Longitudinal Surveys and the Study of Occupational Mobility: Panel and Retrospective Design in Comparison

The paper discusses the extent to which longitudinal surveys are able to expose occupational mobility and the dynamics of these processes. It compares two survey designs: the repeated panel design and the retrospective life history design. This comparison details the strength and the weaknesses of the two designs. The paper particularly calls attention to the unique features of the two designs with respect to the exploration of occupational mobility – pointing to three general problems of quantitative social research: item-nonresponse, design effects of single and multi-measurement occasion, and the strong assumption that researchers and respondents share the same definition of concepts. The main conclusion of the paper is that both designs offer unique opportunities to study social change, yet the differences between the two should be kept in mind when choosing the data set for particular research questions.     

The Meanings of ‘Yes’ and ‘No’. An Explanation for the Forbid/Allow Asymmetry

Survey questions worded with the verb ‘forbid’ prove not to elicit opposite answers to equivalent questions worded with the verb ‘allow’ (Rugg 1941). Although ‘forbid’ and ‘allow’ are generally considered each other’s counterparts, respondents rather answer ‘no, not forbid’ than ‘yes, allow’. In order to find out which question is a more valid measure of the underlying attitude, this asymmetry in the answers has to be explained. Experiments show that the asymmetry arises because respondents translate similar attitudes differently into the answering options to forbid/allow questions are equally valid, but the way the attitudes are expressed on the answering scale differs due to the use of ‘forbid’ or ‘allow’. How does this translation process work? The leading hypothesis in forbid/allow research predicts that respondents holding moderate opinions feel that ‘yes forbid’ and ‘yes allow’ are very extreme, causing moderate respondents to prefer answering ‘not forbid’, or ‘not allow’. This article presents the results of 10 experiments investigating the meanings of the answering options to forbid/allow questions. Extreme connotations are shown to only provide part of the explanation for the occurrence of the forbid/allow asymmetry. In order to describe the answering process for forbid/allow questions, well-definedness of meanings proves to be an important additional factor. The meanings of answering options to allow questions are ill-defined compared of those to forbid questions, which causes allow questions to be less homogeneous measures of the underlying attitude than forbid questions.     

Developments in Survey Research over the Past 60 Years: A Personal Perspective

Many developments have occurred in the practice of survey sampling and survey methodology in the past 60 years or so. These developments have been partly driven by the emergence of computers and the continuous growth in computer power over the years and partly by the increasingly sophisticated demands from the users of survey data. The paper reviews these developments with a main emphasis on survey sampling issues for the design and analysis of social surveys. Design‐based inference based on probability samples was the predominant approach in the early years, but over time, that predominance has been eroded by the need to employ model‐dependent methods to deal with missing data and to satisfy analysts' demands for survey estimates that cannot be met with design‐based methods. With the continuous decline in response rates that has occurred in recent years, much current research has focused on the use of non‐probability samples and data collected from administrative records and web surveys.     

关于上海加快游艇经济发展的战略思考

本文基于对世界游艇产业与竞争态势进行分析,指出我国游艇产业处于起飞阶段,上海游艇制造业的发展具有区位优势、产业基础和市场空间。提出以科技创新带动游艇产业群的形成是上海市打造国家级游艇制造基地的必然选择;品牌建设是推动上海游艇经济可持续发展的必由之路。论文还就上海游艇产业科技创新及自主品牌建设的实施策略提出了建议。