us to see that there exists a nonlinear relationship in innovative activity and sales. Dividing the data into three groups according to the sales volume, the elasticity in the medium-sized firms is the biggest for scientific firms. This result conforms that the findings of Scherer (1965) coincide with findings from Korean manufacturing firms data in the sense that R&D expenditure tends to increase faster than firm size with size up to a point and then more slowly among larger firms. For the non-scientific firms, it steadily increases showing increasing returns to scale in innovative activity in large firms.     

An empirical study of firm productivity growth based on the dynamic selection model: Effects on the recent decline in Korean exports

Export and productivity growth in the Korean manufacturing sector have both been slow since 2011. To understand this relationship, we examine the productivity distributions of manufacturing firms in Korea by applying the dynamic selection model developed by Sampson (2016). The fitness of the dynamic selection model suggests that a slowdown in the market selection mechanism may be a crucial contributor to the stagnant growth in the productivity. In addition, we find that the productivity difference between exporting firms and non-exporting firms has decreased and the low productivity growth of firms exporting to non-foreign affiliates has contributed to this trend.     

仿真技术在企业ERP人员培训中的应用与分析

企业ERP人才培养正受到越来越多重视，将新技术应用于ERP人才培养是当前的一个研究热点。在简要介绍ERP和仿真技术的基础上，论述了系统仿真在ERP人才培养中的应用现状和趋势。最后对基于计算机仿真技术的ERP人员培训软件平台进行了分析和并给出了平台设计的思路。     

The impact of labour unions on external auditor selection and audit scope: evidence from the Korean market

We examine whether labour unions influence external auditor selection and audit scope. As a major user group of financial information, labour unions likely demand financial information of high quality and thus high-quality audits. As a union’s request for wage increases is likely strong when a firm is performing well, management facing wage negotiations with the labour union has incentives to manipulate earnings downward and may therefore prefer auditors who allow more discretion. Using union data unique to Korea during 2005–2008, we find that firms with a stronger labour union tend to choose higher-quality auditors (i.e. Big N or industry specialist auditors). We also find that unionization is negatively (positively) associated with positive (negative) abnormal audit fees and audit hours, and the effects are more pronounced when the union is stronger and more active. Given that departures from normal audit fees and audit hours in either direction arguably impair audit quality, this finding is consistent with our prediction of unions’ demand for high-quality audits. Overall, our findings suggest that labour unions play an important role in determining audit quality.     

The effects of bureaucracy on political accountability and electoral selection

This paper examines how bureaucracy affects political accountability and electoral selection, using a three-tier political agency model consisting of voters, politicians and bureaucrats. In the model’s hierarchy, politicians are constrained by elections while bureaucrats are controlled by budgets. If voters and bureaucrats prefer different types of politicians (i.e. they have a conflict of interests), incumbents pass oversized budgets to prevent bureaucrats from engaging in strategic behaviours that damage incumbents’ reputations. If, instead, voters and bureaucrats prefer the same type of politicians (i.e. they have an alignment of interests), bureaucrats cannot obtain a concession from politicians. In the latter case, however, bureaucrats send voters a credible signal regarding an incumbent’s type, which improves electoral selection. This paper also shows that political appointment systems improve political accountability in the conflict-of-interests case while they weaken electoral selection in the alignment-of-interests case.     

Trade effects of regional integration: A panel cointegration analysis

The paper quantifies the most likely trade effects of the exceptional cases of the GATT/WTO system, namely, Regional Integration Agreements, on the selected member as well as non-member countries of the EU, NAFTA, MERCOSUR and AFTA. To this end, the gravity model was estimated through fixed effects model and panel cointegration analysis. It was found that the explanatory power of the latter has superseded the former one. For the case of EU, it was found that the intra-union trade-creation effect is approximately six times larger than extra-union effects. In NAFTA, exports to outside countries are significantly diverted. For MERCOSUR, on the other hand, results indicate that the integration has not contributed to intra-union trade. The members are still significantly dependent on extra-union imports, just like the members of AFTA.     

通货膨胀对武广高铁客流的影响

武广高铁作为世界上一次建成里程最长、运营速度最快的高速铁路,伴随着客流的增长已经多次调整了列车运行图。但是,期间中国经济在2010年第四季度开始出现明显的通货膨胀,人们对接下来一年的预期通货膨胀也在加重。武广高铁是否会出现列车虚糜,高铁客流是否会因通胀下降,成为人们担心的问题之一。本研究首先分析了通体货膨胀引起的财富和社会福利在穷人和富人之间的重新分配的问题,接下来由此展开,从预期通胀、票价形成机制和管理权限、服务的目标客户群、收入水平的增长幅度、国家宏观调控等多角度展开敏感性分析,结果表明,通货膨胀对武广高铁的客流虽有影响,但影响不大。     

基于相对熵的可拓群决策可靠性与敏感性研究

在分析相对熵理论与方法的基础上,将可拓转换与熵优化相结合,以决策优化为中心,阐述了可拓群决策的可靠性和敏感性分析过程。通过将定性分析与定量研究相结合,实现了决策论域中对象在不确定条件下的比较与选择,提高了可拓群决策多因素分析、多方案择优的准确性和可信度。     

Differentiation of innovation strategies based on pharmaceutical licensing agreements: Insight from Korean pharmaceutical firms

The paper aims to show how licensing behaviour can be used to differentiate distinct innovation strategies. Information on in-licensing and out-licensing agreements is used to guide the development of a framework that details the licensing firm’s relational preference for internal and external orientation. Using firm-level data of the Korean pharmaceutical firms, the study categorised the distinct strategic orientations of firms based on the proposed matrix model. The results indicated that firms with higher R&D (research and development) expenditures have a tendency to greater external exploitation of technological knowledge than firms with low R&D spending. The study provides potential avenues for targeting of licensing partners from the perspective of firms seeking to in-license or out-license their innovations.