Predictive and analytical investigation of the intersectoral ratios dynamics in the Russian economy real sector

A balance-based econometric model is presented that has been developed for the analysis of the dynamics and structure of the intersectoral relations in the domestic economy; the methodology and results of its use in applied economic calculations are described.     

The situation in the Russian economy

This article, written for a Project LINK international conference, looks at the medium-term growth trends of the Russian economy and analyzes the stability potential and crisis points of the prevailing economy reproduction model.The forecasting part examines measures used in three growth scenarios: “economic activism of the state,” “support of business” (both subject to a lasting favourable foreign economic situation), and “adaptive” (for the case of a fall in oil prices). The authors come to the conclusion that in the current situation, a greater growth potential is associated with the scenario of “economic activism of the state,” which envisions, in particular, investment in projects lessening infrastructural constraints on growth.     

中俄经贸合作对策研究

2004年中俄贸易额突破了200亿美元的大关,这意味着中俄两国的经济贸易合作进入了一个新的历史阶段,驶入了加速发展的快车道.在这种新的形势下,我们应该抓住机遇,积极利用原有的基础,并创造各种有利条件,选择合理的途径,进一步开拓俄罗斯市场,继续为扩大中俄经贸合作的规模、深化经贸合作水平而努力.     

Innovation-technological development of the Russian economy: Prospects and conditions

The present state of the innovation-technological potential of Russia and the feasibility of its use for modernizing the national economy are discussed. Alternative strategies of technological development of the economy are validated, the merits of a starting resource-innovation strategy are described, and the stages of its transformation into an innovation-technological strategy are proposed. Problem situations are identified, possible solutions are proposed, and conditions for changeover to an innovation-technological strategy of Russia’s economic development are formed.     

Employment and effective employment in the Russian economy

This article deals with the problems of measuring and forecasting employment and labor productivity in the Russian economy. A necessity of forming employment calculation indices, which would to a greater degree reflect the real labor costs by industry for 1991–2010, is discovered. A method of calculating alternative (conditional effective) employment is offered.     

ICT investment and internationalization of the Russian economy

In this paper the influence of ICT investments on the international activities of Russia is analyzed. Firstly, ICT investments are considered as a factor of the international competitiveness of the Russian economy (in comparison with some other countries). Dynamics of both export volumes and openness of national economies are used as the main criteria for comparison. Then, the role of ICT in the development of international activities on the regional level is analysed. Cluster analysis is performed for the set of data on the Russian regions. Finally, the accession of Russia to the WTO is considered in the context of the development of the ICT sector and the international activities of the Russian economy.     

Forecasting recruitment needs of the Russian economy: Qualitative aspects

The article presents a new mechanism for translating labor market’s needs to the vocational education system that promotes the provision of long-term personnel requirements within the framework of the implementation of competence-based educational programs.     

Labor shortage in the Russian economy: A macroeconomic estimate

The problem of future labor shortage under the demographic crisis in Russia is posed and considered. Its quantitative estimation for the all-Russia labor market is made, and the results are compared with regard to different scenarios of socioeconomic development. The scale of the future labor shortage in aggregative regional (federal districts) and sectoral labor markets is estimated. Qualitative characteristics of the main aftereffects of the onset of labor shortage and ways of mitigating it are discussed.     

走有中国特色的B2B电子商务之路

新经济下的企业竞争 ,关键在于人才的竞争。这就要求我们针对新经济的特点 ,进行人力资源管理的创新。本文从人力资源管理面临的新问题出发 ,提出在核心理念、重心、中心任务、形式和内容五个方面开展人力资源管理的创新。     

Long-term development prospects of the Russian information and communications sector

This paper presents a development forecast for the Russian information and communications sector. Two scenarios-inert and innovative investment—are explored for each period. According to the results of our study, in the period from 2010 to 2030, the output of the Russian information and communications sector will increase by a factor of 3.52–4 under the investment scenario and by a factor of 2–2.5 under the inert scenario. This is due to the limited private and public resources that could be invested in the sector on a large scale, as well as to the absence of basic innovation in the area of information and communication technologies, which could have a significant economic impact and provide a basis for a new technological order. It is concluded that the information and communications sector is running out of its market expansion potential.     

我国中小企业的内在规模经济和外在规模不经济

在我国,对中小企业的作用和地位的认识经历了一个过程,对中小企业的扶持和管理方式的认识也经历了一个过程,本文重点分析中小企业的内在规模经济因素和外在规模不经济因素,以此从一个侧面认识中小企业的存在和衰败理论以及政策扶持的角度。     

Structural-technological modernization of the Russian economy: Goals,constraints, and risks

The paper is devoted to development of a strategy of structural-technological modernization of the Russian economy. Examples of certain substantive considerations that help obtain a more adequate picture of interdependent positive and negative changes inherent in processes of socioeconomic and technological development are discussed.     

Energy intensity and energy efficiency of the Russian economy: an analysis and forecast

The energy intensity indices of the Russian GDP are presented in a form that allows comparison with similar indicators of other countries. The forecast shows that the energy efficiency of the Russian economy will be approaching that of Canada but will still remain significantly lower by 2010.     

黑龙江省对俄经贸合作面临八大发展机遇

当前,黑龙江省对俄经贸合作面临诸多优势.主要有:中俄两国经贸合作步入了历史最好发展时期;双方经贸合作环境大为改善;两国毗邻地区的边境经贸合作再掀高潮;俄经济强势增长,投资环境逐渐改善;我国各级政府十分重视对俄经贸合作;振兴东北老工业基地带来巨大商机;黑龙江省对俄经贸合作的地方优势突出;大通道建设成效显著,服务能力和水平明显提高.我们应充分开发和利用这些机遇,推进对俄经贸合作的战略升级.     

Inflation and problems of balanced development of the Russian economy

Problems of inflation from the perspective of balanced economic development of the Russian Federation are considered. The consequences of policy decisions taken in the financial sector and real economy are analyzed based on actual data. The necessity of carrying out such an analysis at the stage of developing policy decisions is rationalized.     

浅析水资源与区域循环经济发展的关系

发展区域循环经济是实现整个社会可持续发展的重要步骤,而水资源是区域能够顺利发展循环经济的关键性要素。通过探讨水资源与区域循环经济发展之间的关系,提出了结合水资源优化配置发展区域循环经济的途径。     

The crisis in the context of the present and the future of the Russian economy

This paper investigates the decline in imports of most important types of investment and consumer goods in 2012–2015 and the changes in the geography of imports, which affect the innovation potential of investments. The impact of these changes on the current standard of living of the population and the future modernization of the economy has been shown. The quantitative assessment of the impact of sanctions has been provided. Directions of competitive import substitution have been formulated.     

Recent trends and factors of resource intensity in the agricultural sector

The article discusses some of the trends and factors reducing the resource intensity of the agricultural sector on the basis of its modernization in the medium and long term in the context of the growing openness of the Russian economy.     

The urban informal sector in Uruguay: Its internal structure,characteristics, and effects

The literature on Third World urbanization has focused increasingly on the informal sector as a mechanism to explain, first, the survival strategies of the poor excluded from regular employment and, second, the strategies of formal firms to bypass regulatory constraints and reduce costs. This paper pursues these lines of research in a special context, namely that of Uruguay, a small country which followed a protective labor policy for many years, but reversed it during the 1970s and early 1980s. Data come from a sample of 700 households in Montevideo, which are representative of the low-income neighborhoods that comprise approximately two-thirds of the city's population. Interviews were held in 1983–1984. The analysis focuses on the following issues: (1) the proportion of individuals and households who participate in the informal economy; (2) the types of informality that exist in both principal and secondary occupations; (3) the effects of informal employment on income; (4) differences in age, sex and education between different types of workers; (5) changes in informal employment over time. Implications of findings for general definitions and hypotheses about the informal sector are examined; the relationship of results to the neoliberal experiments attempted in Uruguay between 1973 and 1984 is discussed.