Effect of FDI and Time on Catching Up: New Insights from a Conditional Nonparametric Frontier Analysis

We use an appropriate nonparametric two‐step approach on conditional efficiencies to investigate how foreign direct investment (FDI) and time affect the process of catching up. By using a dataset of 44 countries over 1970–2007, we explore the channels under which FDI fosters productivity by disentangling the impact of this factor on the production process and its components: impact on the attainable production set (input–output space) and the impact on the distribution of efficiencies. We extend existing methodological tools—conditional nonparametric efficiency measures—to examine these interrelationships. We emphasize the usefulness of smoothing over time to better analyze the potential dynamic influence of FDI on efficiency. We find that both FDI and time play an important role as influencing efficiency distribution and affecting, to a smaller extend, the production set. This effect of FDI does not seem to vary much over time. By the second‐stage nonparametric regression of the conditional efficiencies over FDI and time we identify clearly the effect of time and FDI on conditional efficiency and we determine idiosyncratic efficiency, which represents the‘Solow residual’, measured by looking to the unexplained part of the conditional efficiencies. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS BASED ON RECTANGULAR SUPPLY-USE TABLES

This paper formalises the so-called Supply-Use Based Econometric (SUBE) approach that allows for the introduction of econometric analysis in the calculation of backward input–output multipliers of the Leontief-type quantity model, using rectangular supply and use tables. The SUBE approach does not require any kind of inverse matrix and incorporates the traditional approach (with square supply-use tables) as a particular case. The empirical analysis shows that the SUBE carbon dioxide multipliers for the EU27 are considerably lower than those obtained by the traditional Leontief inverse. In an application of the SUBE approach, the European economy appears to emit about 10% less carbon dioxide than in a situation in which it would not import any intermediate inputs from outside the EU27.     

Profit efficiency in the European Union banking industry: a directional technology distance function approach

We employ the directional technology distance function approach and present estimates of profit efficiency in the 25 European Union (EU) member states over the period 1998–2008. This method decomposes profit efficiency into its technical and allocative components. We investigate potential efficiency differences across the old EU region and the new EU member states, across countries and across banks of different size. Our results indicate a significant level of profit inefficiency for the EU region, which is predominantly attributed to allocative inefficiency. Our findings also suggest that banks operating in the old EU region are, on average, more profit efficient than credit institutions in the new EU member states. Overall, we observe considerable variation of efficiency scores across countries and different patterns in efficiency change over time, as well as a negative relationship between bank size and efficiency.     

Brexit and FDI

• The potential for a departure from the EU to undermine the UK's attractiveness as a location for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is often cited as one of the key risks were the UK to leave the EU. In weighing up the threat to FDI posed by ‘Brexit’ we assess the net gain from inward investment and the role played by EU membership in attracting FDI.
• In theory, FDI benefits the economy via lower interest rates, higher wages for workers and ‘spillover’ benefits boosting economy‐wide productivity. But the evidence for these benefits is ambiguous. And FDI has potential drawbacks. These include an adverse effect on the tradeable sector, reflected in a wider current account deficit, the potential to ‘crowd out’ investment by domestic firms and the fiscal cost of subsidies paid to inward investors.
• That almost half of FDI in the UK comes from other EU countries suggests that EU membership is not the only driver of foreign investment in the UK. Other factors include the UK's business friendly environment, as reflected in global competitiveness surveys, and a relatively deregulated labour market. Of perhaps most importance is the lure provided by the UK's large domestic economy. 80% of FDI in the UK is in sectors where sales to the EU account for less than 10% of total demand.
• However, FDI in manufacturing does look vulnerable to Brexit, given the importance of the EU market. Granted, manufacturing accounts for a modest share of UK FDI. But to the extent that FDI boosts productivity, a loss of inward investment in this sector is likely to come at a disproportionate cost.
• Our modelling suggests that in a worst case Brexit scenario, the stock of FDI could ultimately be 7% lower relative to the UK remaining in the EU, potentially knocking around ½% off the level of GDP.

     

Foreign direct investment: A genetic algorithm approach

This paper proposes a genetic algorithm (GA) approach as an analytical tool with a carefully defined fitness function for variable selection. Discriminant analysis will be used as a parameter evaluation method for the analysis of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in China. Results indicate that the proposed GA method is more efficient in classifying “successful or unsuccessful” inward FDI by providing higher accuracy rates while using fewer variables than previous efforts. An implication of this result is that, given a scarcity of resources and the need to promote FDI, the proposed GA may provide a more efficient way to concentrate on those fewer variables found to be important determinants of “successful” FDI inflow.     

Comparative study of FDI in Central and Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean

The European Union (EU) is currently being exposed to strong integration dynamics. However, the full implications of such dynamics for the location of foreign direct investment (FDI) for both the European Union and the bordering countries are not understood. We construct a panel of more than 3500 European multinationals that have invested in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Mediterranean (MED) over the 1990–1997 period in 48 NACE 3 industries. After controlling for industry and time-specific effects, it is found that Central and Eastern Europe displays a greater potential in the attraction of FDI flows when compared to the Mediterranean region.     

Fundamental Tax Reform and Residential Housing

The impact of consumption-based, fundamental Federal tax reform on the housing market has been a controversial and difficult topic. We employ a dynamic, numerical simulation model of the aggregate housing market to augment our understanding of the key forces at work in the short-run and over longer periods. This approach suggests that integrating the short-run and long-term impacts of tax reform leads to the possibility that there will be relatively modest impacts on the nominal values of existing housing. The results indicate that an important topic for future research is the elasticity of housing supply in the short run and long run.     

The impact of productivity adjusted deviations from PPP on the U.S. inbound FDI: Evidence from Japan, U.K. and Germany

In this paper, we investigate the degree to which productivity adjusted deviations from PPP influence the U.S. inbound FDI. Our results show a significant negative relationship between productivity adjusted misalignments and the U.S. inbound FDI from Germany and the United Kingdom in the short-run, and a positive relationship in the long-run. Hence, indicating that a positive misalignment—undervalued U.S. dollar—leads to a decrease in the U.S. inbound FDI in the short-run and to an increase in the long-run. No significant evidence is found for Japan. Interestingly, unadjusted real exchange rate changes show no statistically significant relationship with respect to the U.S. inbound FDI. The authors thank the reviewers for their insightful comments.     

Exchange rate volatility and Spanish-American commodity trade flows

A number of recent studies have tested the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, particularly for individual commodities, for various country pairs. These have found that risk can increase as well as decrease trade, but that oftentimes industries are not affected. This study examines trade between the United States and Spain over the period from 1962 to 2009, for 131 U.S. export industries and 88 import industries. We find that exchange rate volatility has short-run and long-run effects in only a fraction of the cases, but that exports respond more to increased uncertainty than imports do. In all, only 35 of the 74 U.S. export industries are affected (11 positive, 24 negative), whilst only three out of 37 import industries have positive coefficients and 11 have negative ones. We find no evidence that durable or nondurable goods are more likely to respond to volatility, whilst small industries or specialized goods might show more of a positive response.     

Policies to benefit from the globalization of corporate R&D: An exploratory study for EU countries

This article explores how the globalization of corporate R&D has led to the emergence of new policy strategies across the EU, involving a more proactive role of governments and a closer connection between innovation policies and FDI promotion policies. The first part presents an analytical framework encompassing the main policy objectives and instruments at stake, which aims at facilitating the design and evaluation of policies geared towards the globalization of corporate R&D. Both the policies to attract inward FDI in R&D and those towards R&D offshoring are addressed, as well as the distinct policy implications of alternative entry modes. The second part provides evidence of the evolution of European policies in response to the globalization of corporate R&D, pointing out a set of country-specific examples and suggesting avenues for policy intervention at the EU level. Although the focus is on the EU, this study may inform policy learning in other developed and developing countries alike.     

产品内贸易与外商直接投资的关系——理论模型与基于中国数据的经验分析

本文在赫克歇尔-俄林模型基础上建立一个产品内分工的分析框架，把小岛清模型应用到产品内分工上，揭示了产品内分工条件下贸易和投资的互补关系，运用协整方法和误差修正模型，考察了FDI与中国产品内贸易的关系。结果表明，FDI与中国加工贸易进口和加工贸易出口之间均存在长期均衡关系。     

Monetary policy and stock prices in small open economies: Empirical evidence for the new EU member states

This study presents evidence on the effect of domestic and Euro Area monetary policy on stock prices in four new EU member states of Central Europe and the main determinants of stock price volatility, estimating structural vector autoregressive models identified with short-run restrictions. We find that stock prices in the considered new EU member states are more sensitive to changes in the Euro Area interest rate than to the domestic one. Moreover, the bulk of stock price volatility in these countries is due to shocks related to exchange rate and Euro Area monetary policy. Overall, we find that local stock markets are more sensitive to external shocks than to domestic ones.     

Determinants of total factor productivity in former Soviet Union economies: A stochastic frontier approach

This paper investigates the process of GDP generation in former Soviet Union (FSU) economies to provide an understanding of the impact of technology channels on countries’ efficiency. We apply a stochastic frontier approach to 15 FSU economies over the period 1995–2008 and find that FDI and human capital improve countries’ technical efficiency. Furthermore, we show that these factors also have a positive impact on total factor productivity (TFP), which, in turn, improves real GDP growth. Hence, our results suggest that FSU countries should promote public policies that provide incentives to attract foreign investment and enhance domestic education in order to improve their economic growth. Additionally, our empirical evidence argues against the resource curse hypothesis. We also show, by computing efficiency change and technological change indices at the country level, that FSU economies benefit more from exploiting technological progress than from catching up to the best practice frontier.     

DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT – A TALE OF NINE THEORETICAL MODELS

Abstract.  This paper presents a review of nine theoretical models of foreign direct investment (FDI). Discussed are early studies of determinants of FDI (1) as well as determinants of FDI based on the neoclassical trade theory (2), ownership advantages (3), aggregate variables (4), the ownership, location and internalization advantage framework (5), horizontal and vertical FDI models (6), the knowledge-capital model (7), diversified FDI and risk diversification models (8) and policy variables (9). From each of the nine theories, the relevant determinants of FDI are derived. Empirical studies indicate the importance of these determinants in the real world. The paper shows that there is not one single theory of FDI, but a variety of theoretical models attempting to explain FDI and the location decision of multinational firms. Therefore, any analysis of determinants of FDI should not be based on a single theoretical model. Instead, FDI should be explained more broadly by a combination of factors from a variety of theoretical models such as ownership advantages or agglomeration economics, market size and characteristics, cost factors, transport costs, protection, risk factors and policy variables.     

FDI对能源效率的动态影响及其传导机制研究——基于江苏省1990—2011年的经验数据

以江苏省1990—2011年的经验数据为基础,运用状态空间模型考察FDI对江苏省能源效率的动态影响及其传导机制,实证结果显示：FDI对江苏省的能源效率存在较稳定的正向影响,且近些年来这种影响有增强之势;从传导渠道来看,技术溢出比产业结构的传导效果更明显;从传导过程来看,FDI对江苏省能源效率的影响均在两种传导渠道的第一个环节发生了减损。因此,完善投资环境、增强地区经济建设、引导FDI转向服务业是江苏省利用FDI有效提高能源效率的应有之义。     

The dynamics of Central European equity market comovements

This paper examines short-term and long-term comovements between developed European Union (EU) stock markets and those of three Central European (CE) countries which recently joined the EU. Dynamic cointegration and principal components methods are applied, in addition to static tests. While we find no evidence of cointegration for the period July 1995–February 2005 as a whole, dynamic tests reveal alternating period of cointegration disrupted by episodes dominated by short-term domestic factors. Principal components analysis reveals that a stable factor explains a large proportion of return variances. Ultimately, despite the decade-long process of alignment by CE countries with the EU, evidence of steadily increasing convergence of equity markets is lacking.     

Foreign firms in China: modelling HRM in a toy manufacturing corporation

This article reports the study of a large, wholly foreign‐owned toy factory in China. It explores whether foreign direct investment (FDI) manufacturing firms in China inevitably operate in a Taylorist fashion, in contrast to the much praised HR model of blue chip multinational corporations (MNCs) in the country, or whether there is a ‘third way’ in which good HR practices may be adopted on the ground. The article concludes that a more nuanced approach is needed in our study of FDI companies in order to gain a fuller understanding of the institutional and cultural factors at play and of the consequent diversity in the HR and employment practices of FDI firms, instead of being trapped in a simplistic and polarising typological framework of analysis. This study is necessary in light of the growing diversity in the patterns of FDI companies operating in China in terms of their ownership structure, product market, management style and HR strategy, both for managers and for workers.     

Sparse Partial Least Squares in Time Series for Macroeconomic Forecasting

Factor models have been applied extensively for forecasting when high‐dimensional datasets are available. In this case, the number of variables can be very large. For instance, usual dynamic factor models in central banks handle over 100 variables. However, there is a growing body of literature indicating that more variables do not necessarily lead to estimated factors with lower uncertainty or better forecasting results. This paper investigates the usefulness of partial least squares techniques that take into account the variable to be forecast when reducing the dimension of the problem from a large number of variables to a smaller number of factors. We propose different approaches of dynamic sparse partial least squares as a means of improving forecast efficiency by simultaneously taking into account the variable forecast while forming an informative subset of predictors, instead of using all the available ones to extract the factors. We use the well‐known Stock and Watson database to check the forecasting performance of our approach. The proposed dynamic sparse models show good performance in improving efficiency compared to widely used factor methods in macroeconomic forecasting. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

East European prospective members of the European Union under globalisation pressure

Central Eastern European countries will have to find their place in the EU confronted to globalisation challenge. Up to now, except Hungary, becoming an important EU partner in technology intensive industries, they are relying on their labour cost advantage and exchanging lower for higher quality goods. Accession to the EU, changing trading conditions and implying FDI concentration, will be a heavy challenge.     

The exchange rate pass-through in the new EU member states

This paper aims to complete our understanding of the relationship between changes in nominal effective exchange rates and prices in the new EU member states. I investigate the exchange rate pass-through to import, producer and consumer prices for ten Central and Eastern European countries with quarterly data from January 1996 to December 2011. In a first step, the pass-through estimates are derived from a dynamic panel data model through the generalized method of moments. A statistically significant exchange rate pass-through to consumer, producer and import prices is found, both in the short and long run. In a second step, I proceed to an individual analysis, country by country, and find support for an increased heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through estimates. In a third step, I assess the drivers of the estimated exchange rate pass-through coefficients and find support for a significant impact of exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility, import dependence, and the output gap, as well as the global outlook.