The Palm Oil Import Demand in Middle East and North African (MENA) Countries

Abstract

The palm oil import demand in selected Middle East and North African (MENA) countries, represented by 10 single equation models, have been analysed through utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique. The findings of the study show that the palm oil prices as well as the national income are significant determinants of palm oil demand across the 10 models. The prices of substitute oils in almost all countries have been found to play an important role in shaping the palm oil demand. Other factors such as high palm oil discount, the 1970s world petroleum prices boom, the anti-palm oil campaign, trade embargos on Libya and Iraq, and exchange rate also proved to be important factors affecting import demand for palm oil in some MENA countries.     

油脂定性试验菜籽油中棉籽油检出测量不确定度评定的探讨

探讨油脂定性试验——菜籽油中棉籽油检出测量不确定度的评定。用已知棉籽油含量的菜籽油进行检测分析测量过程的不确定度分量,合成相对不确定度(Uc)=18.21%。选择与被测样色泽接近的油脂加标对照,可以有效提高测定准确性。     

新疆3种特色食品油炸过程中油脂废弃指标变化规律研究

本研究分别以大豆油、棉籽油为煎炸油,在180℃条件下对3种新疆特色食品馓子、牛肉丸、夹沙进行油炸。研究大豆油、棉籽油在煎炸过程中废弃指标酸价和总极性组分的变化规律。结果表明,随着油炸时间的延长,酸价和总极性组分均呈逐渐上升趋势;根据GB 2716—2018规定的煎炸油废弃指标限定值(总极性组分≥27%,酸价≥5 mg KOH/g),大豆油油炸馓子、牛肉丸和夹沙过程中废弃时间分别为56～64 h、64～72 h和48～56 h,棉籽油油炸馓子、牛肉丸和夹沙过程中废弃时间均为48～56 h;大豆油的煎炸稳定性强于棉籽油,更适合应用于上述3种食品的油炸生产。本研究为新疆特色食品油炸过程中煎炸油品质及废弃点判别提供了理论依据。     

Noneconomic Distortions in International Agricultural Trade:

A U.S. import demand model for palm oil empirically addresses the objectives of ascertaining whether significant shifts in U.S. import patterns for palm oil followed an American Soybean Association negative informational campaign against "fatty" tropical oils and whether factors such as exchange rates significantly affected the decline of U.S. palm oil imports after the campaign. Evidence suggests that structural change in U.S. import demand for palm oil followed commencement of the campaign, including significant changes in the own- and cross-price responsiveness of palm oil. Results also indicate that exchange rates did not contribute to declining U.S. palm oil imports.     

How effective is a fat subsidy? Evidence from edible oil consumption in India

Taxes on fats and sugar-sweetened beverages are deployed in the developed world to encourage healthier diets. How effective might such fiscal instruments be in emerging economies? We evaluate the impacts of a subsidy for palm oil, introduced as part of the public distribution system in three Indian states. Using variants of the difference-in-differences approach, we find that palm oil consumption increased, particularly in rural areas, as a result of the subsidy, and traditional oils were displaced by cheaper palm oil. However, the intervention did not significantly alter overall edible oil consumption. These results are robust to different specifications, alternative estimation samples, and the exclusion of households who may have been potential beneficiaries of other interventions. Impacts were higher in Tamil Nadu than in other states, and were higher for vegetarian households in rural areas. There was only weak evidence of spillover income effects on other food groups. Given India's dual burden of malnutrition, our analysis suggests that fiscal policy interventions have the potential to effectively nudge consumer choices towards healthier edible oil consumption.     

Forest or oil palm plantation? Interpretation of local responses to the oil palm promises in Kalimantan,Indonesia

Global land use/land cover change is dominated by the expansion of cash crops plantations, replacing natural ecosystems including forests. International trade is an important factor in this process. Increasing demand on certain crops has triggered plantation expansion and deforestation, and influence local land use in other countries (land teleconnections). Oil palm expansion is one of the most prominent examples of land teleconnections. In Indonesia, oil palm plantations area increased from 1.1 million ha in 1990 to 11.2 million ha in 2015. According to the Indonesian Law on Plantation, the indigenous people's decisions play important roles in land use decisions. This paper investigates what were the factors (drivers) determining the individual-level responses to the oil palm promises in West Kalimantan. These questions are not only important for the future of Kalimantan’s rainforest but will also enrich deforestation and conservation-development discourses. We selected 49 respondents for interviews and focus groups such that people who opposed and people who supported the conversion were both well represented. Much attention was paid to arrive at a balanced set of operational variables, such as the economic resilience, agency and embeddedness of actors and the degree to which actors had appreciated and believed the oil palm promise. Data were analyzed through the QCA method. The outcomes show a perfect association of appreciation of the oil palm promises, belief in them and the decision to support the oil palm. This was not strongly associated with low economic resilience however; economically less resilient respondents could reject the oil palm conversion, while economically resilient respondents could support it. In other words, the data do not point to a poverty/deforestation nexus. Rather, the data suggest the existence of an ‘embeddedness / rejection nexus’; people that were well-connected to community, traditions and nature held long-term motivations and rejected the oil palm promise, and vice versa. More attention to this phenomenon will help bridge conservation-development objectives in Kalimantan.     

Shifting patterns of oil palm driven deforestation in Indonesia and implications for zero-deforestation commitments

Oil palm plantations in Indonesia have been linked to substantial deforestation in the 1990s and 2000s, though recent studies suggest that new plantations are increasingly developed on non-forest land. Without nationwide data to establish recent baseline trends, the impact of commitments to eliminate deforestation from palm oil supply chains could therefore be overestimated. We examine the area and proportion of plantations replacing forests across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua up to 2015, and map biophysically suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. We created new maps of oil palm plantations for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, and examined land cover replaced in each period. Nationwide, oil palm plantation expansion occurred at an average rate of 450,000 ha yr⁻¹, and resulted in an average of 117,000 ha yr⁻¹ of deforestation, during 1995–2015. Our analysis of the most recent five-year period (2010–2015) shows that the rate of deforestation due to new plantations has remained relatively stable since 2005, despite large increases in the extent of plantations. As a result, the proportion of plantations replacing forests decreased from 54% during 1995–2000, to 18% during 2010–2015. In addition, we estimate there are 30.2 million hectares of non-forest land nationwide which meet biophysical suitability criteria for oil palm cultivation. Our findings suggest that recent zero-deforestation commitments may not have a large impact on deforestation in Sumatra, where plantations have increasingly expanded onto non-forest land over the past twenty years, and which hosts large potentially suitable areas for future deforestation-free expansion. On the other hand, these pledges could have more influence in Kalimantan, where oil palm driven deforestation increased over our study period, and in Papua, a new frontier of expansion with substantial remaining forest cover.     

A detailed greenhouse gas budget for palm oil production

We have evaluated the global warming impact of palm oil production in a model that simulates the operations of a typical palm oil mill that processes fruit from a nucleus estate and outgrowers. It estimates carbon sequestration in the crop and in mill products and by-products, and balances this against the major sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs), all converted to carbon dioxide equivalents (CO₂-e) over the 25-year lifespan of the crop. The model shows that most carbon sequestration occurs in the standing crop, with smaller amounts in mill products and by-products. Land-use conversion plays a dominant role in the GHG budget, with planting of oil palm after logged forest or rubber leading to a net loss of carbon, and to a net gain following grassland. In the default oil-palm-to-oil-palm case the carbon lost from cleared palms is balanced by sequestration in the current crop. Methane from mill effluent and nitrous oxide from N fertilizers are the next most important emission sources. The default replant case gives net emissions of 0.86t CO₂-e per t crude palm oil, but these can be reduced to very low values, mainly through conversion of methane and surplus fuel in the mill to energy.     

Is a Futures Market Viable in Turkey? The Case of a Cotton Futures Market

Abstract

Many countries as they reduce price controls develop an interest in futures markets as a way to manage risk. This article explores the potential of using existing futures markets to hedge cotton in Turkey. Futures prices in New York and Liverpool are not cointegrated and only weakly correlated with cash prices in Izmir. Thus, existing futures markets have limited ability to reduce the risk faced by the cotton industry in Turkey. While there are obstacles to overcome, there does appear to be a potential demand for a cotton futures market in Turkey.     

Quantifying and understanding land cover changes by large and small oil palm expansion regimes in the Peruvian Amazon

With rapid increases in global food demand and production, oil palm expansion constitutes a major emerging challenge for forest conservation in Amazonia and other tropical forest regions. This threat is evident in the Peruvian Amazon, where local and national incentives for oil palm cultivation along with growing large-scale investments translate into accelerated oil palm expansion. Environmental sustainability of oil palm cultivation in the Peruvian Amazon is contingent on policy incentives for expansion onto already-cleared lands instead of biodiverse, high carbon primary rainforests. Previous research indicates that while industrial plantations use less land area than local smallholders, companies have a higher tendency to expand into primary rainforests. However, the motivations behind these differing expansion scenarios remain unclear. In this study we combine data from optical and radar satellite sensors with training information, field discussions, and review of public documents to examine the policy incentives and spatial patterns associated with oil palm expansion by smallholders and industries in one of Peru’s most rapidly changing Amazonian landscapes: the Ucayali region of the city of Pucallpa. Based on our satellite-based land cover change analysis, we found that between 2010 and 2016, smallholders utilized 21,070 ha more land area for oil palm than industries but industrial expansion occurred predominantly in old growth forests (70%) in contrast to degraded lands for smallholders (56%). Our analysis of national policies related to oil palm expansion reveal policy loopholes associated with Peru’s “best land use” classification system that allow for standing forests to undergo large-scale agricultural development with little government oversight. We conclude that both sectors will need careful, real-time monitoring and government engagement to reduce old-growth forest loss and develop successful strategies for mitigating future environmental impacts of oil palm expansion.     

Discouraging Rainforest Transformation: An Ex-ante Policy Impact Analysis

Despite extensive efforts made by national and international certification agencies, Indonesian smallholder farmers’ participation in palm oil certification schemes adoption remains low. A fundamental obstacle is the smallholder practice of rainforest transformation into oil palm plantation which is forbidden by the agencies. In this context, we investigate three policies that could lead to a reduction in rainforest deforestation by smallholders: price premium on certified palm oil; the provision of environmental information; contributor recognition. In order to evaluate the influence of the policies ex-ante, we conduct a social dilemma experiment involving rubber and oil palm smallholders in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The findings indicate that the price premium and provision of context-specific environmental information could reduce rainforest transformation. However, a statistically significant effect of contributor recognition was not found.     

Expenditure Pattern for Food Away from Home Consumption in Turkey

ABSTRACT

One of the largest recent changes in consumer food purchasing behavior is the trend towards greater consumption of food eaten outside the home. Between 1994 and 2000, the share of total food expenditures spent on food away from home (FAFH) increased from 7 to 15% with an increasing share for fast-food facilities. This study focuses on whether demographic and socioeconomic factors have detectable effects on Turkish FAFH expenditures. This question is of interest because previous studies suggest that increasing household income, education, female labor participation and changing lifestyle especially in developing countries increased household FAFH consumption share but decreased food at home consumption share. However, no study to our knowledge has examined the combined effect of income, education, employment, and family status on Turkish FAFH consumption. The data for this research were obtained from personal interviews of representative sample households of the province of Adana in Turkey. The findings of this study generally indicate that restaurant facilities, employment of wife and education, composition of household, and income are statistically significant determinants of FAFH consumption.     

Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia

This study compiles and analyses national-level data on land use change (LUC) and its causes in Indonesia and Malaysia over the past 30 years. The study also explores the role that palm oil has played in past LUC and that projected growth in palm oil production may play in LUC until 2020 and suggests strategies to minimize negative effects. Data collection for the study revealed that the quality and quantity of data on LUC on a national scale over time are low. Despite these uncertainties, the overview of past LUC indicates that large changes in land use have occurred in Indonesia and Malaysia. In Indonesia, LUC can primarily be characterized by forest cover loss on 40 million ha (Mha) of land, a 30% reduction in forest land. Deforestation in Malaysia has been smaller in both absolute and relative terms, with a forest cover loss of nearly 5 Mha (20% reduction in forest land). Other large changes in Malaysia occurred in permanent cropland (excluding oil palm), which has decreased rapidly since the early 1990s, and in land under oil palm cultivation, which experienced a sharp increase. Projections of additional land demand for palm oil production in 2020 range from 1 to 28 Mha in Indonesia. The demand can be met to a large extent by degraded land if no further deforestation is assumed. In Malaysia, expansion projections range from 0.06 to 5 Mha, but only the lowest projection of oil palm expansion is feasible when only degraded land may be used. The role of palm oil production in future LUC depends on the size of the projected expansion as well as agricultural management factors such as implementation of best management practices, earlier replanting with higher yielding plants, and establishment of new plantations on degraded land. The current use of degraded land needs to be investigated in order to reduce possible indirect LUC, land tenure conflicts, or other social impacts. In addition to minimizing direct and indirect LUC by the palm oil sector, measures that reduce deforestation triggered by other causes must also be implemented. A key element for doing so is better planning and governance of land use, which entails more appropriate demarcation of forest land and protection of land that still has forest cover, improved monitoring of land use, and more research to uncover the complexities and dynamics of the causes and drivers of LUC.     

我国能源安全现状及其对策初探

作为世界上第三大能源消费和进口国,中国的能源安全问题和能源安全战略的实施是我国保持持续平稳发展所必须认真面对的重要课题和基本任务。分析中国能源安全现实状况,以发展的眼光,提出保障我国国家能源安全的五大基本对策,即建立石油安全战略储备、实施“走出去”的战略、巩固周边贸易伙伴、参与和组建世界性或区域性经济组织、打造“中国石油航母”。     

A historical analysis of the drivers of loss and degradation of Indonesia’s mangroves

Mangroves have been systematically exploited in Indonesia since 1800, especially for the development of brackish water shrimp aquaculture (called ‘tambak’) and for timber harvesting. By the end of the 1960s, Indonesia is estimated to have lost more than 200,000 ha of its mangroves mostly in Java and Sumatra. The rate of mangrove loss started to dramatically increase in the 1970 when exploitation shifted to new areas outside Java, particularly in Kalimantan and Sulawesi, encouraged by government policies to boost timber production, followed by policies to expand tambak in 1980s and large scale tambak development triggered by increased shrimp price during Asian financial crisis in 1997. The result has been the loss of nearly 800,000 ha of mangroves in only 30 years, mostly now in the form of low productivity or abandoned tambaks. In recent years, timber harvesting activities in Indonesia's mangroves appear to have become more sustainable. Our analysis suggests that aquaculture will continue as the main driver of change in mangrove ecosystems in Indonesia followed by palm oil plantation. Failure to deal with the current low productivity of shrimp aquaculture in many parts of Indonesia will force shrimp producers to clear an estimated 600,000 ha more mangroves to make way for shrimp farms over the next two decades. However, with improvements in brackish water aquaculture productivity, halting palm oil concession to utilise mangroves, along with maintaining other mangrove use pressures at moderate levels, the net loss of mangroves in the next two decades could be reduced to around 23,000 ha.     

葵花籽中水分含量测定不确定度评定

依据《食品安全国家标准食品中水分的测定》(GB 5009.3-2016)中第一法测定葵花籽中的水分。根据方法计算公式建立相应的数学模型,对葵花籽中水分的来源进行全面、细致的分析,通过对影响葵花籽中水分测定结果的4个不确定度分量μA(x)、μ(m1)、μ(m2)、μ(m3)进行量化分析,最后在实验中得出所测定葵花籽水分含量为6.82g/100g时,其扩展不确定度为0.06g/100g(k=2),进而得到了影响合成不确定度最主要的因素为μA(x),进一步保证了检测结果的准确性和稳定性。     

The assessment of the impact of oil palm and rubber plantations on the biotic and abiotic properties of tropical peat swamp soil in Indonesia

Current intensification of agricultural activities in Indonesia has led to increased use of tropical peat swamp forests for agriculture. Ideally, peat swamp ecosystems should not be disturbed as they provide essential services such as soil erosion control, ecosystem stabilization and moderation of climate and energy fluxes as well as reducing carbon emission and conserving biodiversity. In this study, agricultural land from Giam Siak Kecil–Bukit Batu Biosphere Reserve in Indonesia was evaluated to assess the impact of oil palm (burning and without burning) and rubber (5–10 and >40 years old) plantations on soil properties through comparisons with soils from a natural forest (NF). Substantial changes in the physico-chemical properties of soils from both plantations were observed including significant reductions in soil organic matter (4–18%) and water holding capacity (22–53%), but an increase in bulk density (ρb) (0.08–0.17?g?cm^?3). A significant increase in bacterial biomass was also observed following conversion of the NF to plantation (p<0.05). However, the oil palm plantation (OPP) (without burning) showed reduced microbial activities and the lowest Shannon diversity values (2.90) compared to other samples. Community-level physiological profiling showed impaired community function only in soils from the OPP but higher CO₂ exchange rates in most plantation soils. Soils from the rubber plantation (RP) were less impaired in terms of their natural function and therefore RPs appeared to be more suitable for sustainable agricultural use than OPP.     

Oil Palm Expansion among Smallholder Farmers in Sumatra,Indonesia

Many tropical regions are experiencing a rapid growth of oil palm cultivation. In Indonesia, the world's leading palm oil producer, in addition to large companies, smallholder farmers are increasingly engaged in the oil palm sector. Smallholder oil palm cultivation may contribute to income gains and socio‐economic development. However, land‐use decisions by smallholders are not well understood. Without appropriate policies, negative social and environmental consequences can also occur. To improve the knowledge base, we use data about present and past land‐use decisions from a survey of farm households in Sumatra. Employing duration models, we analyse the determinants and dynamics of oil palm adoption among smallholders. We find that independently operating farmers are currently driving growth rates in the oil palm sector. Smallholder adoption decisions are mainly attributable to regional and village level factors. While the current adoption primarily occurs outside of contracts, previous contractual ties between companies and other farmers in the same village play an important role for individual decisions. Beyond initial adoption, we also analyse later expansion decisions. While expanding the oil palm area subsequent to initial adoption is common among all types of adopters, those without previous contracts are found to expand significantly faster. We conclude that the concessions the government has allocated to palm oil companies in the past have initiated oil palm adoption in the small farm sector, but that the ensuing land‐use dynamics are mostly beyond government control. Some wider implications are discussed.     

Unpacking Indonesia’s independent oil palm smallholders: An actor-disaggregated approach to identifying environmental and social performance challenges

Processes of globalization have generated new opportunities for smallholders to participate in profitable global agro-commodity markets. This participation however is increasingly being shaped by differentiated capabilities to comply with emerging public and private quality and safety standards. The dynamics within Indonesia’s oil palm sector illustrate well the types of competitive challenges smallholders face in their integration into global agro-commodity chains. Because of public concern over the poor social and environmental performance of the sector, many governments, companies and consumers are attempting to clean up the value chain through self-regulatory commitments, certification and public regulation. As a result, many of Indonesia’s oil palm smallholders face compliance barriers due to informality and poor production practices, and threaten to become alienated from formal markets, which could in turn lead to a bifurcation of the oil palm sector. Recognizing that many oil palm smallholders lack compliance capacity, myriad public and private actors have begun designing initiatives to address compliance barriers and enhance smallholder competitiveness. However, failure to properly account for the heterogeneity of the smallholder oil palm sector will undermine the effectiveness and scalability of such initiatives. By developing a typology of independent smallholder oil palm farmers in Rokan Hulu district, Riau province, this article reveals the wide diversity of actors that compose Indonesia’s smallholder oil palm economy, the types of compliance barriers they face and the sustainable development challenges they pose. In doing so, this article illustrates how global agro-commodity chains can drive agrarian differentiation and offer new insights into the complex dynamics of agricultural frontier expansion.     

Context matters: Oil palm production and women's dietary diversity in the tropical forest of Cameroon

Oil palm is one of the most rapidly expanding food and cash crops in many tropical regions with significant environmental implications, but also economic gains. Previous analyses have established that this expansion is associated with changing gender roles and time allocation for women. Time allocation is an important determinant of maternal and child nutrition as well as well-being. We use a rich farm household survey from a native oil palm production hotspot, Cameroon, to examine the associations between oil palm production and women's dietary diversity. Using different estimation and identification strategies with some sensitivity checks, we show that oil palm is associated with lower dietary diversity for women, measured as the minimum dietary diversity for women and the minimum adequacy diversity diet. We explore heterogeneity in the various food groups consumed by women and show that oil palm production is associated with lower consumption of mainly pulses, fruits and vegetables. These findings contrast with the literature that has established some positive dietary diversity implications of oil palm expansion in Southeast Asia. We carefully discuss these findings and argue that context matters and may explain these differences. Particularly, we show that oil palm production is negatively associated with farm production diversity in Cameroon. Notwithstanding, we also confirm previous findings that highlight that oil palm production is associated with higher income. These insights add to the debate on the implications of oil palm expansion in tropical environments. Moreover, they can guide policy in designing more tailored interventions that address nutrition issues and improve rural development.