Discussion of “Forward Versus Trailing Earnings in Equity Valuation”

The focus of this discussion is on the empirical implications of Yee (2004, this issue). Yee's key contribution is the introduction of belief dependency into the model developed in Ohlson (1995), Feltham and Ohlson (1995, 1996), and Ohlson and Zhang (1998). Yee's primary conclusion is that accruals that do not incorporate beliefs about unobservable information lead to contemporaneous accounting data that are not sufficient for valuation but often belief-free accruals can lead to forward earnings that may be valuation sufficient. Yee (2004) provides an alternative theoretical model of the relation between firm value, trailing earnings, and forward earnings. This model may be used (1) to re-interpret the results of numerous empirical studies of the relation between market metrics, trailing earnings, and forward earnings, and (2) as the basis for framing further hypotheses and empirical studies.     

Discussion of “On Accounting-Based Valuation Formulae” and “Expected EPS and EPS Growthas Determinants of Value”

This discussion evaluates the abnormal earnings growth valuation (AEG) Model of Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth and, in similar vein to the Ohlson review paper at this conference, compares the Model to the residual income valuation (RIV) Model that has been the centerpiece of accounting-based valuation in recent years. The discussion begins with a statement of what one looks for in a practical valuation model. The innovations of the AEG Model, well stated by Ohlson, are acknowledged. A comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of the alternative approaches provides some qualification, however, and draws out the utility of a residual income valuation approach.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Modeling dividends,earnings, and book value equity: An empirical investigation of the ohlson valuation dynamics

This study empirically investigates the information dynamics of the Ohlson valuation framework. Single-period lagged linear autoregressive relationships among dividends, earnings, and book values of equity are estimated for a sample of stochastically stationary firms and are found not to support the valuation framework. This study further extends the empirical analysis to a multilagged vector autoregressive linear information system. Consistent with the Ohlson valuation framework,the past time series of all three variables are generally found to be relevant for firm valuation. This study brings into question empirical research utilizing the Ohlson framework that presupposes a single-period lagged information dynamic.     

A note on accounting conservatism in residual income and abnormal earnings growth equity valuation

The impact of conservative accounting on residual income (RI) and abnormal earnings growth (AEG) valuation models is investigated in this note. Limiting the analyses to information dynamics constrained models (the core models in Ohlson, 1995; Ohlson & Juettner-Nauroth, 2005), we find that both models can handle accounting conservatism if the persistence factors of residual income or abnormal earnings growth fulfil certain conditions. In a comparison of permissible time-series specifications, the AEG model can potentially handle more conservatively biased earnings in the first forecast period than the RI model. However, this requires that the growth of the conservative bias in the second forecast period is not too large. In a 0-NPV competitive equilibrium with a constant steady state growth, both models work equally well. Further elaborations indicate that, in the presence of accounting conservatism a reasonable value of the persistence factor of residual income in the RI model should be in the interval between 1.0 and R (where R = 1 + discount rate), whereas the persistence factor of abnormal earnings growth in the AEG model should be close to 1.0. This implies that the persistence factor in the RI model appears to have been understated while the persistence factor in the AEG model appears to have been overstated in previous empirical research.     

When Capital Follows Profitability: Non-linear Residual Income Dynamics

Economic reasoning suggests that capital follows profitability. This study introduces into residual income valuation capital follows profitability investment dynamics whereby capital investments are guided by the profitability of underlying investment opportunities. These investment dynamics predict convex versus linear relations between future and current residual income, with slope and convexity dependent on investment opportunity. We test these predictions against the linear information dynamics (LID) proposed by Ohlson (1995) and Feltham and Ohlson (1996), with supportive results. These findings point the way to further development of links between firm value and the economics of value creation.     

An Ohlson valuation framework for valuing corporate governance: The case of Taiwan

We examine the relation between a firm's market value, financial performance, and corporate governance as a cointegrated system in the Ohlson (1995) valuation framework. Using a comprehensive set of 29 governance measures in 4 categories for Taiwanese firms, we find that governance related to ownership structure and divergence between cash flow rights and control rights are important for a firm's market valuation. In particular, information about shareholdings of board directors and supervisors, shareholdings of controlling family, and voting rights are influential for firm value. Controlling for book value and residual incomes in the model, these governance measures track much of the remaining firm valuation that is unrelated to a firm's financial performance. Our findings provide some insight into the intrinsic value of corporate governance and the types of corporate governance mechanisms that are especially important for firms with similar ownership structure and controls.     

Differences in the valuation of earnings and book value: Regulation effects or industry effects?

This paper uses a valuation framework on a sample of firms from four European countries (France, Germany, Netherlands, and United Kingdom) to examine how income, accruals, and book value of equity are perceived by the respective capital markets. Our model includes adjustments for industry effects and taking into account the linear information dynamics of the accounting variables posited in the Ohlson model. Consistent with previous researchers, we find that both earnings and book value of equity have valuation implications and that there is significant dispersion in the country-specific and industry-specific valuation multiples. However, when using accounting variables to forecast market values we find that industry-specific valuation multiples reduce forecasting error more than country-specific ones.     

Do sustainability disclosure mechanisms reduce market myopia? Evidence from European sustainability companies

Market myopia is a behavioural bias that causes investors to overvalue short-term earnings and undervalue long-term profits. This anomaly should not be compatible with sustainability disclosure mechanisms, the set of tools which firms use for reporting on their sustainable practices, and which contribute towards long-term performance improvements. Our aim is to study whether market myopia, as a symptom of market inefficiency, decreases with the implementation of sustainability disclosure mechanisms. We test for the presence of market myopia in a sample of firms listed on the S&P Europe 350 Index. For this purpose, we propose to use an adaptation of the valuation model for residual income under linear information dynamics developed by Felthan and Ohlson. Using the rating provided by RobecoSAM Sustainability Yearbook, we find market myopia to be less prevalent in companies classified as high sustainability reporters. An association is also found between persistent enforcement of sustainability disclosure mechanisms and a reduction of the market myopia effect.     

Earnings Response Coefficients and Dividend Policy Parameters

In a seminal paper. Ball and Brown (1968) documented a positive statistical association between earnings surprises and stock returns around an earnings announcement. They concluded that accounting earnings conveyed ‘useful’ information to the market. However, the question of how accounting earnings convey useful information is still being understood. Recent work on this topic has found that current accounting earnings aid investors and analysts in predicting future accounting earnings. Few studies, however, have examined the usefulness of current earnings for predicting other value-relevant attributes. A model by Ohlson (1989a) suggests that investors are also interested in the relationship between current earnings and future dividends. Ohlson's model is supported by empirical tests in this paper which show that the relationship between current earnings and future dividends is significant in explaining cross-sectional variation in earnings response coefficients (ERCs). A second result of interest is that information in dividends substitutes for that in accounting earnings. We find that dividend policy parameters reflect information contained in current earnings. These results add new insights on the information revealed through the analysis of ERCs. Consistent with logic presented here, a symmetrically opposite result is found with respect to dividend response coefficients. The informativeness of earnings (dividends) is found to be negatively (positively) related to the information content of dividends.     

Towards an understanding of profitability analysis within the residual income valuation framework

This paper argues that there is a mis-match between formal theoretical accounting valuation models, and practical approaches to profitability analysis and valuation. In particular, none of the linear information models published to date exhibit an obvious role for profitability analysis. For example, in the standard Ohlson model, earnings and book value apparently summarise all the value relevant information available from the firm's financial statements and there is no apparent need for any further investigation of the accounting numbers beyond these specific line items. The purpose of this paper is to attempt to investigate potential analytical links between formal valuation models and practical profitability analysis. Specifically, we attempt to show how key features of practical profitability analysis might be incorporated into formal valuation models. In this respect there are two particular aspects of valuation practice to which the formal models published to date have paid no attention. First, in practice we often see explicit reference made to the demand side (sales), and supply side (costs) of the business. Second, we often see attempts to benchmark the financial ratios of one firm against the corresponding ratios of firms in the same industry. The purpose of this paper is to attempt to explain why such practices make sense in the context of an attempt to model the principal determinants of firm value within a residual income valuation framework.     

The Sophisticated and the Simple: the Profitability of Contrarian Strategies

A variety of variables have been used to form contrarian portfolios, ranging from relatively simple measures, like book‐to‐market, cash flow‐to‐price, earnings‐to‐price and past returns, to more sophisticated measures based on the Ohlson model and residual income model (RIM). This paper investigates whether: (i) contrarian strategies based on RIM perform better or worse than those based on the Ohlson model; (ii) contrarian strategies based on more sophisticated valuation models (e.g. Ohlson and RIM) perform much better than the relatively simpler ranking variables that have been used so extensively in the finance literature. Given that the RIM and Ohlson models require greater information inputs and technical know‐how, and make different implicit assumptions on future abnormal earnings, it is important to ascertain if they offer significantly greater contrarian profits to outweigh the increased costs that they entail. Indeed, our surprising finding is that simple cash flow‐to‐price measures appear to do almost as well as the more sophisticated alternatives. One would have expected the sophisticated models to significantly outperform the simple cash flow to price model for the reasons given by Penman (2007) .     

Valuation Weights,Linear Dynamics and Accounting Conservatism: An Empirical Analysis

Residual income models provide an important theoretical link between equity valuation and financial statement variables. While various researchers have developed models of how accounting policy impacts on the structure of these models, empirical support for these models is at best weak and frequently contradictory. In this paper, we develop an analytical model, which identifies the dependency between valuation weights in residual income models and the associated structure of earnings information dynamics and accounting conservatism. In contrast to many earlier studies, we find strong evidence of conservatism in our reformulation of the linear dynamics. We proceed to test our predictions of the dependency of the weights on two measures of conservatism, the conventional measure of price‐to‐book ratio and the recent measure of a C‐Score index developed by Khan and Watts (2009) and find that the empirical results accord well with our theoretical predictions in the case of the former but not the latter measure.     

RESIDUAL INCOME,REVERSIBILITY AND THE VALUATION OF EQUITY

Using a continuous time reformulation of the Garman & Ohlson (1980) equity valuation model, we show that the linear pricing technologies, which characterize this area of accounting research, are special cases of a more general non-linear pricing relationship. These non-linearities arise from the fact that firms have the option of terminating their production and investment plans, especially if they turn out to be ‘significant’ loss-making ventures. We demonstrate the potential significance of these non-linearities for a parsimonious interpretation of the Ohlson (1995) model based on the assumption that the firm’s residual income stream is generated by the Student distributions of Praetz (1972) and Blattberg & Gonedes (1974). These processes are based on the assumption that the residual income variable is generated by an elastic (or mean reverting) random walk whose increments have a variance that depends on its current instantaneous value. Since several other well-known processes are nested within the Student distributions (e.g. random walk, Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process), they are a very useful set of distributions through which to demonstrate the potential impact of non-linearities on the pricing relationships of this area.     

Accounting Earnings Processes,Inter-temporal Incentives and Their Implications for Valuation

Accounting measures such as levels and changes in residual earnings are widely used for performance evaluation and executive compensation (Healy, 1985). Quite often, these compensation contracts are of the linear form. In a multiperiod agency setting with hidden actions, where the agent's effort influences the random evolution of a general model of residual earnings, we show that linear compensation contracts based on weighted sum of the levels and changes of residual earnings are indeed optimal. We characterize the contract explicitly and show that the weights are determined by the earnings persistence parameter. Residual earnings are known to be important for valuation too (Ohlson, 1995; Easton and Harris, 1991). In our setting, we demonstrate that residual earnings are also sufficient for valuation. This implies that residual earnings can be used to align incentive goals with valuation objectives. In essence, our paper provides the theoretical underpinnings for linear contracts based on residual earnings and their implications for valuation.     

Linear Information Dynamics,Dividend Irrelevance,Corporate Valuation and the Clean Surplus Relationship

This paper adopts the linear information dynamics framework pioneered in Ohlson (1979) and Garman and Ohlson (1980) (and subsequently used in, in particular, Ohlson, 1989, 1995 and Feltham and Ohlson, 1995) for thinking about desirable properties of earnings numbers in the context of the market valuation of firms, where such valuations are fundamentally based on expected future dividends. The first purpose of this paper is to consider the valuation-relevance of clean surplus earnings when there are two distinct components of clean surplus earnings whose evolutions are governed, along with book value and dividends, by a system of linear information dynamics, and dividend irrelevancy holds. The system of linear information dynamics assumed ensures that corporate value is a linear combination of the two components of clean surplus earnings, book value and dividends. One question becomes—under what circumstances are clean surplus earnings (combined with book value and dividends) sufficient for corporate valuation without a knowledge of the breakdown of clean surplus earnings into its separate components? This paper develops the conditions defining these circumstances. At the other extreme, another question can be asked—under what circumstances is one component of clean surplus earnings irrelevant to corporate valuation? This paper identifies some conditions that identify these latter circumstances. The second purpose of the paper is to identify implications of these results for both the traditional arguments about the desirability of measuring earnings on a clean surplus basis and also the more contemporary issues surrounding FRS3. A third purpose is to discuss the implications of the overall analysis for the empirical testing of the relationship between market prices and earnings numbers, and for empirically-justified definitions of maintainable earnings.     

The Relation between Returns and Earnings: Evidence for the UK

This paper presents an empirical study of the explanatory power of annual earnings figures for annual stock returns using UK data. The analysis is performed on a sample of companies, with varying year-ends, over the period 1969–1990. The research exploits Ohlson's recent theoretical contributions to the study of the valuation relevance of accounting information, and it complements a study by Easton and Harris (1991) on US data. Similar to the results of Easton and Harris, the results for the UK provide consistent evidence that both earnings levels and earnings differences have significant explanatory power for security returns. However, unlike Easton and Harris, the evidence from individual year regressions suggests that changes in earnings rather than the level of earnings may be more important in explaining security returns in the UK.     

Book Value,Residual Earnings,and Equilibrium Firm Value with Asymmetric Information

The residual income valuation model (RIM) by Ohlson (1995) and Feltham and Ohlson (1995) assumes that investors are risk-neutral with homogenous beliefs. Thus, the present value of expected dividends represents firm value. The purpose of the present study is to derive a RIM in a market setting of the Kyle (1985) type. Since traders are asymmetrically informed in the Kyle setting, firm value is no longer equivalent to the present value of the firm's expected dividends. In the present model, the informed investor observes a signal about the firm's profitability, which the market maker (who sets the price) is unable to observe. The market maker infers the informed investor's private signal based on the total order flow, which is an informative but noisy signal. The analysis identifies the equilibrium firm value as a linear function of current book value, current residual income, and the aggregate order flow.     

Payout Policy Relevance and Accounting‐based Valuation

DeAngelo and DeAngelo (2006) (D&D) argue ‘payout policy is not irrelevant and investment is not the sole determinant of value, even in frictionless markets’. Consistent with this view, we argue that the concept of a perfect capital market in Miller and Modigliani (1961) (M&M) and Fama and Miller (1972) can be extended to allow for managerial moral hazard if managers are assumed not to participate in securities trading. An updated version of the M&M valuation model is presented and the possibility of managerial free cash flow (FCF) retention through operating expense manipulation and sub‐optimal investment policies is discussed. Our analysis supports D&D's argument that payout policy is relevant and indicates that value relevance of payout depends on the quality of earnings measurement and the optimality of investment policy. Following this, we develop a framework for analyzing valuation and informational roles of payout in accounting‐based valuation models and apply this framework to the Ohlson (1995) and Feltham and Ohlson (1996) models. This analysis shows how these models permit payout valuation relevance due to managerial FCF retention but not payout informational relevance. Finally, we consider how the Feltham and Ohlson (1996) model can be extended to incorporate time variation in expected profitability of capital investment caused by time variation in managerial FCF retention activities and show that this explicitly affects payout value relevance. We conclude that the development of models where payout plays an explicit valuation role due to issues of moral hazard is an important direction for future research.     

A fractional cointegration approach to testing the Ohlson accounting based valuation model

We examine the long-run relationship between market value, book value, and residual income in the Ohlson (Contemp Acc Res 11(2):661–687, 1995) model. In particular, we test if market value is cointegrated with book value and residual income in light of their non-stationary behaviors. We find that cointegration applies to only 51 % of the sample firms, casting doubt that book value and residual income alone are adequate in tracking variations in market value, yet we find that market value is fractional cointegrated with book value and residual income for 89 % of the sample firms. This implies that the long-run relationship follows a slow but mean-reverting process. Our results therefore support the Ohlson model.     

Accounting based valuation: a simultaneous equations model for forecasting earnings to proxy for ‘other information’

This paper develops and tests a simultaneous equations model (SEM) for extending accounting based valuation models used in empirical studies. Rather than using analysts’ forecasts, we derive forecasts of operating income from the SEM to calculate the ‘other information’ variable in the Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:661–687, 1995) model. The SEM forecasts are based on observable data contained in the firms’ reporting, like order backlog, and other publicly available information. The SEM produces more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of operating income compared to simple benchmark models particularly in years around economic changes and instability, like the years 2001 and 2009. Integrating the SEM forecast as ‘other information’ in market value regressions significantly increases the explanatory power compared to simpler versions without or with single information proxies for ‘other information’. Finally, we find that the SEM forecast is able to explain a major portion of the information advantage of analysts relevant for explaining market values.