Linear joint-production models

Summary The purpose of this paper is to analyze the solvability of linear joint production models (that is the existence of nonnegative solutions for all admissible values of the relevant parameters). A characterization result is provided.Thanks are due to Carmen Herrero, Begoña Subiza and an anonymous referee for very helpful comments. Financial support from the Dirección General de Investigación Científica y Técnica, under project PS89-0066 is grateful acknowledged.     

ACCOUNTING FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY

The analysis of international trade, finance and adjustment is hampered by major statistical inadequacies. In theory current account balances of all economies that make up the world economy should add to zero. However, available balance-of-payments data and other major statistical sources show a huge discrepancy. A major source of the discrepancy is found in the inadequate recording of international financial assets and liabilities and related factor income payments. In this paper the author proposes a global economic accounting framework, labelled as the World Accounting Matrix (WAM), which integrates world investment-savings balances, trade flows, factor payments and international flow of funds into one consistent data system on a source-use basis. Data discrepancies can thus be traced and adjusted more systematically. The WAM will provide a new tool for studies on international trade, debt and adjustment and present the accounting framework and the consistent data basis for models of the world economy.     

Financial efficiency and economic growth: The case of Spain

This paper explores the connection between financial efficiency and economic growth. First, a theoretical model is presented in which financial efficiency enhances economic growth by means of increasing the marginal productivity of a broad concept of capital. Next, some data from the Spanish economy from 1962 to 1995 are explored using cointegration techniques. The main results point to a prominent role of bank institutions in channeling funds from savings to investment. Operative inefficiency of banks has damaged economic growth by providing a smaller amount of funds to the process of development. These results also suggest the existence of imperfections in Spanish capital markets. Finally, some indicators of financial repression such as negative interest rates and inflation seem to have had a deleterious impact on economic growth.This paper is part of a broader research project financed by Fundación FIES, CECA. Comments by Caneda, Cuñado, Martínez Chacón, Pérez de Villarreal, Termes, and Villaverde are gratefully acknowledged.     

Term structure and the estimated monetary policy rule in the Eurozone

In this paper we estimate a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure in order to analyze two issues. First, we analyze the effect of introducing an explicit term structure channel in the NKM model on the estimated parameter values of the model, with special emphasis on the interest rate smoothing parameter using data for the Eurozone. Second, we study the ability of the model to reproduce some stylized facts such as highly persistent dynamics, the weak comovement between economic activity and inflation, and the positive, strong comovement between interest rates observed in actual Eurozone data. The Sect. 3 implemented is a classical structural method based on the indirect inference principle. We are grateful to Eduardo Ley, two anonymous referees and seminar participants at the XXXI Simposio de Análisis Económico (Oviedo, Spain) and Bank of Spain for their useful comments. Financial support from Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología and Universidad del País Vasco (Spain) and Fundación Séneca through projects SEJ2004-04811/ECON, 9/UPV00035.321-13511/2001 and I02937/PHCS/05, respectively, is gratefully acknowledged. The first author also thanks Fundación Ramón Areces for financial support.     

A market game approach to differential information economies

In this paper we recast a differential information economy as a strategic game in which players propose net trades and prices. Pure strategy Nash equilibria are strong and determine both consumption plans and commodity prices that coincide with the Walrasian Expectations equilibria of the underlying economy. The authors acknowledge support by research grants BEC2003-09067-C04-01 (Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia and FEDER), PGIDT04XIC30001PN (Xunta de Galicia) and SA070A05 (Junta de Castilla y León). JP Torres-Martínez is also grateful to CNPq-Brazil and University of Vigo for financial support. We are indebted to N.C. Yannelis for helpful comments and insights.     

Mathematical utility theory and the representability of demand by continuous homogeneous functions

The resort to utility-theoretical issues will permit us to propose a constructive procedure for deriving a homogeneous of degree one continuous function that gives raise to a primitive demand function under suitably mild conditions. This constitutes the first self-contained and elementary proof of a necessary and sufficient condition for an integrability problem to have a solution by continuous (subjective utility) functions.The work of José C. R. Alcantud has been supported by FEDER and Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia under the Research Project SEJ2005-0304/ECON, and by Consejería de Educación (Junta de Castilla y León) under the Research Project SA098A05. Carlos R. Palmero acknowledges financial support by FEDER and Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia under the Research Project SEJ2005-08709/ECON, and by Consejería de Educación (Junta de Castilla y León) under the Research Project VA017B05.     

News and the exchange rate revisited

This paper provides a theoretical framework to explain the increasing impact on the exchange rate of unanticipated money growth, with a stable short-term interest rate, and rising long-term rates. The assumptions of Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate parity are relaxed. The appreciation of the currency is shown to be a direct result of the expected increase of future interest rates. A discussion is offered on the precise definition of the "surprise," under alternative assumptions. Heterogeneity of agents as regards exchange rate expectations, and the effect of long-term capital investments are also taken into account. It is shown that the surprise may have lagged effects on the exchange rate, and that its sign depends on the horizon of the portfolio investments (short or long). This paper has benefited from the comments of the participants at the 1996 International Atlantic Economic Conference in Paris. Financial support from the Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas and the DGCYT under project PB94–1502 is acknowledged.     

Recursive utility with unbounded aggregators

A new framework is presented for the study of the existence and uniqueness of solutions to the Koopmans’ equation in the unbounded case, that is based on the contraction mapping approach. In the bounded below case with bounded consumption streams, uniqueness of the solution in the whole class of weak-star continuous utility functions is obtained. When the aggregator is unbounded below and/or consumption streams are unbounded, existence of a weak-star continuous solution is shown, and a simple criterium to check the sufficient conditions for existence is provided. Juan Pablo Rincón-Zapatero and Carlos Rodríguez-Palmero gratefully acknowledge financial support by the Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia and FEDER funds under Research Projects MTM2005-06534 and SEJ2005-08709/ECON, respectively, and by Consejería de Educación de la Junta de Castilla y León under Research Projects VA99/04 and VA017B05, respectively. This paper has substantially benefited from the comments of an anonymous referee. Particular and special thanks are due to Robert Becker for his very helpful comments and valuable suggestions.     

医疗保险统筹基金收支平衡影响因素及对策

基本医疗保险统筹基金收支平衡是深化医疗保险制度改革的基础,也是一项十分复杂的系统工程。本文在综合了主要研究文献基础上,探讨了影响医疗保险统筹基金收支平衡的因素(政策因素,医疗保险经办机构因素,定点医疗机构、参保人和参保单位因素,人口增长因素,结算方式因素,疾病谱因素等),提出了保持基金收支平衡的若干对策。     

人口老龄化、养老金与国际资本流动： 影响机制与实证研究*

本文详细梳理了人口老龄化对国际资本流动的影响机制，并利用1993-2012年98个国家或地区的面板数据实证分析其相关关系，同时验证了以养老金为中介变量的影响机制。研究发现：人口老龄化主要通过资本-劳动比率和经常账户余额影响国际资本流动；不管是中高收入和中低收入国家，人口老龄化程度越高，资本越倾向流出；随着实行现收现付（PAYG）养老制度国家的深入改革，作为资金池的养老金规模逐渐扩大，其对外投资活动也越活跃。     

Status-seeking behavior,the evolution of income inequality,and growth

Using an overlapping generations model, this paper investigates the implications of status-seeking behavior, induced by preferences for relative income, for the evolution of income inequality. When average income rises, an individual’s marginal utility of their own income may increase (keeping up with the Joneses, or KUJ), or decrease (running away from the Joneses, or RAJ). It is shown that income inequality is shrinking over time in the KUJ economy, whereas it is expanding in the RAJ economy. We also explore the implications for long-run growth and inequality, in the existence of both KUJ and RAJ agents. I am truly grateful to Koichi Futagami for his encouragement and guidance in writing this paper. I have benefitted from comments by an anonymous referee, Been-Lon Chen, Giacomo Corneo, Akiomi Kitagawa, Kazuo Mino, Kazuhiro Yuki, and seminar participants at Osaka University, the 2006 Japanese Economic Association Autumn Meeting at Osaka City University, the Far Eastern Meeting of Econometric Society 2007 at Taipei, SER Conference 2007 at Singapore, and the European Meeting of Econometric Society 2007 at Budapest. All remaining errors are, of course, my own. The financial support from JSPS Research Fellowships for Young Scientists is greatly acknowledged.     

Fiscal strategies,foreign indebtedness,and overlapping generations

Conclusions This paper offers a unifying dynamic system approach to real government debt and real capital formation in a world economy. The sustainability of permanently maintained primary fiscal deficits is investigated in an open economy. In particular if national governments compete in the issuance of debt at an international capital market sustainable debt profiles appear only as a theoretical (i. e., not empirically valid) curiosity. Within the more realistic regime of an undercapitalized world economy a nation can only run a permanently maintained primary surplus. Starting from a PMP surplus the paper also demonstrates the viability of temporary deficits implying an increase in taxation later to stabilize the fiscal debt. By reversing the argument this shows, the right way to reduce government debt in a non-traumatic manner is to run a higher temporary surplus via higher taxation. Using this extrasurplus to buy back fiscal debt the economy may reduce taxation later while enjoying vigorous capital accumulation towards a higher capital-labour ratio. Furthermore, the paper shows that ceteris paribus a relatively high social security load and a relatively high size of a balanced budget causes external indebtedness via consumption oriented current account deficits. It is left for further research to see what happens if government borrows for public investment instead of public consumption.My research was supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. While preparing the paper 1 had access to unpublished work by M. Carlberg and T. Ihori. Discussions with M. Carlberg, H. Großmann, J. Michaelis, and H. Schmid are gratefully acknowledged. The diagrams were mastered by C. Schwarz.     

Optimal accident compensation schemes

This paper considers the way in which accident compensation is offered as insurance against personal injury due to accidents. We begin by setting up a simple microeconomic model in which accident compensation schemes can be studied. Using this model, the accident compensation scheme that maximizes the expected utility of the insured for a given expected outlay of the scheme (that is, for a budget constraint for the insurer) is characterized. We show that, in order for the optimal schedule of indemnities to be increasing (more severe accidents lead to greater compensation) then, contrary to what has been assumed in the literature, the marginal utility of wealth must be decreasing in health. In particular, if the marginal utility of wealth is non-decreasing in health, then an optimal indemnity schedule cannot provide full compensation, in the sense that utility in each state is a constant. Financial support from Secretaría de Estado de Universidades e Investigación del Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia is gratefully acknowledged by F. J. Vázquez.     

THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANALYTICAL TOOL*

The purpose of this article is to record the history of the national income and product accounts of the United States, concentrating on the period 1932–47. During that period the single national income aggregate evolved into a set of accounts and the estimates emerged as an important analytical tool. Interviews with participants in these developments were extensively utilized to trace the events, people, ideas, and other factors which shaped the history of the accounts. The generally recognized need for economic information during the Great Depression stimulated the request that the Department of Commerce undertake what became the first official continuing series on national income in the United States. These estimates were prepared with the cooperation of the National Bureau of Economic Research and were published in 1934. By the late 1930's, estimates were extended to include income by state and a monthly series. World War II was the impetus for the development of product, or expenditure, estimates. By the mid-1940's, the estimates had evolved into a set of income and product accounts–a consolidated production account, sector income and outlay accounts, and a consolidated saving-investment account–designed to provide a bird's-eye-view of the economy. During this period uses of the accounts widened; analysis of wartime production goals and anti-inflation policy are noteworthy examples. The National Income, 1947 Edition was the culmination of a period of intensive conceptual discussion, extension of data sources, and improvement of estimating techniques. Thereafter the mainlines of development are more familiar, encompassing refinement and elaboration of the estimates and proliferation of uses.     

Social Comparisons and Optimal Taxation in a Small Open Economy

In this paper, we analyze how international capital mobility affects the optimal labor and capital income tax policy in a small open economy when consumers care about relative consumption. The main results crucially depend on whether the government can tax returns on savings abroad. If the government can use flexible residence‐based capital income taxes, then the optimal policy rules from a closed economy largely carry over to the case of a small open economy. If it cannot, then capital income taxes become completely ineffective. The labor income taxes must then indirectly also reflect the corrective purpose that the absent capital income tax would have had.     

Interest rate expectations and the exchange rate

This paper presents a model of exchange rate reactions to interest rate changes and explains the following complex interactions. An expected interest rate increase induces a current depreciation. If that increase is true in the next period, then the exchange rate appreciates more than the previous depreciation. If the increase is sustained, it leads to a final, though small, depreciation. The model explicitly takes into account capital gains and losses. As far as expectations are concerned, two types of agents are considered (chartist and fundamentalist), and expectations are formed in two different ways (rational and bandwagon effect). Simulations and some empirical evidence for the U.S. dollar support the implications of the model.This paper has benefitted from the comments of the participants at the Forty-Third International Atlantic Economic Conference in London, England, March 11–18, 1997. Financial support from the DGCYT under project PB94-1502 is acknowledged. The comments of the participants at the 1995 American Economic Association Conference on Exchange Rate Determination in Stuttgart, Germany and the 1995 International Symposium on Economic Modeling in Bologna, Italy are also acknowledged. The author is solely responsible for any possible remaining error.     

International capital flows and convergence in the neoclassical growth model

To analyze how capital mobility affects economic growth and convergence, this paper will use the analytical solution to the neoclassical growth model with a constant saving rate, beginning with the closed-economy Solow growth model. An introduction to international capital flows will follow. In an open economy, free capital mobility assures an instantaneous convergence in interest rates that, under a perfect competence situation, implies the instantaneous convergence in income levels among homogeneous countries. Taking into account this question and to reconcile these results with empirical evidence, that is, with the gradual convergence observed, the assumption is introduced that in spite of free capital mobility, there are international credit restrictions. In this case, we will show how the rate of convergence depends on the international capital inflows received. The authors would like to thank Maria Isabel Abradelo for her help in translating this paper.     

International Borrowing, Specialization, and Unemployment in a Small Open Economy

The authors show that an increase in international borrowing increases specialization and unemployment in a small open economy that is subject to terms‐of‐trade risks. The economy has a production advantage in the export sector. However, the size of the export sector is limited by the available funds. To insure workers against income fluctuations arising from terms‐of‐trade risks, firms in the export sector offer workers a stable wage rate with the possibility of unemployment. An increase in international borrowing increases specialization in the export sector, which leads to higher unemployment when the terms‐of‐trade shock is bad. A state‐contingent price subsidy can reduce unemployment without inefficiently reducing specialization. The results are robust to the introduction of risk‐averse firms.     

Capital income taxation,tax criteria,and intergenerational welfare

In a two-period overlapping-generations model, residence criteria are shown to be optimal with lump-sum transfers to the younger generation in a dynamically efficient open economy even if all wage income, corresponding to rent income under exogenous labor supply, is not taxed away. When tax revenues are also distributed to the older generation — which indeed may be desirable for short-term intergenerational welfare distribution reasons — a weighted average rule is derived for optimal international taxation. The taxation of domestic savings income follows the inverse elasticity rule in respect to savings and, surprisingly, higher investment elasticity increases the tax level. Finally, for a small open economy and for large identical economies, tax competition with a mixed scheme of residence-based taxes and source-based subsidies yields the same tax policy as tax cooperation with no restrictions on the domestic and international capital income tax instruments.     

A simple aggregate demand analysis with dynamic optimization in a small open economy

We develop a very simple aggregate demand analysis of a small open economy that suffers from secular demand stagnation. It looks like the conventional Keynesian cross analysis but considers dynamically optimizing behavior of households and firms, international capital movement, and the current account adjustment. We find that parameter changes that improve the current account yield an appreciation pressure on the home currency and decrease demand for the home commodity and labor. Consequently, they worsen deflation and decrease consumption and income. This result is quite opposite to that under full employment. For example, an exogenous rise in the price of the home commodity decreases employment, consumption and income. If a country owns greater foreign assets, it suffers from less employment, consumption and income.