财政分权有利于贫困减少吗?——来自分税制改革后的省际证据

本文从公共支出效率和公共支出结构两个角度,论述了财政分权和贫困减少之间的理论联系。一方面,财政分权通过增加亲贫式支出的配置效率来实现减贫目标;另一方面,财政分权加剧了地方政府间的竞争程度,而地区竞争会扭曲公共支出结构,阻碍减贫目标的实现。利用我国分税制改革后的省际数据发现:就北京、上海和天津而言,财政分权程度的增加恶化了贫困状况;而对于其他省份,财政分权程度的增加则有利于缓解贫困。     

Global estimates of growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle: evidence from World Bank’s classification countries

This study extended the concept of ‘growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle’ by using the principle component approach which allows us to composite different poverty and inequality indicators into one single index that contains most of the useful information from the original dataset. Using the idea of GIP triangle, this study examines the long-run relationship among weighted poverty index (which comprises headcount ratio, poverty gap and squared poverty gap); weighted inequality index (i.e., Watts Index, Gini Index and MLD Index) and average monthly per capita income in the designated 138 countries according to World Bank’s classification over a period of 2005–2010. The data set mainly contain countries’ unit record household survey at least one which is conducted between the countries during the sample period. The regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty reflects that income inequality increases poverty while economic growth decreases poverty. It indicates that the impact of inequality in increasing poverty is a somewhat greater than that of growth in average income in reducing overall poverty in a sample countries. The other regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and poverty on income inequality showed that the poverty itself is also likely to be a barrier for poverty reduction; and inequality seems to predict lower future growth rates. The final regression model depicting the impact of poverty and income inequality on mean income of the household suggests that poverty itself reduces mean income of the household while income inequality increases economic growth. The results are interesting and simply suggest that whenever social institutions malfunction, the incidence of damage would usually be distributed unevenly over the society’s members.     

Aggregate Poverty Measures

The way poverty is measured is important for an understanding of what has happened to poverty as well as for anti-poverty policy evaluation. Sen's (1976) pathfinding work has motivated many researchers to focus on the way poverty should be measured. A poverty measure, argued by Sen, should satisfy certain properties or axioms and the desirability of a poverty measure should be evaluated by these axioms. During the last two decades, many researchers have adopted the axiomatic approach pioneered by Sen to propose additional axioms and develop alternative poverty measures. The objective of this survey is to provide a clarification on the extensive literature of aggregate poverty measures. In this survey, we first examine the desirability of each axiom, the properties of each poverty measure, and the interrelationships among axioms. The desirability of an axiom cannot be evaluated in isolation, and some combination of axioms may make it impossible to devise a satisfactory poverty measure; some axioms can be implied by other axioms combined and so are not independent; some others are ad hoc and are disqualified as axioms for poverty measurement. Based on the interactions among axioms, we identify the ‘core’ axioms which together have a strong implication on the functional form of a poverty measure. We then review poverty measures that have appeared in the literature, evaluating the interrelationships among different measures, and examining the properties of each measure. The axioms each measure satisfies/violates are also summarized in a tabular form. Several ‘good’ poverty measures, which have not been documented by previous surveys, are also included.     

Multivariate-based Granger causality between financial deepening and poverty: the case of Pakistan

This paper deals with the empirical investigation of causal relationship between financial deepening, economic growth and poverty reduction using quarter frequency data in case of Pakistan over the period of 1972–2011. We applied the autoregressive distributed lag model bounds testing approach by incorporating structural breaks stemming in the series. The order of integration of the variables is examined by applying structural break unit root test. Our empirical exercise indicated that the long run relationship between financial deepening, economic growth and poverty reduction exists in case of Pakistan. The causality analysis implied that causality results are sensitive with the use of proxy for poverty reduction.     

Welfare Spending and Poverty: Cutting Back Produces More Poverty, Not Less

The "New Consensus " on welfare expresses the idea that the major problem in social welfare is dependency , not poverty Much of the evidence for this perspective has come from trend line data indicating that over time poverty did not evaporate in the face of increases in social welfare spending Using various measures of the "dependent" poor, the empirical analysis presented suggests that reducing welfare expenditures relative to need does not produce less poverty and dependency     

Extending the Resource‐Based Approach to Livelihoods: An Urban Application to Turkish Gecekondu Households

This article critically examines the existing conceptualizations of and explanations for the socioeconomic behaviour of poor households in order to lay the foundations of a new model designed to extend the existing resource‐based approach to livelihoods. The proposed model groups ‘household responses to poverty’ into four key types: income generation, income allocation, consumption and investment. In explaining household responses and their poverty outcomes, it focuses on the role of different resources beyond income (e.g. social capital), along with the wider structural forces and household characteristics that influence the availability and benefit delivery capacity of these resources. The new model is shown to provide a theoretically more sophisticated framework with greater explanatory power and empirical applicability.     

中国多维度益贫式增长的测度及其潜在来源分解研究

本文构建多维度益贫式增长(Pro-Poor Growth)度量方法,对中国是否实现多维度益贫式增长进行实证度量,将益贫式增长的潜在来源分解为经济增长、社会收入初次分配和再分配三部分,并将促进多维度益贫式增长的政策划分为促进社会收入再分配和初次分配政策。研究表明,1981~2005年中国在部分年份实现了收入维度益贫式增长;而在教育、医疗以及综合福利维度未实现益贫式增长。影响因素不是社会收入再分配和收入增长,而是社会收入初次分配。教育人力资本、社会保障对益贫式增长有一定影响但不显著。     

Institutional versus non-institutional credit to agricultural households in India: Evidence on impact from a national farmers’ survey

A goal of agricultural policy in India has been to reduce farmers’ dependence on informal credit. To that end, recent initiatives are focused explicitly on rural areas and have a positive impact on the flow of agricultural credit. Despite the significance of the above initiatives in enhancing the flow of institutional credit to agriculture, the links between institutional credit and net farm income and consumption expenditures in India are not very well documented. Using large, national farm household level data and IV 2SLS estimation methods, we investigate the role of institutional farm credit on farm income and farm household consumption expenditures. Findings show that, in India, formal credit does indeed play a critical role in increasing both net farm income and per capita monthly household expenditures of Indian farm families. Finally, we find that, in the presence of formal credit, social safety net programs like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) may have unintended consequences. In particular, MGNREGA reduces both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures. On the other hand, in the presence of formal credit, the Public Distribution System may increase both net farm income and per capita monthly household consumption expenditures.     

DATA GAPS,DATA INCOMPARABILITY,AND DATA IMPUTATION: A REVIEW OF POVERTY MEASUREMENT METHODS FOR DATA‐SCARCE ENVIRONMENTS

Questions that often come up in contexts where household consumption data are unavailable or missing include: what are the best existing methods to obtain poverty estimates at a single snapshot in time? and over time? and what are the best available methods to study poverty dynamics? A variety of different techniques have been developed to tackle these questions, but unfortunately, they are presented in different forms and lack unified terminology. We offer a review of poverty imputation methods that address contexts ranging from completely missing and partially missing consumption data in cross‐sectional household surveys, to missing panel household data. We present the various existing methods under a common framework, with pedagogical discussion on their intuition. Empirical illustrations are provided using several rounds of household survey data from Vietnam. Furthermore, we also offer a practical guide with detailed instructions on computer programs that can be used to implement the reviewed techniques.     

The evolving role of agricultural technology indicators and economic growth in rural poverty: has the ideas machine broken down?

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of technical progress in agriculture on changes in rural poverty in Pakistan by using annual data from 1975–2011. Data is analyzed by the set of sophisticated econometric techniques i.e., cointegration theory, Granger causality test and variance decomposition, etc. The results reveal that agricultural technology indicators act as an important driver to alleviate rural poverty in Pakistan. Granger causality test indicate that causality runs from technological indicators to rural poverty but not vice versa. However, agricultural irrigated land and industry value added, both does not Granger cause rural poverty, which holds neutrality hypothesis between the variables. Variance decomposition analysis shows that among all the technological indicators, agricultural machinery in form of tractors have exerts the largest contribution to changes in rural poverty in Pakistan. The study concludes that agricultural technology indicators are closely associated with economic growth and rural poverty in Pakistan. Technology in Pakistan has a low pace but still old technology continuously contributed towards poverty reduction. The question whether idea machine is broken down or not? Still need further exploration.     

Distribution-sensitivity of rank-dependent poverty measures

We propose a criterion to rank poverty measures on the basis of distribution-sensitivity. The criterion compares reactions to ‘lossy’ transfers among the poor. We focus on the class of rank-dependent poverty measures and provide distribution-sensitivity rankings of the poverty gap ratio, the first and second Sen measures, the Thon measure, the Shorrocks measure, and the Thon, Kakwani and S-Gini classes of measures. Moreover, we discuss the relationship between the proposed criterion and two alternative distribution-sensitivity criteria based on the Arrow–Pratt theory of risk aversion. Finally, we provide an empirically tractable necessary and sufficient condition for unanimous poverty rankings by all continuous and replication invariant rank-dependent poverty measures that exhibit a predetermined minimum degree of distribution-sensitivity.     

Is Child Work Necessary?*

This article investigates the hypothesis that child labour is compelled by poverty. It shows that a testable implication of this hypothesis is that the wage elasticity of child labour supply is negative. Using a large household survey for rural Pakistan, labour supply models for boys and girls in wage work are estimated. Conditioning on non-labour income and a range of demographic variables, the article finds a negative wage elasticity for boys and an elasticity that is insignificantly different from zero for girls. Thus, while boys appear to work on account of poverty compulsions, the evidence for girls is ambiguous.     

Income mobility in Russia (2000–2005)

Using the data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), this paper investigates income mobility in Russia during the period of rapid economic growth (2000–2005). Employing a broad set of mobility indices, we show that there is much mobility in household incomes from one year to the next and over longer periods in Russia. Both relative and absolute mobility in Russia are significantly higher than in Western countries. We demonstrate that income growth in Russia was strongly pro-poor in 2000–2005. Incomes of the relatively poor were growing faster than incomes of the relatively rich. However, this inequality-reducing effect was almost exactly offset by changes in the relative positions of individuals and the overall reduction in cross-sectional inequality was merely modest.     

Poverty Dynamics of Households in Rural China

The objective of our study is to identify patterns and causes of households' transitions into and out of poverty using the long household panel data on rural China in 1989–2009. We propose a discrete‐time multi‐spell duration model that not only corrects for unobserved heterogeneity, but also addresses the endogeneity due to dynamic selection associated with household's livelihood strategies. The household choosing farming or out‐migration as a main livelihood strategy was more likely to escape from persistent poverty than those taking local non‐agricultural employment. The present study emphasizes the central role of agriculture in helping the chronically poor escape from poverty.     

Strategic interaction and dynamics under endogenous time preference

This paper presents a strategic growth model with endogenous time preference. Due to the potential lack of concavity and the differentiability of the value functions associated with each agent’s problem, we employ the theory of monotone comparative statics and supermodular games based on order and monotonicity properties on lattices. In particular, we provide the sufficient conditions of supermodularity for dynamic games with open-loop strategies based on two fundamental elements: the ability to order elements in the strategy space of the agents and the strategic complementarity which implies upward sloping best responses. The supermodular game structure of the model lets us provide the existence and the monotonicity results on the greatest and the least equilibria. We sharpen these results by showing the differentiability of the value function and the uniqueness of the best response correspondences almost everywhere and show that the stationary state Nash equilibria tend to be symmetric. Finally, we numerically analyze to what extent the strategic complementarity inherent in agents’ strategies can alter the convergence results that could have emerged under a single agent optimal growth model. In particular, we show that the initially rich can pull the poor out of the poverty trap even when sustaining a higher level of steady state capital stock for itself.     

REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND ITS IMPACTS ON GROWTH, POVERTY AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION: THE CASE OF VIETNAM

Trade liberalization and regional economic integration have recently accelerated in East Asia, where several free trade areas have been established or are under negotiation. Vietnam, after acquiring Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) membership in 1995, has signed a bilateral trade package with the United States and participated in the China-ASEAN free trade area. This paper attempts to analyze the impact on Vietnam of ongoing regional economic integration, focusing on growth, poverty reduction and income distribution. For this purpose, we have constructed a globally linked Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and made use of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 6.0 and Vietnam's living standards surveys. The simulation analysis shows that the regional economic integration generally has a positive impact. It both enhances welfare and improves income-distribution for Vietnam. Household income and consumption increase, and poor and rural household groups benefit more than urban high income groups.     

Innovation pathways at the Base of the Pyramid: Establishing technological legitimacy through social attributes

Two challenging imperatives we face today are the amelioration of global poverty and reducing environmental impacts such as global climate change. This article discusses these challenges in the ‘Base of the Pyramid’ (BOP), impoverished socio-economic groups from underdeveloped regions that have traditionally been excluded from economic participation. Drawing on the BOP, global value chain and latecomer literature, we propose five innovation pathways for social and environmental improvement within poor communities. We extend Geel’s (2002) new socio-technical landscape framework, Hall et als' (2011) and Hall and Martin’s (2005) framework for innovative uncertainties and Aldrich and Fiol’s (1994) legitimization processes by proposing a ‘hurdles and levers analysis,’ suggesting that in addition to overcoming technological and commercial hurdles, social attributes play a key role in BOP innovation dynamics. Two illustrative cases are presented; an initiative to replace candles and kerosene lanterns with semiconductor white light-emitting-diodes (WLEDs) in various BOP locations; and the development of naturally colored cotton in poor regions of Brazil for sale locally and abroad. We argue that social uncertainties in particular may act as ‘levers’, compensating for initial technological and commercial deficiencies, thus providing technology developers time to improve. The paper concludes with implications for policy and future research.     

Making unilateral trade liberalisation beneficial to the poor

In this paper, we investigate the impacts of unilateral import liberalisation by a representative South Asian developing economy, Nepal, and demonstrate those conditions required to make the impacts ‘pro-poor.’ Applying the Computable General Equilibrium model to Social Accounting Matrix data, we conclude that import liberalisation is growth-enhancing but that, unfortunately, the rich benefit more than do the poor. We envisage a restructured but plausible model economy that requires a transformational period of ten years, and simulate unilateral trade liberalisation but, in the context of a dynamic model. We conclude that improvement in efficiency parameters, reorganisation of investment patterns, along with reallocation of factors of production by both household group and activity type are required to make growth accrued by import liberalisation ‘pro-poor’ in developing economies such as that of Nepal.     

Household Surveys,Consumption, and the Measurement of Poverty

Household surveys are playing an increasingly important role in the measurement of poverty and well-being around the world. The Living Standards Measurement Study, which was begun in the World Bank under the guidance of Graham Pyatt in 1979, has played an important role in this movement. Its surveys are widely used within the Bank to measure consumption-based poverty, and survey data are now the exclusive basis for the global poverty counts. This paper discusses a number of unresolved issues in using consumption-based surveys for measuring well-being, including the choice of a money-metric versus welfare-ratio approach, the collection of suitable price information, the effects of measurement error on estimation, and methods for correcting per capita consumption for the demographic structure of the household.