Hedonic Price Functions for Wheat in the World Market: Implications for Canadian Wheat Export Strategy

This study derives econometric estimates of the marginal implicit values of major characteristics of wheat in world markets for two recent time periods using pooled time-series and cross-sectional data. The results indicate that a one percentage point increase in protein content was associated with an average 0.3% price premium from 1976–77 to 1979–80. This price response had increased to an average 0.5% premium from 1980–81 to 1983–84, when there was an average world market protein premium of about U.S. $6.00 for a one percentage point increase in protein per tonne of wheat. During the latter time period, there was a premium for white wheat of nearly U.S. $16 per tonne. Wheat exported from the United States and Canada appeared to be discounted in price relative to wheat from Australia. Given the general order of the inverse relationship between yield and protein content that applies in wheat breeding, it is apparent that total revenue from Canadian wheat exports could be considerably increased by more emphasis on the development of higher-yielding wheats that are adapted to the higher-moisture regions of the Prairies. More emphasis on development of white wheats that are suited to Prairie growing conditions is also merited. La présente étude vise à obtenir des estimations économétriques à partir de valeurs marginales implicites des caractéristiques principales du blé sur les marchés mondiaux pour deux périodes de temps récentes, à l'aide de séries chronologiques regroupées et de données transversales. Les résultats obtenus montrent qu'une augmentation de un pour cent de la teneur en protéines correspond en moyenne à une bonification de 0,3% de 1976–1977 à 1979–1980. Cette réaction des prix a atteint en moyenne 0,5% de 1980–1981 a 1983–1984, alors qu'une augmentation de un pour cent de la teneur en protéines par tonne de blé donnait lieu à une bonification moyenne, sur les marchés mondiaux, d'environ 6 $ US. Pendant la dernière période, le blé blanc faisait l'objet d'une bonification de près de 16 $ US par tonne. Le blé exporté des États-Unis et du Canada semble avoir été vendu à rabais, comparativement au blé venant d'Australie. Compte tenu du rapport inverse généralement observé entre le rendement et la teneur en protéines dans un contexte de sélection végétale, il semble que le total des revenus tirés des exportations canadiennes de blé pourrait s'accroître considérablement si l'on mettait davantage l'accent sur la production de variétés à rendement plus élevé, adaptées aux régions à haut taux d'humidité des Prairies. II serait également justifié de consacrer davantage d'énergie à la production de blés blancs mieux adaptés aux conditions de croissance des Prairies.     

The Oilseed Market in Turkey

Abstract

Owing to the suitable natural resource endowments, twelve different oilrelated plants are grown in Turkey making it the largest producer in cottonseed, sunflower seed, cottonseed oil, and margarine in the Mediterranean Basin. However, Turkey has also been a net importer in both oilseeds and crude oils. It is the second largest importer in sunflower seed, sunflower oil, palm oil, corn oil, and third in soybean oil in the region. Using multicommodity partial equilibrium simulation model, this paper analyzes the future consumption and trade patterns in the Turkish oilseed market. The model suggests that the deficiencies in major meals and oils will likely to persist if the present policies are sustained. If the tariff rates are lowered to 0% for sunflower seed and to 12% for sunflower oil, the total vegetable oil disappearance as well as the imports of sunflower oil, sunflower meal, and palm oil will continue to grow.     

Price Discrimination in Russian Wheat Exports: Evidence from Firm‐level Data

Russia emerged as an important wheat exporter in recent years raising the question of how this will affect international wheat markets. In particular developing countries – the main destination of Russian wheat exports – could be harmed by aggressive pricing behaviour. This article analyses the exertion of price discrimination by Russian wheat exporting firms based on Krugman's pricing‐to‐market hypothesis. We apply Knetter's panel model to a firm‐level dataset and find evidence for price‐discriminating behaviour by Russian firms in 25 out of 61 destination countries over the period 2002–2011.     

Price Discrimination in the Context of Vertical Differentiation: An Application to Canadian Wheat Exports

The ability of the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) to price discriminate in wheat exports is examined. The conceptual model shows that the CWB's ability to exploit cost differences in pricing depends on the extent of differentiation between Canadian and U.S. wheat. This model is implemented using monthly confidential price data for exports to four markets from 1982 to 1994. The empirical results support the conclusions that (1) the CWB has market power emerging from product differentiation, (2) the CWB price discriminates across export markets, and (3) Alchian–Allen effects are important in pricing in markets valuing quality such as Japan and the United Kingdom.     

棉花价格、进口及库存的互动关系

在我国棉花流通体制的多轮改革过程中，我国棉花进口、厍存和价格三者之间呈现出周期性波动。本文基于向量自回归模型，构建1978-2002年我国棉花进口、库存和价格相互作用的动态模型，分析了棉花进口、库存和价格之间的因果关系，并利用脉冲响应函数对三者之间的互动关系进行了探讨。本文认为：棉花进口和库存的变动是引起棉花价格变动的原因，棉花价格和库存变动是引起棉花进口变动的原因，棉花价格和进口变动是引起棉花库存变动的原因。棉花价格、库存和进口三者之间的相互影响存在一定的时滞，这种时滞是导致它们出现几乎协同性的周期性波动的根本原因。     

我国粮食销售市场结构和竞争性质的分析

我国粮食主产区的县级国有粮食企业在保证粮食供给方面具有重要作用。长期以来 ,这些企业给学术界的印象是一个效率低下的垄断者。但事实上 ,进入 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,它们只是间或成为粮食收购市场上的垄断者 ,并且也从未在严格意义上完全垄断住粮源。而它们所面对的粮食销售市场则已是一个竞争十分激烈的市场 (这里主要指批发市场 )。本文通过描述我国竞争性粮食销售市场形成的历史过程 ,分析粮食销售市场的竞争程度和竞争性质 ,特别是分析粮食行政管理体制对竞争产生的影响 ,以期加深对我国粮食市场性质的认识。一、省际、省内粮食市场…     

Pricing‐To‐Market Analysis: The Case of EU Wheat Exports

The EU is a major player in the global wheat market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of EU wheat exporters using a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) analysis. Wheat is an exemplary product for testing PTM theories as it is widely and frequently traded, and largely unbranded. We estimate the relationship between export unit values and exchange rates using quarterly panel data for 11 EU export destinations for 2000–2013. Results show that there is a meaningful long‐run relationship between export unit values and exchange rates, but there is little evidence of differential mark‐ups between EU export markets. Belarus and Iceland are exceptions where exporters from the EU appear to exercise local currency price stabilisation.     

日本生鲜蔬菜进口市场及其需求弹性分析

本文运用LA/AIDS模型,估算日本生鲜蔬菜进口市场的需求弹性,探讨中国生鲜蔬菜在日本市场上的贸易地位和竞争策略。结果表明,在日本蔬菜进口市场上,中国生鲜蔬菜对日本进口总支出缺乏弹性,自价格弹性由缺乏弹性逐渐变为富有弹性,与韩国和美国蔬菜呈互补关系,与墨西哥、新西兰及其他国家和地区蔬菜呈替代关系,各地区出口量对中国出口价格变化的反应比中国生鲜蔬菜出口量对相对价格变化的反应更敏感。中国大幅度降价确实推动了出口量的增加,但并不是今后发展的最优策略,质量与安全水平的提升是维持或提高市场份额的根本途径。     

Quarterly Dynamic Relationships Between the U.S. Wheat Market and Wheat-Related Prices for Products Downstream

Abstract

A quarterly VA R econometric model of the reduced form relationships between the U.S. wheat market and prices of processed wheat-related flour, bread, and other bakery products downstream was estimated. The model then simulated under a rise in production- or import-induced increase in wheat quantity, and a decline in wheat price, to examine the dynamic effects on the U.S. wheat market and on processed wheat-related prices downstream. U.S. trade negotiators at the upcoming WTO agricultural round, Federal policy makers, farmers, and agribusiness agents should be interested in the dynamic patterns with which negotiated trade conditions, farm policy alterations, and climatic variation influence wheat quantity and price, and in turn the price of more highly processed wheat-based products downstream.     

Market Power and World Price: The Role of Asian Rice Exporters

An attempt has been made in this study to assess the market power of major Asian exporters in world rice market using standard oligopoly models. Quantity has been used as the strategic variable based on previous literature. Structural and reduced form approaches have been used. Results indicate that the major Asian rice exporters like Thailand, China, and India face a downward sloping demand curve whereas the United States does not appear to possess market power. However, the results are inconclusive about the precise market structure. The results, in the backdrop of the history of world rice markets, indicate a need for Asian exporters to rely more on trade than on domestic stocks in order to reduce the thinness of world rice market.     

Warehouse receipt financing for smallholders in developing countries: Challenges and limitations

A warehouse receipt is a document issued by a warehouse operator as evidence that a specified commodity of stated quantity and quality has been deposited at a particular warehouse by a named depositor. When backed by an appropriate legal and regulatory framework, a warehouse receipt becomes a formal financial instrument that allows the depositor to confer a security interest in the stored commodity to another party without requiring physical delivery, allowing the warehouse receipt to serve as possessory collateral for a loan. Warehouse receipt financing, in theory, permits smallholders farmers in developing countries to store their surplus safely in a modern warehouse to sell at a later date when prices are higher, while allowing them to use the stored commodity as collateral to secure a loan to finance household consumption and investment needs in the interim. However, in practice, warehouse receipt financing generally has not been embraced by smallholders in developing countries in which it is available. Here, we develop and analyze a formal stochastic dynamic model of seasonal commodity marketing that exposes the transaction cost and risk reallocation problems that undermine the benefits of warehouse receipt financing to smallholders.     

Market Transparency and Market Structure: The Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act of 1999

The premise of the Livestock Mandatory Reporting Act of 1999 is that enhanced transparency promotes competition. This article provides a theoretical study of the consequences of such transparency for the structure, conduct, and performance of the livestock industry. I conclude that the usefulness of the Act to the livestock industry may not be in the value of reported information to feeders, as the supporters of the Act claim. Rather, by forcing packers to pool information at negligible marginal cost, the Act may foster more competitive conduct in the procurement of livestock.     

Rejecting New Technology: The Case of Genetically Modified Wheat

Canada has stringent regulations covering the release of new wheat varieties, but the United States has virtually no regulations in this area. Monsanto Co. developed genetically modified (GM) spring wheat for North America, and made a commitment to the U.S. industry to release this new technology simultaneously in both Canada and the United States, or not at all. The Canadian regulatory bias against new varieties acted as a veto against GM wheat and caused Monsanto to shelve the technology in both countries in 2004. Substantial economic rents were foregone in North America due to the rejection of this new technology.     

Cointegration in China's log import demand: Price endogeneity and structural change

The monthly data of China's log import from January 2000 to December 2013 are used to estimate the import demand elasticities, with the consideration of possible price endogeneity due to China's large share of the international log market, and structural break caused by global financial crisis in 2008. To address the possible structural break, cointegration tests allowing for a deterministic shift in the level of the variables are employed, and a two-stage estimation with top-down sequential elimination algorithm is performed on the restricted subset VECM. The results demonstrate that there exists a long-run cointegration relationship between China's log import and the explanatory variables. The import elasticities of macroeconomic development and import price are around 0.76 and −0.81, respectively. Other things being equal, the structural break would induce a 29.6% decline in China's log import. All the above parameters are significant at the 1% risk level. Furthermore, the contribution decomposition analysis suggests that China's macroeconomic development plays a dominant role in determining its log import, which implies that China's log import would not increase as quickly as before, given that its economy is shifting into the “New Normal State”. This conjecture is supported by our simulations, which indicate that, by 2020, the growth rate of China's log import will be lower than it has been in the past and the import volume would be approximately 1.1–1.6 times greater compared to imports in 2013.     

CAP Reforms in the 1990s and their Price and Welfare Implications: The Case of Wheat

We use a nonlinear commodity market model to assess, theoretically and empirically, the impacts of recent reforms of the CAP on prices and economic welfare in the EU. The empirical analysis is based on an aggregate structural econometric model of the EU wheat economy and its links to the rest of the world. Instability issues are also investigated. Impacts of CAP reforms on the variance of domestic and world prices are analysed and a Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate uncertainty in the model's welfare computations. Recent reforms led to a net welfare gain within the EU during the period 1993–2000. Additional budgetary costs are less than the welfare gains of consumers and producers. Producers gained as lower price support was overcompensated by additional direct payments.     

2002年稻谷市场供求与价格走向

自１９９７年中国稻米产量创纪录的达到２．００７亿ｔ后,开始逐年下降,特别是２０００年政府早籼稻收购退出保护价后,下降趋势更加明显。１９９７年全国稻谷收获面积为３２１３万ｈｍ２,到２００１年已降至２８５８万ｈｍ２,减幅达１１%,其中早籼稻的调减数量最多,占调减量的４９．３%。据美国农业部的预测,２００２年中国的稻谷收获面积可能再度下调