A Neo-Heckscher–Ohlin Model of Trade with Endogenous Production Patterns*

We propose a Neo-Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) model of trade that combines comparative endowment advantage, comparative technological advantage, international capital mobility and trade costs. Using an inframarginal approach, we produce a partition of the exogenous parameter space in a host of parameter value subsets that demarcate the various equilibrium patterns of production and trade. The results are startling! They suggest that production within the diversification cone – a key assumption of the Heckscher–Ohlin theory that is required for its core propositions (such as factor price equalisation) to hold – may only prevail on the razor's edge, or under exceptional circumstances. In addition, our findings nominate a mechanism by which improvements in transaction efficiency facilitate international trade thereby stimulating cross-country division of labour. Contrary to other generalisations of the Heckscher–Ohlin (such as the various derivatives of the Kemp–Jones model of trade), our model does not assume a purely Ricardian character: comparative endowment advantage may determine the pattern of trade even in the presence of opposing technological differences, as long as total factor productivity coefficients adjusted for transaction efficiency and factor intensity do not confer unambiguous comparative (technological) advantage. Still, ‘intensity-efficiency’-adjusted comparative technological advantage supersedes factor endowments in determining the flow of trade.     

INTERNATIONAL AND INTRA‐NATIONAL TRADE: A CONTINUUM APPROACH*

We build up a Ricardian trade model with multiple regions within a nation and examine how international trade determines interregional patterns of production and specialization. We show that the degree of interregional concentration of economic activities moves in different directions in two trading nations. The role of “absolute advantage” becomes crucial in dictating the course of income disparity across regions. We discuss cases with varying degrees of labour mobility and reconfirm the result on post‐trade interregional concentration and dispersion. Later we explore the impact of “scale factor” in this model and show how principle of comparative advantage and economies of scale interact to determine the pattern of specialization and volume of trade.     

论比较优势的成本基础——从生产成本向“全成本”的拓展

贸易理论的历史演进表明,比较优势是一国参与国际分工和贸易的基本动因。古典、新古典和新贸易理论分别从劳动生产率、要素禀赋、生产规模等不同视角论证了基于生产成本的比较优势,进而可表达为"相对生产成本不等式"。随着制度、生态环境、"可持续性"等要素在国际贸易中日趋重要,使用制度要素所形成的交易成本、使用生态环境要素所形成的环境成本、耗费"可持续性"要素所形成的代际成本也逐步成为比较优势的成本基础。于是,可将使用或耗费广义要素的代价理解为"全成本",它构成了一国参与国际分工和贸易的比较优势的基础。     

Shared Renewable Resources: Gains from Trade and Trade Policy

This paper examines the effects of international trade and trade policy in a two‐country, two‐good model with an open‐access renewable resource that is internationally shared. We show that both countries may still benefit from trade when they specialize in the production of their comparative advantage good, although the shared resource is reduced by trade. In addition, we demonstrate that the steady state utility of a resource‐good importing country may be reduced by trade, even if it specializes in the production of a non‐resource good. Import tariffs and export taxes on a resource good may increase or decrease the shared stock level depending on the production patterns in a trading steady state. The trade policy is likely to be Pareto‐improving when the shared stock rises, while both countries may be made worse off by the trade policy when the shared stock falls.     

Against free trade: Neoclassical and steady-state perspectives

The author argues against free trade as a default position for international trade. He shows that arguments for free trade based on comparative advantage do not hold in reality. First, free trade makes cost-internalization for single countries difficult leading to standard-lowering competition and misallocation. Second, the international mobility of capital leads to absolute rather than comparative advantage for single countries, thus leading to maldistribution. Finally, the ecological basis seriously limits the scope for catching-up. Priority should be given alternatively to domestic production of a steady-state type with balanced trade.     

贸易失衡演进历史的国际比较——基于跨时贸易视角的分析

从跨时贸易的视角来看,贸易顺差、逆差的转换是一国跨时贸易模式变化的结果。当期生产能力强、未来生产能力弱时,一国跨时贸易的模式是出口当期产品,进口未来产品,贸易出现顺差;当期生产能力弱、未来生产能力强时,一国跨时贸易的模式是进口当期产品,出口未来产品,贸易出现逆差。跨时贸易模式主要受跨时比较优势的影响,跨时比较优势的变化与一国的技术优势、经济发展阶段、劳动力成本、国际分工地位以及产业结构的演变密不可分。各国贸易失衡的演进历吏与跨时贸易理论相符。     

ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH TRADE IN FACTORS OF PRODUCTION

We study the world trading equilibrium in a Ricardian model, where factors of production are produced and traded. Even in the absence of technology transfer, international investment, research and development, and aggregate scale effects, trade affects economic growth through comparative advantage. Trade may raise the growth rate or leave it unchanged, depending on the patterns of comparative and absolute advantage. Trade in factors of production can effectively equalize technology even when technology transfer does not occur. Factor price equalization may hold, but the Stolper–Samuelson and Rybczynski theorems do not. The transition dynamics can be monotonic or oscillatory.     

Comparative Advantage and Economies of Scale: When Does Ricardo Dominate Smith?

This paper develops a two-country, two-sector (X and Y) model of international trade. One country has comparative advantage in the increasing returns Y-sector. The direction of trade depends on the relative size of the countries and the relative strength of economies of scale and comparative advantage. An equilibrium where the smallest country exports the Y-good and the largest country loses from trade is possible. A dynamic equilibrium where the X-sector is subject to learning by doing locks in the initial pattern of specialization. Yet, there may be few welfare gains from protecting the X-sector in the small country.     

Fragmentation, Engel's Law, and Learning

This paper outlines the conditions under which trade is beneficial for a developing country's growth. A developing country suffers from two disadvantages: low income and a comparative disadvantage in the production of modern manufactured goods—goods which allow a high rate of human capital accumulation through learning by doing. Low income together with Engel's law imply that developing countries consume and produce very few modern goods in autarky and hence grow slowly. With international fragmentation of production, a developing country may find comparative advantage in the production of some stages of modern goods despite an absence of comparative advantage in the production of modern goods under “100% local content.” More resources can then be allocated to the modern goods sector leading to greater learning externalities and hence growth under free trade than in autarky.     

出口贸易、企业异质性和生产率:一个比较优势的分析框架

引入比较优势理念分析贸易与行业生产率增长之间的关系,构成企业异质性视野下出口贸易影响生产率的机理。通过数理模型构建出口贸易、比较优势与生产率之间关系的模型,并通过企业微观数据和行业层面数据对此关系进行实证检验。     

基于人力资本视角的中国服务贸易比较优势分析

随着全球产业结构的升级和国际贸易的发展,服务贸易成为了各国竞争的焦点。研究服务贸易比较优势的形成和转换成为了当务之急。本文从服务贸易总量、国际市场占有率、服务贸易结构三个方面对我国服务贸易的比较优势进行了测度,结果表明我国服务贸易总量增长迅速,远超于世界平均水平,但是总体竞争力低,结构不平衡。运用1982—2006年的数据,以柯布·道格拉斯生产函数为基础,构建服务贸易比较优势影响因素的多要素模型进行实证分析,回归结果显示,物质资本、劳动力、人力资本和FDI对服务贸易出口显著正相关。其中,劳动力的产出弹性最大,人力资本的产出弹性次之,说明我国服务贸易的比较优势主要来源于劳动力,人力资本的促进作用较小,从加大教育投入、增强技术创新、吸引外国投资方面提出促进我国服务贸易比较优势转换的建议。     

Measuring patterns of specialization using trade in value added: the case of manufacturing in Italy

This article aims to contribute to the long-standing debate on the ‘anomaly’ of Italy’s specialization in manufacturing by providing fresh analysis based on new data. It offers: 1) a comprehensive survey of Italian comparative advantages measured in value-added terms and their evolution over time; 2) an international comparison of these advantages with Italy’s main competitors. Results show that the country’s traditional comparative advantages are substantially confirmed, a genuine capacity of the Italian domestic production factors to maintain added value in production with comparative advantage can be observed and new trends in terms of specialization and competitors are also highlighted, showing the influence of the international fragmentation of production on trade and specialization.     

A NEW THEORY OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY AND EMERGENCE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE FROM DOMESTIC TRADE

Abstract. In the paper a fixed learning cost is introduced into a framework with consumer-producers and transaction costs. The fixed learning cost yields a rate of return on the investment in individual specific learning and training which is increasing in its rate of utilization. Division of labor can avoid duplicated learning costs and generate economies of specialized learning. The tradeoff between economies of specialization and transaction costs can be used to explain concurrent increases in the extent of the market, aggregate demand, productivity, trade dependence, the degree of market integration, the degree of production concentration, diversity of economic structure, variety of different professions, each person's level of specialization, and the extent of endogenous comparative advantage and the emergence of international trade from domestic trade. This model explains demand and supply as two sides of the level of division of labor which is determined by a transaction cost coefficient. Hence, the demand law may not hold even for normal goods owing to complicated interdependencies between the level of specialization and demand and between the level of specialization and prices of traded goods. The extended version of this model with the CES function is used to endogenize variety of consumption in addition to the endogenization of individuals'level of specialization.     

比较优势演化、全球价值链分工与中国产业升级

随着全球分工体系的深化与国际贸易形式的演进,国际生产与贸易的格局正经历着深刻的调整,全球价值链成为了当今国际分工的主要发生形式,对各国的价值创造体系持续进行着重构与深化,产业结构也随之发生巨大的变化。自改革开放以来,中国通过参与全球价值链分工使得中国经济迅速发展,但产业结构仍停留在价值链的分工中低端,而要实现经济可持续发展,就必须首先实现产业结构的升级。本文从比较优势的演化入手,讨论了比较优势如何演化以及全球价值链分工与中国产业升级三者的联动关系,分析了中国产业的三大基本特征,认为中国产业升级必须走比较优势非线性演化与线性演化并重之路,促进生产要素的高级化、推进产业模块化、实施产业集群,枸建区域联动的国内价值链体系。     

Pattern of Trade and Economic Development in a Model of Monopolistic Competition

The paper introduces differences in production and transaction conditions between countries into a model of monopolistic competition. It applies inframarginal analysis to show that, as transaction conditions are improved, the general equilibrium may jump discontinuously across different patterns of trade and economic development. A country may export a good in which it has exogenous comparative disadvantage if its endogenous comparative advantage dominates this disadvantage. Countries will choose a trade and development pattern to utilize their net exogenous and endogenous comparative advantages in production as well as in transactions.     

Unemployment of Skilled and Unskilled Labor in an Open Economy: International Trade,Migration, and Outsourcing

We show how international trade, migration, and outsourcing affect unemployment of skilled and unskilled labor, in a framework that integrates the Heckscher–Ohlin model of trade with the Shapiro–Stiglitz model of unemployment. Our approach allows us to analyze changes in not only aggregate unemployment, but also the distribution of unemployment between skilled and unskilled labor. As the analysis demonstrates, the unemployment rates of these two types of labor often move in opposite directions, thereby dampening the change in aggregate unemployment. Results depend on the source of comparative advantage, based on international differences in (for example) unemployment insurance or production technology.     

Labor Markets and Kaleidoscopic Comparative Advantage

Capturing the notion of kaleidoscopic comparative advantage ( Bhagwati, 1998 ), we show that international trade increases the volatility of profitability. In this framework, we address the labor market implications of an increase in openness, when insurance and credit markets are imperfect. With kaleidoscopic comparative advantage, trade raises the likelihood of firm shutdown and worker displacement, which, in equilibrium, affects wage contracts. In a simple model, we analyze the consequences for wage levels, earnings volatility, job instability, and income distribution, of the openness of previously nontraded industries to international trade.     

Predator–prey dynamics in general equilibrium and the role of trade

We examine the implications of trade in an economy with two interrelated natural resources, focusing on the case of a simple predator–prey relationship. We derive a three-sector general equilibrium model where production functions are linked via the ecological dynamics of the natural system. Under autarky, this economy exhibits a steady-state equilibrium that overexploits the prey stock, reducing the linked predator population and overall welfare in the absence of harvesting controls. When two economies engage in trade, differences in the dynamics of the two resource systems can become the basis for comparative advantage. In this case, the predator–prey relationship leads to a source of comparative advantage in harvesting prey for a country with a lower autarky steady-state proportion of predators to prey. This feature has not been noticed in the literature and leads to a counterintuitive implication: free trade can help conserve predator and prey stocks in the country with the higher autarkic steady-state proportion of predators to prey. To illustrate the relevance of our analytic findings, we present the stylized empirical example of the effect of Chinook salmon imports on killer whale populations.     

Recycling and International Trade Theory

Recently recycling and the production of secondary materials have increased in many countries. However, there is little analysis examining the effects of recycling on comparative advantage, trade, and welfare. In a model with recycling sectors, the author examines whether the Rybczynski theorem is valid, how the price effects are modified, how a recycling subsidy changes the production structure and comparative advantage. It is found that demand has an effect on final goods production and comparative advantage since consumption goods are transformed into recycling inputs.     

Patterns of Trade and Oligopoly Equilibria: An Example

This paper investigates, via an example, the effects of oligopolistic competition in a two-country two-good "Ricardian" model of international trade. By contrast with results that apply to the competitive free-trade equilibrium, at the oligopoly equilibrium industries with different technologies can profitably survive. Moreover, it is shown that, in an oligopolistic setting, the pattern of trade cannot be inferred either by pre-trade prices or by the comparative advantage principle.