Vertical Trade,Exchange Rate Pass-Through,and the Exchange Rate Regime

We compare the welfare of different combinations of monetary and currency policies in an open-economy macroeconomic model that incorporates two important features of many small open economies: a high level of vertical international trade and a high degree of exchange rate pass-through. In this environment, a small economy prefers a fixed exchange rate regime over a flexible regime, while the larger economy prefers a flexible exchange rate regime. There are two main causes underlying our results. First, in the presence of sticky prices, relative prices adjust through changes in the exchange rate. Multiple stages of production and trade make it more difficult for one exchange rate to balance the whole economy by adjusting several relative prices simultaneously throughout the vertical chain of production and trade. More specifically, there is a tradeoff between delivering an efficient relative price between home and foreign final goods and delivering an efficient relative price between home and foreign intermediate goods. Second, because the small economy faces a high degree of exchange rate pass-through under a flexible regime, it suffers from a lack of efficient relative prices in vertical trade. The larger economy, however, does not face this problem because its level of exchange rate pass-through is low.     

Tariff and exchange rate pass-through for Chinese exports: A firm-level analysis across customs regimes

We examine whether a firm's import content share differentially affects the degree of tariff and exchange rate pass-through into its export prices. Our pricing-to-market model suggests that a firm's import content share negatively affects the degree of exchange rate pass-through but does not affect the degree of tariff pass-through. Using firm-level data for Chinese exporting firms during the period 2000–2006, we find evidence of an almost complete exchange rate pass-through. As expected, when we distinguish firms by their trade regime, processing-trade firms, especially pure-assembly firms which tend to have higher import-content share, have a lower exchange rate pass-through than ordinary trade firms. We find no evidence that the tariff pass-through differs across the various trade regimes.     

Exchange Rate Pass-through in a Small Open Economy: the Importance of the Distribution Sector

The degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic goods prices has important implications for monetary policy in small open economies with floating exchange rates. Evidence indicates that pass-through is faster to import prices than to consumer prices. Price setting behaviour in the distribution sector is suggested as one important explanation. If distribution costs and trade margins are important price components of imported consumer goods, adjustment of import prices and consumer prices to exchange rate movements may differ. We present evidence on these issues for Norway by estimating a cointegrated VAR model for the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector, paying particular attention to exchange rate channels likely to operate through trade margins. Embedding this model into a large scale macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy, which inter alia includes the pricing-to-market hypothesis and price-wage and wage-wage spirals between industries, we find exchange rate pass-through to be quite rapid to import prices and fairly slow to consumer prices. We show the importance of the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector in that trade margins act as cushions to exchange rate fluctuations, thereby delaying pass-through significantly to consumer prices. A forecasting exercise demonstrates that exchange rate pass-through to trade margins has not changed in the wake of the financial crises and the switch to inflation targeting. We also find significant inflationary effects of exchange rate changes even in the short run, an insight important for inflation targeting central banks.     

贸易模式与不完全汇率传递——基于扩展的古诺模型的解释

本文采用一个扩展的古诺模型分析证明了贸易模式与不完全汇率传递的关系。首先,本文从破解人民币升值背景下中国贸易规模和贸易顺差仍持续增长这一谜题出发,分析了中国贸易模式和出口结构特征,描述了中国在国际生产价值链上的角色,阐述了垂直型产业内模式和中间产品占比较大的贸易结构对人民币汇率传递水平的影响。其次,对Dornbusch采用的古诺模型进行拓展,引入贸易模式变量,构建了一个局部均衡的理论模型。模型分析表明,产业市场结构、本国供应商的市场地位和贸易模式是影响出口价格的汇率传递水平的重要因素。最后,根据模型分析结论,提出相应的政策建议。     

Implications of Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Nontradable Goods for International Policy Cooperation

This paper investigates the welfare consequences of international policy cooperation by simultaneously introducing the following three elements in a standard two-country general equilibrium model: (i) general degrees of exchange rate pass-through, (ii) nontradable goods and their sector-specific productivity shocks, and (iii) general weights on goods in Cobb–Douglas consumption indices. There are two channels for possible mutual welfare gains from policy cooperation: First, cooperation can compensate for insufficient changes in the terms of trade when the degree of exchange rate pass-through is intermediate. Second, countries can cooperate in reaction to shocks in the nontradable goods sectors. This second channel is revealed by deriving an analytical condition for welfare gains under full pass-through and this condition is characterized by the weights in the consumption indices and the variances of sector-specific productivity shocks. Numerical evaluation demonstrates that when the two countries are symmetric and equal weights on consumption goods are assumed, welfare gains from cooperation increase as symmetric pass-through elasticity increases, which implies that the second channel dominates the first, whose effect on welfare gains is nonmonotonic in pass-through elasticity.     

Tariff Pass-through in Wholesaling: Evidence from Firm-level Data in Japan✰

Tariff pass-through is critical for considering the benefits of trade liberalization, the beneficiaries, and the extent. This study empirically examines the tariff pass-through in wholesaling through the wholesale firm-level data in Japan. In particular, the study focuses on wholesalers’ margin ratio, that is, (sales – procurements) / sales. We address the endogeneity concerns on the measurement errors of the study variables of margin ratio and tariffs. Consequently, the study found that importing wholesalers significantly raised their margin ratio against tariff reduction. On average, a 1 percentage point reduction of tariffs raised the margin ratio by approximately 0.25 percentage point. This rise is equivalent to that of sales prices to procurement prices by about 0.34 %, indicating that Japanese wholesalers capture one-third of the tariff rent. However, the study also found that a tariff reduction lowers the margin ratio of wholesalers who procure their products from domestic producers.     

日本金融服务贸易自由化及其影响的实证分析

从日本经济的发展历程来看,金融服务贸易自由化对其化工产业及其电子信息行业的发展都起到了至关重要的作用。本文依据1985～2008年的日本相关数据,制度性量化指标量化金融服务贸易自由化程度以及估计金融服务贸易自由化程度对人力资本吸收程度、技术吸收程度以及日本经济增长的影响,结论发现金融服务贸易自由化程度越高,人力资本吸收速度越快,技术吸收速度增加对经济增长产生正效应。     

ECFA的建立与海峡两岸垂直分工模式

通过计算中国大陆加入WTO以来中国大陆出口的垂直专业化比率,以及东亚各经济体的中间产品的来料比率及其贡献,本文发现,无论是在出口总量上,还是在台湾地区出口到中国大陆的主要产品,其对中国大陆垂直专业化的贡献程度从2002年以来一直在下降。这表明中国大陆不断深化的开放并没有促进海峡两岸产业链的进一步深化,相反,受此前台湾的"戒急用忍"政策所至,海峡两岸产业互补性垂直分工减弱。进一步采用GTAP模型模拟中国大陆参与东亚区域贸易自由化的各种不同场景,结果显示,通过ECFA参与中国大陆区域贸易自由化进程的三种模式均有利于提高台湾来料对大陆出口垂直专业化的贡献度,有利于台湾走出在东亚分工体系中被边缘化的困境,优化海峡两岸产业垂直分工体系。反之,如果中国大陆率先与其他东亚国家实现全面贸易自由化,会给两岸产业垂直分工模式带来一定的负面影响。     

Trade Openness and Vertical Structure: Evidence From Korean Firm-Level Data

Recent theories and empirics suggest that trade openness increases production fragmentation across countries. In this paper, we focus on the relationship between trade openness and firms’ choice of vertical structure. We find supportive, firm-level evidence that upon trade liberalization, firms restructure their organization by downsizing their domestic production processes (i.e. domestic vertical disintegration) and relocating their input production plants to other countries (i.e. cross-border vertical integration).     

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.     

Agricultural trade liberalization and poverty in China

The overall goal of this paper is to examine the impacts of trade liberalization on China's agriculture, in general, and poverty, in particular. The impacts on agriculture are analyzed by commodity and by region. Because different farmers (especially those in different income brackets) produce diverse sets of commodities, the main part of our paper analyzes the effects on households and their implications for the poverty through the simulation of household production and consumption changes in response to the trade-induced market prices changes on a disaggregated (by province), household-level basis. The results of our analysis lead to the conclusion that, unlike fears expressed in the popular press and by some scholars, the positive impacts of trade liberalization are actually greater than the negative ones. Although other effects on the rural economy from trade liberalization of other subsectors (such as textiles) may be equally large or even larger, this study's focus on the agricultural sector shows that there will be an impact from agricultural trade liberalization and that the net impact is positive for the average farm household in China. However, policymakers still need to be concerned. Not all households and not all commodities will be treated equally. Our findings show that poorer households, especially those in the provinces in the western parts of China, will be hurt. The main reason is that the farmers in Western China are currently producing commodities that are receiving positive rates of protection, rates of protection that will fall with additional trade liberalization. Hence, if policy makers want to minimize the impacts, there needs to be an effort to minimize the effect on these households either by direct assistance or by eliminating constraints that are keeping households from becoming more efficient by shifting their production more towards those commodities that will benefit from trade liberalization.     

贸易自由化、劳动流动与就业结构调整

就业结构的适时调整对于中国加快转变经济发展方式有积极意义。本文借助就业结构调整指数的构建,将劳动流动的因素纳入到贸易自由化对中国就业结构调整的影响之中,定量分析了二者对就业结构调整的影响。研究结果表明,贸易自由化程度和劳动流动自由程度的提高对中国就业结构调整有正向影响,但这种影响具有区域差异。     

加工贸易与一般贸易进出口价格的汇率传递估计与比较分析

本文从不同的贸易方式角度对人民币升值的进出口价格传递效应进行了理论建模和实证分析。文章首先依据利润最大化的厂商目标对进出口厂商的定价行为进行模型设定,其次对两种不同贸易方式中进出口价格的汇率传递进行估计和实证检验,最后得出分析结论:人民币升值对我国一般贸易价格的影响较小且不显著,而对我国加工贸易价格的影响较大且显著。     

生态环境保护下的国际贸易的高质量发展研究

自由贸易和贸易保护的不同历史阶段都呈现出对生态环境的影响。生态环境建设的不同阶段也都有贸易的身影。全球化带来的贸易自由化浪潮加剧了生态环境的恶化,因此,走高质量发展的贸易之路是促使国际贸易与生态环境和谐发展的必然选择。发展中国家只有通过增强技术创新、提升企业管理水平等手段增强贸易竞争力,并致力于参与国际规则的制定才能避免生态殖民带来的不良后果。     

贸易自由化对中国工业就业与工资波动性的影响

本文从贸易自由化与中国就业与工资波动性的关系这一新的视角分析了贸易自由化对我国劳动力市场的影响。研究首先在弹性分析框架之下,对贸易自由化对我国工业工资和就业波动性的影响进行了模拟分析。然后采用我国细分工业行业的数据,在估算全要素生产率的基础上,使用回归分析方法进一步考察了贸易自由化对我国工业工资和就业波动性的影响。研究的基本结论是,贸易自由化很可能增强了给定外生劳动需求冲击之下工业劳动者工资和就业的波动性。     

Intra-industry trade of India: Trends and country-specific factors

Intra-industry Trade of India: Trends and Country-Specific Factors. — The analysis in this paper confirms that trade liberalization biases trade expansion towards intra-industry trade (IIT) in India. The increased level of IIT is largely exportled, that is, caused by a faster growth of exports than of imports. India’s IIT is more intense with high-income countries and is characterized by a greater extent of complementarity. Further, certain country-specific factors which are found to be crucial in the models of vertical IIT are pertinent in influencing the pattern of India’s bilateral IIT.     

服务贸易自由化发展的不平衡性分析

多哈回合以来,区域层次服务贸易自由化蓬勃发展,而以GATS为代表的多边层次服务贸易自由化进展相对有限.本文从多边和区域层次角度分析了服务贸易自由化发展呈现的不平衡性.     

Protection and Trade in Services: A Survey

This paper surveys the literature on trade in services, focusing on the policies that are used to restrict such trade, the gains from liberalization, and the institutional mechanisms that have been adopted in the pursuit of liberalization. The paper argues that technological progress and international trade negotiations are likely to keep liberalization of trade in services a high profile policy issue. It also suggests that the research agenda should focus on developing better estimates of the welfare costs of protectionism in the service sector.     

Individual preferences on trade liberalization: evidence from a Japanese household survey

This paper studies an individual’s preference on trade liberalization using a Japanese household survey, the Keio Household Panel Survey. As a result, we show that preferences toward trade liberalization are affected by economic factors (income, gender, family, asset, and job status) as well as noneconomic factors (noncognitive factors and behaviroal biases). We find that male, educated, and people with smaller family prefer trade liberalization. Furthermore, people who prefer liberty to equality and have less local patriotism, tend to be positive to trade liberalization.

     

RTAs框架下的服务贸易自由化分析与评估

国际服务贸易规则的多边化与区域化"并驾齐驱"已成为国际服务贸易自由化进程中的重要特征。本文旨在对RTAs框架下的服务贸易自由化机制进行分析,并在此基础上对32个经济体在RTAs框架下的服务贸易自由化水平进行量化评估,以期在一定程度上把握区域服务贸易安排在多边服务贸易安排基础上所取得的进展。