The Impact of Japanese Economic Cooperation on Asian Economic Development

The main objective of this paper is to overview the developments of Japan's ODA and assess, in a quantitative manner, their economic impacts on Asian countries. The benefits of two alternative measures—one from capital formation by Japan's ODA loans and the other from import liberalization in the Japanese market—are compared. Those economy-wide impacts of aid and trade on six Asian countries—China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam—are estimated by a CGE model of global trade, incorporating a certain mechanism of dynamic capital formation. Japan's ODA loans are effective for economic growth in the countries. Real GDP gains range from 0.1 to 1.6% annually. Trade liberalization is efficient to improve economic welfare. Utility gains range from 0.2 to 1.9%, which exceed those on account of Japan's ODA. Variations in those economic impacts are much more significantly observed when examined by sector.     

邻里资本视角下的城市住区空间变革

对当下城市住区邻里社会资本的缺失现状和背景成因进行了探讨,揭示出当前住区空间变异与邻里社会网络退化的相互消极影响,在此基础上提出必须重新审视城市住区发展的价值取向,并结合住区空间营造提出变革策略.     

Macroeconomic effects of the regional allocation of public capital formation

This paper proposes a multi-regional, general equilibrium model with capital accumulation to analyze the economic impact of the spatial distribution of public capital formation. This model is calibrated and solved by using data for the Spanish economy in order to simulate some comparative dynamic exercises of fiscal policy changes. These analyses illustrate the role that public investment plays in generating the existing imbalances in regional development. This is done by computing the spillover effects and the opportunity costs of regional distribution of public investment. Finally, two rankings of regional priorities in public investment can be derived: one based on the criterion of reducing regional disparities, and another based on an efficiency criterion.     

试论企业最优资本结构的确定

资本结构是否合理对企业经济效益将产生重大影响。本文拟通过数学模型的建立,从最大化企业运营效用的角度探讨了企业最优资本结构(即借入资本与自有资本的比例)的取值区间,并利用模型对湖北省上市公司资本结构的合理性作出初步判断,结果显示,湖北省多数企业的资本结构仍是合理的。同时还对不合理的企业资本结构的改进提出了政策建议。     

CGE EVALUATION OF A UNIVERSITY'S EFFECTS ON A REGIONAL ECONOMY: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF EXPENDITURE AND KNOWLEDGE IMPACTS

In recent years many universities have commissioned studies of the effects of their institutions on their local economies. Typically, these impact studies have concentrated on the demand-side stimuli to the regional economy that the university generates. Normally, the studies are undertaken with comparative-static input-output models. The present study employs a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model to investigate supply-side as well as demand-side effects. There are a range of supply-side effects that have been investigated in the spatial econometrics literature. The supply-side impacts of the university that we examine in particular are a rise in the average skill level of the local workforce, and successful R&D outcomes. CGE modelling allows simulation of the associated productivity effects, while the dynamic features of the model allow for consequent effects on a region's population and capital stock growth rates to be taken into account.     

Information technologies, embodiment and growth

This paper studies the conditions under which an IT revolution may occur and have permanent effects on long-term growth. To this end, we construct a multi-sectoral growth model with endogenous embodied technical progress. The R&D sector expands the range of softwares. The capital sector produces efficient capital combining hardware with available softwares. Technological progress is therefore embodied: New softwares can only be run on the most recent generations of hardware. The new softwares are copyrighted during a fixed period of time. First, we analytically characterize the balanced growth paths of the model. Then we focus on the dynamic response of the economy to technological shocks. Substitution effects favorable to the IT sectors are shown to arise when positive supply shocks affect the production of efficient capital and/or the creation of new softwares. Positive shocks specific to the capital sector are unable to produce effects on long-term growth, in contrast to the shocks specific to the R&D sector.     

Implementing natural capital credit risk assessment in agricultural lending

Agriculture has critical impacts and dependencies on natural capital, and agricultural lenders are therefore exposed to natural capital credit risk through their loans to farmers. Currently, however, lenders lack any detailed guidance for assessing natural capital credit risk in agriculture and are challenged by the fact that the relevant material risks vary considerably by agricultural sector and geography. This paper develops a natural capital credit risk assessment framework based on a bottom‐up review of the material risks associated with natural capital impacts and dependencies for Australian beef production. It demonstrates that implementing natural capital credit risk assessment is feasible in agricultural lending, using a combination of quantitative and qualitative inputs. Implementation challenges include the complexity and interconnectedness of natural capital processes, data availability and cost, spatial data analytical capacity, and the need for transformational change, both within lending organisations and across the banking sector.     

城市空间结构理论——单中心城市静态模型

首先介绍了在西方城市经济理论中被广泛接受的单中心城市空间结构静态模型。然后,利用比较静态分析方法(comparativestaticanalysis),分析区位、居民收入及交通费用(区位,居民收入及交通费用为模型的外生变量(exogenousvariable))对价格和房屋消费量(价格和房屋消费量为模型的内生变量(endogenousvariable))的影响。最后,理论模型通过引进一般住房生产函数,推导出土地价格及资本密度(即建筑高度)的空间变化规律。通过对城市经济模型进一步分析(对极值条件或解的微分解析分析)得出地价(地租),资本密度(或称容积率),人口密度的空间分布规律,这些规律对城市规划,城市政策,引进市场原则和价格机制来提高城市土地利用效率都有理论指导意义。     

Treatment of Fixed Capital in the Sraffian Framework and in the Theory of Dynamic Input–Output Models

This paper is concerned with a comparison of the treatment of fixed capital in some multi-sectoral models. First, the dynamic Leontief model is investigated. Scrutiny shows that this model suffers from conceptual misconceptions which result from restrictive assumptions concerning full-capacity production and the transferability of capital in place, and from the definition of technical coefficients. Whereas most input–output (IO) models are based on the assumption of infinite life of fixed capital, the Sraffian concept is to treat used fixed capital items as ‘intermediate’ goods, which appear as joint products until they are worn out. To compare that approach with some IO models, an application of the concept of a ‘plant’ is provided. Finally, it is demonstrated that Leontief's model, as well as some recent generalizations, are special cases of a Sraffa-von Neumann type of model.     

Spatial econometric analysis of spatial general equilibrium

A structural spatial econometric model for nine regions of Israel is estimated using non-stationary spatial panel data during 1987–2015. The model focuses on the relation between regional markets in labour, housing and capital when there is imperfect internal migration between regions, when capital is imperfectly mobile between regions, and when building contractors operate across regions. Since the regional panel data are non-stationary, the econometric methodology is based on spatial panel cointegration. The estimated model is used to simulate the temporal and spatial propagation of regional shocks induced, for example, by regional policy (land for housing, regional investment grants). Impulse responses are temporally and spatially state dependent. They are also highly persistent because of longevity in housing and capital.     

Estimating and interpreting internal migration flows in Russia by accounting for network effects

The present article follows two objectives. First, to apply a recently developed spatial interaction model and discuss its power in explaining social developments. Second, to obtain information on internal migration's determinants in Russia by taking into account that its eastern and western regions differ in many respects. Two alternative panel specifications are considered, labelled “spatial interaction specification with exogenous spatial lags” and “gravity-type specification with network effects”. While both specifications are designed to capture the impacts of neighbouring regions in migration dynamics, they differ with respect to the implementation of fixed effects. It is argued that neighbourhood impacts manifest themselves either as spillover effects, which amplify a variable's impact, or competition effects, which attenuate them. The results show that variables indeed differ from each other in these respects, demonstrating how migration patterns are subject to events beyond the directly involved regions, and that these are furthermore influenced by the distances between regions. In addition, the results provide further evidence that migration determinants differ for Eastern and Western Russia.     

Spatial agglomeration and endogenous growth

This paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model with spatial interactions in which a human capital externality is the centripetal force towards agglomeration. The resource cost of transportation is, on the other hand, the main centrifugal force, preventing a city from growing unboundedly. A central feature of our analysis is the dynamic interaction between (perpetual) economic growth and (bounded) city growth. We examine the socially optimal and the decentralized growth rates as well as city sizes. In the decentralized environment, individuals under-invest, whereas cities are under-populated. We show how public policies may enable a decentralized city to attain the socially optimal allocation.     

An adjustment cost model of long-term employment in Japan

A dynamic factor demand model is presented which pays special attention to the prevalence of a long-term employment relationship in Japan. The model is based on the representation of technology by a variable cost function with adjustment costs for employment and capital stock, where the variable cost consists of the sum of overtime costs and materials costs. With employment being quasi-fixed and scheduled hours institutionally regulated, short-run adjustments are mostly made by overtime hours. Application to a time-series data on the Japanese electrical machinery industry indicates quasi-fixity of capital and employment and reproduces short-run overshooting of overtime hours to compensate for the sluggish adjustment of employment.     

Spatial growth with exogenous saving rates

Economic growth has traditionally been analyzed in the temporal domain, while the spatial dimension is captured by cross-country income differences. Data suggest great inequality in income per capita across countries, and a slight but noticeable increase in inequality across nations between 1960 and 2000. Seeking to explore the mechanism underlying the temporal evolution of the cross sectional distribution of economies, we develop a spatial growth model where saving rates are exogenous. Capital movements across locations are governed by a mechanism under which capital moves toward locations of relatively higher marginal productivity, with a velocity determined by the existing stock of capital. This augments the capital accumulation equation by a nonlinear diffusion term. Our results suggest that under diminishing returns, the growth process leads to a stable spatially nonhomogeneous distribution for per capita capital and income in the long run. Insufficient savings may lead to the emergence of persistent poverty cores where capital stock is depleted in some locations.     

Trust or bust: Growth effects of knowledge,human and social capital revisited

Social capital consists of trust, collective values, and shared norms. It helps society to work efficiently and, hence, promotes knowledge accumulation and growth. This paper identifies the contribution of social capital to differences in total factor productivity among European subnational regions, but, unlike other studies, it focuses on the effects of interregional differences in social capital. To do so, the paper employs a spatial Durbin model of a social-capital extended Cobb-Douglas production function. Our results suggest that transfers of knowledge might be secondary to the presence of collectivism and human capital in knowledge-generating regions. Although knowledge can cross boundaries, an absence of skills and trust limits local growth capacity. Our estimations also suggest the presence of gravity effects emanating from social and human capital in which some regions lose against others nearby that have more abundant social and human capital.     

Comovements and heterogeneity in the euro area analyzed in a non‐stationary dynamic factor model

This paper establishes stylized facts on comovements and heterogeneity of individual euro area countries' output and price developments in the past two decades. For this purpose, a non‐stationary structural dynamic factor model is fitted to a large dataset of euro area macroeconomic variables. The main results are as follows. Both common factors and idiosyncratic components are important in explaining individual countries' output and price developments in the euro area and are also both very persistent. Idiosyncratic shocks and adjustments to these shocks are mainly responsible for cross‐country heterogeneity. The asymmetric transmission of common shocks plays a minor role. Finally, there is no strong evidence that some common shocks lead to greater heterogeneity than others. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors

This paper presents a dynamic portfolio credit model following the regulatory framework, using macroeconomic and latent risk factors to predict the aggregate loan portfolio loss in a banking system. The latent risk factors have three levels: global across the entire banking system, parent-sectoral for the intermediate loan sectors and sector-specific for the individual loan sectors. The aggregate credit loss distribution of the banking system over a risk horizon is generated by Monte Carlo simulation, and a quantile estimator is used to produce the aggregate risk measure and economic capital. The risk contributions of the individual sectors and risk factors are measured by combining the Hoeffding decomposition with the Euler capital allocation rule. For the U.S. banking system, we find that the real GDP growth rate, the global and sector-wide frailty risk factors and their spillovers significantly affect loan defaults, and the impacts of the frailty factors are not only economy-wide but also sector-specific. We also find that the frailty risk factors make more significant risk contributions to the aggregate portfolio risk than the macroeconomic factors, while the macroeconomic factors help to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the credit risk forecasts.     

世界连接CGE模型方法、研制与应用

随着世界经济一体化和空间经济学的日益发展,系统模型方法在国家或区域间经济联动方面的扩展和深化研究正在显现出巨大的应用价值。本文首先开发一个世界连接可计算一般均衡模型,科学揭示各经济体的运行特征,为定量剖析世界范围内各经济体的经济增长、结构变动方面提供一个系统分析框架：一方面在模型的理论框架中,分析了世界CGE模型各个模块的构建思想和对应的主要方程及其特征;另一方面建立了世界连接社会核算矩阵。然后通过动态模拟分析,检验链接模式和国家间经济联系,以及应用于各经济体政策变化的综合影响评价。     

Fundamental Tax Reform and Residential Housing

The impact of consumption-based, fundamental Federal tax reform on the housing market has been a controversial and difficult topic. We employ a dynamic, numerical simulation model of the aggregate housing market to augment our understanding of the key forces at work in the short-run and over longer periods. This approach suggests that integrating the short-run and long-term impacts of tax reform leads to the possibility that there will be relatively modest impacts on the nominal values of existing housing. The results indicate that an important topic for future research is the elasticity of housing supply in the short run and long run.     

上市公司资本结构调整速度的区域差异研究

本文针对上市公司资本结构的影响因素及调整速度问题,通过构建动态面板模型,采用广义矩估计(GMM)方法,选取1999～2011年非金融上市公司的财务数据为样本进行研究.研究结果表明,中国不同地区上市公司的资本结构不仅受到公司特征、宏观经济因素的影响,还受制度环境因素的影响;制度环境对资本结构的影响程度及资本结构调整速度存在区域差异;调整速度较快的地区呈“带状”分布在中国东部沿海和中部地区.