Earnings Forecasts and the Information Contained in Spinoff Announcements

This study examines spinoff announcements in conjunction with financial analysts’ forecasts of earnings. The analysis shows that spinoff announcement abnormal returns are significantly related to the firm's information environment as proxieci by financial analysts’ earnings prediction errors. The findings also indicate that analysts significantly increase their short-term earnings forecasts in response to spinoffs, but do not significantly revise their long-term earnings forecasts. However, the earnings revisions are not significantly different across prediction error groups, which confirms that spinoff-related abnormal returns cannot be attributed solely to expected performance gains.     

Evidence on the Incremental Information Contained in the Components of Restructuring Charges

Among the new disclosures required by EITF 94–3 is the requirement that firms disclose the nature and amounts of the material components of a restructuring charge. The objective of this paper is to assess whether these components provide information to financial statement users beyond that contained in the aggregate charge. The evidence is consistent with the decomposition of the charge providing incremental information that would be lost if only the aggregate number is reported. The results also appear to suggest that analysts interpret restructurings as bad news and that inventory writedowns and employee terminations are interpreted as the most negative restructuring components.     

Prediction Error of the Multivariate Chain Ladder Reserving Method

Abstract

In this paper we consider the claims reserving problem in a multivariate context: that is, we study the multivariate chain-ladder (CL) method for a portfolio of N correlated runoff triangles based on multivariate age-to-age factors. This method allows for a simultaneous study of individual runoff subportfolios and facilitates the derivation of an estimator for the mean square error of prediction (MSEP) for the CL predictor of the ultimate claim of the total portfolio. However, unlike the already existing approaches we replace the univariate CL predictors with multivariate ones. These multivariate CL predictors reflect the correlation structure between the subportfolios and are optimal in terms of a classical optimality criterion, which leads to an improvement of the estimator for the MSEP. Moreover, all formulas are easy to implement on a spreadsheet because they are in matrix notation. We illustrate the results by means of an example.     

Usefulness of CCA Information for Investor Decision Making: A Laboratory Experiment

The aim of this study was to test the assertion of New Zealand company directors that CCA information was not useful for investor decision making. Subjects made investment decisions based on their predictions concerning two similar, real (identity disguised) companies. These decisions and other evaluations were made in a post-test only, control group design experiment. CCA's relevance and reliability according to particular definitions of these characteristics was thus assessed. The results show that current cost accounts are more useful for investor decision making because they are both more relevant and perceived to be more reliable than conventional historical cost accounts.     

A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility

A multiplicative error model with time-varying parameters andan error term following a mixture of gamma distributions isintroduced. The model is fitted to the daily realized volatilityseries of deutschemark/dollar and yen/dollar returns and isshown to capture the conditional distribution of these variablesbetter than the commonly used autoregressive fractionally integratedmoving average model. The forecasting performance of the newmodel is found to be, in general, superior to that of the setof volatility models recently considered by Andersen et al.(2003, Econometrica 71, 579–625) for the same data.     

Mandatory IFRS Adoption and the Contractual Usefulness of Accounting Information in Executive Compensation

We examine how the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in continental Europe affects the contractual usefulness of accounting information in executive compensation, as reflected in pay‐performance sensitivity (PPS) and relative performance evaluation (RPE). The empirical evidence indicates a weak increase in accounting‐based PPS in the post‐adoption period, primarily driven by countries with large differences between IFRS and their previously adopted local accounting standards. We also document a significant increase in accounting‐based RPE using foreign peers after the adoption. Additional analysis shows that the increase in RPE is greater for firms with more foreign sales, and for those with lower availability of domestic peers of comparable size. The overall results are consistent with the compensation committees in those countries perceiving earnings after IFRS adoption to be of higher quality and comparability. Our paper highlights an important benefit of IFRS largely ignored by the literature, that is, the higher earnings quality and comparability brought by the adoption of IFRS facilitate executive compensation contracting.     

Spatial and Temporal Dependence in House Price Prediction

This paper incorporates spatial and temporal dependence among housing transactions in predicting future house prices. We employ the spatiotemporal autoregressive model and structure the spatial and temporal weighting matrices as in Pace et al. (1998). We control for the time variation of both the attribute prices and the spatial and temporal dependence parameters through performing the analysis on an annual basis. Spatial heterogeneity is accounted for using experience-based definition of submarkets by real estate professionals. Using a comprehensive housing transaction data set from the Dutch Randstad region, we show that integrating the spatial and temporal dependence within the hedonic modeling improves the prediction power as compared to traditional hedonic model that neglects these effects.     

The Information Contained in Reconciliations to Earnings Based on US Accounting Principles By Non-US Companies

To improve comparability of financial statements across countries, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires non-US registrants to either issue financial statements based on US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) or provide in their footnotes a reconciliation of their foreign accounts to their US GAAP counterparts. The New York Stock Exchange has requested the elimination of this requirement on the basis that it serves as a barrier to non-US companies that desire to enter the US market. The SEC maintains that the reconciliations provide important information to investors when assessing the value of a company's stock. This study investigates the information content claim made by the SEC. An event study methodology is utilised that measures the stock price reaction within a short window surrounding the SEC filing date of the firm's 20-F (analogous to the 10-K for US firms). A significantly positive correlation is documented between the stock price reaction and the change in the aggregate reconciliation. This result implies that US GAAP disclosures provide information to the market when the 20-F arrives at the SEC.     

会计信息的信贷决策有用性:基于所有权制度制约的研究

本文在我国制度背景下以两阶Logit回归模型考察我国会计信息的信贷决策有用性。模型包括银行信贷决策的会计财务指标,也包括所有权性质等制度因素。结果表明,会计信息可以降低信贷决策中信息不对称程度,但是信贷决策有用性在所有权制度层面被削弱,主要源于企业与银行均为政府终极所有时银行监督缺位。银行信贷决策中是否使用会计信息不单单是会计信息质量问题,也受所有权制度约束。     

A Sample Selection Model of Consumer Adoption of Computer Banking

We develop a bivariate probit selection model of consumer access and adoption that accounts for the cross equation correlations of the errors. The Survey of Consumers, collected by the University of Michigan, is the database used to estimate the model. We find a significant cross equation correlation between consumers perceived access and their use of computer banking. Based on our results, the bivariate selection model provides asymptotically more efficient estimates than does a single equation model because the bivariate selection model accounts for the sample selection bias associated with access. In addition, the bivariate selection model has a higher percentage of correctly predicted adopters than does the corresponding single equation (univariate) model.     

The Accessibility and Perceived Usefulness of Information on the Capital Expenditure Intentions of UK Quoted Companies

This paper presents the results of two questionnaire surveys concerned with the accessibility and perceived usefulness of information relating to the capital expenditure plans of UK companies. The evidence presented indicates that such information is perceived as potentially useful for external investment purposes by analysts and by corporate financial managers. Moreover, it would appear that analysts do take steps to obtain such information. With regard to accessibility there would appear to be considerable cross-firm variation in the extent to which such information is made available to external investors. The findings also suggest that companies are more likely to disclose news about their capital expenditure intentions (a) when their finance directors perceive the information to be useful to external shareholders, (b) where there is an associated requirement to raise additional external finance, and (c) where the news relates to an increase, as opposed to a decrease, in capital expenditure. These findings are related to the literature on the economics of financial disclosure.     

A Generalized Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Procedure for Estimating a Spatial Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Disturbances

Cross-sectional spatial models frequently contain a spatial lag of the dependent variable as a regressor or a disturbance term that is spatially autoregressive. In this article we describe a computationally simple procedure for estimating cross-sectional models that contain both of these characteristics. We also give formal large-sample results.     

盈余质量对会计信息报酬契约有用性的影响及股权特征的交互作用分析

本文以盈余可靠性维度作为盈余质量的替代,检验管理者报酬契约中的会计监督作用是否存在、其受到公司股权特征制约或促进的程度以及对企业未来业绩的影响。研究发现:(1)从整体情况看,上市公司盈余的低可靠性对管理者报酬—会计业绩的敏感性产生显著负向影响,说明盈余质量影响了管理者报酬契约中的会计业绩度量。(2)政府机构直接控制的上市公司控股股东缺乏监督经理人的剩余索取权激励,在管理者报酬契约制定中对盈余质量的评价监督重视不足。(3)第一大股东对董事会的控制增强了盈余可靠性影响管理者报酬—会计业绩敏感性的程度,在一定程度上说明大股东与上市公司之间在监督激励管理者方面的“治理协同效应”。(4)第一大股东与第二大股东之比对盈余可靠性影响报酬—会计业绩的敏感性程度产生削弱的影响。(5)盈余的低质量使管理者现金报酬的激励效果受到制约,在管理者报酬契约中针对会计信息的可靠性进行会计监督,增强了对管理者进行激励的效果。     

财政分权、空间效应与产业结构升级——基于SDM模型的经验研究

基于2000-2014年中国31个省级面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型分别考察财政收入分权和支出分权对产业结构升级的空间效应以及由此引致的策略性竞争效应,研究表明：财政分权等经济社会因素存在区域差异,这种差异导致产业结构升级在空间分布上具有显著的异质性特征。财政收入分权和支出分权对产业结构升级的影响呈现出非对称的空间溢出效应。一方面,财政收入分权对本地区产业结构升级的影响并不显著,而支出分权对本地区产业结构升级具有积极影响;另一方面,财政收入分权和支出分权对相邻地区产业结构升级均产生抑制效应,但较之于收入分权,支出分权的抑制效应更为明显。     

Optimality of the Friedman Rule in an Overlapping Generations Model with Spatial Separation

Recent models with spatial separation and limited communication suggest that the Friedman rule may not be optimal. This is important in light of the disparity between theory and practice concerning optimal monetary policy. We take a close look at these models and show that intergenerational transfers are key to the suboptimality of the Friedman rule. The Friedman rule is a necessary condition for achieving the efficient allocation in equilibrium. We also show that the Friedman rule is chosen whenever agents can implement mutually beneficial arrangements.     

Decision Usefulness of Cash and Accrual Information: Public Sector Managers’ Perceptions

This study examines the usefulness of accrual accounting information for internal decision‐making contexts in the Western Australian public sector. Based on questionnaire responses of public sector managers, it was found that accrual accounting is perceived to be more useful than cash accounting in 16 of the 19 decision situations. These results suggest that the perceived usefulness of the accrual accounting system has improved with the passage of time. It may well be that perceptions of the usefulness of information derived from an accounting system will change over time as users gain familiarity and experience with a system.     

中国居民储蓄行为误差修正模型

近几年来，居民储蓄持续增加成为人们关注的焦点，央行七次降息且以20％的税率对利息征税，效果不显著。本文用整理论研究了中国居民储蓄行为，建立了误差修正模型，得到了结论。     

非金融支付机构信息安全风险评估模型研究

针对非金融支付机构信息安全管理相对薄弱这一现状,本文以信息安全管理国际标准ISO27001为理论基础,根据非金融支付机构的业务运作模式、信息化基础设施建设及运维模式的特点,通过分析资产、脆弱性、威胁以及风险等关键要素间的相互关系,采用定性和定量评估相结合的方式,从而形成一套较为完善的非金融支付机构信息安全风险评估模型,为人民银行进一步加强非金融支付机构技术监管,保障金融稳定提供科学的方法论支持。