中国城市养老机构的兴起:发展与公平问题

利用2009-2010年在南京市和天津市对养老机构的调查数据,描述了养老机构在两市的发展态势,比较了公办和民办机构在入住老人的健康状况及机构特征方面的差异。近10年来养老机构在两市迅猛增长,且以民办机构为主导。政府财政投入在两市公办机构的日常收入来源中占了相当的比重,而对民办机构的财政补贴则微乎其微。公办机构平均规模较大,在入住率上也远超民办机构。两市公办机构入住老人比民办机构入住老人在总体上更健康。公办机构在决定收住对象时比民办机构有更强的选择性。公众在享有现存养老机构资源时面临着机会不平等的问题。政府应确保在公办机构中公平、合理地分配公共服务资源,以最大程度地彰显其公益性,同时也应着力扶持民办机构,促进二者在社会化养老服务中公平竞争、协调发展。     

Means‐Tested Long‐Term Care and Family Transfers

One of the pervasive problems with means‐tested public long‐term care programs is their inability to prevent individuals who could afford private long‐term services from taking advantage of public care. They often manage to elude the means‐test net through ‘strategic impoverishment’. We show in a simple model how this problem comes about, how it affects welfare and how it can be mitigated.     

Temporary Disability Insurance and Labor Supply: Evidence from a Natural Experiment*

Most developed countries have compulsory insurance programs for temporary disability, that is, cash benefits for non‐work‐related sickness. Despite the economic significance of these programs, little is known about their effects on work absenteeism or labor supply. We exploit a policy reform that consisted of the abolishment of a waiting day together with an increase of cash benefits for short sick leaves. We find that the total number of days of sickness absence was reduced by the reform, which is likely due to the fact that the abolishment of the waiting period made it less costly for workers to be absent for short periods.     

Tax Reform,Sector‐specific Labor Supply and Welfare Effects*

This paper focuses in particular on the 1992 tax reform in Norway. In this reform the top marginal tax rates were cut considerably. We find that the impact on overall labor supply is rather modest, but these modest changes shadow for stronger sectoral changes. The tax reform stimulated the women to shift their labor from the public to the private sector and to work longer hours. A calculation of mean compensated variation, calculated within the framework of a random utility model, shows that the richest households benefited far more from the 1992 tax reform than did the poorest households.     

Optimal Taxation: The Design of Child‐Related Cash and In‐Kind Benefits

Abstract. In this paper, we empirically derive the welfare function that guarantees that the current German tax and transfer system for single women is optimal. In particular, we compare the welfare function conditional on the presence and age of children and assess how recent reforms of in‐kind childcare transfers affect the welfare function. Our analysis is based on a discrete model of optimal taxation. We apply this framework using microsimulation and microeconometric techniques. In general, we find that marginal welfare weights are relatively high for non‐working single women. Further, we show that the reform of in‐kind childcare transfers is only optimal if society increases the marginal welfare weights for the working single women.     

Exchange Rates and Long‐Term Bonds*

There is tentative evidence to suggest that the well‐documented empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP) is confined to short‐term interest rates. However, tests of UIP for long‐term bonds are thwarted by various data problems. These data problems can be avoided by focusing on short investments in long‐term bonds. This paper concerns the relationship between changes in the US dollar–Deutsche Mark exchange rate and returns to short investments in US and German long‐term government bonds. The hypothesis that expected returns to investments in bonds denominated in the two currencies are equal is not rejected, and the estimated slope coefficients are positive. For corresponding short‐term interest rates, the typical finding of negative and large Fama coefficients is confirmed. We conclude that it is the maturity of the asset, rather than the investment horizon, that matters for the results.     

实际汇率与就业--基于内生劳动力供给的跨期均衡分析

文章在个体跨期最优模型中引入内生劳动力供给,并同时假定对资本流动存在限制,以此来分析实际汇率变动对就业的影响。结果发现:只有当消费者对商品消费的相对风险规避程度比较大,即消费的跨期替代弹性比较小时,本币实际贬值才会促进就业的增加,反之贬值会使就业减少。考虑到中国当前的具体情况,消费者商品消费的相对风险规避程度会比较大,因而人民币实际贬值会有利于就业。对中国的实证分析支持了这一结论,且该实证分析通过了实际汇率的超外生性检验。鉴于从长期来看中国消费者的相对风险规避程度有下降的趋势,过分的依赖于低币值的汇率政策来解决失业问题是不可行的。     

The Impact of China's New Rural Pension Program on Elderly Labor,Grandchild Care,and Old-Age Support

ABSTRACT

This study examines how a social pension program changes paid work patterns and expectations about the source of future financial support for the elderly in China. Using the 2011 and 2013 waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), the study finds that the New Rural Pension Program (NRPP) reduced the hours of farmwork and increased the hours of grandchild care among elderly rural men; and both elderly women and men reported less expected reliance on adult children for financial support when they become infirm. These differential effects probably occur because the size of the pension benefit is very small and because of previous gender differences in farmwork and grandchild care. Additionally, the study shows that adult children reduced out-migration and increased their hours spent in farming activities, indicating that the effect of the NRPP has spilled over to younger members of the household.     

Price of High‐quality Daycare and Female Employment

Using local variation between municipalities, I analyze the degree to which the price of high‐quality publicly subsidized childcare affects female employment following maternity leave. Importantly, prices are income dependent and thus likely endogenous, yet by exploiting information on minimum income compensation during non‐employment, I bypass this problem. The results show that the price negatively affects employment. A price increase of €1 per month decreases employment by 0.08%, which corresponds to a price elasticity of −0.17. These effects prevail during the first 12 months after childbirth. I also find that availability of childcare increases employment.     

The Long‐Term Impacts of the 1998 Nagano Winter Olympic Games on Economic and Labor Market Outcomes

This paper aims to assess the long‐term effects of the 1998 Nagano Winter Olympic Games on various economic and labor market outcomes in Nagano Prefecture. One‐shot and large‐size events, such as the Olympic Games, are expected to boost the local economy and create jobs, thus leading to lower unemployment. In addition, the tightening of the local labor market eventually raises wages. Using the synthetic control methodology, we build counterfactual dynamics of various economic and labor market outcomes for Nagano Prefecture, and then compare these outcomes with the actual data for these variables. This allows us to determine how the local economic and labor market outcomes in Nagano Prefecture would have been different had the 1998 Olympic Games not been held there.     

Migration and Wage‐setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration*

In this paper we employ a wage‐setting approach to analyze the labor market effects of immigration into Germany from 1980 to 2004. This enables us to consider labor market rigidities, which are prevalent in Europe. We find that the elasticity of the wage‐setting curve is particularly high for young workers. Moreover, natives and foreigners are imperfect substitutes. The wage and employment effects of immigration depend on the skill structure of the immigrant workforce. Because the foreign labor supply shift has mainly affected the high‐skilled labor market segment, the 4 percent increase of the workforce through immigration has not increased either aggregate or foreign unemployment.     

人口老龄化视角下家庭照料与城镇女性就业关系研究

随着我国人口老龄化,女性在家庭劳动与职业劳动之间的角色冲突日益凸显。文章利用1991-2009年"中国营养与健康调查"(CNHS)数据及面板数据分析和工具变量方法,实证检验了老人家庭照料责任对城镇女性职业劳动参与决策的影响,以期为女性就业、养老政策的制定提供科学依据。研究发现,照料老人显著降低了女性的劳动参与率,尤其是长时间、高强度的照料活动。与无照料责任的女性相比,与父母(公婆)同住、有照料责任的女性劳动参与率将下降0.215;高强度照料活动对女性劳动参与的影响更大,劳动参与率将下降0.695。     

The “Make‐up” of a Regression Coefficient: Gender Gaps in the European Labor Market

We provide a comprehensive picture of the relationship between labor market outcomes and age by gender in the 28 European countries covered by the European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. The analysis is based on a somewhat unconventional approach that refers to concentration curves in the Gini regression framework. It allows identification of ranges in the explanatory variables where local slopes change sign and/or size, i.e. the components that “make up” a regression coefficient. Gender is a crucial factor differentiating participation among workers, although employment–age profiles do not substantially differ. Relevant differences in age profiles concern working‐hours patterns: some countries are characterized by an almost specular behavior in men and women; other countries instead show similar patterns. Generally, earnings increase with age for both men and women. However, local regression coefficients are not monotonic over the entire age range and can even be locally negative in some countries.     

The Effects of Incidence of Care Needs in Households on Employment,Subjective Health,and Life Satisfaction among Middle‐aged Family Members

In this study, based on longitudinal data, we investigate whether Japanese middle‐aged men and women become less likely to have a job and whether their sense of well‐being decreases when they have a family member who needs care. We find a consistent negative impact of having a family member who needs care on employment, but no impact on subjective health and life satisfaction. Further, the differences‐in‐differences (DID) estimation, based on both unmatched and matched data, shows that the Long‐Term Care Insurance (LTCI) introduced in 2000 did not mitigate the adverse impact on the probability of being employed.     

Marginal Tax Rates and Tax‐Favoured Pension Savings of the Self‐Employed: Evidence from Sweden*

In recent years, the study of how individuals respond to policies that aim at promoting pension savings has emerged as a vital area of economic research. This paper adds to this body of literature by estimating the tax price elasticity of contributions to tax‐favoured pension‐savings accounts on a population of self‐employed individuals. I exploit a unique total database over the Swedish population that covers the years 1999–2005. Using instrumental variables, I obtain a tax price elasticity estimate of ?0.51 and an income elasticity estimate of 0.13, whereas ordinary least‐squares (OLS) produces estimates that conflict with consumer theory.     

Health Policy and Equity of Health Care Financing in Australia: 1973–2010

Using data from Australian Taxation Statistics and Household Expenditure Surveys we analyze the distribution of health care financing in Australia over almost four decades. We compute Kakwani Progressivity indices for four sources of health care financing: general taxation, Medicare Levy payments, Medicare Levy Surcharge payments, and direct consumer payments, and estimate the effects of major policy changes on them. The results demonstrate that the first three of these sources of health care financing are progressive in Australia, while the distribution of direct payments is regressive. Surprisingly, we find that neither the introduction of Medicare in Australia in 1984 nor the Extended Medicare Safety Net in 2004 had significant effects on the progressivity of health care financing in Australia. By contrast, the Lifetime Cover scheme—introduced in 2000 to encourage people to buy and hold private health insurance—had a progressive effect on health care financing.     

Understanding Changes in the Distribution and Redistribution of Income: A Unifying Decomposition Framework

In recent decades income inequality has increased in many developed countries but the role of tax and transfer reforms is often poorly understood. We propose a new method allowing for the decomposition of historical changes in income distribution and redistribution measures into: (i) the immediate effect of tax‐transfer policy reforms in the absence of behavioral responses; (ii) the effect of labor supply responses induced by these reforms; and (iii) a third component allowing us to explore the effect of changes in the distribution of a wide range of determinants, including the effect of employment changes not induced by policy reforms. The application of the decomposition to Australia reveals that the direct effect of tax‐transfer policy reforms accounts for half of the observed increase in income inequality between 1999 and 2008, while the increased dispersion of wages and capital incomes also played an important role.