Censored Quantile Regressions of Chronic and Transient Seasonal Poverty in Rwanda

It is crucial for social policy in Less Developed Countriesto identify correlates of poverty at the household level. Thishas been done in the literature by estimating household povertyequations typically with Tobit and Probit models. However, whenthe errors in these equations are non-normal and heteroscedastic,which is usually expected, these models deliver biased estimates.Using quarterly data from Rwanda in 1983, we reject the normalityand homoscedasticity assumptions for household chronic and transientlatent poverty equations. We treat this problem by estimatingcensored quantile regressions. Our results of censored quantileregressions and of inconsistent Tobit regressions are substantiallydifferent. However, in the case of chronic poverty the signsof the apparently significant coefficients are generally inagreement, while for seasonal transient poverty different variableshave significant effects for the two estimation methods. Oursecond contribution is to study, for the first time, correlatesof poverty indicators based on quarterly consumptions. Our resultsshow that in Rwanda different correlates are significant forchronic poverty and for transient seasonal poverty. The effectsof the main inputs (land and labour) are more important forthe chronic component of poverty than for the transient one.Household location and socio-demographic characteristics playimportant roles that are consistent with usual explanationsof poverty in the literature.     

Poverty and Other Determinants of Child Labor in Bangladesh

In this research we examine poverty and other determinants of child labor in Bangladesh. We define income quintiles as a means of measuring family poverty and add child and family characteristics to our model. We estimate the likelihood that a child will work, using separate logistic regression models for younger and older boys and girls in urban and rural areas. Our results support the notion that a family's poverty affects the probability that a child will work; keeping children away from work is a luxury these families cannot afford. Moreover, it is important to examine separate demographic groups in order to fully understand the determinants of child labor in Bangladesh since the effects of child and family variables on the probability that a child will work differ among these groups.     

Vulnerability of Vietnamese Elderly to Poverty: Determinants and Policy Implications*

We identify determinants of elderly poverty in Vietnam using household survey data from 2004. The elderly living in urban and rural areas face significantly different conditions. Some factors impact poverty in both urban and rural areas (e.g. age, marital status, region and remittance receipts), some factors are insignificant in both areas (e.g. living arrangements and household head characteristics) and some factors have a differing impact in the two areas (e.g. gender, ethnicity, and household composition and size). With these findings, we formulate policy priorities, including reducing regional disparities, promoting the rural economy and reforming social security.     

关于日元国际地位影响因素的实证分析

早在20世纪70年代,日本便开始了其日元的国际化进程.但是经过30多年的努力,日元却旱早地退出了国际货币的第一阵容.实证结果表明,在日元的国际化进程中,日元国际地位的变化受到了多方面因素的影响,如日本的对外贸易规模、对外贸易结构、日元的稳定性、美元的粘滞作用以及日本国内金融市场的发达程度等,但归根结底还是取决于日本本国国内的经济和金融基础.在当今美元霸权主导的国际货币格局下,日本在其国内经济和金融基础尚不够坚实的条件下,企图依靠对外贸易规模的扩张来直接实现日元国际化的下场注定是可悲的.分析日元国际地位的影响因素对人民币的国际化提供了一定的启示.     

Determinants of Well‐being and Poverty Changes in Cameroon: 2001–2007

Abstract: This paper identifies and decomposes sources that explain household economic well‐being in Cameroon. It uses the 2001 and 2007 Cameroon Household Consumption Surveys, synthetic variables constructed by the multiple correspondence analysis and econometric approaches that correct for potential endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity in a step‐wise manner and simultaneously. Sources of well‐being that explain poverty are then decomposed into growth and redistribution components. Variables that significantly explain household economic well‐being are education, health, household size, fraction of active household members, working in the formal sector and area of residence. Decomposition analysis shows that the growth components largely account for changes in deprivation in terms of each regressed‐income source. With the exception of the income source education, redistribution components slowed down progress in alleviating shortfall in other regressed‐income sources. These results have implications for public interventions that affect education and health for all, labour market participation and infrastructure development.     

中国服务业利用外商直接投资:现状、问题与影响因素分析

自改革开放以来,我国服务领域开放度逐步提高,服务业吸引外资也有了较大的发展。随着我国加入WTO后对具体承诺的实施,服务业将成为我国对外资开放程度最大的投资领域。本文从全球外国直接投资行业结构演变的特点出发,深入分析我国服务业利用外资的现状、问题与影响因素,并在此基础上提出提高我国服务业引资水平的相关对策。     

贫困问题与广东扶贫措施浅析

如何搞好扶贫工作是解决“三农”问题的重要内容，本文通过贫困问题的解读和广东扶贫措施的回顾和分析，使我们了解什么是贫困，扶贫的重点应放在哪里，以及应注意避免哪些误区。     

Rural Income Poverty in Western China Is Water Poverty

I. IntroductionThe elimination of poverty lies at the heart of development economics, and providesthe main justification for policies of promoting economic growth and development allover the world. Although arduous efforts have been devoted to poverty reductionworldwide, about 1.2 of 6 billion live on less than $1 a day (World Bank, 2002). AlthoughChina has reduced its poor population from 250 million in 1978 to 30 million in 2003, anoverall reduction in world poverty still depends on progre…     

Assessing Poverty Trends in Indonesia by International Poverty Lines

Indonesia has made well-documented and drastic progress in raising average incomes and reducing poverty. This article adds to the literature by providing a complementary perspective of poverty between 1984 and 2011. We discuss the evolution of poverty in Indonesia using international poverty lines—$1.25 per person per day (in 2005 purchasing power parity dollars) and $2.00 per day, and we add $10.00 per day. We generate estimates of poverty since 1984 and make projections based on various trends in growth and inequality. We find that Indonesia has the potential to become a high-income country by around 2025 and end $1.25-per-day and $2.00-perday poverty by 2030, but this will require strong economic growth and favourable changes in distribution. Looking ahead, the end of poverty in Indonesia may mean that a large proportion of the population will remain vulnerable to poverty for some time to come, suggesting that public policy priorities will need to balance insurance and risk-management mechanisms with more ‘traditional’ poverty policy.     

社会保障制度中贫困线和贫困率的测算

确定合理的贫困标准和贫困线是建立社会保障制度的重要一环。本文从贫困的定义与分类出发,论述了计算贫困线和贫困率的几种主要方法,然后提出了利用收入分布函数计算贫困线和贫困率的新方法。本文还同时提出了一种拟合收入分组数据的分布函数,效果十分理想。收入分布函数的拟合是本文所提出的算法之关键,计算结果的准确性直接取决于分布函数的拟合质量。本文将生物学中常用的逻辑期蒂函数稍加变形应用于收入分布函数的拟合取得了理想效果,并给出了计算这例。     

基于能力贫困与权利贫困视角的我国城市贫困原因分析——以甘肃省为例

城市贫困问题已成为中国改革和发展中急需解决的重要问题,治理城市贫困关系到稳定大局,实现“共同富裕”的发展目标,也是全面建设小康社会的必然要求。本文从能力贫困和权利贫困角度出发,结合甘肃省具体情况,对我国城市贫困原因进行了分析,并提出一些建议。