组合预测模型在铁路集装箱运量预测中的应用

根据我国铁路集装箱运输发展,研究构建集装箱运量预测模型和方法.基于1999-2008年铁路集装箱运量历史数据和GDP数据,分别选用回归分析模型、灰色系统预测模型、BP神经网络预测模型,预测2009-2014年铁路集装箱运量,根据各方法的误差确定权重,进行了运量组合预测.组合预测模型能在一定程度上提高预测精度,对铁路集装箱运量预测是可行的.     

残差灰色预测模型在物流需求预测中的应用

为了提高预测精度,在灰色预测模型的基础上建立残差灰色预测模型,对物流需求进行预测,并以实际铁路货运量算例为基础,作分析比较。结果表明,该方法具有预测精度高、理论可靠、计算简单等优点,具有良好的实用性。     

基于IOWA组合模型的高速铁路客运量预测研究

准确预测高速铁路客运量,对铁路资源配置及经营管理具有重要作用。在考虑高速铁路客运量存在多重相关性影响因素和灰色特性的基础上,运用偏最小二乘回归模型和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对我国高速铁路客运量进行预测,通过采用IOWA算子,依据单项预测方法在样本区间上各个时点的预测精度从高到低按顺序赋权,以误差平方和为准则构建IOWA组合预测模型,并运用该模型对"十三五"期间我国的高速铁路客运量进行预测。预测结果表明,IOWA组合预测模型能提高预测精度。     

运用前向神经网络法预测铁路客运量

为提高铁路客运量的预测精度,应用一种非线性预测方法:多层前向神经网络建立铁路客运量预测模型。在介绍误差修正学习算法和误差反向算法的基础上,通过预测实例计算,与其他3个常用预测模型:多元回归模型、简单移动模型和平均移动模型进行预测比较,结果表明误差反向算法的多层前向神经网络模型预测精度最高。     

基于改进LSTM模型的铁路客运站客流预测研究

准确地预测旅客到达数量有助于缓解铁路客运站运营压力。为实现铁路客运站客流量预测,以铁路客站进站闸机数据为研究对象,分析不同时间维度下铁路客运站客流的时间分布特征,采用层次聚类算法和阈值聚类算法综合对客流量进行聚类分析。针对传统LSTM模型输入数据分割尺度较大导致网络层数深度不够的问题,构建了改进型LSTM客流预测模型。以北京西站实际客流数据进行方法验证,并将预测结果与其他传统预测模型进行比对分析。结果表明：改进LSTM客流模型有较好的预测结果,比其他传统预测模型预测精度高,预测指标中平均绝对误差(MAE)低10%。说明该方法能较好地刻画客流的时间相关性,深度挖掘客流变化的内在机理,预测性能有明显提升。     

BP神经网络——马尔科夫模型在军用油料消耗预测中的应用研究

作者利用BP神经网络-马尔科夫预测模型对油料消耗进行了预测，将预测结果同实际值进行了对比分析．得出了BP神经网络-马尔科夫预测模型能够对油料消耗进行准确预测的结论。     

“丝绸之路经济带”背景下兵团物流需求方法研究

为更好地服务于丝绸之路经济带建设,促进新疆生产建设兵团区域经济发展,通过分析影响兵团物流需求量的因素,确定兵团物流需求主要影响因素。结合兵团的实际情况与预测方法的适用条件,分别选择灰色预测模型、BP神经网络模型和灰色-BP神经网络组合预测模型对兵团物流需求量进行预测。最后通过实证分析得出组合模型的精度最高,并应用灰色-BP神经网络组合预测模型对兵团的物流需求进行预测,为兵团区域物流总体规划提供参考依据。     

铁路客运量前景预测模型

通过对当前存在的各种预测模型分析,找出其优点与不足,利用统计方法建立了铁路客运前景预测模型。该模型从影响铁路客运量的因素分析入手,选取了与客运量密切相关的指标进行预测,得出较精确的定量预测结果,以便于决策者使用。     

北京地铁换乘站客流预测模型研究

根据北京地铁全网一票换乘和一卡通无障碍换乘机制,以及早晚高峰出行等特点,对各种地铁客流预测模型进行分析,研究北京地铁换乘站客流预测模型的应用。依据换乘站不同类型的客流,以北京地铁历史客流和实时客流数据为基础,探讨采用历史平均预测法、基于最小二乘支持向量机时间序列预测法、分峰段混合预测法、基于概率树全路网预测方法等对进站客流、出站客流、换乘客流和站内客流进行预测。     

基于组合模型的高速铁路动车组需求量预测方法研究

为提高高速铁路动车组资源配置和运用效率,研究高速铁路动车组需求量预测方法。考虑高速铁路动车组运用特点,综合分析人口、GDP、高速铁路营业里程、列车开行方案等高速铁路动车组需求量内外部影响因素,构建基于组合模型的高速铁路动车组需求量预测模型。通过高速铁路动车组近远期需求量预测,运用历史数据对预测模型进行了验证。预测结果表明,平均绝对误差为3.56%,呈现出较高的预测精度,验证了该模型的有效性与可信度。     

为发展服务让百姓得益--高速公路服务区经营的实践与思考

江苏京沪高速公路有限公司在服务区的经营管理中，以经营高速公路的理念引领企业跨越式发展，服务区综合经营2002年创造了与上年同比增长400％的业绩，成为企业发展新的增长点和闪光点，形成了市场化、人性化、多元化的经营发展模式。     

A method for quantifying travel productivity for corporate travel managers

For large corporations with significant travel budgets, the efficiency in execution of employee travel is critical to the productivity of the enterprise. Air travel disruptions (i.e. delays, cancellations, missed connections) prevent employees from performing enterprise related tasks resulting in lost billable revenue and unbudgeted Indirect costs (e.g. unplanned overnight stays for stranded passengers, and idle time charges). Since travel disruption data is not readily available to Corporate Travel Managers, the Indirect charges cannot be included in budgets, and the magnitude of lost billable revenue is not known. Further, without measuring the travel delays and their impact, it is not possible to understand the underlying causes of the delays to improve the process.This paper describes a method for providing Corporate Travel Departments travel disruption statistics and their impact on revenue and profits. The method overcomes the problem of the absence of data by deriving travel delay statistics for corporate travel from publicly available historic airline flight data-bases. The method also uses a travel delay cost model to estimate the financial impact of travel disruptions. The implications of these results on Corporate Travel Management (CTM) productivity improvement strategies, corporate travel and indirect budgets, contracts with travel providers, and travel insurance are discussed.     

A MIP model for locating slow-charging stations for electric vehicles in urban areas accounting for driver tours

In this paper we propose an improved mathematical model for locating EV charging stations. We consider the successive activities of the travelers, i.e., a person with two main stops during the day should charge the vehicle in just one of the parking spots, hence avoiding double counting the demand. The model is tested for the city of Coimbra (Portugal), where there is a network of nine stations. We conclude that our solution is better than the one that was implemented in reality, moreover we are able to conclude that demand transference has a rather significant impact on the solutions.     

港口集团企业经营风险控制策略探讨

随着我国市场经济的快速发展,企业风险管理的重要性不断提高。为了指导中央企业开展全面风险管理工作,2006年6月6日,国家国有资产监督管理委员会发布了《中央企业全面风险管     

Cruising for parking

Suppose curb parking is free but all the spaces are occupied, and off-street parking is expensive but immediately available. In this case, you can cruise to find a curb space being vacated by a departing motorist, or pay for off-street parking right away. This paper presents a model of how drivers choose whether to cruise or to pay, and it predicts several results: you are more likely to cruise if curb parking is cheap, off-street parking is expensive, fuel is cheap, you want to park for a long time, you are alone in the car, and you place a low value on saving time. The model also predicts that charging the market price for curb parking—at least equal to the price of adjacent off-street parking—will eliminate cruising. Because the government sets curb parking prices, planners and elected officials strongly influence drivers’ decisions to cruise. The failure to charge market rates for curb parking congests traffic, pollutes the air, wastes fuel, and causes accidents. Between 1927 and 2001, studies of cruising in congested downtowns have found that it took between 3.5 and 14 min to find a curb space, and that between 8 and 74 percent of the traffic was cruising for parking.     

Shipping design for compliance and the performance contingencies for shipping firms

Increasing number of shipping firms adopt green shipping practices that emphasize environmental management throughout their operations. To balance productivity with the environment, the design of shipping activities in compliance with energy saving and resources conversation is an important part of greening efforts by many shipping firms. This study investigates how the green practices on shipping design for compliance (SDC) adopted by shipping firms is related to their financial and service performance with the role of company policy and procedures and shipper cooperation examined. We find that SDC is beneficial for the financial and service performance of shipping firms. Based on the contingency theory, we argue further that company policy and procedure as well as shipper cooperation differentiates the performance outcomes of shipping firms in their SDC for environmental management. Our empirical findings show a positive relationship of SDC with service performance particularly when their company policy and procedure and shipper cooperation are characterized at high than low levels in the process. However, such strengthening effects are not found for the relationship between SDC and the financial performance of shipping firms.     

Research agenda for low-carbon mobility: Issues for New World cities

ABSTRACT

Low-carbon mobility (LCM) features strongly in debates about the sustainability of cities and their resilience in the face of demographic, economic, and climate change. Transport is a major source of carbon emissions and there are indications that these continue to increase, despite the considerable recent advances in vehicle, engine, and fuel technologies. Reducing carbon emissions from transport may become more difficult, not easier. A particular issue relates to the New World cities, typified by those of North America and Australasia, which largely developed from the latter half of the nineteenth century onward and whose transportation systems were largely based around private vehicle ownership and usage. These cities are typically composed of low-density, dispersed suburbs, which are highly car dependent and resource and carbon emission intensive. This article develops a research agenda directed at determining and testing policy and planning measures relevant to the quest for low carbon mobility in New World cities. It suggests a rich agenda for essential research on LCM. Much of this agenda falls within the realm of the integration of transport and land use, with attention to urban design details to enhance the perceptions of and opportunities to use low carbon transport alternatives. Research topics identified for LCM research include (1) urban design and land use–transport integration (LUTI), (2) low carbon mobility policies directed at achieving widespread behavior change, (3) opportunities for new technology and its application, including requirements for systems and infrastructure, and (4) analysis and tools for informed decision making, including modeling, measurement, visualization, and especially assessment.     

谋求长远发展构建铁路多元经营新格局

总结了铁路多经业１５ 年来取得的成绩,指出在新形势下铁路多经业发展必须明确方向,合理分工,走专业化经营道路,建立强大多元事业群体。     

Accessibility evaluations for nighttime walking and bicycling for low-income shift workers

This paper addresses an important issue related to nighttime commuting of low-income shift workers who walk and/or bike to their workplace using public transit. A shift worker is anyone who follows a work schedule that is outside of the typical daytime working hours of a business day and commute after dark - by walking or bicycling to a transit stop. However, poor visibility conditions on sidewalks and bicycle lanes often thwart safety of their walking and bicycling activities. Therefore, this paper develops two simple scores - nighttime accessibility score for walking (NASW) and nighttime accessibility for bicycling (NASB) - for evaluating nighttime infrastructure for pedestrians and bicyclist. The scores consider the employment data, travel time and the physical distribution of streetlight poles along the sidewalks and bicycle lanes. Data from the city of El Paso in Texas is used to demonstrate the applicability of the two scores. Employment data from three prominent service industry sectors known to employ low-income shift workers – i) Retail Trade, ii) Accommodation and Food Services, and iii) Health Care and Social Assistance – are used for demonstration purposes. It is observed that amongst the three sectors analyzed, both NASW and NASB values are higher for regions in El Paso with low-income employment concentrations from the Health Care and Social Assistance sector. It is also observed that some prominent regions in north-east, south-east and west of El Paso need improvements in streetlight systems, sidewalks and bicycle network to facilitate walking and bicycling amongst low-income shift workers employed in Retail Trade, and Accommodation and Food Services industry sectors to access transit stops at night.