Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Photovoltaik im deutschen Energiemix – Neudefinition des Ansatzes der Netzparität

Photovoltaics are one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world. Despite high costs and a limited energy yield, attractive support schemes particularly the German renewable energy law have paved the way for the strong market growth of this technology within the last decade. Here the question arises as to when photovoltaics will reach a competitive level in Germany without the support of subsidies. The prominent grid parity approach is simple and considered critical in this discussion. It is critical because of the different references regarding the costs of electricity generated by a newly installed PV system and the electricity price of private households, which consists of electricity generation, distribution, sales as well as taxes and duties on the one hand. On the other hand, there are different time references in the calculation of electricity generation costs and electricity prices of private households. Transferring the approach of Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE) to all power generation plants within the energy mix means a redefinition of the grid parity of photovoltaics will be carried out. Here the electricity generation costs of photovoltaics as well as the energy mix will be calculated in the same way. The LCOE calculation refers to the whole life cycle of every power generation plant. That is why a balance between the high investment costs of photovoltaics and the increasing operation costs of fossil fuelled power plants is made. It can be shown that the reaching of competitiveness of photovoltaics in Germany depends on structural changes in electricity generation and it is to be realized within the anticipated time frame until the year 2020.     

Quantifizierung und Systematisierung der technischen und verhaltensbedingten Stromeinsparpotenziale der deutschen Privathaushalte

Electricity consumption in German households accounts for more than 10 % of energy-related CO₂ emissions. In spite of substantial improvements in, for example, the efficiency of household appliances, there is still a considerable electricity savings potential to be tapped in this sector. The possible contribution that the German residential sector can make to climate protection is correspondingly large. This paper aims to structure and quantify electricity savings potentials which could be exploited in German households either through investment measures or changed user behaviour. The total theoretical potential which can be tapped through the purchase of efficient household appliances and the replacement of electrical heaters and hot water generators (i.e. by encouraging investment) amounts to approx. 90 TWh/a. This corresponds to more than 60 % of the current electricity demand of all German households. By means of changed user behaviour, approx. 30 TWh of electricity could be saved according to our calculations. These results presented in this article were reached within the scope of the TRANSPOSE interdisciplinary research project (http://www.uni-muenster.de/Transpose/, the complete analysis can be downloaded at http://www.uni-muenster.de/imperia/md/content/transpose/publikationen/buerger_working_paper_3.pdf). This project is funded within the framework of the ‘Social-ecological Research’ programme of the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research.     

Auswirkungen der europäischen Energiepolitik auf den deutschen Atomausstieg

After the election of the new German government on September 27th, 2009, the nuclear power phase-out decision appears back on top of the political agenda. Hence, an up to date survey of all relevant arguments seems absolutely necessary. In that matter, the scope should not remain national but should also take the European dimension into account.On the European level, a position in favour of nuclear power becomes apparent. Recent political decisions among the 27 member states show a renaissance of atomic energy. EU-Parliament, EU-Commission and EU-Council have all voted for the extensive, long term use of nuclear power in Europe. With its phase-out decision still valid, Germany is part of a minority in Europe.Germany is part of a European market for electricity whose national barriers will blur more and more in the future to form a fully integrated pan-European market in the end. Since nuclear power will provide a major share of the European electricity generation mix, Germany will always be supplied with atomic energy in the long term. This is imperative, regardless of nuclear power plants operating within the borders of Germany or not. Shutting down these facilities in Germany will hence not make the risks associated with atomic energy disappear. It will only add energy-technical challenges to assure long-term supply security. Thus, the new German government should withdraw the phase-out decision.     

Die Marktprämie im EEG 2012: Ein sinnvoller Beitrag zur Markt- und Systemintegration erneuerbarer Energien?

With the share of renewable energies within the electricty sector rising, improving their market integration (i.e. inclusion in the steering and remuneration processes of the electricity market) and system integration (i.e. enhanced responsibility for grid stability) is of increasing importance. To transform the energy system efficiently while ensuring security of supply, it is necessary to increase the alignment of renewable electricity production with short- and long-term market signals. The German Renewable Energy Sources Act 2012 introduced the market premium to provide market experience to renewable plant operators and incentives for demand-oriented electricity production. Shortly after its introduction, the instrument is already being criticised as ineffective and expensive. Building on early experiences, this article examines whether the market premium in its current design improves market and/or system integration, and if it seems suitable in principle to contribute to these aims (effectiveness). Also, potential efficiency gains and additional costs of “administering integration” are discussed (efficiency). While market integration in a strict sense (i.e. exposing renewables to price risks) is not the purpose of the market premium, it has successfully increased participation in direct marketing. However, windfall profits are high, and the benefits of gradually leading plant operators towards the market are questionable. Incentives for demand-oriented electricity production are established, but they prove insufficient particularly in the case of intermittent renewable energy sources. A continuation of the instrument in its current form therefore does not seem recommendable. To conclude, potential alternative solutions are presented.     

Beitrag von technologischen und strukturellen Veränderungen im Energiesystem der EU-27 zur Erreichung ambitionierter Klimaschutzziele

To stabilise the concentration of GHG (Greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere to a level of 450ppm (parts per million), a strong climate policy in the EU-27 will be required. The target is achievable through a 71% reduction of GHG emissions from 1990 emission levels by the year 2050. With the regionalised Pan-European TIMES energy system model, the role of technologies with regard to efficiency improvement, fuel switching and energy saving measures will be analysed under such an emission reduction target. The Pan-European TIMES model illustrates in detail the whole energy system of the different member states of the EU-27 plus Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. The limited resource and import potentials of different energy carriers, the competition of the use of energy carriers among different sectors and the country specific differences in energy demand will be taken into account. The results show that the energy consumption of the EU is influenced rather by political targets and positions related to climate protection, security of supply and the use of nuclear energy than by the available technological options. Under a climate protection scenario with restricted use of nuclear energy, the most commonly used options are to increase the use of renewable energy in all sectors, produce electricity in combination with carbon capture and storage (CCS) and to increase the use of electricity over other fuel sources in the demand sectors. Furthermore, technological improvements will be required throughout the entire energy system if political targets are to be successfully realised.     

Energiewende: Alles eine Frage der Partizipation? Governance-Herausforderungen zwischen Zentralität und Dezentralität

The interaction of centralised and decentralised elements is not only a challenge for the technical und functional implementation of the energy transition, but also for the political and social assignment of developing adequate governance strategies for future energy systems. While “participation” is of capital importance for all governance approaches mediating centralising and decentralising trends, it is far from clear, how participation is to be realized in order to promote energy transition and avoiding pitfalls and flaws of participative decision making processes. Against the backdrop of a multi-dimensional understanding of “participation” comprising procedural, factual, legitimatory and meta-reflective functions, the paper considers the tense relations of participation and efficiency, legitimacy and professionalized expertise, thereby identifying structural challenges for participation in democratic societies. Finally, some suggestions are made, how the governance of the energy transition can be shaped in the future.     

Prognose der Day-Ahead Wind- und Photovoltaikstromerzeugung – Einflussgrößen und Zuverlässigkeit

In the future, the percentage of renewable energies in the electricity generation is expected to increase continuously. Especially weather-dependent wind and solar power plays a substantial role. These energy sources are partly characterized by a fluctuating and imprecisely predictable power generation. To cover the residual load and to balance the forecast errors a rising number of flexible producers and consumers will be needed in the future. This is necessary to ensure the high security of supply of the German electricity grid.Against this background, the objective of the following investigation is to analyse the day-ahead forecasting quality of the feed-in from wind and photovoltaic systems in the control areas of Germany’s transmission system operators and in the entire area of Germany for the years 2010 to 15. The aim of this analysis is to identify the crucial parameters that influence the forecast error. Subsequently, the share of the wind and photovoltaic power forecast which can be considered as reliably predictable for the following day is estimated. In addition, the increase in this reliable prediction through a higher level of detail in the assessment of the forecast error is quantified. Based on these results, the need of flexibilities through the weather-dependent electricity supply from wind and photovoltaic systems can be estimated, and the impact on the electricity system can be evaluated.     

Bedeutung von CO2-Transport- und Speicheroptionen im europäischen Energiesystem

Aiming the stabilisation of the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere at 450 ppm, a strong climate policy in the EU-27 will be required. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and the building up of a CO₂ pipeline system will be one option to avoid climate change. The analysis of the potential CO₂ storage options in Europe shows a huge potential in the North Sea and their neighbouring countries and only less potentials in the southern European countries. A scenario analysis using the European energy system model TIMES PanEU shows that the installation of CO₂ transport pipelines for cross boarder exchange of CO₂ from power plants located next to the boarder could be one possible infrastructure solution. This solution is a cost efficient option which will be used mainly by the North Sea neighbouring countries (Germany, UK, the Netherlands, Denmark) and Poland. A central pipeline grid in the North Sea for the usage of huge storage options like the Utsira formation will be important in the future for countries with limited CO₂ storage capacities (like Belgium or the Netherlands). If cheap storage options like onshore Aquifers are not available, the design of central CO₂ pipeline grids has a strong impact on the power plant structure, the electricity and CO₂ certificate price. Based on a limited availability of onshore CO₂ storages the electricity price will increase by up to 16 € 2007/MWh and the CO₂-certificate price will rise by additional 35 € 2007/t CO₂ in 2050.     

Start der Diskussion zur Ausgestaltung des künftigen Regel- und Ausgleichsenergiesystems für den deutschen Gasmarkt

Whilst the conditions for access to the German gas networks have been largely defined the rules for balancing and imbalance pricing are still intransparent and inconsistent. Following the recent publication of a study on behalf of the German regulator in November 2007 the German gas industry has now entered into official discussions about the future organisation of balancing mechanisms for the German gas market, with the aim of ensuring non-discriminatory network access. The objective of this study was to create a comprehensive basis for discussion and to suggest both a market-based model for the procurement of balancing energy by network operators and the non-discriminatory and transparent pricing of imbalances on the shippers’ side, taking account of the specific conditions of the German gas market. This paper explains the options that are currently discussed, provides relevant background and summarises the status quo.     

Europäische Klimapolitik: Zwischen Anspruch und Wirklichkeit

In order to restrict the risks of anthropogenic climate change to a ?tolerable“ extent, the fourth assessment report of the United Nations’ International Panel on Climate Change calls for a trend reversal towards globally decreasing greenhouse gas emissions within the next two decades which ultimately must lead to a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions until the mid of the century by 50 percent as compared to 2000 emission levels. The European Union claims a lead of a role in climate policy with the objective to push forward international negotiations on far-reaching emission reduction commitments with other important industrialized and developing regions. The EU’s credibility as a leading force will hinge crucially on how successfully it can fulfill its emission reduction obligations under the Kyoto Protocol by means of market-based environmental policy, in particular the exemplary operation of the EU emission trading system. Against this background, the following article provides a critical assessment of the EU’s climate policy.     

Markt- und Systemintegration von erneuerbaren Energien im Rahmen der Systemtransformation – Ein Beitrag zur definitorischen Abgrenzung

The reconstruction of the electricity system is one of the main challenges of the German energy transition (Energiewende). The expansion of renewable electricity generation should enable the phase out of nuclear and fossil power generators in the long run. The Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz) aims at increasing renewable generation up to a share of at least 80?% in gross electricity consumption by the year 2050. There are many possible ways to reach this target. Today, the characteristics of the future energy systems become apparent through the legal framework and long term energy scenarios.Economic, social and regulatory hurdles will need to be overcome to enable the transition of the electricity system. In this context, specific measures are evaluated with respect to their contribution on the system transformation, system integration and market integration. Up until now a consistent framework for evaluating political actions and scientific that should effectively support the energy political objectives is not present. The concepts of power system transformation, power system integration and market integration are differentiated and defined to close this gap. Based on this framework, a practical example is evaluated. The exact definitions will help to objectify the political and scientific debate. Furthermore, it contributes to develop regulatory and market mechanisms.     

Und Aktion! – Konzeptualisierung der Rolle individuellen Akteurshandelns in sozio-technischen Transitionen am Beispiel der regionalen Energiewende im bayerischen Allgäu

The German “Energiewende” is one of the most ambitious societal transition projects in recent times. It causes fundamental political and economic changes in the energy system in Germany and the whole of Europe. These great societal and technological changes of the current energy regime are of particular interest for research on sustainability transitions. In this research strand, however, the role of individual agency for socio-technical transitions is hardly considered. What drives actors who decisively pushed the regional energy transition? Which strategies and types of action do they choose to foster the transition? How do individual strategies and actions depend on the socio-technical system environment and how does the socio-technical system environment react to the individual actions? To analyse these questions, we apply the Human-Environment Systems (HES) Framework (Scholz, 2011) for the first time to socio-technical systems. Based on an exemplary analysis of the regional energy transition in the Allgäu region in Germany, we propose an adaptation of the HES Framework for socio-technical systems. Finally, we reflect on how the adapted HES framework for socio-technical systems can contribute to a better understanding of individual agency in systemic transitions.     

Untersuchung verschiedener Handelsstrategien für Wind- und Solarenergie unter Berücksichtigung der EEG 2012 Novellierung

The new EEG 2012 law opens up for more parties to participate in the trading of wind and solar power, because of the bonus system that now compensates everybody for all market relevant costs, not only the Transmission System Operators. Therefore it can be expected, that the trading of renewable energies by private parties will increase. One of the central questions to be answered is how efficient does a balance responsible party have to be to stay competitive also with a small pool. The quantification of balance costs for different trading strategies is however complex and non-trivial. We propose a methodology in this study that accounts for this fact. Additionally, we analyse and show the requirements and the monetary value of Intra-Day trading for the handling of wind and solar power. The trading strategies proposed in this article make use of an uncertainty band around the forecasts used in the Intra-Day, in order to avoid double trading and thereby reducing the total balancing volume and the associated costs.     

Staat versus Markt: Konsumentenpräferenzen und die Förderung erneuerbarer Energien

This paper presents a set of artefacutal field experiments on individual preferences and willingness to pay, respectively, for the consumption of green electricity. Based on an economic model of individual preferences for the provision of public goods, the design of our experiments involved different scenarios: subjects had to decide about their individual spending on green electricity as well as about the level of public subsidies for green electricity. Unlike hypothetical empirical methods, the experiments involved an incentive mechanism, i.e. subjects had to face the monetary consequences of their decisions. Our empirical results are distinct from those of other studies. It seems that the market potential of green electricity is overestimated at present. Hence, the market will not release the public in financing subsidies in this field. The conclusion can be drawn that individuals prefer binding collective contributions rather than individual market-driven activities. However, we contradict the standard explanation of political economy that such a kind of preference for regulatory instruments may be motivated by cost-illusion. Subjects were willing to bear far higher taxes as compared to the price mark-up they were willing to pay for green electricity offered by the market.     

„Collaborative Governance“ – ein neues Konzept für die Regulierung der europäischen Strom- und Gasmärkte?

Current British and American publications about the liberalization of electricity and gas markets demand a paradigm shift in the regulation of energy networks. These publications can be subsumed under the scientific debate about “collaborative governance” in the USA. They call for an integration of network users and consumers into the regulatory process. Their philosophy resembles the philosophy of the negotiated third party access in Germany from 1998 till 2005. Their regulatory strategy might be more effective than the actual European “command and control” strategy in establishing competitive energy markets. This article examines and evaluates these publications and their regulatory strategy.     

Handel mit Grünstromzertifikaten bei Existenz von Emissionszielen: Gewinner und Verlierer in der EU

Within the development goal for the use of renewable energies in the EU, after the publishing of the directive proposal from the European Commission on January 23, an intensive discussion is taking place as to if and how the trade of green electricity certificates should occur. A motion from the opposition in the Bundestag explicitly asks to favour the proposal. Recently the opinion of the EU parliament was submitted that proposes numerous changes. The present article leaves the discussion of details about the possible organization of such a system and analyses the impacts of a green electricity certificate trade with emission targets on state level. It is shown that with the currently discussed conditions the Member States have few incentives to buy green electricity certificates as the overall costs to fulfil the emission and green electricity targets could rise. The national fulfilment of green electricity targets could therefore be cheaper in an overall view. However, it is unclear if such plans are compatible with the rules of the EU internal market. Therefore there could be “forced losers” among EU member states.     

Energiewende und Übertragungsnetzausbau: Sind Erdkabel ein Instrument zur Steigerung der gesellschaftlichen Akzeptanz des Leitungsbaus? Eine empirische Untersuchung auf Basis der Kontingenten Bewertungsmethode

Transmission network development has led to protests throughout Germany. Many studies present underground cables as a means to increase public agreement to transmission line construction and network development. This paper verifies this thesis analyzing the willingness-to-pay of private households for underground cable employment, which allows for a distinct analysis of strategic behavior and opportunity costs that is omitted in classic questionnaire designs. The results of a contingent valuation study conducted in November and December 2012 in four regions of Germany, which are affected by transmission line development in different ways, are presented. At first glance, an analysis of 1.003 household responses confirms common findings with a majority of households favoring underground cables (about 60 %), albeit preferences vary strongly between sample regions. Willingness-to-pay, however, relativizes this result. A near share of 50 % of households voting for underground cables is not willing to accept an increase in electricity prices to finance respective projects (free riders). The fact that positive willingness-to-pay does not correlate positively with increasing lengths of underground cables in 60 % of cases underlines that underground cables are not supported unconditionally. All-in-all, a flat public approval of underground cable technology cannot be presumed based on WTP-evaluation. Preferences about underground cables and corresponding WTP are explained with demographic characteristics and attitudes using regression models. Fundamental thoughts on energy- and environmental policies do not serve to explain responses. Instead, regional factors and subjective opinions on how to finance such kind of infrastructure measures influence preferences for underground cables.     

Potenziale zur Erhöhung des regionalen Markenkerns im Stromvertrieb am Beispiel der regionalen Grünstromkennzeichnung gemäß EEG 2017: Teil 2 (Multikriterien-Analyse)

In this paper – complementing an earlier article on this topic (Part 1: Basics and Analysis of Potentials) – we perform a Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), also engaging decision-makers in the analytical process. From the MCDA we derive recommendations to act with regard to the alternatives for regional green power marketing (cf. Part 1). For the MCDA we have developed a hybrid multicriteria approach, which enables to pool the advantages of two methods. Specifically, for the valuation of alternatives and criteria weighting we use the so-called Multi-Attribute Global Inference of Quality (MAGIQ) method, whereas the computation of the analytical results was performed with the help of an optimized Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) method. The results of the MCDA show that the regional green power labeling according to EEG 2017 can be used for upgrading the options already existing before the introduction of the EEG 2017 for the marketing of regionally generated electricity. From the MCDA conducted we find that those green power marketing models which combine the regional green power labeling according to the EEG 2017 with previously existing options rank first to third.