The effectiveness of anti-leakage policies in the European Union: results for Austria

With the third trading period of the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) starting in 2013, the system of allocating emission allowances will significantly change: In contrast to the previous two trading periods, auctioning of the allowances should now be the rule rather than the exception. Accompanying this policy change, concerns over competitiveness of energy intensive, trade exposed sectors as well as over limited environmental effectiveness via the channel of carbon leakage, have regained prominence. In this paper, we thus explore the impacts of potential EU policies to counter losses in international competitiveness and carbon leakage from the perspective of Austria. Based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model, we evaluate three policy options: an input subsidy for carbon allowances (thus reflecting the planned partially free allocation mechanism in the third EU ETS phase), a subsidy for domestic production, and an export rebate based on sectoral CO₂ costs. Our results show that each policy has the potential to support domestic production in exposed sectors relative to a full auctioning scenario and thus increase competitiveness. However, none is imperatively effective at reducing Austria’s net carbon emissions: while the carbon trade balance is improved and hence leakage declines, the tradability of emission permits within the EU ETS allows CO₂ emissions from Austria’s ETS output to increase. A cost benefit analysis indicates that the two policies promoting domestic output and exports are more cost effective than the CO₂ input subsidy.     

Population and lifestyle trend changes in China: implications for environmental quality

Demographic changes have considerable impacts on a country’s long-term growth trajectory through the savings, consumption and labour market channels. Population changes, including ageing, migration and urbanization, as well as lifestyle shifts may affect growth for fast-growing countries like China. Rural population migrating to cities consumes more energy services and produces larger emissions since urban lifestyles are generally more energy- and carbon-intensive. Household structures also keep changing across the majority of Chinese cities. Migration and urbanization together drive China’s energy consumption, CO₂ emissions upwards and environmental quality downwards if the current trend continues over time. It is, thus, necessary for China to draw useful lessons from experiences in other countries by reconciling population development and environmental changes. This study provides insights into the challenge of environmental sustainability, resulting jointly from population and lifestyle changes in China over the period 1978–2012. The empirical analysis generates empirical findings documenting that population changes and consumption behavioural changes contributed significantly to increased carbon emissions over the last three decades. The modelling results are highly relevant for policymakers who seek to adopt new policies to mitigate lifestyle change-driven environmental challenges that China has to cope with in the foreseeable future.     

Abuse of EU Emissions Trading for Tacit Collusion

In this paper, we show that loopholes in EU emissions trading law foster tacit collusion that impacts oligopolistic product markets. The abuses originate from the covert misuse of EU emissions trading institutions, such as pooling or project-based mechanisms. We analyse two types of these loopholes by means of game theoretical methods to show how oligopolistic firms establish output restrictions, even if those firms are price takers on the~permit market (which might actually be the case for the majority of obligated firms in the EU). The identified misuse of emissions trading law increases firms’ profits, decreases the consumers’ surplus and has negative effects on social welfare for specified parameter ranges. Consequently, public authorities should not allow emissions trading’s overall good reputation—based upon its efficient abatement of pollution—to blind them to options in European emissions trading legislation that would eventually restrict competition.      

The environmental effect of car-free housing: A case in Vienna

A case-control study of the car-free model housing project in Vienna was conducted to evaluate whether people living in this settlement have more ‘sustainable lifestyles’ than people living in comparable buildings in Vienna. Another aim was to identify the lifestyle characteristics and household activities which significantly influence the environmental impact of the residents of the car-free housing project and a control group. The control group, referred to as the reference settlement, was chosen from a nearby building complex, with similar characteristics, but without the car-free feature. Household consumption patterns were estimated based on interviews in combination with data from the Austrian consumer expenditure survey and the national accounts. The evaluation of household environmental impacts uses emissions estimates from the Austrian national accounting matrices including environmental accounts and data from life-cycle assessments. Households from the car-free settlement have substantially lower environmental impacts in the categories of ground transportation and energy use; their CO₂ emissions of these two categories are less than 50% of those living in the reference settlement. The households in the car-free settlement have somewhat higher emissions in the categories air transport, nutrition, and ‘other’ consumption, reflecting the higher income per-capita. As a result, the CO₂ emissions are only slightly lower than in the reference settlement, but the emissions intensity is 20% lower. Both household groups have significantly lower environmental impacts than the Austrian average reflecting less car use and cleaner heating energy in Vienna.     

Protecting Ecosystems and Alleviating Poverty with Parks and Reserves: ‘Win-Win’ or Tradeoffs?

National parks and reserves are globally popular approaches to protecting biodiversity and the supply of ecosystem services. Because these protected areas limit agricultural development and exploitation of natural resources, they are frequently opposed in developing nations where reducing poverty is an important social objective. Conservation advocates argue that protected areas can alleviate poverty by supplying ecosystem services, promoting tourism and improving infrastructure. Thus ‘win-win’ scenarios may be possible in which ecosystems and their services are protected and poverty is alleviated. Previous studies (Andam et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105(42):16089–16094 2008; 2010) suggest that Costa Rica’s protected area system reduced deforestation and alleviated poverty. We demonstrate that these environmental and social impacts were spatially heterogeneous. Importantly, the characteristics associated with the most avoided deforestation are the characteristics associated with the least poverty alleviation. In other words, the same characteristics that limited the conservation effectiveness of protected areas may have improved the social welfare impacts of these areas. These results suggest that ‘win-win’ efforts to protect ecosystems and alleviate poverty may be possible when policymakers are satisfied with low levels of each outcome, but tradeoffs exist when more of either outcome is desired.     

Sustainable Development and a Dwindling Carbon Space

Curbing global warming by setting long term maxima for temperature rise or concentrations of greenhouse gases defines spaces within which further emissions of these gases are to remain (referred to here as ‘carbon spaces’). This paper addresses questions related to how to share between countries the carbon space and/or efforts to stay within it, in the perspective of sustainable development; different allocation mechanisms are reviewed, responding to criteria such as ‘responsibility’ for climate change, ‘capability’ to engage in abating it, and ‘potential’ or future contribution. The carbon space remaining at any time will depend on effective mitigation up till that time, and will condense if more stringent maxima are to be set; per capita this space becomes smaller with rising population. Sharing the carbon space in a fair way requires “convergence” of currently widely unequal per capita emissions. If the world is to stay within the carbon space consistent with <2° warming, then developed economies—the wealthiest sources of greenhouse gases should quickly and deeply engage in mitigation. Also, substantial mitigation is to take place in developing countries and that this will require substantial support to developing countries (financially, technologically). Changing development paths can make a major contribution to climate change mitigation; this requires changes in investment, production and consumption patterns. Green New Deals as proposed in the context of a widened response to the current economic crisis could become a first phase of a fundamental transition towards a decarbonised global economy worldwide. Concerns to do with equity as well as sustainability must be incorporated and integrated into coherent transitory strategies.     

Market Structure and the Environmental Implications of Trade Liberalization: Russia's Accession to the World Trade Organization

We investigate the environmental impacts of Russia's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession with a computable general equilibrium model incorporating imperfectly competitive firms, foreign direct investment and endogenous productivity. WTO accession increases CO₂ emissions through technique (?), composition (+) and scale (+) effects. We consider three complementary policies to limit CO₂ emissions: cap and trade, emission intensity standards and energy efficiency standards. With imperfectly competitive firms, gains from WTO accession result with any of these policies. If we assume perfectly competitive market structures, the negative environmental impacts of WTO accession are smaller and no net gains arise when environmental regulation involves energy intensity or efficiency standards.     

Entry Facilitation by Environmental Groups

We consider a model of vertical product differentiation where consumers care about the environmental damage their consumption causes. An environmental group is capable of increasing consumers’ environmental concern via a costly campaign. We show that the prospect of such a campaign can induce entry by a firm that is able to employ a cleaner technology than the one used by the incumbent. We further demonstrate that the subsequent competition can lead to an adverse effect on aggregate pollution, i.e. the decline in average industry pollution per product is offset by the increase in aggregate production.      

The Impact of the EU ETS on Prices,Profits and Emissions in the Power Sector: Simulation Results with the COMPETES EU20 Model

This paper analyses the impact of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on electricity prices, in particular on wholesale power markets across the EU. To study this impact, this paper discusses the major results of a bottom-up modelling analysis of the implications of emissions trading for the performance of the wholesale power market in 20 European countries. The analyses show that a significant part of the costs of (freely allocated) CO₂ emission allowances is passed through to power prices, resulting in higher electricity prices for consumers and additional (‘windfall’) profits for power producers, even in cases of full auctioning. In addition, they show that the ETS-induced increases in power prices depend not only on the level of CO₂ prices but also on the structure of the power market, i.e., the incidence of market power, and the price responsiveness of power demand. Finally, the analyses show that the internalization and pass-through of carbon costs are crucial elements in a policy regime to reduce CO₂ emissions by both changing the mix of power generation technologies and lowering total electricity demand.     

A multi-factor efficiency perspective to the relationships among world GDP, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions

Most of the research articles on climate change study the relationships between economic growth, and, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission or energy consumption separately for analyzing the impacts of economic growth and energy consumption on global carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, the linkages among CO₂ emissions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and energy consumption are studied simultaneously using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The time period considered for the study is 1980-2001. The results show that world in the year 1980 was the most efficient in achieving the highest economic growth, emitting least carbon dioxide for a given level of energy consumption for that year. The efficiency index reduced in the next 8 years, fluctuated with a declining trend for the next 7 years, and began to rise from 1996 till 2001. The model is further extended in this paper for technology forecasting to identify the links between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for achieving projected levels of GDP under two different assumptions on efficiency index. It has been identified using the forecasting model that, when the carbon dioxide emissions are restricted to the levels emitted in the year 1990 and when the efficiency index for the year 2025 is assumed to be at the level registered for the year 1980 (highest value), the non-fossil energy consumption needed to meet the GDP level projected for 2025 will be much smaller (35.46 quadrillion Btu for the reference GDP) than the values actually recorded in the year 1990 (44.59). However, the non-fossil energy consumption in 2025 (118.8) increases much more than the actual recorded in the year 1990 when the efficiency index in 2025 is assumed to be at the level registered for the year 1990.     

Lifestyles, technology and CO2 emissions in China: A regional comparative analysis

With rapid economic development, higher income levels, urbanization and other socio-economic drivers, people's lifestyles in China have changed remarkably over the last 50 years. This paper uses the IPAT model (where I = Impact representing CO₂ emissions, P = Population, A = Affluence, and T = emission intensity) to analyze how these main drivers contributed to the growth of CO₂ emissions over this time period. Affluence or lifestyle change has been variously recognized as one of the key factors contributing to CO₂ emissions. Through comparative analysis of the development of five regions in China, we trace lifestyle changes since the foundation of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949 until 2002. We find that household consumption across the five regions follows similar trajectories, driven by changes in income and the increasing availability of goods and services, although significant differences still exist between and within regions due to differential policies in China and different possibilities for social mobility. There are considerable differences between the southeast and northwest and between urban and rural areas. We also found that technological improvements have not been able to fully compensate for the increase of emissions due to population growth and increasing wealth, which is also in line with results from other studies. Finally, this paper emphasizes that developing countries such as China, which is home to 22% of the world population and a growing middle class, and which is on a fast track to modernization, need to ensure that people's lifestyles are changing towards more sustainable ways of living. China has been investing heavily in infrastructure and thus creating the emissions of tomorrow. Thus investing, for example, in public transport and low energy building today will help reduce emissions in the future and will support more sustainable lifestyles.     

How do consumers switch between close substitutes when price variation is small? The case of cigarette types

Past empirical studies report ambiguous results regarding the magnitude and significance of substitution between different types of smoking tobacco. Since all types of tobacco contain nicotine this is quite surprising. Using a 20-year rotating panel data set of Norwegian households and a multinomial logit model, we find evidence that consumers switch between tobacco types: first, estimated price effects on choice probabilities have mostly expected signs, albeit their statistical significance vary across different metrics, second, household characteristics affect tobacco composition significantly. These findings suggest that consumers’ choices are ‘locked’ when the relative price variation is small, as has been the case in most of the data period, but that larger changes could induce large-scale switching between tobacco types. Our conjecture is that there is a latent potential for switching, which will become manifest if prices change sufficiently. Similar considerations are likely to have relevance for other close substitutes.     

Climate policy targets in emerging and industrialized economies: the influence of technological differences, environmental preferences and propensity to save

Although emerging economies claim that industrialized countries need to reduce their carbon emissions first, stabilization of the future global climate system requires immediate action by all countries. In a stylized two-country intertemporal general equilibrium model, we derive welfare maximizing emission caps in emerging and industrialized countries, taking account of country differences in technology, environmental preferences and propensity to save. Simultaneous target setting is compared to a sequential one in which the industrialized country commits itself to binding targets first. In the latter case, when the industrialized economy has stronger environmental preferences and a lower relative pollution production share, the industrialized economy can increase its joint economic and environmental welfare by setting a laxer target. On the other hand, when the emerging economy has considerably higher environmental preferences, our results suggest that the industrialized economy will choose a more restrictive target in a sequential setting than in a simultaneous one, contrary to first thought that a first mover is always pursuing a ‘symbolic’ policy with a lax target.     

A Structure Decomposition Analysis of China’s Production-Source CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emission: 1992–2002

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the relative impacts of various factors on CO₂ emissions from production of goods and services in China during two consecutive periods of 1992–1997 and 1997–2002. Results show that, on the positive side, level of final demand for goods and services was the main reason for the increase of production-source CO₂ emission, while structure of net export has similar positive effect during the first period of 1992–1997. On the negative side, technology factors remains as the main factors reducing emissions. The level of net export played some role in the first period, but the effects were seen in the second period from energy intensity, fuel mix and input mix. The results suggest that economic structure be focused as an important factor for CO₂ emission reduction, with construction and transport as two key industries to lower carbon emission.     

Climate Policy,Learning, and Technology Adoption in Small Countries

A significant reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions requires international cooperation in emission abatement as well as individual countries’ investment in the adoption of abatement technology. The existing literature on climate policy pays insufficient attention to small countries, which account for a substantial proportion of global emission. In this study, we investigate how climate policy and learning about climate damage affect investment in abatement technology in small countries. We consider three alternative climate policy instruments: emission standards, harmonized taxes and auctioned permits. We say that learning is feasible if an international environmental agreement (IEA) is formed after the resolution of uncertainty about climate damage. We find that, either with learning and quadratic abatement costs or without learning, harmonized taxes outperform emission standards and auctioned permits in terms of investment efficiency. Without learning, a large cost of nonparticipation (that a country incurs) in the IEA can be beneficial to the country. Whether learning improves investment efficiency depends on the size of this nonparticipation cost.     

Effluent taxes,market structure,and the rate and direction of endogenous technological change

This paper studies the effects of effluent taxes on firms’ allocation of resources to cost-reducing and emission-reducing R&D, and on entrepreneurs’ decisions to develop new goods and enter the market. A tax set at an exogenous rate that does not depend on the state of technology reduces growth, the level of consumption of each good, and raises the number of firms. The induced increase in the variety of goods is a benefit not considered in previous analyses. In terms of environmental benefits, the tax induces a positive rate of pollution abatement that offsets the “dirty” side of economic growth. A tax set at an endogenous rate that holds constant the tax burden per unit of output, in contrast, has ambiguous effects on growth, the scale of activity of each firm and the number of firms. Besides being novel, the potential positive growth effect of this type of effluent tax is precisely what makes this instrument effective for welfare-maximizing purposes. The socially optimal policy, in fact, requires the tax burden per unit of output to equal the marginal rate of substitution between the growth rate of consumption and abatement. Moreover, a tax/subsidy on entry is needed, depending on whether the contribution of product variety to pollution dominates consumers’ love of variety.      

Global environment and dynamic games of environmental policy in an international duopoly

This paper examines a differential game model of international pollution control in which polluting oligopolists compete in a third country market. Two alternative policy instruments (emission taxes and command-and-control regulations) are considered. A tougher emission policy in the home country enhances the foreign firm’s competitiveness because of the static “rent-shifting” effect. The foreign country also enjoys a future improvement of the global environmental quality by “free riding” on the home country’s emission reduction effort. Because of these strategic effects, the levels of environmental policy determined in the noncooperative policy game are distorted away from the socially optimal level. Moreover, the emission tax game produces a more distortionary outcome than that in the command-and-control game; it generates more pollution and lower welfare.      

Routines, genes and program-based behavior

It is argued that the ‘routines as genes’ and the ‘routines as skills’ analogies are misleading in several respects. Neither genes, nor skills, nor routines program behavior, if this is taken to involve, first, that they do so in a way that excludes conscious, deliberate choice and, second, that they determine behavior. On a proper understanding of ‘gene’, ‘skill’ and ‘routine’, conscious, deliberate choice is not ruled out when genes, skills or routines are operating. Once we shift from analogy to ontology, genes and skills appear as basic constituents of routines. Routines cannot exist unless specific genes and skills are in place in the individuals involved in the operation of the routines. Both genes and skills can be said to act unconsciously as ‘If ..., then ...’ programs. Even complete knowledge of genes and skills of the individuals involved would fall far short of predicting individual and firm behavior, however. What would still be missing, it is argued, is knowledge about organization, the specific ways in which genes, skills and individuals are connected with one another, and knowledge of context-dependence, what environmental stimuli activate specific chains of genes, skills and individuals.

Environmentally important paths,linkages and key sectors in the Australian economy

Traditional work on linkages, fields of influence and structural paths is extended to include environmental and natural resource parameters. The theoretical basis for the generalisation of all three concepts is presented. Recent empirical data on energy consumption, land disturbance, water use and emissions of greenhouse gases NO_x and SO₂, is used to reveal the interdependence of industries in the Australian economy in terms of environmental pressure and resource depletion. Grazing industries, electricity generation, metals, chemicals, textiles, meat and dairy products, wholesale and retail, non-residential building and hospitality exhibit above-average linkages. A considerable part of environmental and resource pressure is exerted along paths for providing exports.     

A decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions in the United States

This article decomposes the growth in US CO₂ emissions by state. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, we account for CO₂ emissions change in each state between 1990 and 2004. The change is decomposed into five effects: (a) emissions per unit of fossil fuel; (b) share of fossil fuel in total energy consumption; (c) energy intensity; (d) gross state product per capita and (e) population. Results show that for the past 15 years gains in the efficiency of energy use in the economy, the lowering share of fossil fuels in total energy consumption and lowering of emissions intensity of fuels all contributed to offsetting the effect of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the population growth in carbon emission across the US.