SOCIAL SECURITY AND LABOR SUPPLY INCENTIVES

Many provisions of the Social Security program distort an individual's labor supply incentives. In particular, the payroll tax, the earnings test, the offsetting actuarial adjustment, and the dependence of the size of future benefits on the level of current earnings all affect the net return to extra work. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the size of the net tax rate on labor income in a variety of circumstances, taking into account all these provisions, as well as the personal income tax. We find that the Social Security Program on net in the past has provided a large subsidy to labor supply, which for many people effectively offset the personal income tax. This subsidy rate, however, has been declining steadily over time     

Social Security and the increasing longevity gap

Growth in overall life expectancy is straining the Social Security budget, and the gap in life expectancy between the rich and poor is widening. Motivated by these facts, this paper does four things. First, we develop a simple way to summarize the degree of progressivity in a Social Security system. Second, we show that growth in the life expectancy gap over the last few decades unwinds three-quarters of the progressivity of the Social Security system. Third, we develop simple reforms to Social Security that maintain the progressivity of the system and restore fiscal solvency. Fourth, we estimate the welfare effects of these potential reforms.     

The social security early entitlement age in a structural model of retirement and wealth

A structural life cycle model of retirement and wealth attributes retirement peaks at both ages 62 and 65 to Social Security rules and wide heterogeneity in time preferences. Those with high discount rates often retire at 62. They have few assets and heavily value lost benefits from working after 62, largely ignoring potential increases in later benefits. Declining actuarial adjustments beginning at 65 induce those with low discount rates to retire at 65. Raising the Social Security early entitlement age to 64 induces 5% of the population to delay retiring, shifting the retirement spike from 62 to 64.     

Social Security Liabilities

This paper reviews the long-term financial problems facing the U.S. Social Security system. Not only is the system out of long-term actuarial balance, but implicit rates of return on worker contributions are low and dropping. The paper discusses different approaches for dealing with the twin problems suggested by the 1994–1996 Advisory Council on Social Security, ending with a case for a middle-of-the-road approach featuring modest long-term benefit cuts and small, centrally managed, add-on individual accounts. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: H55.     

Earnings,social security legislation and retirement decisions: the Austrian experience

This paper analyses the labour supply behaviour of elderly males in Austria and asks how far it is determined by the characteristics of the Austrian Social Security System. This is of particular interest because old age insurance in Austria is dominated by the public pension plan, so that private pension plans are of minor importance. I argue that from a theoretical point of view the actuarial unfairness of the insurance plan creates a strong incentive to withdraw from the labour force at the minimum retirement age. Secondly, the rising earnings replacement ratio might be responsible for the decreasing average retirement age. These hypotheses are tested empirically. A pooled time-series cross-sections labour force participation model is estimated for single birth year cohorts of elderly males. I find strong evidence for the proposition, that the age-participation pattern might be determined by the incentives created by social security and that the decrease in labour force participation rates over time may be due to the rising earnings replacement ratio. Remaining differences in labour force participation of elderly males may be attributable to cohort population size and to a long run trend.     

Social Security and saving: A time-series econometrics pedagogical example (with R code)

In 1974, and then again in 1996, Martin Feldstein published studies of the impact of the Social Security system on private saving in the U.S. economy. He found that Social Security depressed personal saving by a substantial amount—up to 50 percent. The author uses the Feldstein data and empirical models in this article to illustrate the steps in analyzing distributed lag problems. These particular data and methods exemplify, among other things, unit roots, autocorrelated residuals, spurious regression, trend breaks, and cointegration. As such, they provide an excellent pedagogical case study. All R code for this article is provided so that students may replicate and extend the included models and results.     

On the Pro-Social Security Rhetoric

We propose to reframe Social Security to offer a coherent anti-privatization rhetoric that has not been fully provided in the contemporary literature. The dissatisfaction that motivated this study centers on the observation that the prevalent anti-privatization rhetoric exposes the drawbacks of Private Retirement Accounts (PRAs), but this rhetoric itself doesn't satisfactorily explain why the current Social Security system is more desirable. In reframing Social Security, we will follow a two-stage strategy. First, we will articulate the desirability of Social Security grounded in the function it serves in a way PRAs are not suited for serving: being a social income insurance scheme whose provision inherently favors the least fortunate in a Rawlsian fashion. Second, we will concentrate how Social Security provides this non-market choice by drawing on the unique resources not entirely available to the market.     

DISENTANGLING THE ANNUITY FROM THE REDISTRIBUTIVE ASPECTS OF SOCIAL SECURITY IN THE UNITED STATES*

In the United States, the life-cycle relationship between initial Social Security contributions and subsequent benefits causes the effect of Social Security on income distribution to be overestimated in a single-period analytical framework. By separating the annuity from the redistributive aspects of Social Security we provide a life-cycle framework for measuring its net effect on redistribution. To this point in its history, we find all income classes have received positive net life-cycle income transfers and, in an absolute sense, upper-income groups have done at least as well as lower-income groups. This suggests a reason for the near-universal support of Social Security by past generations, as well as the controversy which now surrounds it. As it becomes apparent to younger cohorts of taxpayers that many of them will be net losers, it is inevitable that Social Security will be subject to the same controversy as other welfare programs which attempt to redistribute income.     

Social Security and personal saving: 1971 and beyond

Feldstein (1996, 1974) reported that Social Security in the U.S.A. reduced personal saving (“saving”) in 1992 (1971) by $416 ($61) billion. I reestimate his life-cycle consumption specification using data from the latest NIPA revision, correct his calculations, and find that the implied reduction in 1992 (1971) saving is now $280 ($22) billion, 48% (16%) of actual net private saving, with a standard error of $114 ($14) billion. If structural breaks around WWII and the 1972 Social Security amendments (which raised real per capita SSW by 22%) are allowed, and the market value of Treasury debt included in the specification, the reduction in 1971 and 1992 saving attributable to Social Security is at most 0.55 times its standard error, and 12% of net private saving. I then reestimate the preferred specification of Coates and Humphreys (1999), allowing for these structural breaks and relaxing other restrictions. The implied effect of Social Security on saving is again statistically zero. First version received: September 2000/Final version received: September 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  I thank Les Oxley for pointing out that correcting for AR(1) residuals is not a categorical imperative but a cultural relative, in which case common factor restrictions are crucial.     

A Critique of ‘Neoliberal Autonomy’: The Rhetoric of Ownership Society

The rhetoric of the Ownership Society defined by the Cato Institute has been integral to framing the motivation behind the Social Security reform introduced by George W. Bush. This motivational frame involves a fierce advocacy of what we will call ‘neoliberal autonomy’ in a Hayekian and Friedmanite sense. For Hayek and Friedman, the social adequacy component of Social Security is problematized in the name of self-reliance and individual choice, which rejects any authoritative standards as morally indefensible. Nevertheless, the rhetoric of the Ownership Society, though it glorifies the neoliberal notion of autonomy, does not explicitly question the moral basis of Social Security. Rather, by defining the terms of debate, it frames the meaning of Social Security along neoliberal lines in an attempt to make a supposedly detached economic case for private retirement accounts. In this ‘pro-privatization’ framework, the social adequacy component of the Social Security system fades away as individual equity, or actuarial fairness, comes to the fore as the chief theme. We suggest a ‘pro-social’ rhetoric that recognizes the pursuit of social standards as providing the element of autonomy.

Valuation in infinite-horizon sequential markets with portfolio constraints

Summary. We develop a theory of valuation of assets in sequential markets over an infinite horizon and discuss implications of this theory for equilibrium under various portfolio constraints. We characterize a class of constraints under which sublinear valuation and a modified present value rule hold on the set of non-negative payoff streams in the absence of feasible arbitrage. We provide an example in which valuation is non-linear and the standard present value rule fails in incomplete markets. We show that linearity and countable additivity of valuation hold when markets are complete. We present a transversality constraint under which valuation is linear and countably additive on the set of all payoff streams regardless of whether markets are complete or incomplete. Received: March 9, 2000; revised version: February 13, 2001     

Social Security must be reformed

Today's Social Security system must be reformed not only because it will soon be in financial crisis but also because it is simply a bad deal for most Americans, this author believes. She argues that it should be transformed into a system of personal retirement accounts and uses the example of San Diego, which opted out of Social Security in 1981 and replaced it with a mandatory defined contribution program for city employees, to show the benefits of private accounts.     

Labor supply responses to marginal Social Security benefits: Evidence from discontinuities

A key question for Social Security reform is whether workers respond to the link on the margin between the Social Security taxes they pay and the Social Security benefits they will receive. We estimate the effects of the marginal Social Security benefits that accrue with additional earnings on three measures of labor supply: retirement age, hours, and labor earnings. We develop a new approach to identifying these incentive effects by exploiting five provisions in the Social Security benefit rules that generate discontinuities in marginal benefits or non-linearities in marginal benefits that converge to discontinuities as uncertainty about the future is resolved. We find that individuals approaching retirement (age 52 and older) respond to the Social Security tax-benefit link on the extensive margin of their labor supply decisions: we estimate that a 10% increase in the net-of-tax share reduces the two-year retirement hazard by a statistically significant 2.0 percentage points from a base rate of 15%. The evidence with regard to labor supply responses on the intensive margin is more mixed: we estimate that the elasticity of hours with respect to the net-of-tax share is 0.42 and statistically significant, but we do not find a statistically significant earnings elasticity. Though we lack statistical power to estimate results within subsamples precisely, the retirement response is driven mostly by the female subsample, while the hours response comes from the male subsample.     

Differential mortality and social security

Abstract This paper studies the normative problem of redistribution between individuals who differ in their lifespans. We discuss aspects related to the objective function and argue that aversion to multiperiod inequality should be taken into account. Then, we study the properties of the social optimum both with full information and with asymmetric information. We highlight the role of aversion to multiperiod inequality and show that it has substantial consequences on the design of Social Security schemes. In particular, we show that for a low (resp. high) aversion to multiperiod inequality, a negative (resp. positive) implicit tax rate on continued activity is desirable.     

Laboratory Testbeds and Non-Market Valuation: The Case of Bidding Behavior in a Second-Price Auction with an Outside Option

Researchers now use the lab to examine the behavioral underpinnings of valuation before the field application which some argue has less experimental control. But lab valuation work raises its own set of concerns when it uses private goods to explore non-market valuation behavior because private goods have substitutes often unaccounted for in the lab. Therefore, the lab as a tool to testbed field valuation work may be limited. Herein we design an induced valuation experiment to explore bidding behavior in a second-price auction with an outside option that is a perfect substitute for the auction commodity. Theory predicts that rational bidders will consider the prices of outside options when formulating bidding strategies, and will reduce their bids whenever their resale value exceeds the price of the outside option. Our results suggest that bidders account for outside options when formulating bids with behavior following comparative static predictions. In addition, we provide evidence concerning hypothetical versus actual behavior with induced values – the data suggesting a hypothetical bias in the level of bids but not in bid shaving.     

The funding for a Defined Benefit (DB) pension plan based on the fair valuation of the plan's insolvency risk

This study provides a contingent claims valuation approach model to value a sponsor's claim on a salary-related, defined benefit (DB) pension plan. The model is further developed to numerically estimate a suggested optimal contribution cost that allows the sponsor to fairly bear the risk of the plan's insolvency. The results demonstrate that the traditional actuarial valuation underestimates the cost of pension benefits, and that the normal contribution cost is not enough for the sponsor to fairly charge the value of bearing the plan's insolvency.     

A Critique of ‘Neoliberal Autonomy’: The Rhetoric of Ownership Society

The rhetoric of the Ownership Society defined by the Cato Institute has been integral to framing the motivation behind the Social Security reform introduced by George W. Bush. This motivational frame involves a fierce advocacy of what we will call ‘neoliberal autonomy’ in a Hayekian and Friedmanite sense. For Hayek and Friedman, the social adequacy component of Social Security is problematized in the name of self-reliance and individual choice, which rejects any authoritative standards as morally indefensible. Nevertheless, the rhetoric of the Ownership Society, though it glorifies the neoliberal notion of autonomy, does not explicitly question the moral basis of Social Security. Rather, by defining the terms of debate, it frames the meaning of Social Security along neoliberal lines in an attempt to make a supposedly detached economic case for private retirement accounts. In this ‘pro-privatization’ framework, the social adequacy component of the Social Security system fades away as individual equity, or actuarial fairness, comes to the fore as the chief theme. We suggest a ‘pro-social’ rhetoric that recognizes the pursuit of social standards as providing the element of autonomy.     

Optimal retirement age,leisure and consumption

In this paper, we study the determination of optimal retirement age, optimal leisure time, and optimal consumption, and we also analyze their relationships using an optimal control theory. We establish a life cycle model and analyze the factors of consumption, leisure, saving, mortality and retirement behaviors simultaneously with an orthogonal-array experimental design. Our results show that the initial salary level and the growth rate of salary are the most important determining factors of the optimal retirement age. The initial consumption level and the interest rate are also important factors affecting optimal retirement age. The mortality improvement has a minor effect on the optimal retirement age. The effects of the Social Security on the optimal retirement age depend on the Social Security tax and the level of Social Security benefit.     

EMPLOYEE BENEFITS AND SOCIAL SECURITY

Future growth in employee benefits has a significant linkage with the long-range actuarial position of Social Security (OASDI). Earlier research by this author explained the sensitivity of the projected long-range OASDI deficit to the assumption about the rate of growth of fringe benefits. ¹ This paper summarizes, updates, and extends the discussion of the implications of fringe-benefit growth to include distributional effects     

Ecodynamics. A New Theory of Societal Evolution

The purpose of this essay is to provide an alternative approach to studying the rhetoric of policy-oriented economics suggesting that the range of economic-policy possibilities is conditioned by the rhetoric of economics. To this end, Martin Feldstein's pro-privatization rhetoric will be compared to that of President Bush. In doing so, we will aim at showing that just as the political rhetoric of Social Security invokes the authority of "ideographs" such as personal ownership to draw on a society's ideological and cultural repertoire, economic rhetoric undertakes a similar task by employing "economic ideographs" like deadweight loss to resonate with fellow economists through an appeal to the implicit normative premises embedded in the language of economics.