基于网络的新型药品营销模式探索

药品在质量、包装规格、主要成分、主要功能、适用范围等都可以高度标准化,因此药品是非常适合从事网上交易的。本文就目前药品网络营销在发达国家和我国的发展现状进行概要性总结,指出我国的药品网络营销与发达国家在此方面的差距,对药品网络营销在我国发展的市场前景进行了分析和预测,介绍了电子商务中的B2C经营模式,以及一种将B2C经营模式应用于药品网络销售的新营销模式,分别从构建新型B2C药品营销模式与零售药店和连锁药店的合作模式、对消费者的服务模式以及新型B2C药品营销模式的盈利方式等方面探讨了新型B2C网络药店的可行性,并深入分析了这种新型B2C药品营销模式相对于传统药店和传统售药网站的优势。最后本文对上述新型B2C网络药店提出了具体的网站参考模型。     

Seasonal models of peak electric load demand

Energy consumption in a pilgrim city belonging to a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) country exhibits strong seasonal pattern due to higher demand in summer season and additional load during the pilgrimage months. The pilgrimage month's timing is not fixed in the Gregorian calendar. The event varies according to the lunar calendar called the Hegira calendar, which lags behind the former by approximately 14 days in a year. Ten seasonal demand models are developed to model energy estimate for a GCC pilgrimage city. Among the long-range forecast models, three trigonometric models, a multiplicative model, and a multivariate model using categorical variables are considered. Further, a composite nonlinear model whose coefficients are nonlinear is suggested. This model combines the seasonality extracted from a multivariate regression model and a model that represents the peak electric load pattern. Adopting least square fit of a chi-square error function expanded by parabolic expansion, the parameters of the nonlinear model are identified. Moreover, smoothing-based techniques, such as moving average, double exponential smoothing, Winter's, and a multiplicative seasonal model, are suggested. The peak electric load model on lunar and solar calendars is closely related, and the deference in fitting error can be attributed to the magnitude of data. Computational results and statistical tests are presented to analyze the models. It is observed that the multiplicative model performs better to predict the peak electric load demand.     

HM treasury macroeconomic model 1986

This paper describes HM Treasury's Macroeconomic Model as at the beginning of 1986. It outlines the key relationship in the large (1 200 variables) model and relates them to the IS/LM model. The behavioural hypothesis underlying the main sectors of the model eg price determination, supply, and the domestic financial sector of the model are explained using a stylized representation of the main model. Some of the key econometric estimates are provided. Overall model properties are illustrated by means of model simulations.     

A DSGE model with housing in the cointegrated VAR framework

In order to empirically investigate the assumptions underlying a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the long-run and the short-run structure of the model may be imposed in the framework given by a cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) model. This allows testing restrictions pertaining to the model without filtering the data before estimating the model. A DSGE model which includes financial markets is tested in the CVAR framework, and restrictions from the theoretical model are mainly rejected. Comparing impulse response functions from the theoretical model and the restricted empirical model also show that the results from the theoretical model are not found in the data. This suggests that the theoretical model needs to be extended or modified before it can match the empirical observations.     

当前中国县域经济发展的经验模式探析

改革开放促使县域经济积极探索特殊发展之路。“苏南模式”、“珠江模式”、“温州模式”、“晋江模式”、“巩义模式”、“农安模式”及“义乌模式”等是各地在发展县域经济方面积极探索的成果,是基于中国实践的发展经济学的实验范本。这些经验模式建立在各自相对优势基础上,只有类型相同的借鉴性,并不是广泛推广的范式。研究分析这些模式,是为了在新形势下,面向未来,反思过去,学习借鉴,促进中国县域经济全面可持续发展。体制改革和创新才是促进县域经济可持续发展的基本保障和根本动力。     

COMPARATIVE STATICS OF A MONOPOLISTIC FIRM FACING RATE‐OF‐RETURN AND COMMAND‐AND‐CONTROL POLLUTION CONSTRAINTS

The intrinsic comparative statics properties of a general rate‐of‐return regulated, profit‐maximizing model of a monopolist facing a command‐and‐control pollution constraint are derived. Recent advances in the theory of comparative statics are used to derive the basic comparative statics of the model, which are contained in an observable negative semi‐definite matrix and possess the form of Slutsky‐like expressions. We consider several command‐and‐control pollution constraints that are commonly implemented in practice, and conclude that the intrinsic comparative statics properties of the model are qualitatively invariant to the type of command‐and‐control pollution constraint imposed. We compare our results with those extant, and find that several basic results from the standard A–J model no longer hold in our model.     

A note on the Tobit likelihood function

The likelihood functions for several econometric models are unbounded over certain sequences in parameter space. Examples are the disequilibrium model, the conditional logit model and a certain type of switching regression model. We show how a similar difficulty may arise in the Tobit model but that the presence of this anomaly becomes less likely as sample size increases.     

An aggregative multiproduct supply model

This paper develops a simple multiproduct supply model. Differential supply equations are parameterized in terms of log-changes and resemble the Rotterdam demand model. U.S. data with three product groups is used to estimate the model by maximum likelihood and the restrictions implied by the theoretical model are tested.     

Sensitivity analysis of efficiency rankings to distributional assumptions: applications to Japanese water utilities

This article examines the robustness of efficiency score rankings across four distributional assumptions for trans-log stochastic production-frontier models, using data from 1221 Japanese water utilities (for 2004 and 2005). One-sided error terms considered include the half-normal, truncated normal, exponential and gamma distributions. Results are compared for homoscedastic and doubly heteroscedastic models, where we also introduce a doubly heteroscedastic variable mean model, and examine the sensitivity of the nested models to a stronger heteroscedasticity correction for the one-sided error component. The results support three conclusions regarding the sensitivity of efficiency rankings to distributional assumptions. When four standard distributional assumptions are applied to a homoscedastic stochastic frontier model, the efficiency rankings are quite consistent. When those assumptions are applied to a doubly heteroscedastic stochastic frontier model, the efficiency rankings are consistent when proper and sufficient arguments for the variance functions are included in the model. When a more general model, like a variable mean model is estimated, efficiency rankings are quite sensitive to heteroscedasticity correction schemes.     

知识产权密集型产业专利联盟运营模式创新研究

基于商务模式创新视角,提出了知识产权密集型产业专利联盟的6种专利运营模式,包括专利谈判模式、专利许可模式、产业合作模式、知识产权与产业发展论坛模式、专利联盟与专利运营中心协同模式以及品牌共享与合作模式。围绕传统型企业与知识产权密集型企业之间的商标诉讼案,剖析了其负面影响,提出了权利冲突的解决方案。最后,从食品产业专利联盟运营层面,提出设立淮安捆蹄地理标志品牌保护推广平台和缘文化传播公共平台。     

A model selection approach for multiple indicators multiple causes model

This study proposes a model selection approach for determining the inclusion or exclusion of a latent variable when two exogenous and two endogenous variables are provided. The models compared are the multivariate regression model without latent variables (MR model) and the multiple indicators multiple causes model (MIMIC model). The inclusion of a latent variable in the MR model yields the MIMIC model. In the proposed approach, an information criterion is used to select the best model of the two. The efficacy of the proposed approach is examined through two types of simulation studies and empirical analyses of the shadow economy and the fiscal illusion.     

Inequality and mobility

Acknowledging that wage inequality and intergenerational mobility are strongly interrelated, this paper presents a model in which both are jointly determined. The model enables us to study how inequality and mobility are affected by exogenous changes and what determines their correlation. A main implication of the model is that differences in the amount of public subsidies to education and educational quality produce cross-country patterns with a negative correlation between inequality and mobility. Differences in the labor market, like differences in skill-biased technology or wage compression instead produce a positive correlation. The predictions of the model are found to be consistent with various empirical observations on mobility and inequality.     

可持续发展评价的理论模型研究

可持续发展评价方法和衡量标准的研究．是联系可持续发展理论与实践的纽带。目前可持续发展的各种度量方法和评价模型尚处于探索阶段．本文研究发现以下几种理论模型具有进行区域评价的广泛应用价值，即递阶多层次综合评价模型、相对资源承载力模型、生态足迹评价模型、系统模糊模式评价模型。     

能源投入产出模型的选择：混合型还是价值型*

将投入产出技术用于能源问题的分析时，当前文献中有两类模型：混合型能源投入产出模型和价值型能源投入产出模型，其中价值型模型应用更为广泛。本文从能源平衡方程入手，对这两类模型的本质特点和差异进行了辨析，通过严格证明，得到如下结论：第一，在技术系数矩阵稳定的条件下，出现新的最终需求时，混合型能源投入产出模型仍然保证能源平衡方程的成立，具备一致性。第二，在技术系数矩阵和能源价格矩阵稳定的条件下，出现新的最终需求时，价值型能源投入产出模型无法保证能源平衡方程的成立。虽然价值型能源投入产出模型在初始构建过程中使用了能源平衡方程，但本质上是以价值单位的投入产出方程为根本出发点的，并没有考虑能源平衡方程在新的最终需求发生时是否仍然成立的问题，没有考虑能源使用的一致性。因此，一般情况下混合型能源投入产出模 型更为合理。第三，在某些特殊情况下这两类模型等价：（1）当最终需求结构保持不变，而只有最终需求总量发生变化时；（2）当能源在各使用部门之间的价格完全相同时。这些结论为实际应用中如何选择恰当的能源投入产出模型提供了依据。     

Fads or bubbles?

This paper tests between fads and bubbles using a switching regression to distinguish between competing models. Two main features of the bubbles model distinguish it from the fads model. First, the bubbles model implies that returns are drawn from regimes which differ in the way returns vary with deviations from fundamental prices. Second, the bubbles model implies that deviations from fundamental price will help predict regime switches. Using US data for 1926–89, we find evidence which is consistent with the fads model even when we allow for variation in expected dividend growth rates and expected discount rates. However, the restrictions which the fads model implies for a more general switching-regression specification are rejected. The rejections point in the direction of the bubbles model, although not all of the implications of the bubbles model are supported by the data. First Version Received: October 2000/Final Version Received: October 2001     

TESTING THE SEQUENTIAL LOGIT MODEL AGAINST THE NESTED LOGIT MODEL*

In this paper, we show that the sequential logit (SL) model, in which a choice process is characterized as a sequence of independent multinomial logit models, is a limiting case of the nested logit (NL) model. For testing the SL model against the NL model, we propose Wald, likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier tests after suitably reparameterizing the NL model. It is found that when the NL model parameters are “weakly identified”, the Wald test severely underrejects the true model, whereas the sizes of the LR and LM tests are not significantly affected.     

The law of one price and the modelling of disaggregated trade flows

This paper argues that the application of a differentiated good model to disaggregated commodity trade, and in particular to primary commodity trade, is feasible. Price data for as narrowly defined a commodity as wheat are shown to violate the law of one price. An Armington-type model which allows prices of a commodity to vary by supplier is then applied to world wheat trade. Two issues concerning the Armington model are addressed. First, it is shown that the theoretical implications of the model are plausible in the case of a disaggregated commodity. Second, as an example, 1973–1974 wheat trade flows and prices forecast by an Armington-type model are shown to be consistent with actual trade patterns and prices.     

On Blending Competitive Trade Models

Three standard models typically discussed in the theory of international trade are the Ricardian model, the Heckscher‐Ohlin model and the Specific‐Factors model. Models are often compared with each other, in an attempt to analyze which model is best or fits reality better. Instead, I suggest that these international trade models can often be blended to take account of finite changes when, as a country develops, the appropriate model to be used changes as the pattern of production changes. Trade allows countries to produce fewer commodities than it consumes, and which commodities are selected to be produced may change as the economy grows in the size of its endowment bundle and/or technology changes. At issue is not only the question of which commodities are produced, but also how many commodities are produced, especially with reference to the number of productive factors.     

世界典型港口物流发展模式分析与启示

港口物流发展模式由港口管理模式和港口物流运作模式构成。当今世界典型港口管理模式有私人企业管理模式、以政府机构和国营企业管理模式和各方共同管理模式等三种,而在港口管理模式的大背景下,也形成了地主型物流中心模式、共同出资型物流中心模式、独立型物流中心模式和供应链型与联合型物流中心模式等四种港口物流运作模式。文章认为,根据世界典型港口物流发展成功模式,我国要高效发展港口物流,必须高度重视并合理规划港口管理模式,充分发挥政府的宏观指导与协调作用、认真研究现代港口物流发展的目标定位,大力发展集装箱业务,并积极构建国际物流中心。     

A heterogeneous agent exchange rate model with speculators and non-speculators

This paper constructs a heterogeneous agent exchange rate model of speculators and non-speculators from a simple monetary framework. The model replaces rational expectations with an adaptive learning rule that forecasts future exchange rates with an econometric model, and assumes two types of market participants, speculators and non-speculators, that differ by their forecasting model. Speculators employ a correctly specified forecasting model, are relatively short-term oriented, and are subject to momentum and herding effects via an expectation shock; non-speculators utilize a simple forecasting model, have no incentive to be short-term oriented, and are not subject to herding effects. Parameters are calibrated and estimated using the method of simulated moments, and simulation results show that the model is able to replicate foreign exchange market stylized facts better than a model of representative agent rational expectations. Furthermore, the dynamics of the model are shown to derive from both agent heterogeneity and the expectation shock.