Noneconomic Distortions in International Agricultural Trade:

A U.S. import demand model for palm oil empirically addresses the objectives of ascertaining whether significant shifts in U.S. import patterns for palm oil followed an American Soybean Association negative informational campaign against "fatty" tropical oils and whether factors such as exchange rates significantly affected the decline of U.S. palm oil imports after the campaign. Evidence suggests that structural change in U.S. import demand for palm oil followed commencement of the campaign, including significant changes in the own- and cross-price responsiveness of palm oil. Results also indicate that exchange rates did not contribute to declining U.S. palm oil imports.     

Forest or oil palm plantation? Interpretation of local responses to the oil palm promises in Kalimantan,Indonesia

Global land use/land cover change is dominated by the expansion of cash crops plantations, replacing natural ecosystems including forests. International trade is an important factor in this process. Increasing demand on certain crops has triggered plantation expansion and deforestation, and influence local land use in other countries (land teleconnections). Oil palm expansion is one of the most prominent examples of land teleconnections. In Indonesia, oil palm plantations area increased from 1.1 million ha in 1990 to 11.2 million ha in 2015. According to the Indonesian Law on Plantation, the indigenous people's decisions play important roles in land use decisions. This paper investigates what were the factors (drivers) determining the individual-level responses to the oil palm promises in West Kalimantan. These questions are not only important for the future of Kalimantan’s rainforest but will also enrich deforestation and conservation-development discourses. We selected 49 respondents for interviews and focus groups such that people who opposed and people who supported the conversion were both well represented. Much attention was paid to arrive at a balanced set of operational variables, such as the economic resilience, agency and embeddedness of actors and the degree to which actors had appreciated and believed the oil palm promise. Data were analyzed through the QCA method. The outcomes show a perfect association of appreciation of the oil palm promises, belief in them and the decision to support the oil palm. This was not strongly associated with low economic resilience however; economically less resilient respondents could reject the oil palm conversion, while economically resilient respondents could support it. In other words, the data do not point to a poverty/deforestation nexus. Rather, the data suggest the existence of an ‘embeddedness / rejection nexus’; people that were well-connected to community, traditions and nature held long-term motivations and rejected the oil palm promise, and vice versa. More attention to this phenomenon will help bridge conservation-development objectives in Kalimantan.     

An Econometric Analysis of Total (Domestic) and Import Demand for Beef in Hong Kong

This paper presents an applied econometric analysis of total (domestic and import) demand for beef in Hong Kong for the period 1970 to 1988. The estimates are in logarithmic form and provide elasticity estimates for beef demand (domestic and import) in Hong Kong. Variables in the estimated domestic demand models (per capita and aggregate) include own price, prices of a substitute (pork) and a complement (rice) and income. Variables in the estimated import demand model include demand side variables (price of beef, price of pork, price of rice and income) and the price of imported live cattle as a supply shifting variable. The elasticities were inelastic for the domestic demand models while most of those for the import demand model were elastic.     

Effect of Sugar Price Policy on U.S. Imports of Processed Sugar-containing Foods

The relationship between U.S. and world sugar prices, and U.S. import demand for four categories of sugar-containing products is examined. Results from econometric estimation indicate that U.S. intervention in the sugar market has helped to increase U.S. imports of some sugar-containing products, but that increased disposable income has played a more important role. Although some developing countries have benefitted from U.S. sugar policy by increasing their exports of sugar-containing products to the United States, U.S. sugar policy has helped imports from developed countries proportionately more than those from developing countries as a whole.     

The Oilseed Market in Turkey

Abstract

Owing to the suitable natural resource endowments, twelve different oilrelated plants are grown in Turkey making it the largest producer in cottonseed, sunflower seed, cottonseed oil, and margarine in the Mediterranean Basin. However, Turkey has also been a net importer in both oilseeds and crude oils. It is the second largest importer in sunflower seed, sunflower oil, palm oil, corn oil, and third in soybean oil in the region. Using multicommodity partial equilibrium simulation model, this paper analyzes the future consumption and trade patterns in the Turkish oilseed market. The model suggests that the deficiencies in major meals and oils will likely to persist if the present policies are sustained. If the tariff rates are lowered to 0% for sunflower seed and to 12% for sunflower oil, the total vegetable oil disappearance as well as the imports of sunflower oil, sunflower meal, and palm oil will continue to grow.     

世界主要木本植物油产业发展变动与国际竞争力分析

运用USDA、FAOSTAT和UN Comtrade中的相关数据,分析了世界主要木本植物油产业发展的变动情况,总结出其生产、消费、进出口贸易的特点和规律,并对椰子油、橄榄油、棕榈油和棕榈仁油各自出口额排名前5位国家的主要木本植物油的国际竞争力进行比较研究,采用进出口数据评价法中最常用的RCA指数作为评价指标来判断其国际竞争力的强弱。     

Demand for food in Myanmar (Burma)

Aggregate quarterly time series data from 1975 to 1987 on government procurement prices and open (black) market prices were used in estimating an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and double-log models for consumption of foodstuffs in Myanmar. The results from the AIDS model were superior to those from the double-log models. The estimated income elasticity of demand for non-meat foodstuffs was high, even for low-quality rice, which has been shown to be an inferior good in other Asian countries. The income elasticities for the non-cereals (groundnut oil, sesame oil, pulses, potato and onion) are positive and less than one. Contrary to expectation, the income elasticities for all meat items are low. Own-price elasticities for most foodstuffs were less than one. The estimated cross-price elasticities indicate the complementary nature of the basic food items to rice. A brief analysis of the effects of taxing Myanmarese rice exports and subsidising consumers indicated that there are net costs to government, unevenly distributed welfare gains to consumers and welfare losses to farmers.     

Food Import Demand in the Czech Republic

This paper provides an overview of Czech food import demand in the transition period of the 1990s. It provides econometric estimates of own‐ and cross‐price elasticities as well as group expenditure elasticities of Czech import demand for sixteen lower level and four upper level food groups. Based on the Hausman test for endogeneity, which supported the hypothesis that Czech import prices were exogenously determined outside of the Czech economy, we estimated five demand models as direct‐demand systems of the AIDS type. The econometric estimation of elasticities used bimonthly data from March 1993 to August 1997.     

Factors Influencing Consumers' Decision to Purchase Beef

Abstract

The South Korean beef import market was deregulated in 2000. As the beef import quotas were lifted in January 2001, increased market opportunities became available for exporters. Beef exporters are allowed to have direct communication with beef merchandisers in South Korea, which enable them to respond to Korean consumer demand more effectively. Korean consumers apparently have a negative perception on the quality of imported beef. However, little information is available to guide international beef exporters in the design of an export market development program. This study used a consumer mail survey in order to examine the Korean consumer beef market. While this study is exploratory by nature, it goes beyond traditional demand analysis, and it aims to provide comprehensive information on the important factors affecting Korean consumers' beef purchasing behavior. Marketing implications for beef exporters are drawn.     

Transaction Cost Thresholds in International Rice Markets

Recent episodes of high and volatile prices for grains such as rice have raised concerns about their implications for hunger and poverty. We model price relationships between international rice prices and 221 domestic prices in 47 developing countries that import rice. We use a threshold vector error correction model that accounts for transaction costs of trade in spatial price transmission, and an improved regularised Bayesian threshold estimator for threshold models. Our results show that threshold values are higher after 2008 than before, which suggests that transaction costs in international rice trade have increased in recent years. Threshold values are highest for Latin American countries followed by African and Asian countries, and higher for retail than for wholesale prices. Since 2008, price transmission is slower in countries that responded to high and volatile prices with domestic market‐based interventions such as price controls and faster in countries that responded by lowering tariffs and by implementing production support measures.     

国际油价暴涨背后中国石油安全战略探析

石油作为一种重要的战略性基础能源,对一国国家经济安全产生重要影响。甚至使某些西方大国不惜动用武力来试图控制国外的石油资源。我国目前面临的状况是:国际油价高企,在强劲经济的拉动下我国石油需求持续增长,而国内原油产量增长缓慢,供求失衡不断扩大,对国际石油供应的担忧也日益严重。文章就国内目前高油价对经济的不利影响、石油供求现状、石油进口价格、风险等问题做了分析,并提出了大力开展石油期货贸易,建立石油储备体系,提高能源利用效率等项政策建议。     

IMPACTS OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY ON INTERNATIONAL WHEAT PRICES

The emergence of the EC as a major exporter of cereals in the 1980s and the escalation of international agricultural trade confrontations emphasize the importance of understanding the effects of EC policy actions. Several important features of the EC wheat market are incorporated in an analytical and empirical model including imperfect substitutability in demand between imports and domestic supplies, the simultaneous import and export of wheat by the EC, the distinct impact of threshold versus intervention policy prices, MCAs, and the imperfect transmission between market and intervention prices. Results indicate that EC policies have a smaller impact on world price than found in previous studies.     

Bioelectricity in Malaysia: economic feasibility,environmental and deforestation implications

We investigate the economic feasibility of bioelectricity production from biomass in Malaysia and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storage, agricultural prices, agricultural employment and deforestation. For this purpose, we develop a partial equilibrium model that projects agricultural prices, production, imports, exports, domestic consumption and land use in 5‐year increments between 2015 and 2065. Our results show that by 2030 biomass‐generated electricity can supply 36.5 per cent of the electricity generated in Malaysia, 16 times more than the 2016 electricity supply from biomass. Increased bioelectricity production from biomass will significantly reduce GHG emissions and will help Malaysia meet its commitment in the Paris Agreement to mitigate GHG emission by 45 per cent before 2030. Our modelling shows that biomass‐generated electricity creates a derived demand for waste biomass that expands the area of oil palm plantations. The expansion lowers agricultural prices, boosts agricultural employment and leads to some deforestation as landowners clear rainforest to plant oil palm trees. Nonetheless, the deforestation does not increase GHG emissions since GHG gains from bioelectricity significantly exceed GHG losses from deforestation.     

Tariff quota administration in China's grain markets: An empirical assessment

In 2016, the U.S. launched a trade dispute against China at the World Trade Organization, arguing that China has been restricting its grain imports via tariff quota administration. Despite sharp criticisms by the U.S., the extent to which the grain imports were restricted in China remains largely unknown, primarily due to that China's grain import behaviors are still under-researched. The U.S. grain export sector might actually gain little from China's grain trade liberalization in the short run, since China has become less import dependent on the U.S. through the pursuit of import diversification. In this context, this article aims to quantify impacts of the tariff quota administration on China's grain imports from its trading partners. We calculate ad valorem tariff equivalents of the tariff quota administration and then estimate import demand elasticities using a source differentiated import demand model. We find that the tariff quota administration might have reduced China's quota fill rates for the grain commodities by 10–35% during 2013–2017. In particular, the U.S. wheat exports to China were largely negatively affected. We also find that the tariff quota administration in China acts like a variable import levy—its import restrictiveness varies negatively with world prices, leading to lower import demand elasticities.     

Consumption Trends of Edible Mushrooms in Developing Countries

Abstract

Mushrooms are an important commodity worldwide. However, a thorough understanding of consumption trends is not yet available. In developing countries, the importance of edible mushrooms within consumer preferences and perceptions has not been studied. We carried out a study (2000-2003) to understand the patterns of mushroom consumption in central Mexico, where most wild/cultivated mushrooms are produced and/or marketed. About one-half (49.4%) of urban consumers bought mushrooms, independently of their social level [fresh or canned: white button mushroom (Agaricus), oyster mushroom (Pleurotus), shiitake (Lentinula). Preferences and perceptions from Mexican consumers depended on the social level. Mushroom prices were considered very or moderately expensive. Mushrooms were markedly more expensive than foods widely consumed. The variation of mushroom prices was a major factor influencing consumption. Basic data to carry out further marketing research are discussed, as well as an integral strategy considering social levels and regions to increase mushroom consumption.     

Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia

This study compiles and analyses national-level data on land use change (LUC) and its causes in Indonesia and Malaysia over the past 30 years. The study also explores the role that palm oil has played in past LUC and that projected growth in palm oil production may play in LUC until 2020 and suggests strategies to minimize negative effects. Data collection for the study revealed that the quality and quantity of data on LUC on a national scale over time are low. Despite these uncertainties, the overview of past LUC indicates that large changes in land use have occurred in Indonesia and Malaysia. In Indonesia, LUC can primarily be characterized by forest cover loss on 40 million ha (Mha) of land, a 30% reduction in forest land. Deforestation in Malaysia has been smaller in both absolute and relative terms, with a forest cover loss of nearly 5 Mha (20% reduction in forest land). Other large changes in Malaysia occurred in permanent cropland (excluding oil palm), which has decreased rapidly since the early 1990s, and in land under oil palm cultivation, which experienced a sharp increase. Projections of additional land demand for palm oil production in 2020 range from 1 to 28 Mha in Indonesia. The demand can be met to a large extent by degraded land if no further deforestation is assumed. In Malaysia, expansion projections range from 0.06 to 5 Mha, but only the lowest projection of oil palm expansion is feasible when only degraded land may be used. The role of palm oil production in future LUC depends on the size of the projected expansion as well as agricultural management factors such as implementation of best management practices, earlier replanting with higher yielding plants, and establishment of new plantations on degraded land. The current use of degraded land needs to be investigated in order to reduce possible indirect LUC, land tenure conflicts, or other social impacts. In addition to minimizing direct and indirect LUC by the palm oil sector, measures that reduce deforestation triggered by other causes must also be implemented. A key element for doing so is better planning and governance of land use, which entails more appropriate demarcation of forest land and protection of land that still has forest cover, improved monitoring of land use, and more research to uncover the complexities and dynamics of the causes and drivers of LUC.     

Alternative Methods for Estimating Price Elasticities of Imports

Abstract

This article compares three commonly-used methods for estimating import price elasticities: (1) trade-weighted price elasticities of domestic demand and supply along with price transmission; (2) direct estimates based on ad hoc import demands; and (3) Armington model estimates. Using data from El Salvador's grain markets (white maize, red beans, and rice), the results indicate that the second method provides the most reliable estimates and that the Armington procedure may not be appropriate for estimations of this type. However, the first method offers the best guesstimates to assess potential rather than historical import response as trade is liberalized.     

Scale Effects and Mark-ups in the US Food and Fibre Industries: Capital Investment and Import Penetration Impacts

Capital investment patterns and import penetration are often alleged to influence firms' costs and prices, and thus economic performance. We examine the impacts of these factors on measures of scale economies, input demand/composition, and market power in the US food and fibre industries. Flexible variable cost functions incorporating quasi-fixity of three categories of private (internal) capital and two external technological and trade (import) factors represent the cost structures of the two industries. Pricing equations, based on inverse demand functions including import prices, represent output decisions. Cost and demand elasticities constructed from this model indicate reduced manufacturing costs from technical and trade, scale and capital effects. This increased cost efficiency arises largely from materials savings in the textiles industry and reduced labour use in the food industry. Mark-up behaviour is exhibited for most of the sample period in the textiles industry, and neither industry appears heavily affected by import prices.     

WORLD ENERGY DEMAND AND CRUDE OIL PRICES TO THE YEAR 2000

This paper takes an overall look at world energy demand forecasts contained in the recent literature. From the ‘consensus’ data the paper suggests a non-communist world primary energy demand in 2000 of about 9,000 million tonnes oil equivalent. The focus then shifts to the demand for, and supply of, OPEC oil and it is argued that persistent excess demand will characterise this market for the remainder of the century. Observation of models of OPEC pricing behaviour suggests they are poor reflections of real world oil markets. As such, judgement rather than explicit modelling is used to suggest a world crude oil scenario in which oil prices rise at 10% p.a.     

Is a Futures Market Viable in Turkey? The Case of a Cotton Futures Market

Abstract

Many countries as they reduce price controls develop an interest in futures markets as a way to manage risk. This article explores the potential of using existing futures markets to hedge cotton in Turkey. Futures prices in New York and Liverpool are not cointegrated and only weakly correlated with cash prices in Izmir. Thus, existing futures markets have limited ability to reduce the risk faced by the cotton industry in Turkey. While there are obstacles to overcome, there does appear to be a potential demand for a cotton futures market in Turkey.