固定资产投资规模预警研究

本文通过预警模型,对我国固定资产投资规模进行预测,给出警示.一、警情指标的确定和分析警兆反映固定资产投资规模的统计指标很多,我们根据以下三点进行预警指标选择.一是能够反映研究对象最基本、最本质的内容,综合概括性较强:二是符合预警分析的要求便于进行预警分析:三是数据容易获得.由于我国现有的统计资料数据还不完整、准确,我们只能选择时间跨度比较长,数据比较多、准确性相对较高的名义年度内固定资产投资增长率作为警情指标.警兆指标的选择是一个复杂的过程.从警源到警情的产生过程分出许多警兆.我们可以从以下几方面进行选择:一是从国民经济运行中选取影响投资的因素:二是从投资筹集过程中寻找警兆指标,我们对这些指标进行分析,参考有关专家意见,最后初选确定了一些警兆指标.为了明确这些初选指标是否正确,需要进行时差相关分析,时差相关分析的具体的计算步骤如下:     

矿井深部开采通防灾害预警评价模型的构建

以在矿井生产工作过程中进行通防安全管理所积累的相关数据资料为依据,将通防灾害预警对象的警度进行等级上的划分,并得到警度等级若干个,然后综合考虑以估计出这些警度等级的所处大致数据范围,将通防灾害预警对象指标代入相应警度等级构成的集合中进行多指标的分析评价,评价的结论得出后,使用综合关联度比较大小的方法对预警对象指标与各警度等级集合间拟合程度进行分析,最后以评价预警对象与某个警度等级集合的拟合程度与综合关联度呈正比例关系为依据,判断出与预警对象拟合程度最高的警度等级。     

房地产价格:政策与现实的悖论及其解析

虽然国家近年来连续出台了一系列抑制房地产价格的调控措施,但我国的房地产价格仍呈现较快上涨的态势,其原因不仅在于扩张的需求等市场因素,也在于国家宏观调控政策的失当.国家在采取措施抑制房价上涨的同时,其它的政策又在无形中助推了房价的上涨,抑制房地产价格的暴涨需要矫正政府的宏观调控政策.     

房地产新政出重拳

为进一步贯彻落实国务院关于坚决遏制部分城市房价过快上涨的通知精神,国家有关部委近日分别出台措施,巩固房地产市场调控成果,促进房地产市场健康发展。具体措施是:一是各地要加大贯彻落实房地产市场宏观调控政策措施的     

下半年房地产市场走势分析

2008年下半年房地产市场进一步调整形势逐渐明朗,房地产投资增速略有回落;市场供求形势发生变化,住房价格总水平将继续明显回落,如果宏观经济增长不发生大的波动,短期内房价不会出现大幅下降的情况;国家宏观调控政策和房地产调控政策要注重促进房地产市场平稳发展。     

2005年宏观调控下的长春房地产市场

2005年,国家出台的房地产新政,旨在稳定房价,遏制炒房投机,限制买房投资,引导正常住房消费。几个月来,宏观调控控政策对房地产过热、炒房过热、房价过高的城市产生重大影响;同时也对长春这样的房地产市场一直不热,炒房现象很少、房价一直偏低的城市,产生了一定的影响。一、长春     

宁波住宅市场2005年盘点

宁波市自1999年开始的房地产行情得益于经济增长、城市建设、城市化进程加快、消费升级、投资意识觉醒等因素,需求旺盛。同时,房价大涨,土地供给减少,直接导致供求失衡;从而引起新的房价、地价上涨,其发展是整体宏观经济的景气发展所致。在2005年,由于宏观调控的作用,宁波房地产市场表现为政策、供应与需求的三方博弈,宁波楼市一波三折。年初,市场供应和需求充裕,交易活跃,价格保持较大涨幅。5月份开始,随着国家宏观调控相关政策的连续出台,高速上涨的房价受到抑制,市场观望气氛浓重,交易清淡,房价略有小跌。10月份以后,宏观调控的影响逐渐…     

二线城市凸现房价“泡沫”

中央政府今年以来实施的一系列宏观调控政策,将楼价持续飙升的上海、北京等一线城市推上了风口浪尖,并取得了部分成效。但从全国市场看,房价上涨还是呈蔓延性趋势。据今年4月发改委和国家统计局发布的一项对全国35个主要城市房价和租金的调查结果:今年第一季度全国房价涨幅9.8%,其中商品住宅售价上涨10.5%,房屋租赁价格上涨1.9%。这项数据令人注目之处在于这是对全国各个城市数据的一个平均,也就是说,目前房价的上扬已经不仅是上海、北京这样的一线城市的问题,高房价的问题正在从一线城市向二线城市蔓延,很多二线城市的房地产泡沫危险也已经出现。其中杭州、青岛、天津等二线城市的房价涨幅已经直逼上海。这不能不引起我们的注意。     

信息

国务院发展研究中心预测:2006整体房价上涨6%国务院发展研究中心推出的《2006年房地产行业发展白皮书》称,全国房价持续上涨的趋势不会改变。该报告预测,2006年全国房地产价格涨幅将比2005年下半年的增速水平略强,商品房平均价格年涨幅预计将在6%左右。该报告认为从2005年全国房地产总体市场价格走势看,国家相继出台针对房地产行业的宏观调控政策,给整个房地产市场带来了较大的冲击,导致房地产销售价格上涨幅度持续放缓,这种市场态势还将延续3-5年。建设部:经济适用房还要继续建设建设部发布《城市规划编制办法》,明确要求各地政府要研究住…     

政府对房地产的宏观调控政策研究

房价高企、涨幅过大,是政府下定决心加强对房地市场宏观调控的主因.而房地产业是国民经济的重要组成部分,关联度强,受宏观经济影响很大,房地产市场调控政策作用的发挥受到种种制约.房地产业发展对地区GDP增长和税收增加举足轻重.地方政府为追求政绩和地方利益,不希望房价下跌.这种利益的博弈使中央的调控政策在具体贯彻实施中大打折扣.本文首先分析了房地产价格的成因,在此基础上举例论证房价上涨的深层次原因及政府调控的目的,进而从供求双方找出宏观调控的举措.     

Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility

This paper derives a forward-looking rational expectations house price model and empirically tests its ability to explain short-run fluctuations in real house prices. A novel approach to proxying the imputed rents of owner-occupied housing, as a function of observable housing market fundamentals, is combined with a housing market arbitrage relation to derive a present value model for real house prices. Tests of the rational expectations, nonlinear cross-equation restrictions reject the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and the asset-based housing price model for quarterly, single-detached house prices in the city of Vancouver, British Columbia from 1979–1991. The model fails to fully capture observed house price dynamics in two real estate booms but tracks real house prices well in less volatile times, suggesting that prices may temporarily deviate from fundamental values in real estate price cycles.     

The economic effects of real estate investors

We show five new results about small- and medium-sized real estate investors (SMREI) who participate through legal entities in US housing markets. First, SMREI have the largest growth across all cities post Great Recession, in contrast to Wall Street Landlords who concentrate in superstar cities. Second, SMREI increase house price growth and price-to-income ratio, especially in the bottom price tier. Third, this effect is reversed as investors trigger a medium-run supply response. Fourth, in areas with a high supply elasticity, SMREI affect rents more than prices. Finally, SMREI change the composition of the housing stock in favor of multifamily units.     

青岛开发区房地产业发展研究

对青岛开发区房地产市场调查评估，发现房地产投资持续快速发展、商品房销售供给两旺、个人购房比例上升、空置房减少。房地产市场能保持购销两旺成因主要是：社会经济良性发展、居民收入快速提高、城市化进程加快、住房制度改革顺利、国家住房金融政策放宽，以及企业和环境等方面。章分析了其房地产业未来发展趋势及需要注意的一些问题。     

Explaining Intermetropolitan Variation in Housing Prices, Rents and Land Prices

In attempting to explain why housing prices, rents and urban land prices vary so dramatically between U.S. metropolitan areas, a simple model of a metropolitan housing market is presented identifying three interrelated submarkets. Estimating equations for rent, housing prices and urban land prices are identified and estimated using two-stage least squares. The empirical results provide strong support for the theoretical model concerning how these three submarkets interact. The results also suggest that household income and construction costs are the most important factors causing housing prices, rents and land prices to vary between metropolitan areas.     

Real Estate Values, Federal Income Taxation, and the Importance of Local Market Conditions

This article develops an income property valuation model that explicitly incorporates the effects of local market conditions. In particular, the model allows real rents to respond to a change in tax law, or to any exogenous shock to the system, with the dynamics of the rent change over time dependent upon current local supply and demand conditions and on the expected rate of economic growth in the local economy. Application of the model to an analysis of reduced capital gain taxation demonstrates that a partial reversal of TRA86's real estate provisions would disproportionately benefit those markets, and related lending institutions, which are most in need of a bolstering of real estate values.     

Do Real Estate Prices and Stock Prices Move Together? An International Analysis

The relationship between stock prices and real estate prices has been the subject of substantial debate in both the academic and practitioner literatures. Existing studies have focused on the time series of stock and real estate returns using data from a single country, such as the U.S. By necessity, these studies examine return and price changes over short intervals, creating a bias when property values are smoothed from year to year. Using data from 17 different countries over 14 years, this paper examines the relation between stock returns and changes in property values and rents. Consistent with other country-specific studies, we find that, with the exception of Japan, the contemporaneous relation between yearly real estate price changes and stock returns is not statistically significant. However, when the data are pooled across countries and when we look at longer measurement intervals, a significant relation between stock returns and both rents and value changes becomes apparent. Real estate prices are also found to be significantly influenced by GDP growth rates and provide a good long-term hedge against inflation but a poor year-to-year hedge.     

The Long‐Run Relationship Between House Prices and Rents

I use standard error‐correction models and long‐horizon regression models to examine how well the rent–price ratio predicts future changes in real rents and prices. I find evidence that the rent–price ratio helps predict changes in real prices over 4‐year periods, but that the rent–price ratio has little predictive power for changes in real rents over the same period. I show that a long‐horizon regression approach can yield biased estimates of the degree of error correction if prices have a unit root but do not follow a random walk, and I construct bootstrap distributions to conduct appropriate inference in the presence of this bias. The results lend empirical support to the view that the rent–price ratio is an indicator of valuation in the housing market.     

Who benefits the most? Risk pooling in mortgage loan insurance: Evidence from the Canadian mortgage market

This article evaluates the effect of mortgage loan insurance (MLI), an essential macroprudential tool available to policy makers, on housing affordability, household leverage, and the overall welfare of the economy. A dynamic model of the housing market with heterogeneous households and competitive housing and mortgage markets is constructed and is calibrated to Canadian data. We find that relaxing the mandatory nature of MLI required for mortgages with a loan-to-value ratio of 80% or more, in favor of a counterfactual system where MLI reflects credit risks, dampens demand for housing to purchase and puts downward pressure on house prices. Some of the households with low income and low asset holdings can no longer afford a house; therefore, the aggregate homeownership rate drops. In contrast, demand for rental units increases and rents go up.     

An Evaluation of Hedonic Price Indexes for Thirty-four Large SMSAs

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, a set of price indexes are developed for thirty-four metropolitan areas for the years 1975 and 1978. Indexes are also broken down by central city and suburb for twenty two of the metropolitan areas. These indexes measure variation in the price per unit of owner-occupied housing stock and the price per unit of housing services of rental housing. Confidence intervals are constructed for the price indexes. It is found that the indexes are reasonably precise measures in that the typical ratio of the confidence interval to the predicted median rent or value is about 13%. Also, analysis of the confidence intervals indicates substantial and statistically significant variation in the price of housing stock and services among the metropolitan areas studied. One of the major benefits of this set of indexes is that it can be used to address one of the most important questions in real estate — Why do housing prices and rents vary among metropolitan areas and over time? Research projects are currently underway that use the data to address these two questions.     

Personal Residential Real Estate Investment in Australia: Investor Characteristics and Investment Parameters

To date our understanding of the factors affecting the housing supply stem from the private provision of new units through real estate development. This article investigates a different aspect of housing supply, the private provision of rental housing through investment in existing properties. Using logistic regression and a series of micro data sets of Australian households, we examine the investment decision of residential rental property investors over the period 1990–2004. The sample period incorporates a full real estate cycle. Our results indicate that wealth-related factors are the dominant factors driving these investments. Life-cycle factors such as marriage and children play a less important role. Most of the determinants of income property investment do not vary with the property cycle. Marriage is an exception. It became more important as house prices rose.