Tourism expenditure model — a functional planning and policy-making tool

The Tourism Expenditures Model (TEM) is a short-run systems model which at both the national and regional level can provide a detailed analysis of the nature of tourism-related expenditures. The tourism-related sectors covered are transportation, accommodation, meals and beverages, recreation and entertainment and other purchases disaggregated with respect to time, region and economic subsector. The model is intended to help in the evaluation and planning of specific tourism proposals and in the development of the industry as a whole.     

Tourism forecasting and the policymaker: Criteria of usefulness

This article is a sequel to one by the author in the September 1982 Issue of Tourism Management in which the question of what futures research could contribute to tourism policy was raised. Here the subject is explored further and a comparison of various forecasting techniques is used to investigate how far forecasting is and could be useful in supporting tourism policies.     

Holiday destinations: Understanding the travel choices of Irish tourists

This paper uses a McFadden choice model to measure the importance of destination, household and seasonal characteristics to the tourism destination choices of Irish households. The analysis is based on quarterly survey data of Irish households' travel destinations between 2000 and 2006. In total, some 55,000 holiday trips were observed. Destination characteristics such as temperature, GDP and coastline are found to positively influence choice probabilities, while population density and distance have a negative effect on choice. Household-specific characteristics such as the number of children and people over 60 in a household are found to be important. We also identify differences in preferences across seasons and a change over time of the effect of destination country GDP on Irish holiday destination choices.     

Tourism as a community industry—an ecological model of tourism development

Tourism can be a far-reaching agent of change, yet too often planning for the industry is based solely on isolated economic criteria. Here it is argued that tourism is essentially resource-based and by ignoring social and ecological implications the industry is in danger of undermining its very existence. For the industry and the destination community to benefit a mutually symbiotic relationship should be developed, a relationship modelled on an ecosystem framework.     

The Delphi technique in the measurement of tourism market potential: The case of Nova Scotia

In order to plan for the development of tourism in Nova Scotia it has been necessary to gather information and opinions on the industry on a more detailed scale than has hitherto been done. Here the Delphi technique is used to gather data on tourism research, on future impacts of tourism and to strengthen a regional data base, all of which are intended to act as an effective policy-making tool in solving management and planning problems in the tourism and hospitality industry. The impact of new technology (in particular the CHECK-INN system) and training needs are discussed in detail.     

基于BP神经网络和ARIMA组合模型的中国入境游客量预测

游客量的预测和分析是旅游规划与管理的基础性、关键性工作.目前,游客量预测主要采用基于传统研究方法或人工神经网络技术的单项预测方法.近年来的研究表明,组合预测方法比单项预测具有更高的预测精度.本文提出了一种基于BP神经网络和ARIMA组合模型的游客量预测新方法,对中国入境旅游人次数的变化趋势进行了综合分析与预测,预测结果表明这种方法相对于单一的预测方法具有更高的精度,该模型在旅游预测中的应用是可行、有效的.     

上海市入境旅游市场影响因素分析与预测——以德国、法国、英国、美国与泰国客源国为例

入境旅游是衡量一个国家知名度、影响力和旅游发展水平的主要因素,也是赚取外汇和旅游收入的重要路径。上海是外国游客入境重要的目的地,也是中国最大的入境游客中转站。文章分析了德国、法国、英国、美国、泰国五个上海主要入境旅游客源国2004年第一季度至2018年第三季度的数据,运用计量经济学方法建模,并实证分析了上海入境旅游需求的影响因素。研究表明,口碑效应、客源地的收入水平与上海入境旅游需求正相关;上海入境旅游具有较大的季节波动特点,冬夏两季入境游客数量减少;世博会对上海入境旅游拉动作用较大。同时,对德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年的旅游季度需求进行了预测,预测发现,德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年都有较大增长,特别是泰国市场的年均增长率达到4%。     

Forecasting tourism revisited

This article examines the accuracy and efficiency of forecasting techniques by applying time series regression to forecasting visitor arrivals. Past studies have shown that simpler time series techniques perform as well or better than complex forecasting models. An assessment of visitor forecasts developed at regional, destination and individual market levels suggests that time series regression performs well in producing annual forecasts of visitors which can also serve as a baseline for evaluating the net returns from applying more complex techniques. Tourism managers should appreciate the usefulness of simpler formal methods in developing forecasts of visitors.     

Marketing Aspects of Consumer Purchasing Behavior and Customer Satisfaction Aboard the Royal Viking Queen

This article is the result of onboard marketing research performed for Royal Viking Line aboard the Royal Viking Queen during the summer of 1993. Via focus groups, attributes of customer purchasing behavior and customer satisfaction are examined. The findings conclude that Royal Viking Line patrons are pleased with their cruise experience.     

Short-term forecasting of Japanese tourist inflow to South Korea using Google trends data

We utilize the Internet search data from Google Trends to provide short-term forecasts for the inflow of Japanese tourists to South Korea. We construct the Google variable in a systematic way by combining keywords to minimize mean squared or mean absolute forecasting errors. We augment the Google variable to the standard time-series forecasting models and compare their forecasting accuracies. We find that Google-augmented models perform much better than the standard time-series models in terms of short-term forecasting accuracy. In particular, Google models show better out-of-sample forecasting performance than in-sample forecasting.     

Strategic foresight for (coastal) urban tourism market complexity: The case of Bournemouth

This paper discusses an approach to evaluate and analyse strategic planning in multi-functional complexities of coastal urban areas with conflicts regarding leisure space which restricts the diversity of tourism segments using an urban locale. The paper proposes a holistic and multi-faceted systems approach to analysing such multi-purpose use of urban spaces with a case study of Bournemouth where the needs of overseas language students and high spending tourists can present an interesting challenge to urban planners. The systems approach advocates integration and alliances in investment incentives to help identify alternative urban use strategies in tourism and leisure contexts which allows for re-branding of an urban area whilst extending the product offer.