A generalized Armington trade model: Respecification

Even if the original version of the Armington model is simple and plausible in estimation, the single CES and homotheticity assumptions are too restrictive for practical application and give biased price elasticities. This paper develops a generalized Armington model, which relaxes the single CES and homotheticity restrictions, and includes the Armington model as a special case. The Armington and generalized Armington trade models are applied to the Japanese meat import demand to demonstrate their performance. The empirical results rejected the two assumptions imposed on the Armington model. The generalized Armington model provides an alternative to the restrictive but indispensable Armington model.     

Armington Elasticities and Tariff Regime: An Application to European Union Rice Imports

The European Union’s (EU) import sources for rice include developing countries and least developed countries (LDCs). The EU has made a commitment to allow duty‐free and quota‐free access to rice imports originating in the LDCs from September 2009 onward. The purpose of this article is to answer two questions: (1) does the inclusion of import tariffs lead to different estimated Armington elasticities? (2) when a discriminating tariff is introduced, what happens to the market share of large rice exporters to the EU, especially of poor countries? We present the Armington model, derived from a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function, and a non‐homothetic CES utility functional form, which is more flexible. We then estimate the Armington model, with and without the inclusion of a tariff, and we compare the elasticities. Lastly, we model five scenarios with different discriminated import tariff rates to calculate the changes in the market access of large rice exporters to the EU. Our empirical results show the importance of non‐homothetic preferences and import tariffs. Ignoring import tariffs and the non‐homothetic parameter may produce results which are biased and of uncertain validity. Furthermore, the simulation findings demonstrate that, in spite of a large difference between import tariff rate of Suriname and other countries (scenario V), its market access would not change greatly. This may be caused by supply side problems like poor infrastructures, weak technology and small capacity production in LDCs.     

An Econometric Analysis of Total (Domestic) and Import Demand for Beef in Hong Kong

This paper presents an applied econometric analysis of total (domestic and import) demand for beef in Hong Kong for the period 1970 to 1988. The estimates are in logarithmic form and provide elasticity estimates for beef demand (domestic and import) in Hong Kong. Variables in the estimated domestic demand models (per capita and aggregate) include own price, prices of a substitute (pork) and a complement (rice) and income. Variables in the estimated import demand model include demand side variables (price of beef, price of pork, price of rice and income) and the price of imported live cattle as a supply shifting variable. The elasticities were inelastic for the domestic demand models while most of those for the import demand model were elastic.     

Food Import Demand in the Czech Republic

This paper provides an overview of Czech food import demand in the transition period of the 1990s. It provides econometric estimates of own‐ and cross‐price elasticities as well as group expenditure elasticities of Czech import demand for sixteen lower level and four upper level food groups. Based on the Hausman test for endogeneity, which supported the hypothesis that Czech import prices were exogenously determined outside of the Czech economy, we estimated five demand models as direct‐demand systems of the AIDS type. The econometric estimation of elasticities used bimonthly data from March 1993 to August 1997.     

A Comparative Static Analysis of European Union Tariff and Support Policies for Canned Pears

Abstract

A nonlinear, partial equilibrium, Armington model of the European Union canned pear market was built and simulated for reductions in specific EU policies and for reductions in selected combinations of these policies relevant to canned pears: import tariffs, factor subsidies, and an output subsidy. Effects of these policy reductions on the following EU canned pear market variables were comparatively analyzed: own-product consumption, imports, exports, and price. Comparative analyses of these policy-specific effects were conducted from two viewpoints: the absolute magnitudes of completely eliminating, and the marginal effects of incrementally reducing, the EU policies and policy combinations. Among other findings, results suggest that EU tariff reduction enhances EU imports more than EU subsidy reduction, and that EU subsidy reduction increases EU prices more effectively than reducing EU tariffs.     

Growth in horticultural trade: Japan's market for developing countries

This paper explores possibilities and opportunities of expansion of horticultural exports from developing countries through an investigation on a rapidly growing market, Japan, as an example among major promising markets. In this paper six horticultural commodities are selected to analyze, emphasizing on exports from developing countries. Observations on Japan's horticultural imports make us presume that consumers differentiate products by place of production. Therefore, import behavior is considered in a two-stage budgeting procedure. The second-stage demands for imports from different sources are specified in an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and estimated statistically as well as the first-stage import demand equations. The estimated second-stage AIDS equations show that the magnitude of own-price coefficients varies with the source of imports and so does that of expenditure coefficients. Therefore, the characteristics of import demand on a commodity basis, which are captured by the estimates of the first-stage import demand equations, are not equally transmitted to the demand for imports by source in each commodity. The estimated coefficients of the first-stage import demand and the second-stage AIDS equations were combined to obtain the total effects of price and income changes on imports by source. The calculated own-price elasticities are greater than one in absolute value in ten of the 15 cases and so are the calculated income elasticities in twelve cases. The large elasticities promise suppliers that they benefit from Japan's income growth and that they increase their earnings if they can reduce the price by lowering their costs. However, factors in non-price competition also play import roles in the import growth. In this paper, the importance of sales promotions by exporters and preshipment inspections was indicated in the cases of mangoes and cut flowers. Other factors such as market structure and public infrastructure for post-harvest activities were also discussed.     

Demand for dairy products in Mexico

Mexico is the world's largest importer of non-fat dry milk (NFDM) and imports of cheese, fluid milk, and whey have increased rapidly in the past four years. In the wake of GATT and the NAFTA, as well as recent economic developments in Mexico, world dairy markets will be affected as a result of changes in the Mexican dairy sector. The study analyzes both domestic and import demand for dairy products in Mexico to determine price and income elasticities as well as import elasticities. The results indicate that the demand for fluid milk is the most responsive to price changes and NFDM demand is inelastic with respect to its own price. There is little subtitution between fluid milk and non-fat dry milk, although fluid milk is relatively elastic, which suggests the existence of other substitutes for fluid milk. Estimation of import demand equations reveal similar trends in response to price changes, but income elasticity of imports was highest for fluid milk which suggests that Mexico will import possibly more fluid than dry milk as incomes rise. The exchange rate was the most significant variable influencing all dairy product imports.     

Agriculture trade restrictiveness in Canada: How important are the cross effects?

A trade restrictiveness index (TRI) aggregates an entire protection structure into a single uniform measure that is consistent with trade theory and reflects the extent of policy interventions on trade or welfare. Although there are several variants of a TRI, all approaches aggregate protective measures using weights that depend on import demand and export supply elasticities; some studies ignore cross-price effects while others account for them. This study measures the degree of bias introduced by ignoring cross effects. It provides a practical approach to account for demand- and supply-side cross-price effects in a multi-commodity TRI setting. This approach is illustrated with a case study of distortions in the Canadian crop and livestock sector. Domestic demand and supply cross effects are approximated using a “constant differences of elasticities of substitution” functional form. On average, over the period 1996–2016, we find that cross-price effects do make a difference, and that including them makes the TRI 27% higher than an approach which ignores them. Furthermore, both TRI approaches produce indices that are higher and more variable than the OECD's percentage Producer Support Estimate (PSE) that measures policy transfers as a share of gross farm receipts. The fundamental differences between a TRI and PSE% is driven by market price support for milk.     

Time-varying Armington elasticity and country-of-origin bias: from the dynamic perspective of the Japanese demand for beef imports

Elasticities of substitution, often called Armington elasticities, reflect incomplete substitutability because of perceived product characteristics. This study divides the determinants of the Japanese demand for beef imports into two factors: (i) substitution elasticity and (ii) country-of-origin bias, and demonstrate how these measurements are associated with trade policy and food scare events. The Japanese beef industry serves as a case study to evaluate the multifold impact of import liberalisation and a series of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreaks. A time-varying parameter model is used to shed light on the dynamic effects of the import liberalisation and BSE outbreaks on the measurements. The estimation results reveal that the estimated substitutability and country-of-origin bias are very sensitive to the BSE cases, but not to the process of trade liberalisation. The results also confirm that as a result of the BSE outbreaks, the major factor of the Japanese demand for beef imports has changed from relative prices to the country-of-origin effect, thereby emphasising the importance of a traceability system and promotional activities, which would help in the formation of the country-of-origin effect.     

Imports versus Domestic Production: A Demand System Analysis of the U.S. Red Wine Market

The U.S. wine market experienced rapid growth in all facets—production, consumption, exports, and imports—over the past decade. Red wine imports more than tripled while consumption of domestically produced red wines doubled. This research estimates demand elasticities of U.S. red wine imports from five countries accounting for over 90% of imports—Italy, France, Spain, Australia, and Chile—using the first-difference version of the almost ideal demand system (AIDS). These elasticities are compared with those for domestically produced red wine. Results for conditional expenditure elasticities indicate that the U.S. red wine industry gains over imports when U.S. consumers' total expenditures on red wine increase. However, comparing own- and cross-price elasticities reveals an increase in the price of U.S. red wine results in a decline in quantity demanded six times greater than for French and Italian red wines and over 20 times greater than other import countries, thus harming the U.S. red wine industry. Empirical results suggest that U.S. red-wine producers could increase their total revenue by decreasing prices, while Italian and French producers can increase total revenues by increasing them.     

U.S. Canned Tuna Supply and Demand

Abstract

A 3SLS econometric model is used to estimate price elasticities of supply and demand for domestically produced and imported canned tuna in the U.S. market. In addition, a VAR model is developed to examine the relations between imports and domestically produced canned tuna. For domestically produced canned tuna, a 3SLS estimation of a structural econometric model yielded a coefficient for price elasticity of supply of 0.2 and of own-price demand of ?0.3. Such price inelasticities are expected of a fishery exploited at or near its maximum yields (inelastic supply), and a consumer product widely viewed as almost a necessity in a well-stocked pantry (inelastic demand). In addition, the model yielded a cross-price elasticity of demand with respect to the price of imported canned tuna of 0.45. Additional results include an income elasticity U.S. demand for domestically packed tuna of 0.83; a cross-price elasticity with the price of bread (a complement) of ?0.33, a cross-price elasticity for the price of ground meat (a substitute) of 0.30. With respect to imported canned tuna in the U.S. market, the corresponding elasticities estimated in the model are ?1.3 (own-price demand), 3.5 (income elasticity), ?1.2 (cross-price with the price of bread) and 2.5 (cross-price with the price of ground meat).

For canned tuna company managers, the results provide useful information about the likely effects on sales that would come from their own price changes, from changes in the price of imported canned tuna, and from price changes in the markets for complementary and substitute products. They can also use our results in discussions with U.S. trade negotiators, who are frequently faced with disputes over tariffs, market access, and other trade issues.     

Canadian Hog Supply Response: A Provincial Level Analysis

Canada's hog sector has faced two decades of tumultuous growth, yet there are no recent estimates of supply response. This study uses state‐space methods to account for a multiplicity of autonomous structural changes impacting the sector and determines if the fundamental relationship between supply response and hog prices has changed from previous estimates. The results are consistent with prior research but offer the reader previously unavailable estimates of supply response with respect to feed prices and the variability of hog and feed prices. Feed price elasticities are somewhat larger than hog price elasticities. The effects of price risk for supply response appear quite muted but the impacts of feed price risk are greater than for hog price risk.     

AGRICULTURAL PRICE PROTECTION,IMPORT DEPENDENCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: THE CASE OF WHEAT

This article analyses determinants of agricultural price protection for one important food, wheat, in a pooled cross-country and time-series analysis. For the aggregate sample it is shown that wheat price protection increases with a rising level of economic development and with a growing import dependence in wheat. Beyond this general pattern, the paper shows that the variation in wheat price protection can be significantly better explained if qualitative variables are introduced additionally into the model. For example, in Japan, in the Northern European countries and during the commodity price boom (1973–75), wheat price protection followed a specific pattern. Income elasticities and import-dependence elasticities of wheat price protection are computed for all countries in 1968–80, and additionally for various sub-regions and sub-periods.     

Cointegration in China's log import demand: Price endogeneity and structural change

The monthly data of China's log import from January 2000 to December 2013 are used to estimate the import demand elasticities, with the consideration of possible price endogeneity due to China's large share of the international log market, and structural break caused by global financial crisis in 2008. To address the possible structural break, cointegration tests allowing for a deterministic shift in the level of the variables are employed, and a two-stage estimation with top-down sequential elimination algorithm is performed on the restricted subset VECM. The results demonstrate that there exists a long-run cointegration relationship between China's log import and the explanatory variables. The import elasticities of macroeconomic development and import price are around 0.76 and −0.81, respectively. Other things being equal, the structural break would induce a 29.6% decline in China's log import. All the above parameters are significant at the 1% risk level. Furthermore, the contribution decomposition analysis suggests that China's macroeconomic development plays a dominant role in determining its log import, which implies that China's log import would not increase as quickly as before, given that its economy is shifting into the “New Normal State”. This conjecture is supported by our simulations, which indicate that, by 2020, the growth rate of China's log import will be lower than it has been in the past and the import volume would be approximately 1.1–1.6 times greater compared to imports in 2013.     

Impact of Mandatory Price Reporting Requirements on Level, Variability, and Elasticity Parameter Estimations for Retail Beef Prices

Moving to scanner based and quantity-weighted monthly average retail beef price series has changed the price series significantly. Quantity-weighted price levels are lower and more volatile. Perhaps most important, calculated elasticities for the quantity-weighted averages are lower than for the historical simple average data. Elasticity estimates for simple average monthly price data are also larger than for weekly data, raising the possibility that historic demand analyses have significantly overstated own price demand elasticities.     

Disaggregated econometric estimation of consumer demand response by alcoholic beverage types

The paper presents estimates of price elasticities of demand for 12 disaggregated alcoholic beverages in Australia: premium beer, full strength beer, low alcohol beer and mid‐strength beer; red bottled wine, white bottled wine, sparkling wine, cask wine; dark and light ready‐to‐drink (RTD); and dark and light spirits. These disaggregated categories correspond closely to the commodities of interest to public policymakers with respect to taxation and health policies. The system of demand equations is estimated with Nielsen's data using a semiflexible Almost Ideal Demand System model in order to impose negative semi‐definiteness on the demand parameters. Results indicate elastic own‐price elasticities for virtually all commodities. Cross‐price elasticities suggest that beverages most linked with negative externalities, namely full strength beer, dark RTD and dark spirits, may need to be taxed jointly. Any proposed tax increase to cask wine may also result in consumers shifting demand to more undesirable beverages. The elasticity estimates are used to illustrate the effect of a hypothetical change towards taxation equalisation based on alcohol content. These elasticities offer crucially needed inputs for analysing any tax change policies.     

Agricultural Supply Response: A Survey

This paper surveys the literature on agricultural supply response to prices in developing countries. Empirical estimates of elasticities depend both on the methodology adopted and on country-specific factors relating to technology, economic structure and macro constraints. The paper seeks to establish some general conclusions on supply responsiveness within these limitations. Supply response to output prices at the aggregate and at the crop levels is considered first. Crop-specific acreage elasticities range between zero and 0.8 in the short run while long-run elasticities tend to be higher — between 0.3 and 1.2. Yield elasticities are smaller and less stable than acreage elasticities. Clearly, inter-crop pricing can be relied upon to effect shifts in the commodity composition of agricultural output. Evidence also suggests that supply elasticities vary systematically with such factors as price and yield risks, multiple-cropping, the importance of the crop, farm incomes, farm size, tenancy and literacy. The most controversial and important aspect of supply response is the effect on aggregate agricultural output of agriculture's terms of trade. Conventional time-series estimates range from 0.1 to 0.3. A major cross-country study reports an aggregate elasticity as high as 1.66. It is argued that cross-country estimates are apt to exaggerate aggregate responsiveness while time-series studies underestimate it somewhat. For LDCs, a tentative range of 0.4 to 0.5 seems plausible. Hence, the distributive effects of the terms of trade are likely to be more significant than the allocative effects. Asian evidence shows that only a third of the inter-country differences in fertilizer use can be attributed to fertilizer price policies. Provided new technologies and infrastructure are in place, fertilizer subsidies can help in technology diffusion and in overcoming credit constraints. The choice between price supports and input subsidies will depend on a variety of country- or situation-specific factors. Nevertheless, a significant general factor favoring price supports is that they can more easily be coupled with price stabilization goals than input subsidies. Though sparse, the available evidence on the response of marketed surplus suggests that price policy is not a reliable instrument for regulating inter-sectoral trade.     

International Supply Response

Long-run aggregate agricultural supply elasticities obtained from conventional supply functions fitted to time series data tend to be relatively inelastic in the range of 0.1 to 0.4. I argue that these estimates substantially understate the true long-run supply response in agriculture. Because of the lack of international input price data, implicit output/input price ratios are estimated from a production function assuming profit maximization. The estimation of an aggregate supply function utilizing these price ratios yields long run aggregate supply elasticities in the range of 0.90 to 1.19. These figures are substantially larger than those obtained from conventional supply functions fitted to time series data, but correspond closely to estimates reported in an earlier crosscountry study that used different price data for different points in time. The results imply that policies which distort domestic and/or world market prices of agricultural products cause greater output distortions in both the DCs and LDCs than are predicted by the small supply elasticities obtained from conventional supply estimation.     

A Review of International Agricultural Supply Response

Existine literature has orovided a wide ranee of estimates for supply elasticities. This study reviews agricultural supply response in developed and developing countries. The main obiective is to provide an understanding of the causal factors accounthg for the diversity of estimates. It is discussed that the estimated elasticities vary depending on the methodology used, the time period the cover, the definition of price variable, and the type of data utilized: The various methodologies employed to estimate supply elasticities are discussed. Finally, some conclusions are derived which are supported by the theory and the weight of the evidence.     

Food demand elasticities for Australia

There is renewed interest in robust estimates of food demand elasticities at a disaggregated level not only to analyse the impact of changing food preferences on the agricultural sector, but also to establish the likely impact of pricing incentives on households. Using data drawn from two national Household Expenditure Surveys covering the periods 1998/1999 and 2003/2004, and adopting an Almost Ideal Demand System approach that addresses the zero observations problem, this paper estimates a food demand system for 15 food categories for Australia. The categories cover the standard food items that Australian households demand routinely. Own‐price, cross‐price and expenditure elasticity estimates of the Marshallian and Hicksian types have been derived for all categories. The parameter estimates obtained in this study represent the first integrated set of food demand elasticities based on a highly disaggregated food demand system for Australia, and all accord with economic intuition.