统计方法在失业风险预警系统中的应用

目前，我国失业风险预警系统的建立尚处于初级阶段。劳动社会保障部课题组通过回归分析确定了影响失业的18个宏观指标为自变量，失业率为因变量，建立了失业风险预警系统的回归模型，又通过德尔菲调查法确定了我国失业警戒线。但是我国各个地区的经济发展水平有着很大的差异，本文主要根据各个地区的经济发展水平进行聚类分析来确定我国各个地区的失业承受力，从而帮助进一步确定各个地区的失业预警线。     

解决中国失业问题的财政政策研究

失业是我国目前社会经济发展面临的一大难题.本文首先介绍了我国目前的失业状况,提出我国财政政策在促进就业方面存在的问题,最后提出了近中期我国缓解失业压力、建立促进就业长效机制的财政政策取向.     

我国失业保险金标准比较分析及科学确定

失业保险制度是社会保障体系的重要内容之一,建立符合我国国情的科学失业保险金标准,是经济社会发展的必然要求。本文通过对现阶段我国各省市确定失业保险金标准的方法进行分析比较,指出了现存确立标准方法的优劣之处。提出在遵循公平原则、保障原则、权利义务对等原则和激励原则的前提下,建立工资关联型失业保险金标准的新方法。     

浅谈我国失业保险制度存在的问题与解决措施

失业保险是社会保障体系的一个重要组成部分,在保障失业人员的基本生活方面发挥着重要的作用。我国失业保险制度起步较晚,因此还存在一定问题。本文对失业保险制度存在的问题进行反思,以真正建立适合我国现阶段国情和经济社会发展水平的失业保险制度。     

浅谈我国失业保险制度存在的问题与解决措施

失业保险是社会保障体系的一个重要组成部分,在保障失业人员的基本生活方面发挥着重要的作用.我国失业保险制度起步较晚,因此还存在一定问题.本文对失业保险制度存在的问题进行反思,以真正建立适合我国现阶段国情和经济社会发展水平的失业保险制度.     

对我国现行失业统计的探讨

我国现行的失业统计已有很大改进,但在失业人口、农村失业和隐性失业统计等还存在一些问题,通过分析这些问题与不足,对我国现行失业统计的改进提出了一些措施,包括:建立健全失业统计指标体系,完善失业统计调查方法;对失业人员的年龄应取消上限;加强下岗职工失业统计;加强隐性失业统计;加强农业失业人口统计.     

社会保障体系运行预警系统研究报告

本项目主要目标是研究中国社会保障体系运行预警理论与方法，为社会保障体系运行预警系统的建立与应用提供基础．具体内容有：养老保险基金收支预测预警系统，医疗保险基金收支监测预测预警系统、失业保险基金收支监测预警系统、失业监测预警理论方法研究、社会保障标准国际比较研究五个方面．     

我国失业状况的统计分析及对策思考

目前，我国失业呈现出越来越严重的趋势，失业的时间结构性、文化素质结构性、年龄结构性和性别结构性特点越来越明显，针对失业较严重的状况，应着力解决好青年人失业问题，对失业较严重的地区实行倾斜政策，大力发展教育事业，解决好下岗职工的再就业问题，引导妇女从事相适应行业的工作。     

中国失业社会保险制度改革探讨

我国的失业保险制度自建立至今已有20多年,失业保险制度经过多年的发展,已经相对完善,在保障失业人员生活和促进就业等方面发挥了很大的作用。本文对此进行了分析研究。     

失业保障制度在反失业中的双重效应及其构建方略

本文首先论述了失业保障制度在治理失业中的积极作用， 认为它虽然不能从根本上解决周期性失业问题， 但却是反失业政策体系中不可或缺的组成部分， 是反失业的“稳定器”和“安全网”； 接着通过一个社会福利博弈模型阐述了过高的失业保障水平对解决失业问题的负面影响； 最后对如何构建和完善失业保障制度提出了一些初步设想。     

论我国农民工失业保险法律制度的建立和完善

农民工工作技能低、流动性大的特点使其失业风险远高于城市劳动者,但由于我国目前有关农民工失业保险法律制度的缺失,使得他们无法获得公平的社会保障,从而面临巨大的生存和心理压力,容易产生种种社会问题。因此构建适合我国国情与农民工自身特点的农民工失业保险制度,既保障了农民工的基本生活,又缓解了社会矛盾,对于当前和谐社会的建设具有重要的现实意义。     

中国失业保险制度改革方向:纳入社会救助——基于历史背景与功能定位的分析

失业保险在建立和长期发展过程中,具有缓和劳资矛盾、天然双向平滑经济波动、提供失业保障和平滑个人收入的基本功能。但随着各国劳动保护及福利制度的发展,失业保险在政治和经济方面的功能减弱,且其失业收入损失补偿功能常常引发失业陷阱,于是各国进行了以促进积极就业为导向的改革。中国失业保险制度曾经为经济体制转型起到了“减震器”的作用。随着劳动保护和社会保障制度的发展和政府就业政策的完善,在二元就业结构、户籍制度、公共部门人力资源管理制度及政府承担就业促进任务的影响下,我国失业保险的政治、经济、失业人口收入补偿、就业促进功能未能有效发挥。在比较了若干改革方案后,本文认为,取消失业保险并将其功能并入社会救助体系是新时代背景下我国失业保险制度的最优改革路径。     

Social Security,Unemployment, and Growth

The paper develops an overlapping generations model that highlights interactions between social security, unemployment and growth. The social security system has two components: old age pensions and unemployment insurance. Pensions have a direct effect on economic growth. Both pensions and unemployment benefits influence equilibrium unemployment caused by wage bargaining. Since unemployment deteriorates growth, both types of social security have an indirect negative effect on growth.JEL Code: E24, H55, J51     

失业保险制度的就业促进效果评估——以内蒙古自治区为例

由于经济发展水平的限制和市场经济体制改革的层次性要求,我国的失业保险制度从建立之初就一直把充分发挥制度的"生活保障"功能作为追求的主要目标,而忽视了失业保险制度的预防失业和就业促进功能。本文以内蒙古自治区为例,运用层次分析法选取了一套较为科学的失业保险制度就业促进效果评估指标,旨在从制度层面分析内蒙古失业保险的就业促进效果。实证研究结果表明,应当建立城镇调查失业率制度、提高失业金替代率、增强就业培训与就业援助的效率、改变参保人群与失业人群错位现象、构建失业保险制度"自动调节机制"、积极探索权力下放和基金投资方式。     

Labor unemployment risk and firm risk

This paper examines the effect of labor unemployment risk on firm risk. Using unemployment insurance benefits as a proxy for unemployment risk, we find an economically significant positive relation between unemployment risk and firm risk. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms that are more labor-intensive, have a higher layoff propensity and are more financially constrained. While existing literature that employs corporate policy measures such as debt and cash holdings suggests an opposite relationship, our paper presents evidence that the effects stemming from earnings management, earnings quality and reporting quality appear to dominate.     

Long Memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates

In this article we have examined the unemployment rate series in Turkey by using long memory models and in particular employing fractionally integrated techniques. Our results suggest that unemployment in Turkey is highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1 in the majority of the cases. This implies lack of mean reversion and persistence of the shocks. We found evidence in favor of mean reversion in the case of female unemployment and this happens for all the groups of non-agricultural, rural, urban, and youth unemployment series. The possibility of nonlinearities are observed only in the case of female unemployment and the degree of persistence is higher in the cases of female and youth unemployment series. Important policy implications emerge from our empirical results. Thus, for example, positive shocks reducing unemployment will have permanent effects being good for the economy, but negative shocks increasing unemployment will also have permanent effects and strong measures should then be adopted to reduce it. Labor and macroeconomic policies will most likely have long-lasting effects on the unemployment rates.     

完善我国社会保障制度的研究

目前我国的养老保险制度、失业保险制度、医疗保险制度、农村社会保障制度等很不完善,与我国经济和社会发展很不协调,因此应加以完善。     

Unemployment Clubs in Russian Regions

In this article, we empirically investigate regional unemployment in Russia. We first detect the existence of two unemployment clubs, that is, regions with high (low) unemployment surrounded by regions with high (low) unemployment, and a group that comprises the remaining regions. We then apply a specially designed class of spatial-econometric models to regional data 2005–2012, using difference GMM, and we obtain partial confirmation of our two main hypotheses: (i) spatial effects for the high-high and low-low clubs regions differ significantly; and (ii) the determinants of unemployment of the two clubs significantly differ with respect to those of the remaining regions. Our results have key implications for the national- and regional-level policies.     

美国失业保险税对我国的启示

美国的失业保险是联邦和州政府的合作项目,它通过失业保险税来融资。其失业保险税立法及执行保障层次高,税制设计科学合理。建议我国在借鉴美国失业保险税制的基础上,尽快颁布《社会保险法》,建立中央和地方两种失业保险税,在具体规定上给予地方一定的自主权,采用失业保险税率的经验评估方法,以进一步改革和完善我国的失业保险缴贲制度。     

Asymmetric Labor Market Institutions in the EMU and the Volatility of Inflation and Unemployment Differentials

How does the asymmetry of labor market institutions affect the adjustment of a currency union to shocks? To answer this question, this paper sets up a dynamic currency union model with monopolistic competition and sticky prices, hiring frictions, and real wage rigidities. In our analysis, we focus on the differentials in inflation and unemployment between countries, as they directly reflect how the currency union responds to shocks. We highlight the following three results. First, we show that it is important to distinguish between different labor market rigidities as they have opposite effects on inflation and unemployment differentials. Second, we find that asymmetries in labor market structures tend to increase the volatility of both inflation and unemployment differentials. Finally, we show that it is important to take into account the interaction between different types of labor market rigidities. Overall, our results suggest that asymmetries in labor market structures worsen the adjustment of a currency union to shocks.