华北平原不同乡村发展类型农村居民点的比较研究

［目的］通过比较华北平原农业主导型、工业主导型、第三产业主导型和均衡发展型农村居民点的空间形态和演变特征,为合理规划和管理农村居民点用地,实现乡村振兴提供科学参考。［方法］借助eCognition developer 89软件,采用面向对象的方法解译获取1990年和2015年两期农村居民点空间数据; 根据县域中各产业发展水平来划分乡村发展类型; 比较不同乡村发展类型农村居民点的数量、规模、密度、形状等的变化特征。［结果］（1）不同乡村发展类型县域内农村居民点在数量、平均斑块面积、密度和面积占比等方面均有很大差异性。农业主导型县域内农村居民点具有数量多、密度高、单个斑块规模小、总规模大、面积占比大等特征; 工业主导型县域内农村居民点则呈现出数量少、密度低、单个斑块规模大、形状不规则和总规模较小等特点; 第三产业主导型县域内农村居民点的平均斑块面积最小,面积占比最低。（2）不同乡村发展类型县域内农村居民点演变的差异性主要表现在数量和总面积等方面。农业主导型县域内农村居民点演变的主要特征为数量和面积的双高增长; 工业主导型县域则呈现出数量增加较少、面积增加较多,并伴随形状更复杂的特征。第三产业主导型农村居民点的变化在各乡村发展类型中最小,并且农村居民点数量和平均斑块面积均略有减少趋势; 均衡发展型县域内农村居民点的变化主要表现为数量增加,在各乡村发展类型中数量增加最多。［结论］不同类型农村居民点的空间分布和变化差异明显,农村居民点的管控应分类施策,因地制宜,加强制度创新,使不具备区位优势和特殊资源禀赋的地区享有同等的发展权,分类实现乡村振兴。     

乡村振兴背景下河北省县域乡村发展类型及其乡村性评价研究

[目的]乡村振兴战略是新时代国家随着"三农"问题的发展变化而做出的有针对的战略考量,乡村振兴背景下,乡村内部社会经济体系和外部环境发生深刻变化,因此,科学客观地评价乡村振兴背景下乡村发展综合特征及其差异性,并划分乡村发展类型对于新时代乡村发展具有重要的意义。[方法]文章选取河北省为典型实证进行研究,通过构建乡村性评价指标体系对乡村性指数进行测度,运用ESDA等空间分析方法探究空间分异格局,并通过Pearson相关系数矩阵和数理统计方法对乡村发展类型进行划分。[结果]河北省县域乡村性指数差异明显,并呈现出"低值集聚,高值分散"的分布态势;河北省乡村性指数表现出明显的空间集聚特征,并在总体趋势和局部相关性分析中呈现"U"型曲线和"两核一带"的空间格局,邻域单元相互作用显著;根据乡村性指标体系的评价层特征,可以将河北省乡村发展划分为产业主导型、生态友好型、内化提升型、资本推动型和均衡发展型5种类型,不同类型乡村的发展策略和发展道路存在着差异。[结论]乡村振兴背景下乡村发展目标发生改变,通过对乡村性这一综合指标测算可以揭示区域乡村发展的空间格局和类型差异,从而为制定科学合理的乡村发展战略提供参考。     

“资源—要素—政策”相协调下乡村典型发展模式与可持续发展路径探析

[目的]资源、要素与政策是推动乡村发展的必备因素,深刻影响着乡村振兴的进程。梳理资源、要素与政策间的互动关系,理清“资源—要素—政策”互动对乡村发展模式的作用机理,进而提炼4种典型乡村发展模式,并给出不同发展模式的可持续发展路径,以切实促进乡村振兴的提质增效。[方法]文章从资源、要素、政策相协调维度出发,结合国内不同地区的典型成功案例,构建“资源—要素—政策”相协调下乡村发展的理论模型,进而提炼乡村典型发展模式。[结果]（1）资源是乡村发展的基础,要素是乡村发展的动力,政策是乡村发展的催化剂。在政府配套政策的催化下,不同类型的乡村资源在发展要素的带动下会产生不同类型的发展模式。（2）基于“资源—要素—政策”对乡村发展的作用机理,将乡村发展模式划分为：专业化农业发展型、田园综合体发展型、人文生态资源依托型、小城镇辐射带动型4种典型发展模式。[结论]未来,专业化农业发展模式建议持续推进现代农业品牌化、数字化发展;田园综合体发展模式,未来建议坚持生态持续化、生活现代化、产业升级化发展;人文生态资源依托型模式,在以后的发展中建议更注重乡村生态化、旅游休闲化、区域联动化和品牌化;小城镇辐射带动型...     

重庆市乡村旅游资源空间特征及其与乡村振兴关系研究

[目的]探究重庆市乡村旅游资源的结构类型和空间特征,分析乡村旅游资源数量与乡村振兴之间的关系,对重庆市乡村旅游产业发展和促进乡村振兴具有指导意义。[方法]文章利用GIS技术定量分析重庆市乡村旅游资源的空间分布特征,通过空间分布模型探究乡村旅游资源空间分布的聚集程度,利用地理联系率探析人口规模和经济发展水平与乡村旅游资源分布的配合度。采用回归模型从整体上对重庆市乡村旅游资源数量与乡村振兴的关系进行分析,利用Pearson相关系数对不同经济发展区域关系进行研究,试图得到乡村旅游资源数量与乡村振兴的辩证关系。[结果]重庆市乡村旅游资源具有4种类型,农事体验类所占的比重最大,达到43.46%,乡村文化类所占比重最低为2.30%。乡村旅游空间布局特征结果表明重庆市4种乡村旅游类型在空间上的分布存在较大的区域差异,都呈现集中分布, 4种类型的景点与人口和经济的配合度较高。回归分析结果表明,乡村旅游资源数量与休闲农业和乡村旅游接待人次、农村卫生厕所普及率、村综合性文化服务中心覆盖率、县级以上文明村和乡镇占比和农村居民人均纯收入之间存在均衡关系。Pearson相关性分析结果表明除休闲农业和乡村旅游接待人次外,乡村旅游资源数量仅与农村居民人均纯收入之间存在低度相关性,不同经济区相关系数差异较大。[结论]综合以上研究结果,乡村旅游资源的空间分布特征既受当地经济发展的影响,同时又促进当地经济的发展,表明重庆市乡村旅游资源对乡村振兴具有一定的促进作用。建议在今后的发展中应拓展乡村旅游类型,提高乡村文化类景点的数量和比重,促进重庆市乡村旅游产业的均衡发展,实现不同经济区乡村经济的协调发展。     

湖北省乡村人—地—业时空耦合的状态与动态特征

目的 构建乡村人—地—业发展水平评价指标体系,定量分析2009—2017年湖北省乡村人—地—业发展时空耦合特征,探讨其发展状态耦合的分异特征和时空动态耦合的类型规律。方法 文章运用耦合协调度模型分析2009年和2017年湖北省县域乡村人—地—业状态耦合协调的时空格局,运用动态耦合度模型识别湖北省县域乡村人—地—业动态耦合类型。结果 2009年和2017年湖北省乡村地区人—地—业发展状态耦合度较高,呈现出“一圈一轴两片”的空间格局;湖北省乡村人—地—业整体处于初级协调状态,2009—2017年呈现出由勉强和初级协调向初级和中级协调转变发展的趋势;湖北省乡村人—地—业时空动态耦合水平整体明显低于状态耦合水平,其耦合关系可划分为人地业正向发展型、单系统发展滞后型、单系统发展引领型和人地业负向发展型4种类型,整体以单系统发展引领型和滞后型为主。结论 研究有助于把握乡村人—地—业发展的时空逻辑关系,能够为区域乡村振兴分类施策提供重要的决策支持。     

县域乡村振兴指标体系构建及其评价*——以广东德庆县为例

[目的]乡村振兴战略下县域尺度的评价指标较为缺乏,构建县域层面的乡村振兴评价指标体系,为丰富乡村振兴评价提供参考借鉴。[方法]研究围绕乡村振兴战略的"二十字"方针,结合《乡村振兴战略规划(2018—2022年)》主要考核指标,尝试性构建了县域层面的乡村振兴评价指标体系,包括5个二级指标与34个三级指标,采取熵值法评价了2009—2017年德庆县乡村发展现状水平,并根据县域乡村振兴规划目标测算了乡村振兴发展目标值。[结果]2009—2017年德庆县乡村发展总体水平不高,综合得分在0.06～0.1。该期间乡村发展表现为两个特征:2009—2013年乡村发展指数年均增速5.5%,增长平稳; 2014—2017年乡村发展指数年均增速4.6%,增长放缓。同时,对标2018—2022年县域乡村振兴规划还有较大的差距,需要加快发展速度。从乡村振兴各维度看,产业兴旺和生态宜居所占的权重较大,表明在乡村振兴战略中产业兴旺和生态宜居是最主要因素,随后是生活富裕、治理有效和乡风文明。[结论]德庆县是广东中西部山区县,农业产业化程度有待提升,一、二、三产融合亟待加强,生态优势尚未转化为产业优势。随着《德庆县乡村振兴战略规划(2018—2022年)》实施推进,乡村振兴需加快发展速度,从产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕5方面全方位发力,最终实现乡村振兴发展目标。     

西南贫困地区乡村性变化与乡村转型耦合协调关系研究

[目的]随着我国脱贫攻坚、美丽乡村建设、乡村振兴战略的深入推进,乡村性变化、乡村转型发展成为近年学术研究的热点,但关于乡村性变化与乡村转型发展耦合关系尚少有研究。[方法]以西南地区267个国家级贫困县为研究对象,通过建立乡村性与乡村转型发展评价指标体系,采用优化后的熵权法和ESDA方法,研究2015年相对于2005年西南地区贫困县乡村性和乡村转型的空间变化特征;并选择耦合协调度模型探讨乡村转型发展与乡村性的耦合协调关系。[结果]2015年相对于2005年,研究区乡村性变化值在-0.454 4～-0.047 8之间变动,乡村性变化值较大的县域分布于研究区东北部的四川盆地周边低山丘陵和平行岭谷地形区,以及云贵高原的滇中、黔中与城市邻近县域;各县域乡村转型度值在0.190 0～0.646 9之间变化,按照转型度由低到高可以分5级,其中,乡村转型度较低(Ⅱ级)和乡村转型度中等(Ⅲ级)的县域分布广泛;乡村转型与乡村性变化的耦合协调度值在-0.736 3～-0.339 8之间变化,耦合协调类型的空间差异比较明显,有4个县域属于拮抗不协调类型,大多数县域属于低级或中级耦合协调类型。[结论]西南贫困地区乡村性变化和乡村转型发展度在空间分布上与研究区自然地理环境及区位条件的分异大体吻合,地势平缓、区位条件较好县域的乡村性变化、乡村转型度、耦合协调水平整体优于地理条件较差县域。应根据耦合协调发展差异,因地因时制宜强化乡村产业发展、完善基础与公共服务设施,增强区域发展能力建设。     

乡村振兴背景下镇域乡村性的空间分异及乡村发展策略以福建省德化县为例

[目的]评价德化县镇域尺度上乡村性水平,甄别乡村类型并划分乡村发展类型区,提出乡村发展的差别化策略。[方法]文章从乡村性概念模型出发构建综合评价指标体系,采用描述性统计指标作为评价结果的划分依据。[结果](1)山区属性和与城乡二元格局叠加,致使德化县各镇域乡村发展水平及其内部特征具有明显的空间异质性。(2)根据综合乡村性,德化县的所有镇域乡村可划分为3种类型:绝对乡村、相对乡村和城镇,绝大部分镇域处于相对乡村的状态。(3)基于产业要素的发展水平,德化县所有镇域可划分为三大发展类型区:极化突破区、均衡提升区和优化重组区3种。[结论](1)以上3种乡村发展类型区应分别采取"优势极化、规模集聚""协同增长、内聚提升""长短互补,边界跨越"的乡村发展策略。(2)未来乡村振兴应进一步加强对于山区乡村衰落机理和发展路径的研究。     

休闲农业与乡村旅游驱动乡村振兴的海外经验借鉴

[目的]休闲农业与乡村旅游成为中国乡村继工业化模式之后驱动乡村发展、实现乡村振兴的又一重要路径。分析海外发达经济体休闲农业与乡村旅游驱动乡村振兴经验,可为中国大陆推进乡村振兴战略提供参考与借鉴。[方法]通过文献梳理、归纳总结等方法,梳理分析了海外发达经济体的基本做法,形成了相关启示。[结果]海外发达经济体注重以系统的政策与法规保障旅游与乡村融合发展、以权威的行业协会推动乡村旅游可持续发展、以乡村原真性统领旅游产品的创意创新、以品质认证和一体化营销推广乡村和乡村旅游,成为旅游驱动乡村振兴共性经验。[结论]海外发达经济体积累的经验给中国解决旅游驱动乡村振兴面临的诸多困境带来了4点启示:应充分发挥政策引领作用、凸显旅游平台价值、倡导旅游工匠精神和搭建一体化乡村综合服务云平台,从而切实发挥旅游业在驱动乡村振兴中的作用。     

乡村振兴的理论逻辑及发展重点研究*——以陕西关中地区为例

[目的]乡村振兴战略是新时代解决"三农"问题的综合性系统方案,明确新时代乡村振兴的科学逻辑和发展重点,探索因地制宜的乡村振兴战略模式,对有效推动区域农业全面升级、农村全面进步、农民全面发展具有重要的应用价值。[方法]以陕西省关中地区为研究区域,以产业兴旺和生态宜居为核心,在评估乡村发展现实问题的基础上,明确关中地区乡村振兴的理论逻辑和重点任务。[结果]关中地区乡村人均农业资源占有量少,传统农业经营增收困难,而环境门槛的提高和资源禀赋的影响,又使得原本薄弱的非农产业发展面临严峻的生存困境,也加大了农村经济发展和农民增收的压力;因此在农村经济发展受限的情况下,通过县域城镇化和小城镇建设,吸引农业人口就近转移,并据此提高农业人均资源占有量,实现农业增产、增效,同时发展农村新产业新业态,挖掘乡村发展内生动力。同时,在农村人口外流、农业可投入劳动力减少的背景下,乡村发展要通过建设新型农村社区、构建便捷交通、移民搬迁等手段引导居民集中居住,逐步构建合理的镇村体系及其相应的公共物品供给模式,并通过人居环境整治构建符合现代生活需求、彰显乡村特色风貌的乡村。[结论]乡村振兴战略的实施不能就乡村论乡村,应结合新型城镇化和生态文明建设,研究乡村产业振兴与经济发展模式、镇村体系及公共服务配套模式、村庄人居环境整治模式,在此基础上探讨因地制宜的乡村振兴战略模式及实现路径。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.