SEQUENTIAL VOTING WHEN LONG ELECTIONS ARE COSTLY

This paper analyzes sequential voting in binary elections when voters are motivated by a desire both to elect their preferred candidate and to avoid a long and costly election. I find a unique equilibrium in which a voter's action depends both on the intensity of the voter's preferences as well as how well the candidates have done in earlier voting rounds. This equilibrium results in momentum in which voters are more likely to vote for the candidate currently in the lead. Furthermore, the probability a voter votes for a candidate is increasing in the size of the candidate's lead. As a consequence, a candidate is more likely to win the election if the candidate's stronger supporters vote earlier in the election.     

Why rationality may be a consequence of Hume's theory of choice

Facing R. Sugden's criticism of our interpretation, it is shown in this paper that rationality appears as a possible consequence of Hume's theory of choice. We first argue that Sugden's dismissal of the preference relation from the type of rationality through which Hume's theory is apprehended, is highly disputable, from the point of view of both standard choice theory and Hume's theory of passions. Nonetheless, Sugden's criterion of rationality might be restated in Humean terms as a condition of non-revision of preferences in the dynamics of passions. But, since the process of choice that we have described explicitly takes into account the revision of preferences, and shows that, when this last is no longer required, rationality occurs as an outcome of this process, it is not really concerned by Sugden's criticism.     

Property rights and long-run capital

Proprietary capital falling into the public domain inefficiently decreases capital accumulation. As a consequence, the market steady state consumption underperforms the planner's by 4.6%–9.1% in a neoclassical infinitely-lived agents economy with constant returns to scale and standard empirically supported parameters. The results extend robustly to an overlapping generations economy, for which the gap is 10.5% when similarly parametrized. A policy decentralizing, in the latter, the planner's steady state instead consists of (i) subsidizing the rental rate of private capital at its depreciation rate, and (ii) taxing households' negative net position between, on the one hand, firm and depreciated capital ownership, and on the other, borrowing. Under this policy, the necessary tax rate on households' negative net position is smaller the bigger the absolute value of the latter and, hence, the bigger the corresponding monetary real balances held by households.     

Managing the Waters of Baՙth Country: The Politics of Water Scarcity in Syria

The Syrian government and international development agencies commonly present water scarcity as being one of Syria's main development challenges. This paper draws on a set of international reports, written in consultation with Syrian officials, to reveal the politics of this scarcity. I show how water scarcity is constructed and ordered through spatial representations. Rather than accepting the common explanation that scarcity is the result of population pressure, I argue that Syria's water scarcity is a consequence of the ruling Ba?th party's continuous promotion of water-intensive agriculture. This support for the agricultural sector, motivated in part by a desire for food self-sufficiency and growth through an expansion in irrigated agriculture, is linked to the rural roots of the Ba?th party and the influential Peasants Union. In revealing these key national politics, this analysis highlights how geopolitical studies of water in the Middle East must move beyond a focus on inter-state dynamics and pay critical attention to the politics operating around water distribution and use on a range of scalar levels.     

‘I’ve been to Bali too’ (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?

International visitor arrivals to Bali are examined using univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The univariate LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in international visitor arrivals to Bali. However, the panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks applied to a panel of Bali's 11 major source markets reject the null and support the alternative hypothesis of a joint trend-stationary series with transitory shocks. This result suggests that, the effects of the recent terrorist acts on Bali on the growth path of tourist arrivals from major markets are only transitory and that as a consequence Bali's tourism sector is sustainable in the long run.     

Individual utility in a context of asymmetric sensitivity to pleasure and pain: an interpretation of Bentham's felicific calculus

This paper aims at exploring, in a formal way, Bentham's statement that ‘the pleasure of gaining is not equal to the evil of losing’, which belongs to those aspects of the principle of utility left aside by Jevons‘ reconstruction. Consequently, the agent’s preference order will be viewed as depending on his initial situation, and on asymmetric sensitivity to gains and losses, relative to this situation. This leads 1) to discuss the coexistence of multiple preference orders, illustrated by Bentham's analysis of the optimal labour contract; and 2) to introduce true deliberation as a consequence of the gap between positive choice and rival assessments of utility.     

ROBUST MONETARY POLICY UNDER UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CENTRAL BANK PREFERENCES

In this paper, we study the impact of central bank opacity on macroeconomic performances in a new Keynesian framework with model uncertainty using robust control techniques. We identify a new source of central bank opacity, which refers to the lack of information about the central bank's preference for robustness in the sense of Hansen and Sargent . We find closed‐form solutions for the robust control problem, analysing the impact of the lack of transparency about the central bank's preferences for robustness. We show that an increased transparency about the central bank's preference for robustness makes monetary policy respond less aggressively to cost‐push shocks, thus reducing the inflation and output gap variability. As a consequence, inflation and output gap are less volatile than under central bank opacity about its preference for robustness.     

Quantifying South Africa's crude oil import risk: A multi-criteria portfolio model

A major consequence of South Africa's strong economic growth since the democratic dispensation of 1994 is the rapid increase in domestic demand for oil energy. With small amounts of proven oil reserves, the rise in oil demand as an energy source has resulted in South Africa's growing dependence on external sources for its domestic crude oil needs. High oil prices, instability in major oil producing regions and the rise in ‘oil-nationalism’ are major concerns for the security of South Africa's oil supplies. Accordingly, a comprehensive understanding of oil import security risks can serve as a vital guide in formulating any energy policy framework(s) aimed at alleviating the impact of such risks. This study utilises portfolio theory and develops an empirical framework to provide quantitative measures of systematic and specific risks of South Africa's crude oil imports over the period 1994 to 2007. The paper examines the relationship between supply sources diversification and oil energy security risks, and provides an objective evaluation of different import adjustment strategies on South Africa's total crude oil import risks. The results show that a policy of having constant monthly imports from each supply region reduces the specific and systematic risks of the oil import portfolio by an average rate of 71% and 2.9% respectively. Significant reduction in specific risks of South Africa's oil imports is achieved if imports from risky regions (mainly the Middle East) can be diversified to relatively less risky regions of Europe and North America.     

Consumption volatility and income persistence in the permanent income model

Deaton's “excess smoothness” question can be reformulated by focusing attention on total income rather than labour income: the permanent income theory predicts that the relative volatility of consumption is equal to total income persistence, a fact that is contradicted by empirical evidence. This formulation is more general than the original one in that it is independent of the value of the interest rate, the univariate dynamics of labour income and the information set of the representative consumer. When properly formulated, the excess smoothness problem cannot be solved within Quah's superior information model; as a consequence, the interest of alternative solutions such as aggregation models is increased.     

Technological progress,structural change and productivity growth: a comment

In a recent article, Fagerberg [Struct. Change Econ. Dyn. 11 (2000) 393] finds changes in the employment share of the electrical machinery industry to positively impact the manufacturing sector productivity growth. Fagerberg's approach has some methodological drawbacks, however. This note seeks to complement Fagerberg's analysis by estimating the impact of the employment share of technologically progressive industries using a more adequate methodology. Fagerberg's claim that the share of the ‘electronics’ industry positively affects manufacturing is confirmed. However, the size of the impact, and as a consequence the extent of spill-overs, is found to be much smaller than estimated by Fagerberg.     

The impact of process innovations on firm's productivity growth: the case of Spain

The main aim of this paper is to investigate about the effect that a measure of the process innovation performance of a firm has on its labour productivity growth. This analysis is mainly a consequence of two considerations. The first one results from a clear differentiation of the role that product and process innovations have on a firm's performance. The second one is to assume that the knowledge capital of a firm is mainly composed by its successful research. The study demonstrates that process innovation has a positive and significant effect on firm's productivity growth. Moreover, this result is robust under a wide range of alternative specifications and, in any case, the variable behaves much better than R&D intensity. Following previous research, the detected quadratic relationship between vertical product differentiation and process innovation performance leads to the existence of some firms for which there exist a trade–off between quality and productivity.     

Germany in crisis: the unification challenge,macroeconomic policy shocks and traditions,and EMU

Conventional wisdom blames Germany's ongoing economic and fiscal crisis on the unification shock of the early 1990s and structural problems in labour markets. Challenging this view, this paper offers a fresh assessment that focuses on macroeconomic demand management. It is shown that Germany's fiscal crisis cannot be attributed to unification per se; it arose as a consequence of ill‐guided macroeconomic policies pursued in response to that event. Many structural problems that popped up along the way were mere symptoms of persistent macroeconomic mismanagement and protracted domestic demand stagnation. Arguably, systematically ill‐guided macroeconomic policies of this type are potent enough to wreck any real world economy, no matter how flexible it may be. Because Germany provided the blueprint for Europe's stability‐oriented macroeconomic policy regime, it comes as no surprise that a peculiar repeat of certain symptoms that started to arise in Germany a decade ago may now be observed across the euro area—protracted domestic demand weakness and inflation stickiness because of ‘tax‐push inflation’ in particular.     

‘Managing’ Reductions in Working Hours: A Study of Work-time and Leisure Preferences in UK Industry

This paper, which is predicated on the view that reductions in work-time are generally desirable, explores the working hours of managers and professionals in UK industry. Managers and professionals are often grouped together in empirical and theoretical work, e.g. in the literature on the professional-managerial class, and Goldthorpe's ‘Service Class’. Nevertheless, there are differences: professionals, historically, are autonomous workers; the role of managers, in contrast, is to extract work from others on behalf of the organisation. Using data collected from the 2005 Labour Force Survey we establish there are statistically significant empirical differences between managers and professionals; one of these differences is in attitudes to work-time. We theorise that this is because managers' roles align their attitudes with those desired by the firm or organisation, and we conclude that, as a consequence, the ‘voluntary’ nature of work-time regulation should be revisited.     

由当今疫情出发思考未来风景园林

无论是19世纪的西方还是20世纪初的中国,公共 园林伴随着城市建设快速发展所带来的各种公共环境卫生问题 应运而生,并不断发展。2020年初的新冠肺炎疫情是在城市 规模更大、人的物质与精神双重需求更多样化的背景下发生 的。它不可避免地推动了人们价值观和生活方式的转变。由 此,城市绿地系统的提升、郊区配套设施的完善,以及由联系 城郊的纽带系统提供的安全性、生态性、参与性的综合性生活 保障等人居公共环境建设策略都将成为风景园林专业的热点话 题。未来的城市与郊区的发展需要发生根本性的转变,建设以 人行系统、自然系统为第一系统的复合型链接体系,满足未来 人们忘情于天然之趣的生活需求,为人居环境带来质的飞跃。 而面对转变,风景园林需要以竖向整合设计为核心技术进行跨 专业整合,创造未来新的风景园林核心技术体系,并前瞻性地 思考疫情推动下凸显的人类宏观问题。     

True protection and the real exchange rate in a capital-rich developing country: some evidence for Saudi Arabia

This paper investigates how alternative measures of the real exchange rate respond to trade policy and terms of trade changes. It employs a modelling framework which endogenises the price of non-tradeable goods, and applies the model to price and real exchange rate data for Saudi Arabia for the period 1982–92. The results show that the popular propositions about the response of the real exchange rate to terms of trade or trade policy changes do not necessary hold. This is a consequence of the measure of the real exchange rate utilized, rather than a product of Saudi Arabia's capital richness.     

Plausible cooperation

There is a large repeated games literature illustrating how future interactions provide incentives for cooperation. Much of the earlier literature assumes public monitoring. Departures from public monitoring to private monitoring that incorporate differences in players' observations may dramatically complicate coordination and the provision of incentives, with the consequence that equilibria with private monitoring often seem unrealistically complex or fragile. We set out a model in which players accomplish cooperation in an intuitively plausible fashion. Players process information via a mental system – a set of psychological states and a transition function between states depending on observations. Players restrict attention to a relatively small set of simple strategies, and consequently, might learn which perform well.     

Pasinetti,Keynes and the multiplier

This paper explores the relationship between the Keynesian multiplier and Pasinetti's model of pure production. Key assumptions of Pasinetti's model are its multisectoral structure, the definition of all income as a reward to labouring activities and, as a consequence, the operation of a pure labour theory of value. A translation between these models is effected by introducing investment as an exogenous determinant. By drawing from Keynes to apply his concept of the wage unit, it is possible to aggregate from Pasinetti's multisectoral model to a genuinely macroeconomic multiplier. This provides a way of using the scalar Keynesian multiplier without making the restrictive one-commodity assumption. In addition, this formal demonstration enhances our understanding of the relationship between the wage unit and the labour theory of value. Finally, critics have argued that Pasinetti downgrades the importance of institutional analysis; in contrast, the derivation of a scalar Keynesian multiplier contributes to an understanding of how relevant Pasinetti's approach is to the analysis of a monetary production economy.     

Changes in women's hours of market work: The role of returns to experience

Over the past several decades, married women's hours of market work increased significantly in the US. I argue that changes in behavior by married women with children account for much of this change. In particular, the pattern of married women's work hours has changed substantially over the life cycle. In the past, married women in childbearing age tended to specialize in childrearing and home production activities at the expense of engaging in market work. Now they do not curb the hours they work in the market.What factors contribute to this change in behavior? In this paper, I focus on relative changes in returns to experience as an explanation. I use PSID data for the 1970s and the 1990s to estimate the extent to which relative returns to experience have changed. I then use a life-cycle model with human capital accumulation and home production to quantitatively assess the consequences of this increase for married women's hours of work over the life cycle.The estimates of the human capital production function show that women's marginal returns to experience increased by 25% across decades, whereas men's increased by only 6%. I show that this relative change accounts for 96% of the observed variation in married women's hours of work. Moreover, according to the model, the increase in returns to experience accounts for roughly half of the increase in the female/male wage ratio that is found in the data. I also show that a decline in the gender wage gap, holding returns to experience constant, accounts for only 18% of the total increase in hours of work. As a consequence, it cannot explain the change in the shape of women's life-cycle profiles. Although the focus of the analysis is the labor supply behavior of women, the model also allows predictions about the behavior of men and single women. These predictions are consistent with the data.     

Asymmetric Information and the Russian Individual Savings Market

The article considers the influence of informational imperfections on the performance of the Russian financial market. The focus is on the individual savings market, which exhibits inefficiencies, including those associated with the market power of a dominant agent—Sberbank. Reinforcement of Sberbank's dominance on the market in the period 1994‐98 (before the August default combined with financial crisis) is explained as a consequence of asymmetric information about the probability of bankruptcy of a new bank. Under asymmetric information a new private bank has to provide specific quality signals in order to attract depositors. Two major lines of inquiry are the criteria for choosing forms of savings, including that of a bank in which to deposit money, by Russian citizens, and banks' advertising strategies to confirm the factual risk of default. Within the conceptual framework of a game with separating equilibrium, we analyse the behaviour of the agents on both supply and demand sides in the market. We find that there is evidence of using advertising as a tool of quality signalling at a certain phase of the Russian individual savings market's development.     

South Africa's export predicament*

Using South Africa as an example, this article explores how the structure of production affects export diversification and economic growth. We show that the lagging process of structural transformation is part of the explanation for stagnant exports per capita in South Africa over the past 40 years. This slow structural transformation is shown to be a consequence in part of the peripheral nature of South Africa's productive capabilities: the country is specialized in sectors intensive in highly specific factors of production that cannot be easily redeployed to other activities. Using this methodology, we examine the sectoral priorities of the South African Department of Trade and Industry and explore the policy implications of the country's orientation in the product space.