长沙市主导产业的选择研究

选择和培育正确的主导产业是构建更为合理有效的产业结构的关键,长沙市经济要获得新的增长动力,实现经济的平稳健康地发展,正确的主导产业的选择变的至关重要,因为选择正确的主导产业必然成为制定产业政策和经济发展战略的重要问题。本文结合长沙市的实际,应用层次分析法构建了主导产业选择评价模型,确定了以汽车及零部件、工程机械、电子信息和新材料为长沙市的主导产业。     

陕西省主导产业选择

作为经济发展不同阶段的经济增长点,主导产业对国家或地区产业结构的演变方向和趋势具有导向作用,选择和培育主导产业是一个区域实现经济腾飞的重要手段。文章以陕西省为例,用经济学的相关理论和实际数据对主导产业的选择进行分析,希望能对欠发达地区主导产业模式的选择提供参考。     

浅谈西部地区主导产业的选择

西部地区具有独特的优势,这些优势只有在得到发挥是才能转化为促进经济发展的动力。而选择能够发挥这种优势的主导产业十分重要,主导产业的带动作用能够充分利用优势资源促进经济的发展。本文通过对主导产业理论与西部经济现状的分析,提出了西部地区选择主导产业的一些建议。     

广西主导产业的选择及产业结构调整

本文根据主导产业选择理论以及相关判断指标,结合广西经济发展水平和产业结构特征,确立了广西主导产业的选择基准,并通过区位商和市场占有率这两个指标对广西主导产业的选择进行定量分析。统计分析得出,广西的主导产业为有色金属冶炼压延加工业、交通运输设备制造业、农副食品加工业、医药制造业、烟草制造业等。在此基础上,进一步探讨了调整、优化广西产业结构的对策思路。     

基于灰色理论的主导产业选择

<正>构建合理产业结构的关键在于主导产业的正确选择,从研究世界一些国家经济发展的历史中可以明显地看到,当经济发展到一定阶段,原有产业结构已不适应国内市场、国际市场和科学技术发展的需要,产业结构必将发生重大转换。这时,变化主要表现在主导产业部门的更替,通过新的主导产业部门的发展,带动和促进支柱产业以及整个国民经济的发展。这实际上是以非均衡的增长方式来推进经济发展的一种战略。主导产业的更替,标志着产业结构由低技术向高技术转变,实现了产业结构高级化。通过主导产业所具有的较强的吸收新技术的能力和高技术进步速度、高关联度、高技     

主导产业的“圈地运动”

正确选择主导产业,就掌握了经济发展的主动。主导产业能够—马当先,带动其他产业,继而形成万马奔腾的局面,使整个经济增长不断获得新的驱动力。     

论欠发达地区的区域优势分析与主导产业选择

确定欠发达地区的主导产业,从而加快欠发达地区的经济发展速度,提升欠发达地区的产业竞争力,一直是我国理论界和实践界十分重视的研究课题。文章介绍了我国欠发达地区基本含义和划分范围的基础上,提出了欠发达地区区域优势分析的一般方法和主导产业选择的基本标准。     

江西省高新技术型主导产业选择的实证分析

分析了江西省高新技术型主导产业选择的八项指标,结合江西省产业发展的现状和特点,选取了电子信息.航空航天制造业、光机电一体化制造业,生物医药和医疗器械制造业、新材料制造业作为用于分析的高新技术产业,应用大量详实的数据进行了实证分析,以期找出符合江西省经济发展战略目标的高新技术主导产业.     

边缘地区主导产业理论研究述评

边缘地区主导产业研究依托于区域主导产业研究,目前重点集中在三个方面：一是区域主导产业选择影响因素;二是主导产业选择基准;三是主导产业形成的制度环境、文化环境和培育途径方面。缺乏深入研究的是：对边缘地区的产业链问题未给予充分关注,对微观层面企业组织对边缘地区主导产业的形成以及作用机制未深入研究。在理论实践上,边缘地区主导产业政策在制定时往往忽视划分中央与地方政府财权与事权,导致产业政策制定缺乏灵活性、时效性、契合性。这些将会是下一步边缘地区主导产业研究的主要方向。     

内蒙古主导产业选择的实证分析

主导产业对地区经济起着支撑和引导作用。选择好主导产业,对实现地区产业结构的优化升级尤为重要。为此,本文从主导产业选择的一般基准出发,以定量分析为主并结合定性分析方法,对内蒙古未来的主导产业进行了选择,即内蒙古的主导产业应依次为：农畜产品加工业、机电工业、电力工业和高新技术产业。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.