Trade and Tax Reforms in a Cash‐in‐Advance Economy

We examine the effects of both tariff‐only and coordinated trade‐tax reforms on market access, government revenue, and welfare for a small monetary economy, under the assumption that a certain fraction of purchases of each good must be financed with cash held in advance. We show that if the cash requirement ratio in the exportable sector is greater than that in the importable, then, contrary to previous results, (i) a uniform radial reduction of tariffs has ambiguous effects on both welfare and market access, (ii) tariff and consumption tax reforms that leave consumer prices unchanged may be more efficient in improving market access and welfare than a reform that involves only tariffs, and (iii) export and production tax reforms that keep producer prices unchanged may be welfare deteriorating.     

S‐curve Dynamics of Trade in Africa*

Abstract: Two concepts summarize the short‐run relationship between the trade balance and the terms of trade or the real exchange rate, the old concept known as the J‐curve and a new concept that comes under the heading of the S‐curve. The S‐curve introduced in 1994 basically claims that while the cross‐correlation between past value of the trade balance and current value of the exchange rate is negative, the correlation is positive between the future value of trade balance and the current value of the exchange rate. In this paper we investigated the experiences of 20 African nations and found support for the S‐curve in eight of them.     

Testing Conflicting Political Economy Theories: Full‐Fledged versus Partial‐Scope Regional Trade Agreements

We apply a duration analysis to test the conflicting predictions of the median voter model and the lobbying model using panel data on regional trade agreement (RTA) formation. Our results show that the pro‐labor prediction of the median voter model is supported by the full‐fledged free trade areas and customs unions (FTAs/CUs), while the pro‐capital prediction of the lobbying model is supported by the partial‐scope preferential trade arrangements among developing countries. This finding holds better for the country pairs with more different capital‐labor ratios as a result of the stronger distributional effects of RTAs. The support for the median voter model (lobbying model) is stronger when the two countries in a pair have left‐oriented (right‐oriented) governments. I also find stronger support for the median voter model for the subset of FTAs/CUs with service coverage and stronger support for the lobbying model for countries that place higher weight on political contribution.     

“Exports‐at‐Risk”: The Effect of Multimarket Contact in International Trade

Despite a well‐established literature examining possible impacts on competition in oligopolistic markets from multimarket contact (MMC) among diversified firms, only recently have trade theorists considered the possible effects of MMC among exporters in limiting the anticipated procompetitive role of imports. This article presents a first effort to test the empirical importance of a measure of this MMC, called “exports‐at‐risk,” on import prices (unit‐values). Suggestive evidence of anticompetitive impacts of MMC among exporters is obtained for highly traded four‐digit harmonized system (HS) products within the broad category of “fats and oils.” Exporters in fats and oils seem to price higher in markets where they meet rivals with the ability to retaliate against their “exports at risk.”     

China's Anti‐dumping Problems and Mitigation through Regional Trade Agreements

The present paper explores the opportunities for China's regional trade agreement (RTA) initiatives to mitigate its anti‐dumping problems. The paper highlights the severity and discriminatory nature of China's anti‐dumping problems. The high concentration of the share of anti‐dumping actions taken by the top 4 and top 8 anti‐dumping initiators is noted. Our finding of a weak effect of existing RTAs on mitigating China's anti‐dumping problems supports the argument that China could become more active in mitigating anti‐dumping problems through RTA negotiations. An RTA can include a higher level of openness in exchange for an improvement in regional anti‐dumping provisions. Case studies on RTAs involving the EU, the USA and India offer some precedents for offering inducements and modifying regional anti‐dumping provisions. The approaches for China may lie in obtaining market economy status from intensive anti‐dumping initiators at RTA levels and also altering regional anti‐dumping provisions that could be put in place in exchange for some potential concessions.     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

Institutional Quality and CO2 Emission–Trade Relations: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa

This paper examines the roles of trade, institutional quality and their interactions in explaining carbon dioxide emissions in a panel sample of 40 Sub‐Sahara African countries using the system generalised method of moments. We find that institutional reforms are unequivocally environmental improving. Meanwhile, the impacts of trade on the environment tend to depend on the institutional setting of a country. More specifically, trade openness is harmful to the environment in countries with low institutional quality and beneficial to the environment in countries with high institutional quality. This means that institutional reforms are a perquisite for the countries with low institutional quality to actualise the beneficial environment effect of trade. As for the countries with adequate institutional quality, trade and institutions are reinforcing each other in bringing down pollution. From these results, we conclude that trade openness implemented in a sound institutional setting potentially brings better trade, more growth and better environment.     

Trade Reform and Manufacturing Pricing Behavior in Four Archetype Asia‐Pacific Economies*

General equilibrium models are constructed of four Asia‐Pacific economies that differ according to their levels of development, the comparative sizes of their manufacturing sectors and their patterns of comparative advantage and trade protection. The countries chosen are Australia, an industrialized importer of manufactures; Japan, an industrialized exporter; the Philippines, a developing importer; and the Republic of Korea, a developing exporter. Manufacturing industries are characterized as comprising identical oligopolistic firms producing homogeneous goods that are differentiated from competing imports. Oligopoly behavior notwithstanding, trade reforms are found to yield conventional results in that net economic gains are small while implicit transfers are substantial. More competitive (non‐collusive) pricing by oligopolistic firms, which might be achieved through reform of competition law and trade practices surveillance, yields larger net gains and these gains tend to accrue to all domestic primary factors. Such reforms also yield substantial interaction between oligopoly behavior and economic and industrial structure.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: An Empirical Investigation from Cross‐country Comparison

Abstract: This paper investigates empirically the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of six countries over the quarterly period of 1980–2005. The impact of a volatility term on trade is examined by using an Engle‐Granger residual‐based cointegrating technique. The major results show that increases in the volatility of the real exchange rate, approximating exchange‐rate uncertainty, exert a significant negative effect on trade for South Korea, Pakistan, Poland and South Africa and a positive effect for Turkey and Hungary in the long run.     

China's Free Trade Ports: Effective Action Against the Threat of De‐globalization

With sluggish external demand and increasing trade protectionism by the USA and the European Union, China is facing severe challenges in implementing its deeper, ongoing reforms. To respond actively to such challenges, the Communist Party of China's 19th National Congress proposed to “promote a new pattern of all‐round opening up.” In particular, the establishment of free trade ports is considered an important means to realize deeper integration with the world economy. This paper discusses the background, the motivation, the possible challenges as well as a feasible path for the successful implementation of free trade ports in China. Based on the international experience, the construction of free trade ports in China requires freer trade in goods, high mobility of talent and free capital flow.     

EU Anti‐dumping Measures against ASEAN Countries: Impact on Trade Flows*

In the present paper, anti‐dumping (AD) duties levied by the European Commission against products from ASEAN countries in the period 1991–2001 have been considered. The ASEAN countries were among the countries most targeted by AD measures imposed by the EU in the 1990s. A panel regression has been applied to estimate the impact of AD duties on trade in some 12 products that have been subject to AD duties targeting ASEAN countries in the period considered. A significant negative impact of AD duties is found, on both the value and the quantity of imports from ASEAN countries. Our estimation provides some (although not overwhelming) indications of trade diversion in favor of EU countries, but no evidence of trade diversion in favor of non‐targeted non‐EU countries.     

Study of the Measurement and Determinants of Intra‐industry Trade in East Asia*

The present paper investigates the development of intra‐industry trade (IIT) among the East Asian economies over the 1970–1996 period. A dynamic index is used to capture the changes in the structure of trade flows. Based on this approach, IIT is decomposed into horizontal (HIIT) and vertical components (VIIT) and the determinants of each are investigated. The results show that both HIIT and VIIT have exhibited increased importance over the sample period in manufacturing. Using pooled panel data the two‐way trade in all measures of IIT is found to be positively related to the country‐specific variables, such as the market size, exhange rate depreciation, the levels of development and income, and negatively to the geographic proximity of the partners. Economies of scale are seen to have a positive influence on IIT and HIIT, but a negative relationship with VIIT. Although the relative openness of a country's trade regime shows no significant relationship with any form of IIT, a trade imbalance does affect IIT and HIIT flows. The findings have implications for assessing the structural adjustment costs associated with the trade liberalization process as HIIT is associated with demand for variety and relates to two‐way trade in goods of similar quality, while VIIT is driven by international specialization and differences in relative factor endowments.     

Revenue Implications of Continental Free Trade Area: A Short‐run Perspective of Malawi

The study estimates, in the short run, the tax revenue implications of Malawi joining the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) using liberalization approaches and the SMART Model. The results show that Malawi is likely to benefit from joining the AfCFTA through trade creation. However, revenue losses are imminent and more pronounced for capital goods. The study recommends that Malawi should join the AfCFTA and liberalize while keeping a substantial portion of tariff lines for sensitive products and excluded products over a longer period of liberalization. The exclusion list should contain a significant amount of capital goods to minimize short‐run negative revenue impacts.     

Trade openness,FDI, and income inequality: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa

The motivation for this study stems from the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN‐SDGs) and their impact by 2030. The UN highlights 17 SDGs that address pertinent local and global issues, one of which—SDG‐10—has been devoted to reducing inequality. This study investigates the nexus between trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), and income inequality in sub‐Saharan Africa using panel data from 2000 to 2015 and the generalized method of moment (GMM) technique approach. The findings show that FDI and income have a negative, statistically significant relationship with income inequality, signifying that as FDI and income per capita increase, the level of income inequality decreases. However, trade openness, education, political stability, corruption, and rule of law have a positive, statistically significant relationship with inequality. This study, therefore, offers some recommendations that will help policymakers. First, develop good policies to attract more foreign investors, which will contribute to creating employment opportunities in the region. Second, create more infrastructures to provide good quality education. Third, implement a good policy to motivate local production which will contribute to creating jobs. Fourth, build a strong institution(s) to fight against corruption.