AN ECONOMIC RATIONALE FOR COUNTERTRADE: Liquidity Constraints

Countertrade is a generic term for parallel business transactions linking sales contracts with agreements to purchase goods or services. Countertrade has been viewed as an inefficient way of doing business primarily because of problems associated with such things as quality variations and increases in transaction costs. A review of the international trade literature suggests that market imperfections (shortage of convertible currency, information asymmetry that may create the so-called lemon problem and moral hazard) may provide motivations for countertrade. This article focuses on one motivation: liquidity constraint. The liquidity constraint is introduced in both goods and the factor markets in addition to the production constraint. The article compares and contrasts two strategies facing the management team of a profit-maximizing firm. The model developed shows that countertrade strategy could be superior to standard money-mediated trade strategy when the liquidity constraint is binding. Therefore, countertrade appears to be a rational response to conditions that restrict standard trade. As such, countertrade can supplement standard money-mediated trade and contribute to the growth of international business.     

Gatt regulation of countertrade: Issues and prospects

In light of persistent hard currency shortages, an increasing number of countries and firms resort to countertrade. Although this practice has the potential to become a major threat to the world trade framework, it is currently not specifically addressed by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). From the context of the upcoming international trade negotiations, this article explores the extent to which countertrade practices are, and should be, incorporated into the GATT framework. It analyzes current GATT jurisdiction, presents policy considerations in favor of and against the inclusion of countertrade into the GATT, and addresses practical considerations to be kept in mind during negotiations on this issue.     

The role of purchasing in countertrade

This paper examines countertrade with a particular emphasis on the involvement of UK companies. A review of the literature shows that whilst international trade organisations adopt a negative attitude to countertrade, which creates difficulties for research into the subject, substantial benefits may be obtained by both parties to countertrade deals. The results of empirical research show that UK companies involved in countertrade play a largely reactive role, which mirrors the approach of UK government agencies. It is argued that purchasing can play a significant role in proactive countertrade through identifying appropriate sources, effective negotiation and disposal of goods to existing suppliers.     

Countertrade: Forms,motives, pitfalls,and negotiation requisites

The impressive growth in countertrade necessitates a careful look at this trade financing mechanism and a new attitude by American policy makers and businessmen toward it. This study looks at the various forms of countertrade, at the motivating forces behind it, at the pitfalls that countertrade could engender, and at some imperatives in the negotiation of countertrade deals. The issues are examined from the perspective of a policy maker and that of a businessman. The two perspective are distinct but overlap sufficiently to merit a joint examination. It is the conclusion of this study that countertrade is here to stay, and that American businessmen better learn to cope with it if they are to maintain and improve their competitiveness in the world markets.     

Why do developing countries resist global trade agreements?

Abstract

Although the Doha Development Round was launched with much promise for developing countries in 2001, the global trade negotiations have collapsed. One of the reasons for the lack of progress in the negotiation is the developed countries' unwillingness to reduce their enormous farm domestic subsidies and massive agricultural trade distortions. The developing countries' economies are characterized by heavy dependence on farm sector, labor-intensive agriculture, and persistent unemployment. Consequently, rich nations' unfair agricultural policies are detrimental to the well-being of poor exporting countries. This study develops a model incorporating developed countries' domestic and trade policies and developing countries' economic characteristics to illustrate the adverse effects of rich countries' policies on poor countries. We show that elimination of developed countries' policies will increase the world prices of agricultural commodities, which will benefit the farm-dependent developing countries.     

Countertrade with developing countries: New opportunities for North-South trade?

Unconventional forms of international trade (such as counterpurchase, compensation deals and barter) have assumed rapidly growing importance, especially in many developing countries, as a consequence of the fall in commodity prices and the worsening of international debt problems since the oil price increases of 1973–74 and 1979. By using these trading methods countries expect to be able to ensure a continuation of the urgently needed flow of imports, open up new markets for surplus products and bring about greater export diversification as between both regions and products. The following article therefore focuses on the countertrade of Third World countries, both among themselves and with industrialised countries.     

Trade Costs and Current Accounts

Are trade cost reductions a plausible explanation for growing global current account imbalances? I advocate that changes in trade costs affect trade and production structures, which is likely to affect national savings and investment. Explicitly adding trade costs à la Markusen and Venables into Jin's framework, this augmented model predicts that trade cost reductions affect the current account through changes in the industrial structure. Empirical evidence confirms that the interaction of trade costs and capital intensity drives current account balances. I also provide evidence that the response of current accounts to changes in trade costs depends on the capital intensity of production and on the depth of regional agreements on trade and factor mobility. Aside from the direct effect generally emphasised in standard macro‐level analysis, changes in production patterns could therefore be an additional channel of impact of regional integration on current accounts.     

Effects of Power in Export Channels

While the literature identifies proper pricing as the primary determinant of the success of an international coutertrade transaction, no one research effort examines comprehensively the issue of pricing strategies in international counterade. The authors present a conceptual model and propositional inventory that examine the influence of marketing objectives on seller and buyer's pricing strategies in international countertrade.     

The role of processing trade in exporters' responses to exchange rate: Evidence from China

Processing trade is an important exporting mode for many countries developed by the export-oriented industrialisation such as 1960s Japan, 1990s Korea and 2000s China. Exporters who rely on processing trade for foreign profits do not enjoy much market power, and hence care more about exchange rate changes. We develop a model to illustrate how processing trade affects exporters' responses to exchange rate fluctuations. The model suggests that the elasticity of export price with respect to exchange rate for processing-trade exporters is greater than that of the ordinary-trade exporters, while the elasticity of export quantity of processing-trade exporters is smaller compared to their ordinary-trade counterparts. Most developing countries' governments offer processing-trade exporters better tax/tariff reduction policy to encourage exporting, which grants processing-trade exporters additional advantage to adjust more on export price and less on quantity when facing changes in exchange rate and therefore causes their different responses to exchange rate fluctuations. We find strong empirical supports by studying the data from China, which is the largest developing country and biggest processing-trade exporter.     

Assessing Trade Potential in Agricultural Sector of Iran: Application of Gravity Model

This article attempts to assess Iran's trade potential, explore over- and under-trade countries and determine factors affecting export development by using the gravity model. Seventy countries, which are considered the major markets for Iran agricultural products, are divided into 50 developing and 20 developed ones. By using panel data during the period when the export premium was submitted (2002–2005), Iran's agricultural exports were predicted. For this purpose, equations for each group of countries regressed by applying the augmented gravity model. Finally, the results were compared with actual figures. The results showed that Iran was more over-traded with developing countries relative to developed ones. This analysis helps us to determine the proper commercial direction, assess trade potential capacity and explore effective factors on export development such as export premium. Therefore, trade flows can be improved with under-trade countries and will be supported with over-trade ones through proper policies.     

Effects of the Regional Trading Arrangements on Trade: Evidence from the NAFTA,ANZCER and ASEAN Countries, 1989 – 2000

Using the modified gravity model, this study examines whether the free trade areas of NAFTA, ANZCER and ASEAN would result in trade creation among the member countries and trade diversion with the non-member countries. Further, it applies Linder's income similarity concept to explain the trade patterns in the developed and developing countries within these free trade areas. First, the results suggest that the implementations of the free trade areas have facilitated higher trade among the member countries, particularly the ANZCER and ASEAN countries. However, among all three free trade areas, the formation of the ANZCER free trade area has resulted in trade diversion with non-member countries, whereas that of the ASEAN free trade area has resulted in a trade increase with non-member countries. Surprisingly, the formation of the NAFTA free trade area has no significant effect on trade with non-member countries as their trade flows remain quite low even before its implementation. Second, the result indicates that the trade-enhancing effect of income similarity is confirmed for the developing rather than developed member countries. The developing member countries with similar incomes would trade extensively more with each other. This result can be partly explained by Hanink's income threshold concept, which argues that the income similarity effect is only applicable to developed countries with very small difference in incomes. Given the heterogeneous country sample in this study, the substantial income differences among the developed member countries would probably account for the lack of income similarity effect in these countries.     

Asymmetric cultural discounting and pattern of trade in cultural products: Empirical evidence in motion pictures

We extend the seminal home market effect model of Helpman and Krugman (Market structure and foreign trade, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1985) by incorporating asymmetric cultural discounting. In addition to the home market effect, our model predicts that a country subject to a relatively lower cultural discount factor becomes a net exporter as trade liberalisation accelerates. Using international box office revenues in the motion picture industry and developing a measure of asymmetric cultural discount based on tourist‐arrival statistics, we find empirical support for this hypothesis. Our model provides an explanation for the continued cultural dominance of smaller English‐speaking countries in larger non‐English‐speaking countries, which cannot be explained by the home market effect alone.     

Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda

This paper examines the extent to which various regions, and the world as a whole, could gain from multilateral trade reform over the next decade. The World Bank's Linkage model of the global economy is employed to examine the impact first of current trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible outcomes from the WTO's Doha Round. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in sub‐Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia (and in Cairns Group countries) proportionately more than in other developing countries or high‐income countries. Real returns to farmland and unskilled labour, and real net farm incomes, would rise substantially in those developing‐country regions, thereby helping to reduce poverty. A Doha partial liberalisation could take the world some way towards those desirable outcomes, but more so the more agricultural subsidies are disciplined and applied tariffs are cut, and the more not just high‐income but also developing countries choose to engage in the process of reform.     

MUTUAL FUND PORTFOLIO CHOICE IN THE PRESENCE OF DYNAMIC FLOWS

We analyze the implications of dynamic flows on a mutual fund's portfolio decisions. In our model, myopic investors dynamically allocate capital between a riskless asset and an actively managed fund which charges fraction‐of‐fund fees. The presence of dynamic flows induces “flow hedging” portfolio distortions on the part of the fund, even though investors are myopic. Our model predicts a positive relationship between a fund's proportional fee rate and its volatility. This is a consequence of higher‐fee funds holding more extreme equity positions. Although both the fund portfolio and investors' trading strategies depend on the proportional fee rate, the equilibrium value functions do not. Finally, we show that our results hold even if investors are allowed to directly trade some of the risky securities.     

Facilitating international production networks: The role of trade logistics

Networked trade in parts and components is more sensitive to the importer's logistics performance than is final goods trade. The difference between the two trade semi-elasticities is over 45%, which is quantitatively important. We also find that logistics performance is particularly important for trade among developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, which is where the emergence of production networks has been most pronounced. Logistics performance is also more important for South–South trade than for South–North trade. Our results suggest that developing country policymakers can support the development of international production networks by improving trade logistics performance.     

The global value chain under imperfect capital markets

This paper develops a model to study how suppliers' financial constraint interact with suppliers' position in a global value chain. I embed financial frictions into the property-rights model of the global value chain, as in Antràs and Chor (Econometrica, 2013, 81 , 2127), to derive the optimal allocation of ownership rights along the global value chain. The model predicts that multinational firms are more likely to integrate downstream intermediate input suppliers in countries with weak financial institutions when the production process is sequential complements. Using US intrafirm trade data for the years 2000–10, together with a triple-interaction term between "downstreamness" of an industry, demand elasticity of an industry and financial development of a country, I provide empirical evidence that supports the key prediction of the model.     

Trade Policy and Environmental Regulation in the Asia–Pacific: A Simulation

The Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has the potential to become the world's largest free trade area, encompassing both developed and developing countries. At the same time environmental standards vary substantially in the region. A multilateral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model combined with environmental sub–models simulates the environmental effects of trade and environmental policy changes. The simulations show: (i) Even drastic reductions in trade barriers have only a small effect on pollution; (ii) Low environmental standards relative to trade partners do not necessarily result in increased pollution when trade is liberalised; (iii) Unilaterally raising environmental standards does not crowd out pollution to countries with laxer standards.     

Who in Brazil Will Gain from Global Trade Reforms?

The potential impacts of multilateral trade liberalisation on developing countries are the subject of numerous controversies. One particular concern is that Brazil, a major agricultural exporter and a country with one of the world's most unequal income distributions, will reap a substantial share of the potential benefits to developing countries from agricultural trade reform, and that most of those benefits will go to large‐scale commercial farmers rather than to the country's smallholders. This claim is explored via a global general equilibrium model and a national model of Brazil containing multiple agricultural and non‐agricultural households. Brazil is found to account for nearly one‐half of all the benefits to developing countries deriving from global agricultural trade reform. These gains are associated with improvements in the welfare of each group and a lower incidence of poverty. Large‐scale producers gain more than smallholders as they tend to be relatively specialised in export products, but there are important gains to agricultural employees, who are relatively poor, and to urban households, who benefit from the expansion of the agro‐food sector. Overall, there is no discernible impact on income inequality, and no evidence that the gains to commercial farmers occur at the expense of poorer households.     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMPOSITION AND MEDIUM-RUN GROWTH: Evidence of a Causal Relationship

The motivation for this article stems from Mazumdar's (1996) hypothesis that international trade composition impacts a country's ability to achieve transitional economic growth. In his article, Mazumdar suggested that developing economies, generally known for exporting consumption goods and importing capital goods, benefit more from international trade than do developed economies. In addition to static gains, developing economies experience a decline in the replacement costs of capital as the relative price of capital falls with trade. To empirically test this hypothesis, a trade composition variable is created using unpublished SITC export and import data of both consumption and capital goods. Incorporating this variable into a linear equation, a Granger Causality test and a more extensive VAR test are performed for a select group of developed and developing economies. The empirical results are suggestive, and indicate some support for the hypothesis that trade composition "causes" medium-run transition.     

International Capital and the Environment in Latin America

Summary

This century's end has been witnessing an increase in environmental concern. While initially a subject of developed countries, developing countries began to realize that the trade off between developing and conserving the environment has to be equated to give present and future generations a chance of success in their development efforts. Thus far, the approach taken by both developed and developing countries towards correcting environmental problems has been primarily dominated by command and control type of regulations, whose success is clearly a function of the regulator's enforcement capacity. Yet, there are signs that this approach is changing towards a more participatory mixed environmental policy model. This change has further stimulated the growing “environmental industry,” in which international capital plays a major role. This paper discusses these recent trends in the context of the conservation of the Latin America and the Caribbean environment.