新形势下政府宏观调控的对策研究

文章从市场缺陷与政府干预、政府缺陷与市场力量介入两个方面论述市场调节与政府调控之间的功能关系,探讨现代市场经济中市场与政府应该以何种方式进行组合,互补利弊。     

Intra-Industry Trade Expansion and Employment Reallocation between Sectors and Occupations

This paper re-examines the relationship between trade and labour market adjustment costs by explicitly considering the effects of occupational mobility. We investigate the hypothesis that intra-industry trade expansion entails lower adjustment costs than inter-industry trade expansion—the so-called Smooth Adjustment Hypothesis (SAH). This paper makes two new contributions. First, the introduction of a new adjustment variable that considers reallocation between sectors and occupations. Second, a test of the SAH using panel data with relevant trade and non-trade control variables, which overcomes some of the methodological limitations of former studies. The results suggest a confirmation of the SAH and stress the importance of considering the effects of worker moves between occupations in the study of trade-induced adjustment. JEL no. F12, F16, J62     

The Chinese State Enterprise Sector: Labour Market Reform and the Impact on Male–Female Wage Structure

The paper examines the wage structure in the Chinese state enterprise sector between 1981 and 1987. This period is of particular interest given the introduction of major labour market reforms in China during the early 1980s. In essence the reforms represented a movement away from administratively determined prices towards a market–oriented system combined with a relatively flexible system of labour allocation. The Juhn, Murphy and Pierce (1991) decomposition is employed to shed light on the role of changing labour market institutions over the period.
JEL classification : J 31; J 16     

Quantifying shifts in primary factor demand in the South African economy

This article uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to explain the persistence in the high levels of unemployment in the South African economy in spite of modest to relatively strong output growth. We make use of a historical simulation for the period 2006–13 and find that the capital–labour ratio increased despite a relative increase in the rental price of capital. Classical economic theory suggests that changes in industry preferences toward capital and labour lead to adjusted capital–labour ratios. We quantify the changes in industry factor preferences during this period and highlight their impact in explaining observed labour market outcomes. Other changes in the economy over this period are also quantified.     

宏观经济失衡的动因及其调整方略

近年来,我国经济出现内外失衡格局:内部失衡最突出的表现是储蓄、投资和消费关系的失衡(高储蓄、高投资和低消费),外部失衡则以双顺差为特征。我国经济内外失衡源于其出口导向的经济增长战略。我国的宏观经济政策必须作出新的选择。单一政策不能解决我国经济内外失衡问题,而应该更多地倚重财政政策。鉴于财政扩张与货币升值是一种有效的宏观经济政策组合,根据我国区域二元经济结构状况,应建立全国统一性和区域差异性相结合的央行货币政策调控体系。     

Labour Market Policy and Welfare Reform: Meeting Distribution and Efficiency Objectives

Alongside the growth in overall employment and the steady rise in average real incomes over the 1990s, many developed countries experienced a concentration of low labour market attachment and low pay among certain groups in society. In response, the focus of welfare policy shifted towards targeted making work pay programs. This paper considers the validity of the arguments underlying this shift in welfare policy. It examines two broad classes of policies: active labour market programs and earned income tax credits.     

我国宏观经济政策的评估困境及改进路向

宏观经济政策已成为宏观经济发展最大的外生变量。由于主体界定不清、资料和经费相对不足、评估标准差异性大以及缺乏必要的保障机制,宏观经济政策评估已陷入困境。针对这些评估困境,文章认为,对宏观经济政策进行有效评估,需要经济管理部门转变观念、提高认识,加大力度调整评估体系,制定切合实际的宏观经济政策。     

当前扩大消费需求的宏观调控政策选择

当前把消费需求作为我国扩大内需的主阵地已经达成共识,但扩大居民消费却是举步维艰。文章认为,政府在制定和实施宏观调控政策的过程中,必须把握好以下关系：区别短期消费需求和长期消费需求;把握消费与投资的体制性差异,以投资启动消费;针对我国二元结构下的城乡消费差异,重点是扩大农村消费需求;注重消费的可持续性。     

Impact of immigration on the Japanese economy: A multi-country simulation model

To quantify the impacts of immigration and fiscal reconstruction on the Japanese economy, we present a dynamic computable general equilibrium OLG model with an overlapping generations structure. We use a total of 16 countries and regions, both including those that are industrialized, such as Japan, the US, and the EU, and developing countries, such as China, Brazil, the Philippines, and Peru.Our simulation results show that a permanent immigration flows of 150,000 will improve the Japanese economy and the welfare of current and future generations. On the other hand, a standalone increase in the consumption tax will not improve long-run welfare. The results indicate that substantially increased inflows of working-age immigrants would alleviate the need for future fiscal reform and also help to dramatically reduce the public pension burden on the working generations.     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

武汉市郊农业劳动力转移就业培训模式研究

文章通过对武汉市郊农业劳动力转移就业培训模式的研究,构建出了四种培训模式：政府主导型、非政府组织主导型、商业性服务中介主导型、用人单位主导型,提出了劳动力转移就业培训组织模式选择的原则。在此研究基础上,初步探讨了武汉市郊农业劳动力转移就业培训组织模式的应用。     

中国劳动力市场发育的制度经济学分析

本文分析了中国劳动力市场发育的结构特征,并对转型期中国劳动力市场分割的制度变迁和制度均衡进行了分析,认为制度非均衡已成为中国劳动力市场发育的一种“常态”。中国劳动力市场的制度非均衡又成为该市场制度变迁的诱致因素,它的轨迹也就是劳动力市场制度变迁的轨迹。     

完善就业政策,确保就业生态——缓解湖南就业形势的几点建议

就业是民生之本,促进就业不仅是宏观调控的目标之一,也是与广大群众利益息息相关的重要课题。受全球经济危机影响,湖南省就业形势严峻。面对金融危机对湖南经济带来的挑战,在外部不利的条件下,为不让全球经济危机变成湖南省就业危机,就要把就业问题放在政策首位,把稳定就业与扩大就业有机结合起来,将长期政策和短期政策有机结合起来,通过就业创造型的经济增长,有效地缓解就业压力。     

我国的动态劳动需求及就业保护制度的影响:基于动态面板数据的研究

动态劳动需求描述了劳动力应对外部冲击的调整过程,是劳动力市场灵活性的重要体现,本文首次使用动态面板数据,对我国的动态劳动需求进行了研究,并检验了就业保护制度对动态劳动需求的影响。结果发现,我国国有及具有规模以上非国有工业企业的就业调整存在明显的刚性,遇到外部冲击时,企业需要2.56年时间完成劳动力调整的50%,对雇佣和解雇行为进行管制的就业保护制度显著减缓了劳动力调整速度。当经济环境变好时,就业保护制度减缓了企业劳动力投入的增长速度;当经济环境恶化时,就业保护制度减缓了企业裁减劳动力的速度。总体来说,就业保护有利于维护已经就业的劳动者的利益,但会使失业劳动者和新进入劳动力市场的劳动者寻找工作更加困难。     

人民币升值经济影响的根源及政策建议

中国人民银行自2010年6月份重启汇改,人民币再次呈现逐步升值态势,且在可预见的未来这一趋势还将持续。在当前全球经济复苏前景不明的情况下,特别需要注意人民币升值对经济产生的负面影响,以及对策。本文依据一般均衡的分析框架,从完全竞争市场假设出发,再根据中国国情逐渐放松假设条件,发现人民币升值并不必然令我国经济受损,其根源在于普遍存在的劳动力市场分割。据此提出的政策建议是,在继续推进人民币汇率形成机制改革的同时,要通过持续政策努力来打破劳动力市场分割的局面。     

Analysing job creation effects of scaling up infrastructure spending in South Africa

In a first for South Africa, this article draws on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynamic economy-wide employment impacts of infrastructure investment funded with different fiscal tools. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, the South African investment plan is modelled, given the infrastructure externality. Alternative fiscal scenarios to finance the policy are modelled in the article. In the long run, unemployment decreases for all types of workers under one of the scenarios. In the short run, only elementary occupation workers benefit from a decrease in unemployment; for the rest, unemployment rises.     

政府视野下的珠三角地区就业政策研究

就业问题一直是各国政府最为关注的社会问题之一,因为它不仅是一个经济问题,更是一个政治和社会问题。随着我国改革开放的不断深化、全球一体化的加速,以及美国次贷危机的发生,我国珠三角的就业形势严峻。珠三角地区政府应通过发展经济和调整产业结构、规范人力资源市场、完善就业服务、加强职业教育和培训、提供就业援助等措施,创造就业条件,扩大就业范围。     

产业集群促进政策研究：原则和一般性框架

文章对产业集群促进政策的原则、一般性框架的论述主要包括三个方面。首先,以文献综述的方式,探讨产业集群发展过程中政策性因素的作用、政策有效性等问题,指出必须结合区域经济发展实际,深入认识政策对集群发展的影响。其次,探讨产业集群促进政策在政策目标、措施组合选择中应遵循的基本原则。最后,对产业集群促进政策体系的基本构成以及各个阶段政策的力度和措施进行研究。在此基础上,文章阐述了产业集群促进政策与传统产业政策之间的区别。     

The pattern and causes of economic growth in India

This paper presents the broad macro parameters of the growthof the Indian economy since the nation's independence and across-country evaluation of where India stands, drawing outthe patterns discernible in these aggregative statistics. Thepaper gives an overview of the on-going debate on the componentsof the Indian growth and the relative importance of the differentpolicies in the 1980s and 1990s. It contributes to this debateby identifying the landmark years, and analysing the politicsbehind some of the economics. The paper also analyses the factorsbehind the changes in India's savings rate and the relationbetween growth and development, on the one hand, and the natureof labour market regulation, on the other.