Conditional OLS minimum variance hedge ratios

The paper presents a new methodology to estimate time dependent minimum variance hedge ratios. The so‐called conditional OLS hedge ratio modifies the static OLS approach to incorporate conditioning information. The ability of the conditional OLS hedge ratio to minimize the risk of a hedged portfolio is compared to conventional static and dynamic approaches, such as the naïve hedge, the roll‐over OLS hedge, and the bivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The paper concludes that, both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample, the conditional OLS hedge ratio reduces the basis risk of an equity portfolio better than the alternatives conventionally used in risk management. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:945–964, 2004     

On a Mean—Generalized Semivariance Approach to Determining the Hedge Ratio

A new mean‐risk hedge ratio based on the concept of generalized semivariance (GSV) is proposed. The proposed mean‐GSV (M‐GSV) hedge ratio is consistent with the GSV‐based risk–return model developed by Fishburn (1977), Bawa (1975, 1978), and Harlow and Rao (1989). The M‐GSV hedge ratio can also be considered an extension of the GSV‐minimizing hedge ratio considered by De Jong, De Roon, and Veld (1997) and Lien and Tse (1998, 2000). The M‐GSV hedge ratio is estimated for Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 futures and compared to six other widely used hedge ratios. Because all the hedge ratios considered are known to converge to the minimum‐variance (Johnson) hedge ratio under joint normality and martingale conditions, tests for normality and martingale conditions are carried out. The empirical results indicate that the joint normality and martingale hypotheses do not hold for the S&P 500 futures. The M‐GSV hedge ratio varies less than the GSV hedge ratio for low and relevant levels of risk aversion. Furthermore, the M‐GSV hedge ratio converges to a value different from the values of the other hedge ratios for higher values of risk aversion. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21: 581–598, 2001     

Learning by exporting: Lessons from high-technology SMEs

We investigate the learning by exporting hypothesis by examining the effect of exporting on the subsequent innovation performance of a sample of high-technology SMEs based in the UK. We find evidence of learning by exporting, but the pattern of this effect is complex. Exporting helps high-tech SMEs innovate subsequently, but does not make them more innovation intensive. There is evidence that consistent exposure to export markets helps firms overcome the innovation hurdle, but that there is a positive scale effect of exposure to export markets which allows innovative firms to sell more of their new-to-market products on entering export markets. Service sector firms are able to reap the benefits of exposure to export markets at an earlier (entry) stage of the internationalization process than are manufacturing firms. Innovation-intensive firms exhibit a different pattern of entry to and exit from export markets from low-intensity innovators, and this is reflected in different effects of exporting.     

A Note on Exports and Hedging Exchange Rate Risks: The Multi‐Country Case

This study examines the behavior of an exporting firm that exports to two foreign countries, each of which has its own currency. Hedging is imperfect in that the firm can only trade one of the two foreign currencies forward. Compared to the case wherein hedging is perfect in that both foreign currencies can be traded forward, the firm is shown to produce less in the home country. Furthermore, the firm is shown to export more (less) to the foreign country whose currency can (cannot) be traded forward. The firm's optimal forward position is an over‐hedge or an under‐hedge, depending on whether the spot exchange rates are positively or negatively correlated in the sense of expectation dependence, respectively. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 33:1191–1196, 2013     

Export Premium,Self‐selection and Learning‐by‐Exporting: Evidence from Chinese Matched Firms

This study empirically focuses on examining the hypotheses of export premium (exporters are more productive than non‐exporters), selection‐into‐exporting (more productive firms are ones that tend to become exporters) and learning‐by‐exporting (new export market entrants have higher productivity growth than non‐exporters in the post‐entry period). The propensity score matching method is used to adjust for observable differences of firm characteristics between exporters and non‐exporters, allowing an adequate ‘like‐for‐like’ comparison. We also use the difference‐in‐difference matching estimator to capture the magnitude of different productivity growth between matched new export market entrants and non‐exporters in the post‐entry period up to two years. Drawing on 2,340 Chinese firms in the period 2000–02, we find evidence for export premium and self‐selection, and once the firm has entered the export market there is additional productivity growth from the learning effect, in particular in the second year after entry.     

Dealing with downside risk in a multi‐commodity setting: A case for a “Texas hedge”?

This study analyzes the problem of multi‐commodity hedging from the downside risk perspective. The lower partial moments (LPM₂)‐minimizing hedge ratios for the stylized hedging problem of a typical Texas panhandle feedlot operator are calculated and compared with hedge ratios implied by the conventional minimum‐variance (MV) criterion. A kernel copula is used to model the joint distributions of cash and futures prices for commodities included in the model. The results are consistent with the findings in the single‐commodity case in that the MV approach leads to over‐hedging relative to the LPM₂‐based hedge. An interesting and somewhat unexpected result is that minimization of a downside risk criterion in a multi‐commodity setting may lead to a “Texas hedge” (i.e. speculation) being an optimal strategy for at least one commodity. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:290–304, 2010     

Entry,trade costs,and international business cycles

Are firm entry and fixed exporting costs relevant for understanding the international transmission of business cycles? We revisit this question using a model that includes entry, selection to exporting activity, physical capital accumulation and endogenous labor supply. We determine that once the stochastic process for exogenous productivity is calibrated to consider the endogenous dynamics in TFP created by the number of firms and the time series volatility of entry is calibrated to the data, our model yields minimal departures from the Backus et al. (1992) benchmark. The richer model shares all of the successes of the previous model in terms of the volatilities of aggregate quantities, as well as its failures, in terms of replicating patterns of international co-movement and the volatility of international relative prices.     

局部地区冲突冲击了中国石油进口吗

文章利用1992～2018年中国从80个国家石油进口的非平衡面板数据,实证考察出口国发生局部地区冲突对中国石油进口的影响,并对其异质性特征和可能的影响机制予以识别。研究表明,出口国局部地区冲突会给中国石油进口带来显著的负向冲击,该影响主要是局部地区冲突引起出口国石油产量下降所致。局部地区冲突不会通过国际油价和中国石油对外直接投资影响中国石油进口。石油资源禀赋和"一带一路"倡议能够在一定程度上对冲局部冲突对中国石油进口的负向影响。局部地区冲突对中国石油进口的冲击具有明显的阶段性特征,并且随着中国石油进口依存度的攀升逐渐增强。在当前国际油市深度调整的现实背景下,该研究为深刻认识一系列国际重大突发事件对中国石油进口的影响、保障中国石油进口安全提供了科学借鉴。     

Entry,trade costs,and international business cycles

Are firm entry and fixed exporting costs relevant for understanding the international transmission of business cycles? We revisit this question using a model that includes entry, selection to exporting activity, physical capital accumulation and endogenous labor supply. We determine that once the stochastic process for exogenous productivity is calibrated to consider the endogenous dynamics in TFP created by the number of firms and the time series volatility of entry is calibrated to the data, our model yields minimal departures from the Backus et al. (1992) benchmark. The richer model shares all of the successes of the previous model in terms of the volatilities of aggregate quantities, as well as its failures, in terms of replicating patterns of international co-movement and the volatility of international relative prices.     

Hedging under model misspecification: All risk factors are equal,but some are more equal than others …

It is often difficult to distinguish among different option pricing models that consider stochastic volatility and/or jumps based on a cross‐section of European option prices. This can result in model misspecification. We analyze the hedging error induced by model misspecification and show that it can be economically significant in the cases of a delta hedge, a minimum‐variance hedge, and a delta‐vega hedge. Furthermore, we explain the surprisingly good performance of a simple ad‐hoc Black‐Scholes hedge. We compare realized hedging errors (an incorrect hedge model is applied) and anticipated hedging errors (the hedge model is the true one) and find that there are substantial differences between the two distributions, particularly depending on whether stochastic volatility is included in the hedge model. Therefore, hedging errors can be useful for identifying model misspecification. Furthermore, model risk has severe implications for risk measurement and can lead to a significant misestimation, specifically underestimation, of the risk to which a hedged position is exposed. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Country-of-Destination and Export Marketing Strategy:

As changes in the economic and political environment in many developing countries bring opportunities for multinational corporations, many U.S. and other MNCs find that they have little experience with marketing and exporting to such countries, having focused mainly on developed-country markets. In addition, there has been little research which has investigated issues relating to marketing in LDCs. This study explored these issues and found that different marketing strategies are used by U.S. companies which export to developing countries as opposed to those which market to developed countries, thereby highlighting the importance of taking the country-of-destination into account when planning export marketing strategies. In addition, a separate analysis of firms which export mainly to developing-countries revealed that direct distribution, the number of countries exported to, product standardization, and a focus on price are negatively associated with market share. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

The Risk-Return Relationship of Pension Funds With Investments in Hedge Funds

This article investigates if investing in local hedge funds improves the risk-return relationship of Brazilian pension funds. Investment in hedge funds by pension funds is growing elsewhere, with an increasing utilization of a multiplicity of hedge funds specialized in specific strategies or niches. We analyzed the performance of a typical pension fund allocation in Brazil as well as alternate allocations that included hedge funds. We used robust estimates of the covariance matrix to mitigate the errors in variables that are problematic in the inputs of the optimization. The results show that hedge funds improve the risk-return relationship of the typical pension fund allocation, contribute to a higher accumulated return at the end of a one-year period, and reduce portfolio rebalancing. Investments in hedge funds ease reaching the typical 6% annual return target with less risk exposure.     

生产率与出口企业市场进入次序的双向影响--来自中国工业企业的证据

本文以出口企业的市场进入次序为落脚点,利用2000－2006年中国海关数据库和中国工业企业数据库的海量匹配数据,对出口企业的市场进入次序与企业生产率的增速之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明,高生产率企业更倾向于充当开拓者,而低生产率企业倾向于充当跟随者,这种自选择作用在制成品出口中得以彰显,但在初级产品和农产品出口中并不显著;短期内跟随者的生产率增速高于开拓者,但在长期开拓者的先发优势愈发显著,其生产率增速明显优于跟随者。     

Political risk and the internationalization of firms: An empirical study of Canadian‐based export and FDI firms

Political risk analysis primarily receives attention for foreign direct investment (FDI) but only rarely for exporting. We examine how exporters and foreign direct investors evaluate the relative importance of political risk factors. We provide a rationale for exporters to evaluate political risk factors for FDI and for foreign direct investors to evaluate political risk factors for exporting. Survey data were collected from Canadian exporters and foreign direct investors and capture the distinctive nature of salient factors for exporting and FDI. We offer unique insights on the evolutionary character of political risk that are of practical value for both exporting and FDI. Copyright © 2007 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entry liberalization and export performance: a theoretical analysis in a multi-market oligopoly model

This paper is an attempt to demonstrate how the entry (costless) of firms in an industry may have a dramatic effect on exports from an industry in a country. The results have tremendous implications for LDCs suffering from resource and BOP constraints but having reservoirs of cheap labor. The welfare effects of such entry liberalization policy (or subsidy) can be stated from the Bhagwati theorem that a reduction in an only (single) distortion is necessarily welfare improving by reducing monopoly or oligopoly distortions. However, we have shown that the entry liberalization policy is welfare superior to an equivalent subsidy policy where equivalent is defined in terms of the impact on exports. As a by product, we have also shown how one can integrate the oligopoly models of trade with the general oligopoly literature. The results on the limiting behaviour of an open economy oligopoly model extend the standard results in the oligopoly theory in a closed economy.     

入世十年来中国与LDC国家贸易新发展及展望

中国与最不发达国家间的经贸关系日益紧密,但是针对中国在这些国家的"新殖民主义"活动的指责声日益高涨,在中国加入世界贸易组织十周年之际,文章通过对比分析中国、美国以及欧盟与最不发达国家间的贸易商品结构的演变,发现中国自LDC国家的进口商品结构严重偏向于资源类商品的事实,探讨了中国在未来经贸合作中更应注重对LDC国家自我发展能力的培养以及中方的投资开发行为应遵循的原则,从而构建新型的双边经贸合作前景。     

Cultural Distance and Future Entry Mode Choice of Brazilian MNEs

We analyze the relationship between current cultural distance (CD) and future entry mode choice of Brazilian multinational enterprises (MNEs). We use the GLOBE Project in order to extend the distance literature into the entry mode context. Results demonstrate that high levels of CD have a negative impact on future expansions via acquisition and a positive impact on exporting. These relationships are moderated by size, such that large firms are affected less by CD than small firms. Finally, CD values have a greater impact on future entry mode preference than CD practices.     

Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the fundamentals of safe haven currencies, which are those currencies that provide an hedge for a reference portfolio of risky assets, conditional on shocks to global risk aversion. We analyse a large panel of 52 currencies in advanced and emerging countries over almost 25 years of data. We find that only a few factors are robustly associated to a safe haven status, most notably the net foreign asset position, an indicator of external vulnerability, and whether currencies have been a good hedge in the past. In addition, the currencies of large, less financially open economies are a good hedge against global risk aversion shocks. By contrast, the level of the interest rate spread vs. the US is significant only during the latest crisis. Finally, we find some evidence of non-linearity as the importance of the fundamentals is stronger during crisis times.     

The WTO and entry modes in China

For years, multinational enterprises (MNEs) vying for the Chinese market used joint ventures (JVs) as an entry mode. However, there has been a growing frustration with the JV mode. It is reported that MNEs are increasingly opting for wholly owned subsidiaries for better control. This article examines the recent development of the business environment in China. It concludes that there are now real entry options for MNEs, including exporting, JVs, wholly owned subsidiaries, and acquisitions. China's accession into the World Trade Organization (WTO) will accelerate the change process and make non‐JV options even more viable. A few decision rules for choosing an entry mode in China are discussed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Static hedging and model risk for barrier options

The article investigates how sensitive different dynamic and static hedge strategies for barrier options are to model risk. It is found that using plain‐vanilla options to hedge offers considerable improvements over usual Δ hedges. Further, it is shown that the hedge portfolios involving options are relatively more sensitive to model risk, but that the degree of misspecification sensitivity is robust across commonly used models. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:449–463, 2006