THE IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FOR LIVESTOCK IN SAHELIAN COUNTRIES

The evaluation of livestock production in the United Nations System of National Accounts implies a measure which is inconsistent with the general principle evaluation of production in this system.
This paper deals with a critical appraisal of the methods used by the SNA and two sahelian countries in livestock accounting.
Finally, estimations of NIGER'S GDP over the period 1983 to 1985 are carried out, using the four livestock production assessments presented. Differences in GDP's evaluations are large, reaching 17 percent in 1984 and 7 percent in 1985 in terms of rate of growth.     

INFLATION,NONOPTIMAL MONETARY ARRANGEMENTS AND THE BANKING IMPUTATION IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

This paper demonstrates, with the use of some recent developments in neoclassical monetary theory, that the banking imputation problem in the national accounts arises because of the regulation of banks by Authorities. It demonstrates as well that the banking imputation problem is a manifestation of the failure of the Authorities to provide optimal monetary arrangements. Some comments on existing imputations, in the light of this theory, are provided.     

TREATMENT OF SUBSIDIES IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

This document contains a critical analysis of some aspects of the treatment of subsidies in the present system of national accounts (United Nations SNA and the ESA, i.e. the European System of Integrated Economic Accounts) as background to the current discussion of their revision. One of the conventions used is that subsidies are recorded as a resource in the accounts of the market producer units which actually receive them. Should this rule of the receiver be applied in every case? The paper suggests that it would be preferable to attribute subsidies to the beneficiary in those cases where a subsidy received by one unit is the counterpart of a reduction in price which he grants to another unit which buys something from him (and which is the real beneficiary), so long as the discount is only granted to specific categories of purchasers. Recording in the accounts of the beneficiary results in a better distribution in the branch accounts and moreover greater stability of the national accounts in the face of minor institutional changes. The problem of allocation arises also for transfers designed to cover social risks or needs (illness, invalidism, old age, maternity). For this category of “social” goods and services for which general government wholly or partially assumes the costs to households, the transfer is treated either as a subsidy to collective consumption or a social benefit. The institutional arrangements, which vary from country to country, product to product and over time, give rise to profoundly different recording in the accounts. In order to restrict these differences, improve comparability between countries, permit analysis of trends over time, make the accounts less sensitive to different institutional arrangements and obtain a figure for household consumption which does not depend on the particular way in which the costs of such consumption is borne, the present document suggests that consumption subsidies should be treated as individual consumption expenditure of general government.     

DEVELOPMENT OF AN ALGORITHM FOR THE COMPILATION OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND RELATED SYSTEMS OF STATISTICS*

The present article includes a proposal for a national accounts algorithm to be applied in the computerization of the national accounts compilation process. While aiming at the estimation and reconciliation of data from different statistical sources, it is based on the application of a linear programming technique applied to a system of identities and inequalities that define the accounting and analytical relations between the data categories of a national accounting framework. The technique is flexible in the sense that it can be used with any configuration of available statistical sources and data requirements of the national accounts. The algorithm is illustrated graphically with help of a simple example and thereafter applied to an extended but still simple national accounting scheme for Suriname with data for 1965 that was compiled by the author many years ago. As the present study is only a first step in the development of the algorithm, more work is needed to make it operational and the last section of the article includes suggestions about the direction of that further work.     

INTEREST,DISTRIBUTION OF VALUE ADDED AND INFLATION: INFLATION-INDUCED DIFFICULTIES IN THE INTERPRETATION OF DUTCH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

The present paper examines the inflationary bias of sectoral income transactions in national accounting data. An inconsistency of these data is pointed out. Alternative income measures are estimated by adjusting the standard national accounting data for inflationary gains and losses. These gains and losses arise from financing by loan capital. Several issues concerning income concepts and alternative methods for the measurement of inflationary gains and losses are discussed. It is concluded that an adjustment of sectoral income data for these gains and losses produces a very different picture of the sectoral distribution of income.     

THE USE OF TENDENCY SURVEYS IN EXTRAPOLATING NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

A well-known way of using tendency survey data is the construction of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs). It is rather peculiar that CLIs pretend to predict macroeconomic aggregates, while their construction is not consistent with the way actual macroeconomic statistics are compiled. This paper contains preliminary results of an attempt to integrate tendency survey indicators into the framework of the Dutch Quarterly Accounts. We conclude that tendency survey indicators can contribute to an explanation of trends in "real" economic variables. Many of these indicators lead the Quarterly Accounts indicators. They can, therefore, contribute to a timely estimation of National Accounts aggregates.     

THE PRESENT STATE OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN LATIN AMERICA

This document attempts to give an overall review of the present situation of national accounts in Latin America, and deals essentially with the statistical basis and procedures used in their preparation. The purpose of these comments is to place the main problems common to all countries in order of priority and, in view of the need to advance and in the face of the task of establishing the present SNA, to discuss briefly the main lines which future work might follow. The stage of development so far reached by national accounts in Latin America is unsatisfactory if compared with the former system recommended by the United Nations two decades ago, and their recent evolution indicates that the rate of progress has fallen behind the advances made in the theoretical field in this connexion, and in relation to the increasing requirements of macroeconomic information for economic planning and policy. This whole picture becomes more meaningful if the objectives, structure and content of the present SNA, that has already been in force for five years, are compared with the present state of national accounts estimates in the region, which reveals the long road that lies ahead and the magnitude of the effort required if the present situation is to show a change for the better. Clearly, little progress can be made unless the basic statistics are expanded in scope and improved. This is the crux of the problem, towards which the greatest efforts and resources should primarily be channeled. It is necessary to adopt a critical approach and concerted action with respect to four aspects which characterize the national statistical systems in Latin America:

• (a) organizational problems and the shortage of human and financial resources;
• (b) the lack of co-ordinated programmes of basic statistics;
• (c) the limited use of efficient methods of collecting data; and
• (d) the insufficient recourse to administrative records.

     

CONCEPT AND DEFINITION OF INCOME IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

It is a truism that the national accounts have engendered their own concept of income which is different from other contexts such as business accounting, taxation or welfare analysis. Less known are the principles on which this income concept is based. This article is an attempt to specify such principles, investigating in particular the role of the transaction principle, and to derive an income concept therefrom. The crucial point of the argument is whether or not it is appropriate within the system of the national accounts to assign an income to sectors other than the households. The theory is applied to some practical questions which have been discussed in the process of the revision of the SNA.     

REINVESTED EARNINGS IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper raises three questions. Firstly, is it warranted that a significant part of primary (property) income is not shown in the national accounts as being distributed to the owners of the assets to which it accrues but ends up as capital gains in the revaluation account? Secondly, why has the SNA chosen not to record reinvested earnings of corporations as flows of property income with the exception of foreign direct investment, and thirdly why the asymmetrical recording of stock investments constituting more than 10 percent of equity capital depending on whether domestic or foreign transactions are concerned? Reinvested earnings on domestic equity investment above 10 percent of a corporation are not recorded as property income in the system. The paper looks at these three questions from the perspective of the analytical uses of national accounts. The consequences for the analysis of income distribution both between nations and within nations are examined.     

SOME CONCEPTUAL DILEMMAS IN THE USE OF PRESENT NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The following note is a very concise summary of a paper² that was presented at the 17th General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth at Montvillargenne, August, 1981. As such it may be considered a new paper, although it contains practically all the conceptual issues of the original paper. As in the original paper its intention is only to place these issues before a wider audience, while specific solutions will have to wait for a more detailed treatment. All issues concern certain conceptual dilemmas, arising in particular in the use of national accounts when available concepts do not coincide with those for which data are sought. A decision to change the existing basic concepts would however require not only the support of the scholars in this field but also the co-operation of the users of national accounts. Due to extreme summarizing, certain statements are now fairly compact—compared with the original paper. It is nevertheless hoped that the basic problems still shine through. The following note gives instances in which the traditional national accounts, as established according to existing rules and statistics, may not suffice for actual data requirements, yielding differences in growth rates of several percentage points.     

POLLUTION AND POLLUTION ABATEMENT IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

Building on the approach of Weitzman, as extended by Hartwick and Mäler, five models of national accounts in a dynamic competitive economy with pollution externalities are constructed: flow pollutants, stock pollutants, fossil fuels and CO₂, living resources and acid rain, and household defensive expenditures. The results measure welfare rather than national product per se . The general conclusions are that abatement expenditures should be treated as intermediate consumption, that adjustments need to be made for both pollution emissions and natural pollution dissipation processes, that marginal social costs should be used to value emissions, and that the level of environmental services must be valued in measuring welfare. Not only should household defensive expenditures not be subtracted from the welfare measure, under plausible assumptions the adjustment to welfare (as opposed to NNP) includes a value greater than the level of household defensive expenditure.     

THE CHOICE OF THE AGGREGATION LEVEL IN THE ESTIMATION OF QUARTERLY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

Many central statistical offices use indirect time series disaggregation methods to produce quarterly national accounts estimates or other high frequency variables. This paper investigates the relation existing between the statistical properties of indirectly estimated time series and the contemporaneous aggregation level at which estimation is carried out, when a version of the Chow-Lin (1971, 1976) method is used to evaluate quarterly time series. It is shown that estimation at the lowest possible level of contemporaneous aggregation is not always optimal. In order to choose the level of contemporaneous aggregation at which time series disaggregation should be carried out, the use of formal econometric tests is suggested.     

国外国家海洋公园研究进展与启示

基于近10多年来国外相关文献资料的梳理与回顾,对建立国家海洋公园的目的与意义,公园在生态环境、渔业及旅游发展等方面对区域产生的影响,公园的选址与规划、经营与管理、相关利益者等方面的研究进展进行综述与评价,并提出我国国家海洋公园的建设设想,包括普及基本概念、完善法律法规、合理规划建设、科学经营管理等几个方面。