Assessing the link between price and financial stability

This paper aims at investigating first, the (possibly time-varying) empirical relationship between price and financial stability, and second, the effects of some macro and policy variables on this relationship in the United States and the Eurozone. Three empirical methods are used to examine the relevance of A.J. Schwartz's “conventional wisdom” that price stability would yield financial stability. Using simple correlations and VAR and Dynamic Conditional Correlations, we reject the hypotheses that price stability is positively correlated with financial stability and that the correlation is stable over time. The latter result and the analysis of the determinants of the link between price stability and financial stability cast some doubt on the appropriateness of the “leaning against the wind” monetary policy approach.     

The nexus between financial integration and real economy: Solow-growth model concept

This paper aims to investigate the nexus between financial integration and the real economy in ASEAN + 3 economies based on the concept of Solow-Growth Model. The equity indices as a proxy for financial markets are collected from each ASEAN + 3 members and are segmented between two periods; before and after the financial cooperation agreement period. The finding presents several outcomes; 1) no cointegration nexus is found in the system during the pre-agreement periods; 2) the markets are found cointegrated during the post-agreement period, 3) financial integration is found to influence the real sectors of ASEAN + 3 economies. Finally, this study offers policy implications to improve financial integration for stabilizing the real economy.     

Managing price and financial stability objectives in inflation targeting economies in Asia and the Pacific

Many central banks have adopted explicit objectives for financial stability, raising the possibility of trade-offs between price and financial stability objectives. Based on structural vector autoregressions that incorporate both monetary and macroprudential policy shocks for four inflation targeting economies in Asia and the Pacific, we analyse the role of each policy shock in explaining deviations from the other policy’s objective, by applying historical decompositions. The macroprudential measures used in the study affect credit extended to the private sector. We find that there are periods when macroprudential policy shocks have contributed to pushing inflation away from the central bank’s inflation target and when monetary policy shocks have contributed to buoyant credit, suggesting that there have been short-term trade-offs between price and financial stability objectives. However, we also find periods when macroprudential policy shocks helped stabilise inflation and monetary policy shocks contributed to financial stability.     

对实体经济与虚拟资产回报率关系的研究综述

实体经济和虚拟资产之间回报率关系具有深刻的经济学含义和政策意义。对于实体经济和虚拟资产回报率之间的显著偏离,研究认为,虚拟资产的膨胀根植于实体经济的周期性萧条。然而,对虚拟资产价值的信心仍是建立在其随时可以转换为物质财富基础之上的。货币政策应该充分关注相关的资产价格,应努力研究金融发展和经济回报率偏离的关键因素。     

The relative influence of competitive intensity and business strategy on the relationship between financial leverage and performance

This study empirically investigates the effects of competitive intensity and business strategy on the relationship between financial leverage and the performance of firms. Based on a sample of US manufacturing firms, this study confirms the hypothesis that the cost of debt is higher for product differentiation firms than cost leadership firms. Furthermore, the results indicate that competitive intensity has a negative effect on the leverage-performance relationship, suggesting that competition acts as a substitute for debt in limiting manager's opportunistic behavior. These findings reinforce the need to consider moderating factors such as strategic choice and the environment in which a firm operates when investigating the effects of leverage on performance.     

The Effect of Business and Financial Market Cycles on Credit Ratings: Evidence from the Last Two Decades

We analyze the effect of business and financial market cycles on credit ratings using a sample of firms from the Russell 3000 index that are rated by Standard and Poor's over the period 1986–2012. We also examine investor reaction to credit rating actions in different stages of business and financial market cycles. We document that credit rating agencies are influenced by business and financial market cycles; they assign lower credit ratings during downturns of business and financial market cycles and higher ratings during upturns. Our study is the first to find strong evidence of pro‐cyclicality in credit ratings using a long window. We also document stronger investor reaction to negative credit rating actions during downturns. Our results confirm theoretical predictions and inform regulators.     

Financial distress, bankruptcy law and the business cycle

This paper explores the business cycle implications of financial distress and bankruptcy law. We find that due to the presence of financial imperfections the effect of liquidations on the price of capital goods can generate endogenous fluctuations. We show that a law reform that ‘softens’ bankruptcy law may increase the amplitude of the cycle in the long run. In contrast, a policy of bailing out businesses during the bust or actively managing the interest rate across the cycle could stabilize the economy in the long run. A comprehensive welfare analysis of these policies is provided as well.      

Economic growth and the stability and efficiency of the financial sector

It has been claimed that the ability of emerging markets to adopt optimal stabilization policies is hampered by a number of factors. Among them, it has been recently emphasized the role of financial instability, inefficiencies, and financial market imperfections. It is claimed here that the current financial regulatory paradigm, embodied in Basel II, may improve financial stability but reinforces cyclicality. Therefore, countries should emphasize financial efficiency since it would lead to enhanced financial stability, without increasing cyclicality.     

Bridging DSGE models and the raw data

A method to estimate DSGE models using the raw data is proposed. The approach links the observables to the model counterparts via a flexible specification which does not require the model-based component to be located solely at business cycle frequencies, allows the non-model-based component to take various time series patterns, and permits certain types of model misspecification. Applying standard data transformations induces biases in structural estimates and distortions in the policy conclusions. The proposed approach recovers important model-based features in selected experimental designs. Two widely discussed issues are used to illustrate its practical use.     

Complexity and financial stability in a large random economy

I study the limit of a large random economy, in the ideal case of perfect competition, where full information is available to all market participants, and where a set of consumers invests in financial instruments engineered by banks in order to optimize their future consumption. This provides a picture of how unregulated financial innovation pushes an economy towards the ideal limit of complete markets. Hedging new products with existing products allows financial institutions to reduce the associated risk and hence the risk premium. This has the expected consequence that markets, under such ideal conditions, converge to market completeness as the repertoire of financial instruments expands. As markets approach completeness, however, two ‘unintended consequences’ also arise: (i) equilibrium portfolios develop a marked susceptibility to idiosyncratic shocks and/or parameter uncertainty and (ii) hedging engenders divergent trading volumes in the interbank market. Combining these suggests an inverse relation between financial stability and the size of the financial sector, which can be quantified within the present framework. These results suggest that even under perfect competition and symmetric information, the pursuit of market efficiency—in terms of completeness—may erode financial stability. The proliferation of financial instruments exacerbates the effects of market imperfections and, in order to prevent an escalation of perverse effects, markets may require institutional structures that become more and more substantial as their complexity expands.     

Entrepreneurial risk aversion,net worth effects and real fluctuations

This paper examines the combined effect of asymmetric information and private entrepreneurial risk aversion on investment decisions. The standard optimal debt contract becomes modified by the introduction of insurance and a risk premium that entrepreneurs demand due to the uncertainty of their investment returns: the private equity premium. In general equilibrium, the private equity premium may become a mechanism that magnifies the effects of shocks. A structural estimation of the model's parameters using Chilean and U.S. data shows that the entrepreneurial risk aversion assumption has more empirical relevance in an economy where smaller privately-held businesses are relatively more prevalent than where the corporate sector predominates, like the U.S.     

Reporting matters: the real effects of financial reporting on investing and financing decisions

In this paper, I provide an overview of the research on the real effects of financial reporting on investing and financing decisions made by firms. Accounting can improve investment efficiency and affect nearly every aspect of the financing decision by reducing information asymmetry and improving monitoring. However, limitations in the financial reporting system, specifically distinguishing liabilities from equity and determining control for consolidations, result in opportunities to structure transactions to achieve certain financial reporting outcomes. A recent new stream of research documents a link between accounting and macroeconomic indicators, providing evidence that accounting predicts revisions in these indicators. An interesting avenue for future research could be to investigate the link between accounting, investing and financing, and macroeconomic performance.     

中国金融发展与产业结构升级关系的实证研究

本文在国内外研究成果的基础上,针对中国的金融发展与产业结构升级的关系问题,系统分析金融发展与产业结构转变的内在联系,采用中国1978～2006年反映金融发展和产业结构升级的指标数据,利用非平稳时间序列分析方法进行定量描述。结果表明,产业结构升级指标和金融发展指标相互之间存在着长期均衡关系,金融相关率和金融市场化率对非农产业产值比重的提高有正向促进作用,并且金融相关率对产业结构升级的影响要强于金融相关率指标。中国产业结构的变化具有自身的惯性,中国的产业结构升级与金融发展的长短期关系是不一致的。产业结构升级和金融市场化比率之间存在双向的因果关系,而产业结构升级与金融相关比率以及金融相关比率和金融市场化比率之间只有单向的因果关系。     

推进"长三角"金融协调发展与建设上海国际金融中心的有效互动

建设上海国际金融中心是一项国家战略,而推动"长三角"地区协调发展则是国家区域发展总体战略的重要组成部分。同样是作为重要的国家经济金融发展战略,如何把二者有机地结合起来,形成"长三角"经济金融协调发展和上海国际金融中心建设良性互动的局面,是本文重点研究和思考的问题。作者从"长三角"金融协调发展现状、"长三角"地区协调发展与上海国际金融中心建设作为两项国家战略的结合、"长三角"金融协调发展与上海国际金融中心建设有效互动的重要意义、推进"长三角"金融协调发展的重要突破口等方面做了深入阐述。     

Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off

This paper investigates the nexus between monetary stability and financial stability. We examine, in the experience of EMU between 1994 and 2008, first, the response of the term structure of interest rates, share prices, exchange rates, property price inflation and the deposit–loan ratio of the banking sector (our proxies for financial stability) to changes in the consumer price level and ECB policy rate (our proxies for monetary stability); second, whether and to what extent lower inflation has caused share price stability and how ECB policy rate has reacted to inflation. Using a sign-restriction-based VAR approach, we find that there is a pro-cyclical relationship between monetary and financial stability in the long-run. With a positive inflation shock, we find on average a 2% estimated decline in share prices. This suggests that the interest rate instrument used for inflation targeting is conducive to financial stability.     

The nexus of macroprudential supervision,monetary policy,and financial stability

I discuss changes to bank supervision and regulation since the financial crisis. Microprudential supervision promotes the safety and soundness of individual institutions, while macroprudential supervision focuses on emerging risks to financial system stability. I highlight tools for implementing this macroprudential approach to promoting financial stability, and discuss the interactions and proper relationship between monetary policy and financial stability. While macroprudential tools should be the first line of defense against emerging financial imbalances, in cases where those tools proved to be inadequate to limit risks to financial stability, monetary policy should be considered as a possible defense.     

Monetary policy and financial stability in a banking economy: Transmission mechanism and policy tradeoffs

The 2008 global financial crisis demonstrated that monetary policy and financial stability policy are more highly interrelated than previously thought. This paper analyzes the interactions between these policies using a non-linear overlapping-generations model with financial frictions in the form of banking financial intermediation. The paper embeds negative externalities due to contagion effects in physical investments which creates the need for financial stability policy. We show how the monetary policy transmission mechanism depends on financial stability policy tools as well as on regulatory and institutional constraints.We find policy tradeoffs in trying to accomplish both monetary and financial stability targets. The central bank must take these tradeoffs into account when selecting the tools in its policy toolbox. Another important finding is the interchangeability of price stability and financial stability policy tools.     

中国金融发展与城市化关系的区域差异

本文运用面板单位根检验、协整检验以及误差修正模型等计量方法,对中国1986-2005年东、中、西部地区的金融发展与城市化的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明中国金融发展与城市化二者之间的关系呈现出明显的区域差异性:长期而言,东、中、西部地区金融发展都不是城市化的原因,也就是说三大地区金融发展都没有促进城市化进程。东、中部地区金融发展与城市化之间具有城市化引导金融发展的单向长期因果关系;东部地区金融发展与经济增长之间还具有城市化引导金融发展的短期因果关系。据此,本文最后提出了简短的对策与建议。     

Credit frictions and the comovement between durable and non-durable consumption

Frictions in lending between households have been proposed as a solution to the difficulties new-Keynesian models have in predicting a decline in both durable and non-durable consumption following a monetary tightening. By revisiting a standard new-Keynesian framework with collateral constraints, it is shown that the presence of such credit frictions in fact makes it more difficult to generate the joint decline. The intuitive reasons behind this result are provided, which should be helpful in developing models that are more successful in generating a positive comovement between durables and non-durables.